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Since lockdowns and masks are not going to eradicate the virus, and we have no vaccine, it seems like this will keep erupting in waves.
In the attempts to 'flatten the curve' as they say, which basically means slowing the spread at least enough so that hospitals and medical staff don't get overwhelmed, and the lack of PPE keeps us all from being able to combat this (other than staying locked down), ultimately once conditions are relaxed and people become allowed to resume activities, the virus will again continue to accelerate. This goes until we either have a vaccine or enough herd immunity develops where the rate of spread slows on its own. Usually you need at least 60% of the population to be exposed and immunity to be built up. With lockdowns this will be slowed such that it will be economically unfeasible.
Thus reality is the only thing being 'flattened' is the economy . With these relatively short lockdowns, The business failures that will result, commercial loan defaults across the board, and many rent and mortgage payments going unpaid, this will make the 08 financial crisis look like a walk in the park.
For example, JP Morgan has HALTED all non government guaranteed loans. Think about how serious that is.
Not only are the small business loans that are being backed by the government not able to be processed quickly, (payments after loan approval are being now talked about further delays) but even those that applied and were spot on with everything perfect, are being told they will likely have to wait '4 weeks' to receive the money. On top of weeks now that they have already waited to get to this point of submitting for loans.
If you are a small or medium sized business, and want a loan for anything other than wages, you are screwed. You can't get one from any bank. At least not from the likes of JPM, and many strong sources like them. So Going into alternative venues for money is fraught with mega risk, and very high costs.
For those not aware, JPMorgan is THE largest commercial lender in the country. They have shut down making any loans besides these government backed loans. Think about the implications. They have shut down their entire bread and butter business. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall for many businesses once they get past (use up) the 8 weeks of these wage (government backed) loans.
The only reason JPM would cease issuing those type of loans is if they expect a default tsunami to hit, coupled with a full-blown recession (if not actually a depression) that wipes out the value of any and all assets pledged to collateralize the loans.[Their thinking likely is "why issue loans that will default in months if not weeks, just as bankruptcy courts fill up with millions of cases ??" (assuming the coronavirus clears out by then, as the alternative is simply unthinkable - a default tsunami without any functioning Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 process) when JPM can simply stick to the 100% risk-free issuance of government-guaranteed small-business loans which pay a handsome 1% interest.
This is now what the majority of our nation's small and medium size businesses face, unless they're extremely cash rich with very deep pockets and no debt. These businesses actually employ more than 50% of the nation's work force.
We need to think beyond 'flattening curves.' And fast.
In the attempts to 'flatten the curve' as they say, which basically means slowing the spread at least enough so that hospitals and medical staff don't get overwhelmed, and the lack of PPE keeps us all from being able to combat this (other than staying locked down), ultimately once conditions are relaxed and people become allowed to resume activities, the virus will again continue to accelerate. This goes until we either have a vaccine or enough herd immunity develops where the rate of spread slows on its own. Usually you need at least 60% of the population to be exposed and immunity to be built up. With lockdowns this will be slowed such that it will be economically unfeasible.
Thus reality is the only thing being 'flattened' is the economy . With these relatively short lockdowns, The business failures that will result, commercial loan defaults across the board, and many rent and mortgage payments going unpaid, this will make the 08 financial crisis look like a walk in the park.
For example, JP Morgan has HALTED all non government guaranteed loans. Think about how serious that is.
Not only are the small business loans that are being backed by the government not able to be processed quickly, (payments after loan approval are being now talked about further delays) but even those that applied and were spot on with everything perfect, are being told they will likely have to wait '4 weeks' to receive the money. On top of weeks now that they have already waited to get to this point of submitting for loans.
If you are a small or medium sized business, and want a loan for anything other than wages, you are screwed. You can't get one from any bank. At least not from the likes of JPM, and many strong sources like them. So Going into alternative venues for money is fraught with mega risk, and very high costs.
For those not aware, JPMorgan is THE largest commercial lender in the country. They have shut down making any loans besides these government backed loans. Think about the implications. They have shut down their entire bread and butter business. Obviously, they see the writing on the wall for many businesses once they get past (use up) the 8 weeks of these wage (government backed) loans.
The only reason JPM would cease issuing those type of loans is if they expect a default tsunami to hit, coupled with a full-blown recession (if not actually a depression) that wipes out the value of any and all assets pledged to collateralize the loans.[Their thinking likely is "why issue loans that will default in months if not weeks, just as bankruptcy courts fill up with millions of cases ??" (assuming the coronavirus clears out by then, as the alternative is simply unthinkable - a default tsunami without any functioning Chapter 11 or Chapter 7 process) when JPM can simply stick to the 100% risk-free issuance of government-guaranteed small-business loans which pay a handsome 1% interest.
This is now what the majority of our nation's small and medium size businesses face, unless they're extremely cash rich with very deep pockets and no debt. These businesses actually employ more than 50% of the nation's work force.
We need to think beyond 'flattening curves.' And fast.
Handlebars
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Actually, the virus will respond to evolutionary pressures. Different treatment of the outbreak will result in different response.
Mr. Coffee
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- A Demented Corner of the North Cascades
Yes, we do. But I don't know exactly what can be done.
I doubt that international leisure travel is going to come back for years. Possibly decades.
Nobody is going to go on a cruise ship, or for that matter visit NYC or Disneyland even if the stay-at-home orders are lifted. I personally doubt people are going to flock to restaurants or go to concerts either. Also, under the circumstances, most people aren't going to purchase a new car or a new home.
I think the best you can hope for, under the circumstances, is to have the economy pull itself along by its fingernails for the next 12 months or so. At a bare minimum you will need extensive (much more extensive than we have now) testing with very fast turnaround times and an army of people doing contact tracing and taking the temperatures of people in public. I don't know how we're going to pay for that or who is going to organize it.
D
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To re-start supply chains, and keep businesses from going under, it may require the Fed to directly inject money into small and medium size business bank accounts, bypassing lenders altogether for about 6 months, or until cash flows are kicking in. The consumer can't be the catalyst here, and as you suspect it's going to take awhile for consumers to be ready to get back into certain activities. Employers will have to re hire majority workers back, and if they wait for demand, well that won't happen until workers have a paycheck and are confident they can pay their fundamental bills, such as utilities, rent, food. The Fed has already gone all out liquifying the system with more than $6 trillion since September when banks were having many issues pre virus. So what's another $10 to $20 trillion to them anyway ? Global debt already exceeds $270 trillion. Apparently that hasn't mattered to anyone in the past decade. The key is cash flow and the system has to be re-started and the normal credit system has ceased to function. The globe and world trade is dependent upon a continuously flowing cash flow and credit system, uninterrupted. It's been severely interrupted. And with the world's primary reserve currency being the US dollar, representing more than 60% of all reserve currencies, it HAS to be the Fed to be the one to re start this system. It's not evident markets have quite come to that stage of recognition. It may not be evident until lockdowns are lifted, and businesses try to actually fully re-engage, and then it's apparent liquidity is not sufficient and credit chains are broken, which prevents supply chains from un freezing. For all intents, every single bank will look at every company, just like JPM is, and say with zero revenues and no visibility, it's too risky to lend without massive back stop. But it likely goes deeper with businesses looking at each other the same way with the same caution and fear of risk, and probably many wanting payments upfront, not knowing whether the supplier will go belly up. Things like net 30 or 90 day Terms may be a thing of the past for the foreseeable future.
Bottom line is you'll never understand or believe all you need is Jesus .Until all you have to turn to left is Jesus
Then you will know Truth : Until then What a man thinks he is 
steve mercier
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Mr. Coffee
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All of those things will help (referring to Mike's most recent post), but they are certainly not going to be enough.
Given that in the US (and it isn't that different in Europe, Canada, or Australia) consumer spending represents about 65% of the economy, I can't see how those measures get us back to where we were, or even within sight of it.
I think the world has changed. We don't have a time machine and can't go back.
Like I said, I think international leisure travel is over. Probably for many years and possibly for the rest of our lives.
People who are able to work are often working from home. I don't think that is going to change all the way back even after this is over. So I suspect a lot of professional white-collar jobs will be done from home and depend on groupware and teleconferencing. This will also destroy business travel. And commuting. And a lot of commercial real estate. Between this and leisure travel airlines and aircraft manufacturers are probably doomed as well.
Bricks-and-mortar stores, already under severe pressure, are going to be under even more pressure. A lot more companies will be forced to bypass any dealer network (and the investment in that network) and begin selling direct-to-customer. What bricks-and-mortar stores that are left are going to have to make their money on service.
People are going to use delivery as much as possible for groceries and a lot of other home consumer items. The line between a lot of delivered groceries and restaurant takeout is going to get very blurry (consider that about half the square footage in a typical suburban Whole Foods is basically a cafeteria already).
In the midst of all this chaos, there are certainly going to be opportunities as well. But a lot of people, and probably most people, are going to get brutally screwed.
Given that in the US (and it isn't that different in Europe, Canada, or Australia) consumer spending represents about 65% of the economy, I can't see how those measures get us back to where we were, or even within sight of it.
I think the world has changed. We don't have a time machine and can't go back.
Like I said, I think international leisure travel is over. Probably for many years and possibly for the rest of our lives.
People who are able to work are often working from home. I don't think that is going to change all the way back even after this is over. So I suspect a lot of professional white-collar jobs will be done from home and depend on groupware and teleconferencing. This will also destroy business travel. And commuting. And a lot of commercial real estate. Between this and leisure travel airlines and aircraft manufacturers are probably doomed as well.
Bricks-and-mortar stores, already under severe pressure, are going to be under even more pressure. A lot more companies will be forced to bypass any dealer network (and the investment in that network) and begin selling direct-to-customer. What bricks-and-mortar stores that are left are going to have to make their money on service.
People are going to use delivery as much as possible for groceries and a lot of other home consumer items. The line between a lot of delivered groceries and restaurant takeout is going to get very blurry (consider that about half the square footage in a typical suburban Whole Foods is basically a cafeteria already).
In the midst of all this chaos, there are certainly going to be opportunities as well. But a lot of people, and probably most people, are going to get brutally screwed.
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steve mercier
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Handlebars
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Viruses and Evolution
The battle between the human immune system and pathogens involves continual mutation, adaptation, and evolution. Influenza viruses and HIV provide unique examples of these processes.
www.historyofvaccines.org
Hopefully you're kidding. If not this is about as likely as us running totally out of oil by the year 2000 or climate change wiping out the human race. Here is what is much more likely. Like all pandemics this will eventually spread to most of the population and give us immunity. True, it will kill some people but it's not a huge number and unlike the Spanish Flu which killed the most productive part of the population most of the ones who die will be old people and those with compromised immune systems so in a way (don't kill the messenger I'm part of this group myself) it actually culls the weakest. Yes, the economy has been badly hurt by this stupid over reaction and shutting it down without any thought to the consequences, but when people realize that they can't count on government handouts forever they'll get back to work. By the way, when they start counting the number of deaths from this I hope they count all the people who died needlessly from the knee-jerk overreaction. The number one killer in the US are heart attack and stroke victims - yet hospital addmissions for these issues has gone down by over 60% since all of our resources are being spent on stupidities. A lot of these people could be saved by timely medical care, but that's no longer an option since we're trying to "flatten the curve". The number of annual deaths from heart attacks/strokes in the US is over 600,000, but by all means let's let them die so that we can save old people and people with no immune systems who would have died from anything - be it the flu, a cold or covid 19.
Feliz
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I saw an interview with that Doctor from South Korea and its the best thing I've seen yet on the Coronavirus, very enlightening. I forget his name but it's on utube.
Handlebars
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A little history of "Dr" Tedros' history and action on the pandemic
Handlebars
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The top expert in the world has results of testing 1061 patients with Hydroxychloroquine cocktail seeing mortality at 0.5 %
92% had excellent outcomes. Other information was gathered regarding lesser good outcomes for people already on other medications for other medical issues
92% had excellent outcomes. Other information was gathered regarding lesser good outcomes for people already on other medications for other medical issues
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Browneye
Well-Known Member
So, evidently Canada Free Press are quacks...too bloody bad. The real numbers are not even in the same realm as other causes of death worldwide. I smell a rat.
canadafreepress.com
After Four Years of Democrat Treachery, I Smell a Corona Virus Rat
After Four Years of Democrat Treachery, I Smell a Corona Virus Rat, Trump, Obama, Fauci, Birx, Nancy Pelosi, Adam Schiff, Hillary Clinton
canadafreepress.com
harryS
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Sad case of a lady from Texas posting on Facebook her belief in the virus hoax, and dying of Covid two weeks later. I had to check to make sure it wasn't made up.
tomjasz
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- Minnesnowta
No political BS just good science. The name calling and single source comments are are unfortunate.
Chancelucky2
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I went to Worldometers. info. org (your source) and it's listing the number of deaths by coronavirus as 107,000 plus since January.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ note the huge jump in reported deaths since March 25.
The seasonal flu count is 137,000 (I assume this count excludes covid 19 deaths) https://www.worldometers.info/
The difficulty here is that contagious diseases are harder to compare on a "to date" basis, because the spread of Covid 19 hasnt' peaked, while the seasonal flu count most likely
has.
More important when it comes to a contagious disease, a well executed and conceived containment strategy can minimize the ultimate harm, but that's quite different from the potential danger.
For example there were something like 13,000 ebola deaths, but the potential mortality numbers would have been much worse had there not been relatively effective containment measures.
To me, the trick is that with a contagious disease and exponential growth, you determine what you do by looking to the future rather than to what's happened up to this point. For example, if something doubles
each day, it may take a while to go from 1 case to 10,000 cases (roughly 13 1/2 days), but it takes one day to go from 10,000 to 20,000.
It's kind of scary to me that there have been more than 400,000 deaths due to HIV/AIDS this year after 30+ years of improvement in information, containment, and treatment/medication.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ note the huge jump in reported deaths since March 25.
The seasonal flu count is 137,000 (I assume this count excludes covid 19 deaths) https://www.worldometers.info/
The difficulty here is that contagious diseases are harder to compare on a "to date" basis, because the spread of Covid 19 hasnt' peaked, while the seasonal flu count most likely
has.
More important when it comes to a contagious disease, a well executed and conceived containment strategy can minimize the ultimate harm, but that's quite different from the potential danger.
For example there were something like 13,000 ebola deaths, but the potential mortality numbers would have been much worse had there not been relatively effective containment measures.
To me, the trick is that with a contagious disease and exponential growth, you determine what you do by looking to the future rather than to what's happened up to this point. For example, if something doubles
each day, it may take a while to go from 1 case to 10,000 cases (roughly 13 1/2 days), but it takes one day to go from 10,000 to 20,000.
It's kind of scary to me that there have been more than 400,000 deaths due to HIV/AIDS this year after 30+ years of improvement in information, containment, and treatment/medication.
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BlackHand
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- Western WA
@Browneye Eh, if you want to stipulate the underlying data is reasonably accurate then fine.
I would question why an editorial/opinion piece published on April 10th would use a chart with data only going through 3/25. Lazy or maybe another reason?...
As Chancelucky2 points out, the current death count is over 7500 more than you posted. That's about 8 hours worth of cancer deaths. Absolute best case scenario is we are peaking at about 1/3 of the daily death rate of cancer with about 6 weeks of wind down ahead of us.
What scares me is that my state has reported more cases and deaths than India which has a population of 1.38 billion. It's just starting to ramp up there, and I don't think they'll be able to lockdown as completely as China did.
I would question why an editorial/opinion piece published on April 10th would use a chart with data only going through 3/25. Lazy or maybe another reason?...
As Chancelucky2 points out, the current death count is over 7500 more than you posted. That's about 8 hours worth of cancer deaths. Absolute best case scenario is we are peaking at about 1/3 of the daily death rate of cancer with about 6 weeks of wind down ahead of us.
What scares me is that my state has reported more cases and deaths than India which has a population of 1.38 billion. It's just starting to ramp up there, and I don't think they'll be able to lockdown as completely as China did.
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