30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Handlebars]

Selection bias.

The only cleanish data we have on mortality rates is the ruby princess. 3700 passengers ( admittedly an elderly population) , 710 known to be infected but there were still a few hundred not tested.

11 dead, about 80 currently waiting to discover what the real mortality rate for covid is and 10 of those are critical.

The rest of the worlds data is junk. Take Australia - in the early days you could only be tested if you had come from wuhan, then overseas, then " close contact" with a known case, or perhaps work in a " high risk" industry ( unless you work in a supermarket...lets not scare those workers with the truth )

Anyone watching death rates is looking at 3/4 week old irrelevant and dirty data . Do you wait until the cars in front of you have dead passengers, or hit the brakes when the lights turn red? Oh, and before hitting the accelerator...look for traffic who ignored those other lights....

Selection bias is the reason UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

 

[Handlebars]

Anyone watching death rates is looking at 3/4 week old irrelevant and dirty data.

Are you assessing deaths to on average be occurring in week 3 or 4 after testing positive?

 

[PDoz]

Selection bias is the reason UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

How sick do you have to be to get swabbed in the uk, and how do you get declared " recovered"? If they are only swabbing people sick enough to be in hospital , and you only get in hospital when you need icu level care , and we know there is only 50-60% survivability of ventilated patients in a functional health care system....that's a very different cohort the the US , where the question might be how RICH you are?

 

[PDoz]

Are you assessing deaths to on average be occurring in week 3 or 4 after testing positive?

Symptoms develop 7-14 days after exposure, ARDS takes another 5-8 days , then another week in icu seems to be what we are seeing over here.

 

[BlackHand]

Selection bias is the reason UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

The problem with comparing dead to 'recovered' is that we know for sure when someone's dead but there is no standard definition for recovered so it's arbitrary how those are getting counted.

Are you recovered when you get discharged from the hospital? Or is it 14 days after testing positive? 30 days?

In my state we had 0 'recovered' for about the first month or so while leading the country in case counts.

 

[PDoz]

The problem with comparing dead to 'recovered' is that we know for sure when someone's dead but there is no standard definition for recovered so it's arbitrary how those are getting counted.

Are you recovered when you get discharged from the hospital? Or is it 14 days after testing positive? 30 days?

In my state we had 0 'recovered' for about the first month or so while leading the country in case counts.

Or after 2 negative swabs ...yet then being one of the 50 Koreans later testing positive

Or nasal swab possitive but still fecal pcr positive

 

[Browneye]

Here are a few facts (part 1).

While I don't generally disagree with your points, they are only partially facts. You have a lot of assumed or media-regurgitated points here, and plenty of opinion mixed in. But you prefaced with "facts". The situation is rather fluid right now, we agree on that, and surely there are some dire conditions.

My opinion is that the main stream media is not reliable, not our ally in all this. Generally they have an agenda, there is always a spin.

I can't even say the last time I attended a sporting event or movie theater, it's been so many years.
I loath airline travel, maybe 6 flights since 9-11. And the two short cruise-ship trips we both got sick. Not much changing for me/us, wife and I.

 

[Browneye]

How sick do you have to be to get swabbed in the uk, and how do you get declared " recovered"? If they are only swabbing people sick enough to be in hospital , and you only get in hospital when you need icu level care , and we know there is only 50-60% survivability of ventilated patients in a functional health care system....that's a very different cohort the the US , where the question might be how RICH you are?

In CA you can only get tested if you have severe symptoms. For minor symptoms your are told to 'presume" infection. How can we know how many of those there are?

My opinion is that the data is unreliable. Even the death count is unreliable. Worse, it appears to be age 70+ for the vast majority.

 

[Handlebars]

How sick do you have to be to get swabbed in the uk, and how do you get declared " recovered"? If they are only swabbing people sick enough to be in hospital , and you only get in hospital when you need icu level care , and we know there is only 50-60% survivability of ventilated patients in a functional health care system....that's a very different cohort the the US , where the question might be how RICH you are?

Thank you PDoz. The next thing I would do from that appraisal is try to eliminate bias in our comparison, for example to look at a country with testing regimen similar to the UK in order to see if that comparison smooths out the enormous difference in outcomes. That is, to fix that testing regimen variable.
What if cause of death is attributed to the virus whenever a presumed positive person dies of natural causes?
The point I'm getting at is that time isn't going to provide a solution to these questions about the virus if each country or state is doing different things.

 

[Handlebars]

The problem with comparing dead to 'recovered' is that we know for sure when someone's dead but there is no standard definition for recovered so it's arbitrary how those are getting counted.

Are you recovered when you get discharged from the hospital? Or is it 14 days after testing positive? 30 days?

In my state we had 0 'recovered' for about the first month or so while leading the country in case counts.

Thank you, BlackHand.
There is also a problem with countries changing the categories they use...for example Canada has used the category "recovered" but switched the category to "resolved".

 

[Handlebars]

My opinion is that the data is unreliable. Even the death count is unreliable.

Indeed.
Canada has just refused a fast test developed here. If another developed country were to be using a fast test by the tens of millions, it would alter disease spread numbers.

Once these turkeys begin principle component analysis, fuggetaboudit

 

[Solom01]

So here's something to think about that I don't hear mentioned. I'm in SW Florida and the local news is talking about farmers in the state throwing out tons of produce that has gone bad and milk because the restaurants and other buyers they had up north are closed and trucking is becoming scarce. It will be interesting to see what happens when the hoarding shortages become real shortages since when a harvest is done it's done until the next harvest. The only silver lining is that it will be people in big cities that keep talking about quarantines that will be the first to go hungry since they are totally dependant on rural areas for food - the stuff doesn't magically appear in Whole Food aisles. If Maslov is right when hunger strikes the fear of getting coronavirus will go way down in the hierarchy.

 

[Handlebars]

Symptoms develop 7-14 days after exposure, ARDS takes another 5-8 days , then another week in icu seems to be what we are seeing over here.

Then number of dead should be viewed as from the number of infected some time earlier.

 

[Browneye]

So here's something to think about that I don't hear mentioned. I'm in SW Florida and the local news is talking about farmers in the state throwing out tons of produce that has gone bad and milk because the restaurants and other buyers they had up north are closed and trucking is becoming scarce. It will be interesting to see what happens when the hoarding shortages become real shortages since when a harvest is done it's done until the next harvest. The only silver lining is that it will be people in big cities that keep talking about quarantines that will be the first to go hungry since they are totally dependant on rural areas for food - the stuff doesn't magically appear in Whole Food aisles. If Maslov is right when hunger strikes the fear of getting coronavirus will go way down in the hierarchy.

Actually, I made mention of this on Thursday:

When they can't buy food, then hoards of starved crazy people will descend on neighborhoods looking for whatever they can get. Maybe the zombie apocalypse wasn't so far fetched after all. Frankly I think the country is headed for either civil war or a world war. End times seems even plausible.

 

[FlatSix911]

We had 1625 deaths in the USA two weeks ago. That data is so out of date for practical purposes that it may as well be written in Etruscan.
Please also keep in mind that you are necessarily miscalculating case fatality rates, because many of the people who are still sick may still die.
There are a lot of unknowns and you can't really make arguments based on fatality rates, one way or another when it is still early days.

Nonsense, the point of the chart is to show that Covid-19 is far more lethal to those over 60.

Keep your mind open to learning... the truth will set you free!

 

[jaizon]

Can anyone take a stab at why the UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

UK
9,875 dead
78,991 total
12.5 % mortality

US
18,559 dead
492,416 total
3.7% mortality

Why the super high mortality rate in UK?

guesses?

bad teeth

 

[BlackHand]

Thank you, BlackHand.
There is also a problem with countries changing the categories they use...for example Canada has used the category "recovered" but switched the category to "resolved".

Hmm, most of the sites I've seen use Resolved or Closed to indicate Recoverd + Dead.

 

[Solom01]

Actually, I made mention of this on Thursday:

Sorry, didn't see that.

 

[Handlebars]

Hmm, most of the sites I've seen use Resolved or Closed to indicate Recoverd + Dead.

recovered or sent home from hospital

Now, about reinfection or incomplete clearance and the problem with Trudeau hanging relinquishment of all the madness of his power grab on the hoped for development of a vaccine.
Some young "recovered" patients are now developing virus chilblain-like skin problems and other weird symptoms.
Herd immunity may be a pipedream.

 

[Browneye]

Sorry, didn't see that.

I’m sorry - it’s not very good news.
The same thing can happen if half the country loses their way to earn an income - they won’t be able to buy food.
It’s a slippery slope, and I don’t think many have thought it thru that well.
Desperate people do crazy things.