30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Chancelucky2]

As Chancelucky2 points out, the current death count is over 7500 more than you posted. That's about 8 hours worth of cancer deaths. Absolute best case scenario is we are peaking at about 1/3 of the daily death rate of cancer with about 6 weeks of wind down ahead of us.

Actually, his source seems to say that worldwide covid 19 deaths went from 21k on March 25 to 107k as of April 10: a very big deal.

fwiw, I've often found that climate change denial articles will cite statistics , then when you look at the source the number cited might be accurate, but the full picture turns out to be dramatically different.

 

[BlackHand]

As Chancelucky2 points out, the current death count is over 7500 more than you posted. That's about 8 hours worth of cancer deaths. Absolute best case scenario is we are peaking at about 1/3 of the daily death rate of cancer with about 6 weeks of wind down ahead of us.

Actually his source seems to say that worldwide covid 19 deaths went from 21k on March 25 to 107k as of April 10: a very big deal.

Sorry, I wasn't clear. I was just pointing out that the number of deaths in the 3 hours since he posted had climbed by more than 7500 from the total he had posted. In all fairness, he was probably rounding down for simplicity's sake...

 

[Browneye]

Reasonable. Another couple of weeks will reveal more valid data.

We still have the same 50 or so cases locally. No changes.

On the comparo chart, surely that is what was available at the time of writing. I’m not reading anything into it.

 

[BlackHand]

Yup.

On the comparo chart, surely that is what was available at the time of writing. I’m not reading anything into it.

Normally I would agree, but the author quotes several other pieces published this week so it's not like they've been sitting on the piece. The only 2 reasonable explanations are that they are too lazy and/or stupid to check the source and update the chart or they knowingly used 2+ week old numbers because it strengthens their point.

Numbers may not lie, but people use numbers to lie all the time. We're all trying to read tea leaves here, the least we can do is make sure the leaves are fresh. Anyways, I'm climbing out of this rabbit hole and going to go do some yard work then go for a ride. Here's hoping it all still looks crazy to you in a few weeks with so few cases in your area.

 

[jaizon]

 

[Handlebars]

As Chancelucky2 points out, the current death count is over 7500 more than you posted. That's about 8 hours worth of cancer deaths. Absolute best case scenario is we are peaking at about 1/3 of the daily death rate of cancer with about 6 weeks of wind down ahead of us.

Actually, his source seems to say that worldwide covid 19 deaths went from 21k on March 25 to 107k as of April 10: a very big deal.

fwiw, I've often found that climate change denial articles will cite statistics , then when you look at the source the number cited might be accurate, but the full picture turns out to be dramatically different.

There are a number of problems that arise when trying to analyze "the numbers" with this pandemic as well as in climate "science". The authorities have been atrocious. For example, have you seen ANY explanation from any of them regarding what % range "low risk" is? What formula, what calculation do they do to arrive at the conclusion?
Climate change scientists don't seem to know right-side-up from upside-down. every year they get corrected and then do it again upside down next study. To them a spike is a spike, positive or negative works to paint a picture if you simply invert the truth. As Michael Mann insists about his upside down use, his algorithm doesn't care about the sign, so it's fine. It isn't science, and parts of this certainly aren't either. If you want to see the offical corrections some of them make for upside down work and then do the same thing next time, message me. It's easy to prove in scientific papers and the corrigenda.

That doesn't mean the disease is a hoax or that climate change is a hoax. Some of the most important scientists aren't worthy of the name and that is the problem.

So first let's all look together at UK's inconsistent metrics and horrifying numbers and see what they mean.

78,991 confirmed infected
9,875 dead
344 recovered

Anyone want to analyze that for starters?

 

[Oberst]

View attachment 49605

That is actually what I plan to wear to the grocery store!

 

[Browneye]

Our counts for both new cases and deaths are going down each day - state of CA. We're dropping down the list of states and their counts.

People are out and busy. A couple of block parties, there are so few cars they setup in the middle of the road - couples 6' separated. Kids everywhere. It's amazing. Everybody's yard is looking great. Some are working, some are not. This is an area of near-million dollar homes, and up.

Disneyland is the largest employer in Orange County - some 12k people or something. Monday they get furloughed. No indication when the park will open. A ticket to both parks is now $180. We are six miles away and I haven't been for about 18 years. But people come here from all over the world to walk that silly theme park.

My oldest daughter is in the Seattle area - they took their boat out Thursday, beautiful up there, pay card kiosk at the boat launch. They were prepared to head home if enforcement came. He is retired LEO. She works for King County Courts. I don't think they've been working, or just criminal cases. Barr had mentioned something about changing holding laws, she did too - have had to let some felons go due to not being able to get a court date within the legal period of time. Right to a speedy trial, you know.

My boss claimed a couple of new domain names for PPE equipment, we're putting up a retail site for product sales, CC and UPS shipping for about 25 sku's. We'll switch our SEO consultants over to some new keywords for this stuff and drive traffic. We just bought 300K masks. And ten thousand sanitizer 4 oz sprays. About a hundred thousand masks are preordered, some have arrived and just get shipped out. State government office are in high demand for PPE. EZUP is a vendor - they have temporary medical shelters ready to ship. One of our t-shirt vendors is making washable cotton masks with imprint, plenty of companies buying those for four or five bucks a piece.

Our jan-san segment still has a lot of backordered products - consolidated sku's for P&G, Gojo, Chlorox. Demand is through the roof. Sales volume is up. We are not price gouging - some items seem high, but due to product demand, availability of raw materials, and lead times for production, some prices are higher. China is shipping masks by the millions. I hear they breath on them before they package them.

 

[Browneye]

>snip

The only 2 reasonable explanations are that they are too lazy and/or stupid to check the source and update the chart ...
>Snip

This. Too lazy and stupid. That's the first thing I did. The other numbers are rather staggering though, don't you think?

Chris Martenson has new vid out - talks about the parallel death rates year by year for France, this year trending up some. But I would like to see one for the US. I noticed that was missing.

I hate it when people don't reveal the truth - they want to put a spin on it. Just let the facts speak for themselves.

 

[jaizon]

Mr. Browneye, if you would be so kind, sir, could you give me a short list of your positions in this thread and what you believe we should do, other than just letting the facts speak for themselves. Thank you.

 

[Browneye]

Mr. Browneye, if you would be so kind, sir, could you give me a short list of your positions in this thread and what you believe we should do, other than just letting the facts speak for themselves. Thank you.

Actually, it's Chris - Browneye is my forum username and nickname. I have a craft brew label - Browneye Brewing Co.

Opinions are like assholes - everybody's got one and they all stink.
I prefer to let the facts speak for themselves. That is what eventually makes policy, decisions. It's not about how people FEEL about things.

We were with a group of adults a month or so ago, all enjoying lively conversation, and this topic came up - feelings verses facts. One of the wives actually popped up and said, "Well, feelings are just as important as facts." She was serious. I politely commented that while that may be so, we don't make policy on feelings. Facts and logic rule the day. It's a very basic difference between men and women, thinkers and feelers - and there are a LOT of people that rely on their gut feelings about things, which is all fine and good, but it's not what you build a society on. The MSM is really big on getting everyone's feelings heard, which is also fine, but again, it's not what important decisions on policy get made on.

Let's continue to reveal facts, data, eye witness accounts, anecdotes. And skip the politics and feelings, and power plays. Our news media has become so corrupt and unreliable that you can't believe anyone anymore - that is my opinion.

I've had a number of people try to pin me down as if I have some kind of unique access to information. I don't. I don't know any more than anyone else here. What I do know, is an entire lifetime of experience in making things happen, along with a good dose of skepticism. I don't automatically believe anyone just because there is some claim of expertise. NO ONE IS INFALLABLE. No one. People - that's the keyword here - people - they all make mistakes.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here are some interesting facts... the distribution of deaths based on age groups.

 

[Handlebars]

Depending on how you want to look at it, UK is showing that if you have been confirmed as a covid case, so far you are 28 times more likely to be dead than recovered.
9,875 dead
344 recovered

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Here are some interesting facts... the distribution of deaths based on age groups.

We had 1625 deaths in the USA two weeks ago. That data is so out of date for practical purposes that it may as well be written in Etruscan. Please also keep in mind that you are necessarily miscalculating case fatality rates, because many of the people who are still sick may still die.

There are a lot of unknowns and you can't really make arguments based on fatality rates, one way or another, when it is still early days.

 

[jaizon]

Here are a few facts (part 1).

1) We have no idea how bad this is going to get or how long it will last, regardless of what the politicians or "experts" say.

2) Without much much more thorough testing we have no idea how to contain this, nor will we be able to. You can't point to your head and say, "This is the metric I use." It's akin to wearing a mask made out of chicken wire and telling people you are safe. Science will beat this or it won't. It is only human hubris that allows us to think we (as a species) are invincible. I envy the dinosaurs. At least they didn't see it coming.

3) Without a working vaccine it is very likely to come back and hit us again. Oh, how long have they been working on that AIDS vaccine? Sisyphus, anyone?

4) Social distancing seems to be helping and has a big part in keeping the death toll much lower than originally thought, but that practice is now butting heads with the need to get this economy going again (whatever that means post/during Covid-19), lest we get deeper into this recession. The old immoveable object - irresistible force problem.

5) The payouts to individuals and families is nowhere near enough to carry them through. Of course this effects the working poor far more than the middleclass (who are suffering as well). Watch out...that there's breeding grounds for the lefties still out there.

6) It will be a long time before I could be comfortable going into a movie theater or going to a ball game or, well, you name it. Not that I won't ever, but not right away. Pretty much everything and way we do things will change (for quite some time, if not forever).

7) So....to borrow from T.S. Eliot and turn it into a question..."Is this the way the world ends, not with a bang but a whimper?"

7) I truly admire the dedication and bravery of all the medical personnel, first responders, police, fire fighters, etc. in these dangerous times. And I salute each and every one of you.

 

[City Commuter]

As of today in America:

• Total cases: 492,416
• Total deaths: 18,559

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Handlebars]

As of today in America:

• Total cases: 492,416
• Total deaths: 18,559

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

View the number of confirmed cases COVID-19 in the United States.

www.cdc.gov

What is your belief wrt what the figure represents;

• Total cases: 492,416 is

a) number of people currently living with an infection
b) number of people ever infected

To determine whether dead, recovered, and presently infected people are all in that total

 

[Handlebars]

Can anyone take a stab at why the UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

UK
9,875 dead
78,991 total
12.5 % mortality

US
18,559 dead
492,416 total
3.7% mortality

Why the super high mortality rate in UK?

guesses?

 

[Handlebars]

Please also keep in mind that you are necessarily miscalculating case fatality rates, because many of the people who are still sick may still die.

There are a lot of unknowns and you can't really make arguments based on fatality rates, one way or another, when it is still early days.

That isn't correct. One could make an argument taking that into account.

because many of the people who are still sick may still die.

If the dead count changes it can only go one way, so in some circumstances one could well argue intelligently, or profitably, taking that fact into account.
One could state "and it can only get worse". i.e Good argument made.

 

[PDoz]

Can anyone take a stab at why the UK has 28 times more dead than recovered?

UK
9,875 dead
78,991 total
12.5 % mortality

US
18,559 dead
492,416 total
3.7% mortality

Why the super high mortality rate in UK?

guesses?

Selection bias.

The only cleanish data we have on mortality rates is the ruby princess. 3700 passengers ( admittedly an elderly population) , 710 known to be infected but there were still a few hundred not tested.

11 dead, about 80 currently waiting to discover what the real mortality rate for covid is and 10 of those are critical.

The rest of the worlds data is junk. Take Australia - in the early days you could only be tested if you had come from wuhan, then overseas, then " close contact" with a known case, or perhaps work in a " high risk" industry ( unless you work in a supermarket...lets not scare those workers with the truth )

Anyone watching death rates is looking at 3/4 week old irrelevant and dirty data . Do you wait until the cars in front of you have dead passengers, or hit the brakes when the lights turn red? Oh, and before hitting the accelerator...look for traffic who ignored those other lights....