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FlatSix911
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Clearly, you have lost the debate when you give up and take your marbles to go home...
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FlatSix911
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Good news... the latest US projection has been revised downward from 81K to 60K.
The European Union countries have also been added to the Covid-19 model going forward.
covid19.healthdata.org
The European Union countries have also been added to the Covid-19 model going forward.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
covid19.healthdata.org
Handlebars
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What I don't get about their projection show is that projections depend on scenarios - in this example, they project what happens if people truly lock down and truly distance.Good news... the latest US projection has been revised downward from 81K to 60K.
The European Union countries have also been added to the Covid-19 model going forward.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.
View attachment 49372
"assuming full social distancing through May 2020"
No scenarios for if they cheat a lot. If vital services get cut. And so on.
How does this one projection become the prediction unless it is thought to be based on a "most likely" scenario over others?
Full social distancing is VERY UNLIKELY to occur everywhere.
Browneye
Well-Known Member
The mental midget. LOL And his blow-hard cohorts that think they know everything. 
That's great news on flattening the curve.
I doubt anyone is going to want to skip everything for another month - my bet is they'll sell the downward slope to open things back up. If they don't it's going to really ruin things. Companies can only go so long without generating revenue, and then people won't be able to pay their bills.
Our business is doing well.
And the kids didn't have CV after all - they're doing fine.
We're doing great. Great food, great beer. It's just a little boring when you can't go meet up with your peeps. A little too boring. But it's fine, more or less the same schedule for us. Our entertainment bill is down at least a grand a month. And the rebate will pay half our taxes still due. They got a huge chunk this year.
Last forecast I heard was, "....much much much lower..."
Our 100K twin cities still have their 52 cases. That's right - 52 infected patients, which is double what it was ten days ago. Everyone else is just waiting...and waiting...and waiting.
So far it's a hundred times less than they said. Maybe it will double in five days. Then it will only be 98 times less. [shrug]
That's great news on flattening the curve.
I doubt anyone is going to want to skip everything for another month - my bet is they'll sell the downward slope to open things back up. If they don't it's going to really ruin things. Companies can only go so long without generating revenue, and then people won't be able to pay their bills.
Our business is doing well.
And the kids didn't have CV after all - they're doing fine.
We're doing great. Great food, great beer. It's just a little boring when you can't go meet up with your peeps. A little too boring. But it's fine, more or less the same schedule for us. Our entertainment bill is down at least a grand a month. And the rebate will pay half our taxes still due. They got a huge chunk this year.
Last forecast I heard was, "....much much much lower..."
Our 100K twin cities still have their 52 cases. That's right - 52 infected patients, which is double what it was ten days ago. Everyone else is just waiting...and waiting...and waiting.
So far it's a hundred times less than they said. Maybe it will double in five days. Then it will only be 98 times less. [shrug]
BlackHand
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Yes, their projection is explicitly based on deaths and death rates from the various outbreaks and assuming full social distancing already implemented or will be implemented within 7 days of the projection. They pretty much say their model will self correct because if death rates go up due to failed social distancing the projections will then go up as those deaths are added into the modelling.
It's interesting to see how it adjusts as the dataset grows with more areas moving past their peak of the outbreak. They basically only had Wuhan data to start with - in other words, they were modeling from limited and/or suspect data. I don't think it's meant to be THE prediction. But the worst case scenario type projections that were used to motivate us to take social distancing seriously are now so far off in terms of overall numbers that this tool has gotten more attention.
Our model is designed to be a planning tool, and is informed by the shape that other COVID-19 outbreaks are taking, in terms of deaths, around the world and across the US. Other models may use other approaches, such as assuming a population where everyone was equally likely to interact with everyone else, and model different scenarios such as the absence of, or different levels of, social distancing. These models are useful for motivating action to prevent such worst-case scenarios, while our model is designed to specifically address the planning needs of hospital administrators and local governments.
City Commuter
Active Member
Rush Limbaugh: Coronavirus is like the common cold, and “all of this panic is just not warranted”
More than 14,700 people have died from the new coronavirus in the United States, according to Johns Hopkins University. More than 432,000 people across the country have been sickened by COVID-19.
Coronavirus updates from April 8, 2020
Globally, almost 1.5 million people have been diagnosed with COVID-19 and more than 88,000 have died from it, according to Johns Hopkins University.
www.cbsnews.com
Such a sad fool, whats worse, are all the fools who listen to him.
Handlebars
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Agree that is very foolish of him and totally wrong, but let's be reasonable in evaluation...he might not be OK upstairs; he's dying of cancer and might be highly medicated. He should close down the shop and take it easy. Maybe he made the mistake of tuning in to listen to Canadian Health authorities
March 10
You can see here that by Feb 1, I was speaking against the complacency and idiocy and false information from our health authorities:
So let's not be political partisan idiots, ok? There were experts widely used by media, quoted saying the regular flu is much more a concern.
tomjasz
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- Minnesnowta
A debate requires data and valid arguments. Not sock puppets hurling insults and staying with single source data.
FlatSix911
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Agreed. Let's work to keep the EBR forums open to a respectful, healthy debate for all points of view.
We might even learn something new... like the Covid-19 projections improving.
We might even learn something new... like the Covid-19 projections improving.
Browneye
Well-Known Member
CDC admits to lying about deaths...
www.americanthinker.com
The CDC Confesses to Lying About COVID-19 Death Numbers
Can any government statistics on COVID-19 deaths be trusted? It is an open question now that we are learning that the highly respected, world-class Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been lying to us. This revelation comes a f...
Strong words. They only thing CDC admitted is that the number of deaths includes presumptive cases.CDC admits to lying about deaths...
The CDC Confesses to Lying About COVID-19 Death Numbers
Can any government statistics on COVID-19 deaths be trusted? It is an open question now that we are learning that the highly respected, world-class Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has been lying to us. This revelation comes a f...
If you balance all presumptive cases with 30% false negatives on tested patients, I wouldn't be surprised to see the number of Covid-19 deaths adjusted upwards.
For this to happen, mortalities tagged not Covid-related, will have to be properly re-examined - postmortem, obviously. I personally don't care, the numbers are already high enough to be worried.Let us know when they get adjusted up.
When I look at the curve of new daily cases here in Canada, there is a section on the graph - last 14-20 days - where cases are presumed. When I check it again a few days later, most of those earlier "presumed" become "confirmed".
Handlebars
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Our communist idiot Jussie Dressup just announced that Canada is under lockdown for the foreseeable future.
Our dairy farmers are being advised to kill their cows and get out of farming.
The totalitarian land grab is on.
America is the world's last hope.
Now you know why Trump sent the patrols up to the border.
Dems Liberals and all globalists are the worst of plagues - the Wuhan Plague is nothing in comparison.
Our dairy farmers are being advised to kill their cows and get out of farming.
The totalitarian land grab is on.
America is the world's last hope.
Now you know why Trump sent the patrols up to the border.
Dems Liberals and all globalists are the worst of plagues - the Wuhan Plague is nothing in comparison.
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Browneye
Well-Known Member
Adjustment of death counts does not sound reasonable, feasible, or realistic.
My city and the one next door have a combined population of 121,000 - 52 confirmed cases, they are isolated. That's four one-hundredths of a percentage. I think four deaths. We have been told that 50-80% of the population will contract the disease, with a death rate of 1 to 4%. So at the low end, that would be 60,000 cases, and 600 deaths. But we are to peak the health resources demand in 4 more days. There are a hundred and some patients in the hospital throughout the county. Surely some will die. Maybe they won't. And what's this crap about a drug, that if it works it's bad?? WTH.
What I want to know is where these numbers are going to come from and when. So far, in direct contrast to our resident expert here, not any news source has been able to convey an answer to this. NOT. A. SINGLE. ONE.
Seriously, with all the expertise here, all the know it alls, armchair quarterbacks, doomsdayer's, and self-ascribed experts - how 'bout some solid evidence? Please. I'm completely open to it. I'm waiting, holding my breath.
Somebody is lying. Either completely fabricated or completely stupid.
And that spike isn't 3M, it's 10M. I don't think anybody really gets it. Nobody was prepared for this. NOBODY. This is the 'Christmas Gifit' from the Orient.
From a personal standpoint, it surely appears my comfy retirement is up in smoke. A third of the country could be left without an income. When they can't buy food, then hoards of starved crazy people will descend on neighborhoods looking for whatever they can get. Maybe the zombie apocalypse wasn't so far fetched after all. Frankly I think the country is headed for either civil war or a world war. End times seems even plausible.
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City Commuter
Active Member
No wonder we have a reality tv show cartoon for a "president" lol! I mean, there are people who actually watch, digest, and believe these right wing propagandists.
FlatSix911
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The truth hurts...
linklemming
Well-Known Member
Coming from someone who actually watches, digests and believes the left wing propagandist.
Your and your views are not any better than those your are critiquing except in your head
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