30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Handlebars]

What people don't realize is that Covid-19 might not go away. There is a good chance that when the epidemic ends, the disease will become endemic, coming and going like a seasonal flu, with more severe symptoms and higher mortality.

Yep. There is serious disregard for that because of the push for vaccine. Information pushed says that this virus is slow to mutate. That is not necessarily going to work out as hoped.

Sections are slow, sections are fast. To make a test or a vaccine, they look to work on a slow-to-mutate section for the obvious reason.

That doesn't mean that a quick-to-mutate region stops mutating quickly.

 

[antboy]

Uhh, the optimist in me would like to think that is satire and not serious.

Really, though at this point the best case scenario is that the measures we're all taking are effective and the numbers don't add up to what the models show. Then we'll get lot's of articles about how the medical experts all ruined the economy

Oh, the overall numbers will be lower, for sure, and the WHO, CDC, and media will use this as evidence that the lock-down worked, completely ignoring approaches like South Korea (something I believe North America COULD pivot to sooner as opposed to later).

Ontario released its modeling numbers last week, including the best/worst case scenarios for ICU bed usage in April. As of last night, the province was at about 60% of their best case scenario.

I still expect more stringent measures here in Toronto, but that's because our mayor seems to be in full on panic mode regarding this thing.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Oh, the overall numbers will be lower, for sure, and the WHO, CDC, and media will use this as evidence that the lock-down worked, completely ignoring approaches like South Korea (something I believe North America COULD pivot to sooner as opposed to later).

Uh-uh. South Korea and Taiwan were able to avoid a catastrophic lockdown because they were on the ball in January and had a testing and contact tracing infrastructure ready to go. We had our first case in the States on approximately the same dates as South Korea and Taiwan had theirs. And it is now almost three months later and the States still do not have the testing infrastructure firing on all cylinders and nobody (as far as I can tell) is even starting to think about how to do contact tracing at scale, which will be absolutely required to end this lockdown.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

While I tend to agree with a lot of what you say, you have a way of arguing a point that seems accusatory. There's no mystery about what I'm 'referring to'. In many cases so-called 'experts' are in disagreement. I don't have instant respect for any self-ascribed 'authority', it is earned. If they can prove their position with facts and evidence, so much the better. Lots of people have lots of 'feelings'.
Don't you just hate it when you see a doctor or a veterinarian about something and you hear the, 'well I think' and 'we could try'. YOU are the one that is supposed to KNOW.

An accepted axiom of business is that if you have a great idea but cannot get buy-in from those that need to for something to happen, nothing does. It's just a dead idea.

Tell us who is getting their 'source of information' here on the forum? Or whom YOU think. What is the purpose of this discussion? Perhaps this could clarify things. This is supposed to be a sharing of thoughts, no??? Or do you simply just wish to shut people down cuz somehow YOU know better? I'm not following your line of thinking sometimes. I imagine vice-versa. I've never been a blind follower of anything - I have always questioned, reasoned, gathered facts and opinions. Yes, I can think for myself, thank you. You don't get to do that for me. No one does.

How 'bout all them youtube 'experts'??? Anybody with a go-pro can post any manner of idiotic BS. On what is their 'authority'? Or 'expertise'?

I'm sorry, but for all of that you did not answer my question. Sounds to me like you are deflecting.

It was an extremely simple question: what specific knowledge do you have that makes you think you know something epidemiologists do not?

 

[Browneye]

I'm sorry, but for all of that you did not answer my question. Sounds to me like you are deflecting.

It was an extremely simple question: what specific knowledge do you have that makes you think you know something epidemiologists do not?

Nothing. What's your point? Or is that a rhetorical question?
It would seem YOU are the one deflecting. You have a feeling therefore you know. Sorry, not buying it.

 

[City Commuter]

Hospitals Face Severe Shortages Of Medical Gear

Wow, and how long did Trump and his conservative crooks have to prepare for this?

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Nothing. What's your point? Or is that a rhetorical question?
It would seem YOU are the one deflecting. You have a feeling therefore you know. Sorry, not buying it.

You are just plain wrong.

About me: I coauthored papers in the late 80's and early 90's on how to make ELISA tests more accurate using mathematical techniques. In the early aughts I consulted with multiple hospitals and local governments on how to build early warning systems to detect a pandemic or an attack with a biological weapon. However, beyond a level I EMT I have no medical expertise and am just a humble data scientist.

What I do have is a heck of a rolodex. A lot of people I worked with and worked for these last thirty years have been reaching out to me and I've been reaching out to them, trying to understand What Is Going On. All of them have told me that this is an extremely bad situation that we have never seen in our lifetimes. All of them. There was no detectable variation of opinion amongst people with relevant expertise that I have spoken to.

The facts are extremely simple:

1. We are faced with a novel disease and humans have no natural immunity to this disease.
2. This disease is very easy to transmit.
3. There is no documented effective treatment at this time.
4. There is no vaccine at this time.
5. Estimates of the case fatality rate vary from about 0.4 percent to about 5 percent.

FWIW, I genuinely hope that I am wrong and you are right. No sane person wants to live in an abattoir.

 

[tomjasz]

Uhh, the optimist in me would like to think that is satire and not serious.

Really, though at this point the best case scenario is that the measures we're all taking are effective and the numbers don't add up to what the models show. Then we'll get lot's of articles about how the medical experts all ruined the economy

Sadly it is not satire. Another far-right jingoistic source.

 

[Oberst]

Sadly it is not satire. Another far-right jingoistic source.

You must be a blast at parties

 

[tomjasz]

You must be a blast at parties

Ignore setting grow larger day by day. See ya!

 

[Oberst]

Ignore setting grow larger day by day. See ya!

Oh my! Does this mean we are not friends anymore?

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Interesting changes in the projections of hospital's needs and beds, vents, etc. April 4 versus today April 6. (in a positive direction) For example, ventilators needed dropped from 24,848 to only 13,664 in just 2 days. All Beds projected that were needed, dropped from 164,745 needed to only 80,843. Is mainstream media keeping up with this ? Or is there perhaps a bit too much sensationalism at this juncture ?

 

[Feliz]

You must be a blast at parties

Having accompanied Tom at several parties I can confirm that he is a real blast.

 

[tomjasz]

How is it we’re in a totally new territory we still expect perfect numbers.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Interesting changes in the projections of hospital's needs and beds, vents, etc. April 4 versus today April 6. (in a positive direction) For example, ventilators needed dropped from 24,848 to only 13,664 in just 2 days. All Beds projected that were needed, dropped from 164,745 needed to only 80,843. Is mainstream media keeping up with this ? Or is there perhaps a bit too much sensationalism at this juncture ?

I genuinely hope those projections are correct. Please keep in mind that the range of possible outcomes shown on those graphs are still very broad.

 

[Browneye]

You are just plain wrong.

About me: I coauthored papers in the late 80's and early 90's on how to make ELISA tests more accurate using mathematical techniques. In the early aughts I consulted with multiple hospitals and local governments on how to build early warning systems to detect a pandemic or an attack with a biological weapon. However, beyond a level I EMT I have no medical expertise and am just a humble data scientist.

What I do have is a heck of a rolodex. A lot of people I worked with and worked for these last thirty years have been reaching out to me and I've been reaching out to them, trying to understand What Is Going On. All of them have told me that this is an extremely bad situation that we have never seen in our lifetimes. All of them. There was no detectable variation of opinion amongst people with relevant expertise that I have spoken to.

The facts are extremely simple:

1. We are faced with a novel disease and humans have no natural immunity to this disease.
2. This disease is very easy to transmit.
3. There is no documented effective treatment at this time.
4. There is no vaccine at this time.
5. Estimates of the case fatality rate vary from about 0.4 percent to about 5 percent.

FWIW, I genuinely hope that I am wrong and you are right. No sane person wants to live in an abattoir.

I think you're confused. Oh well. I never wrote whatever it is you are taking offense to - simply posted an article from CANADA of all places. I know nothing about them.

Where was there disagreement of these points? I never mentioned a single one. You can be right, I'm fine with that.
You simply misunderstand, or only want to see things from your own lens, and we get that too.

If you insist on talking in circles I can simply put you on ignore. Wouldn't bother me in the slightest.

It's obvious there a number of kooks here that will be REALLY disappointed when it all peters out and there's a cure. They'll have nothing to bitch about. Oh yeah, they'll find something else. LOL

Oh, and you had me on 'rolodex'.

 

[terb]

We've blown past 300,000 cases of Covid 19, and Trump wants us to wear scarfs because he absolutely failed the American people, and our medical system. Maybe he'll increase military spending yet again, who needs a well funded medical care system anyways, lol!

To bad you do not have Obama Care, they would have taken better care of you!!

 

[Alex M]

Here is how it should be done - interview with South Korean top expert: Video

Highlights:
Everybody is wearing a mask as per recommendations (having been through SARS and MERS already, they don't care about WHO "PR medicine", they know what works).

Everybody can get tested, government pays if you're tested positive.

Travelers from Europe are tested right in the airport. Results are ready from 6 hours to 1 day, temporary accommodations provided if it takes longer than several hours. 14 days self-quarantine for those who are tested negative, and it is strictly monitored through the phone app. Invasion of privacy - heck yeah, for a whole 14 days. Not terribly long if you consider the alternative - getting infected and dying (or having to put up with endless paralysis of economy and social life).

 

[Handlebars]

...and they say tigers and lions at the Bronx Zoo have it...

 

[J.R.]

...and they say tigers and lions at the Bronx Zoo have it...

I heard early on that felines can get the virus, but at the time (2 mos.) they weren't sure if canines could get the virus. They (the experts?) weren't definitive whether cats could infect humans. I wasn't interested enough to do any follow up reading on the issue. My dog is on lockdown with me