30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Handlebars]

Now they're finding out that it's like HIV with wings. It apparently attacks T cells and wrecks red blood cells. This is IMO probably why the anti-malarial drug works to control the effect of the virus. Wuhan lab did a spectacular job of making a virus that defeats humans. I wonder why Canada had to be involved, though. Why does the Canadian government team up with the Communist Party of China?

 

[Alex M]

I'm in SW Florida and the local news is talking about farmers in the state throwing out tons of produce that has gone bad and milk because the restaurants and other buyers they had up north are closed and trucking is becoming scarce. It will be interesting to see what happens when the hoarding shortages become real shortages

There is a lot of push to reopen in late spring or early summer, so hunger wars in developed countries are not likely. People will buy less (of everything, not just food), and will pay more. I personally haven't noticed a shortage of anything yet, except for a few items in organic foods aisle.

Though with nearly 30,000 new cases today in the US alone, we should expect the reopening to be gradual and fitful, with many restrictions in effect for the next several months or a even a few years. And it will cause the epidemic to last longer and will possibly trigger 2nd or 3rd wave. Recovered people are not getting their health back, immune system becomes impaired for a long time if not forever. The cost for governments will be enormous. It would've been cheaper to send everybody on welfare for a year, with mortgage and taxes deferrals.

 

[Browneye]

39% believe it came from the bioweapons lab in Wuhon.

And supposedly the US had a grant project there worth millions. Next they will say the US funded it or created it.

 

[Alex M]

Wuhan lab did a spectacular job of making a virus that defeats humans. I wonder why Canada had to be involved, though. Why does the Canadian government team up with the Communist Party of China?

Why does anybody team up with China? Money has no smell, money knows no borders - popular sayings, isn't it.... Good old greed.

 

[Browneye]

Here's my prediction...my browneye opinion. I've had enough time now to think about all the news and events thus far.

Young and healthy people will go back to work with masks and distancing. I think some will on May 1. It will be like a 'may-day'.
Testing for anyone suspected, or that has contact with someone with symptoms. There has to be free and available testing for whenever or wherever there is infection, suspected or otherwise. Contact tracking must be implemented - so there has to be cheap and easy testing.
Antibody testing - that has to be ramped up for anybody that wants it as well, so we know who can and who can't be infected. Guesses are that 25 to 50% of the population could already have been exposed, and the reinfection rate for at least a year is low to nil. That would work long enough to stop the spread by quarantining those that have it from those that could still get it.
Temp screening will become commonplace. People will not be allowed to be sick in public. Period.
People will not submit to chipping or certifying. It will be self-knowledge of what you can and cannot participate in at your risk level.

Isolate the elderly, and especially ones with an underlying condition - they are the ones most susceptible and most likely to have complications.

We move on from there. I predict it's going to take another 60-90 days for this to be implemented. A vaccine by the end of the year.

Due to the fear of virus transmission some cultural shifts will take place. Some things, activities, practices, will be replaced with others. Some industries will take much longer than others to revive, or may simply cease to exist. Not everyone can or will get a bail out. Some restaurants and tourist and travel businesses will cease to exist. Some entertainment venues. Most industries will survive, especially the things people are most interested in, and for things they deem to be necessary.

Manufacturing will shift from china to US for many goods and services. People will still drive, and work, and play, they still want entertainment. Las Vegas will open back up with social distancing - venues will change, crowd control will change. Pro sports will resume.

 

[Browneye]

I suspect now would be a really good time to develop a domestic made ebike.
In particular, the restaurant biz is going to change drastically. It has to survive, cuz people rely on others cooking for them, but the way it works is going to change forever. Innovators in this will be the winners in the long run. I predict 'booth' dining will be all the rage again.

 

[PDoz]

People will not submit to chipping or certifying. It will be self-knowledge of what you can and cannot participate in at your risk level.

You think?

My bet is our mobile phones become our permit / pass to be out. You're only allowed out once you have evidence of immunity / past infection ( which brings huge questions about the limitations of antibody testing) , and then all you need is tinder to join forces with apple/ google and have an alert if someone within a few metres isn't certified as " safe" . The mob will take over from there.

Lets face it, the majority of the herd have already submitted to tracking technology when they bought a car / signed up to their phone without reading the fine print etc. Credit cards / shopping rewards programs etc. Give people enough incentive and they care more about convenience than privacy.

 

[Browneye]

My last leased car - the Challenger R/T, has a tracker. If you don't pay for it or take it out of the country they know about it.
IDGAF

But I don't think it will be 'permitted', I think it will be what you're willing to submit to based on your own cognizance. I guess we'll see. Americans are fiercely independent - we were done with GB when it was time. And that wasn't all that long ago in the big scheme of things.

 

[PDoz]

. Americans are fiercely independent

You're currently running 1/5 the death rate of some european countries ( spain etc) - it'll be interesting to watch how strong that independence is compared to the desire for personal protection. I can imagine that if the mobile app was sold as a tool for protection , like guns....your right to ve defended against those sneaky Covid carriers...

 

[jaizon]

People are waffling out their rear ends about what will happen, about what society will look like when the dust settles, but because nobody knows what will happen pontificating is just speculation. But it is fun to hypothesize, kind of like rearranging the deck chairs. My two cents is that it will be much worse than you think. 10,000 lined up at a southwestern food bank today!!! Wake up.

 

[Browneye]

Evidently guns are selling like hotcakes. More loonies fearful of the zombie apocalypse. There are plenty of freaky preppers here - and some of them are hiding out from everything in their underground bunkers. All the comforts of home.
Actually it's not all that uncommon - security systems, firearms, surveillance cameras, patrols, perimeter sensing. People that have stuff to lose, and family to protect, do it fiercely. They just don't admit to it. Like the house up the street with the Maserati in the garage, and a murdered-out pickup or jeep in the driveway, with 'blue lives matter' sign in the front yard, and a US flag flying proudly. Evidently military or law enforcement.

It's said if you fly a US flag proudly on the front of your house or in the front yard, the bad guys won't trespass - they understand these are patriots and are armed to the hilt. The last thing a common burglar wants to deal with. It's been said an armed society is a polite society. People are less likely to try to pull off bad crap if they think they're gonna get capped for it. Arizona is still like the wild west - lots of gun toters. People don't mess with people there. Same for Texas. In some places open carry is common. You can have a firearm ready at hand in your house, or even while camping out. Bad guys need not apply.
California got all yuppie and hippy-fied, smoke too much weed, and try to outlaw all firearms. We call it the nanny-state.

It's not uncommon for a jeweler or a pharmacist to have a side-arm. The crazies will try to rob you in broad daylight. Our jewler has an electronic lock on their door - they have to 'buzz you in'. And the owner has a firearm in a holster on his hip at all times. Another lady I worked with some time back had a pharmacy with her husband - said meth-heads would come in regularly and try to rob them, money or drugs.

 

[Browneye]

People are waffling out their rear ends about what will happen, about what society will look like when the dust settles, but because nobody knows what will happen pontificating is just speculation. But it is fun to hypothesize, kind of like rearranging the deck chairs. My two cents is that it will be much worse than you think. 10,000 lined up at a southwestern food bank today!!! Wake up.

Eat me. Waffle out your own rear end. And yes it's fun, it's all we've got.
I'm not waiting in line for food. We were at the market Sunday and it was very well stocked, great prices, everything you could want and then some, absolutely fantastic. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[pmcdonald]

Let's keep this discussion civil.

My thoughts and prayers are with America right now, as they were with Spain and Italy before you. I have deep affection for your people and landscape. Due to your unique quirks (economic and social divisions, undocumented workers, limited social safety nets) the burden of this pandemic will fall much more heavily on some than others. Clearly from the above posts it's impacting cities, counties and states disproportionately.. for the time being.

Let us all hope those curves start flattening over the coming weeks. Australia has just reached this point this past week and you can almost hear a collective sigh of momentary relief.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Time for a reality Check...

Actually we are way PAST DUE.

- curve flattening has ONLY mitigated a peak hospital visits related to covid 19, in SOME cities that had a major risk of over-whelming their hospitals. BUT yet the entire country is locked down. Economically devastating more and more as each day passes. Governors and mayors dont seem to 'get it.'
- If all actual cases were truly being counted, (we are missing millions by not doing adequate testing) the mortality rate is less than 0.5%.
- In many states you still cannot get tested without all the RIGHT symptoms, and a doctor's order. Well guess what ? This is one personal example : Two doctors (from two PREMIER HOSPITALS in Chicago) reviewed my sisters symptoms, and said she not only did not have Covid 19, but was not allowed to get tested. (had the typical no taste, no smell, respiratory issues, and many other symptoms) She found a way anyway to get tested (her two daughters are nurses who felt she should be tested), and when she got the test done, she tested POSITIVE. Fortunately she is ok, BUT she is also a care taker for my parents, who are in high risk categories. She needed to have been tested sooner ! Thus The symptom checking is likely FAILING in many more places that just here. You have all seen the stories from multiple sources, and probably know people personally who have experienced the symptoms. Way more people have this than anyone is admitting, yet they likely don't even know they had it.
- we need to be testing for ant-bodies NOW. as germany is doing, and they found 15% of population has anti-bodies, meaning they were indeed exposed, even if not showing symptoms, and yet most doing fine.
- Many hospitals in areas (representing over 75% of the US) barely even being hit with any Covid patients are sitting virtually empty (i.e. no elective procedures allowed), losing tons of revenue, a system that was already on the verge of sinking our entire economy, and sucking well over 25% of our GDP if you count the REAL numbers. Staff is being laid off, healthcare salaries being cut, creating even more economic hardship even for the people at deemed 'essential businesses' - how much more essential can you get than health care workers ? (relatively speaking of course)
- What are the plans for when lockdowns are lifted ? Does your governor, who locked down your state have a plan ? If so, What is it ? This is not federal government territory. Its YOUR STATE, since it was the states who ORDERED the lockdowns.
- Who is going to cover all the economic damage, and businesses that will never again be able to re-open ? Are you going to go to restaurants right away, sitting less than 2 feet from others again ? Who is going to replace all the farmers who grew produce exclusively for restaurants, who cannot revamp at all with no viable supply chain to supply indivdiduals or grocers, who now as we speak are going bankrupt ? The list of broken supply chains is endless.
- Do you want to live in a bubble or cave forever now that this has happened ?
- Do you really actually believe that a SAFE vaccine will be here in less than 18 months ? Do some homework, real homework, if you think that [fantasy] is going to happen.

- Life must go on. We must get back to work, and back to our lives, and as we do everyday, willing to live with risks, and do so very very very soon. The fear and reaction to the fear has made for many many irrational reactions, and very harmful over reactions.

 

[steve mercier]

Time for a reality Check...

Actually we are way PAST DUE.

- curve flattening has ONLY mitigated a peak hospital visits related to covid 19, in SOME cities that had a major risk of over-whelming their hospitals. BUT yet the entire country is locked down. Economically devastating more and more as each day passes. Governors and mayors dont seem to 'get it.'
- If all actual cases were truly being counted, (we are missing millions by not doing adequate testing) the mortality rate is less than 0.5%.
- In many states you still cannot get tested without all the RIGHT symptoms, and a doctor's order. Well guess what ? This is one personal example : Two doctors (from two PREMIER HOSPITALS in Chicago) reviewed my sisters symptoms, and said she not only did not have Covid 19, but was not allowed to get tested. (had the typical no taste, no smell, respiratory issues, and many other symptoms) She found a way anyway to get tested (her two daughters are nurses who felt she should be tested), and when she got the test done, she tested POSITIVE. Fortunately she is ok, BUT she is also a care taker for my parents, who are in high risk categories. She needed to have been tested sooner ! Thus The symptom checking is likely FAILING in many more places that just here. You have all seen the stories from multiple sources, and probably know people personally who have experienced the symptoms. Way more people have this than anyone is admitting, yet they likely don't even know they had it.
- we need to be testing for ant-bodies NOW. as germany is doing, and they found 15% of population has anti-bodies, meaning they were indeed exposed, even if not showing symptoms, and yet most doing fine.
- Many hospitals in areas (representing over 75% of the US) barely even being hit with any Covid patients are sitting virtually empty (i.e. no elective procedures allowed), losing tons of revenue, a system that was already on the verge of sinking our entire economy, and sucking well over 25% of our GDP if you count the REAL numbers. Staff is being laid off, healthcare salaries being cut, creating even more economic hardship even for the people at deemed 'essential businesses' - how much more essential can you get than health care workers ? (relatively speaking of course)
- What are the plans for when lockdowns are lifted ? Does your governor, who locked down your state have a plan ? If so, What is it ? This is not federal government territory. Its YOUR STATE, since it was the states who ORDERED the lockdowns.
- Who is going to cover all the economic damage, and businesses that will never again be able to re-open ? Are you going to go to restaurants right away, sitting less than 2 feet from others again ? Who is going to replace all the farmers who grew produce exclusively for restaurants, who cannot revamp at all with no viable supply chain to supply indivdiduals or grocers, who now as we speak are going bankrupt ? The list of broken supply chains is endless.
- Do you want to live in a bubble or cave forever now that this has happened ?
- Do you really actually believe that a SAFE vaccine will be here in less than 18 months ? Do some homework, real homework, if you think that [fantasy] is going to happen.

- Life must go on. We must get back to work, and back to our lives, and as we do everyday, willing to live with risks, and do so very very very soon. The fear and reaction to the fear has made for many many irrational reactions, and very harmful over reactions.

How is business Mike ?

 

[pmcdonald]

Planet Money ran a series of interviews with prominent economists across the spectrum of thought. The consensus was this is a health crisis first and foremost. After that is brought under control then attention should turn to repairing the tattered economic remains left in the pandemics wake. That's cold comfort for those impacted by the lockdowns and ensuing economic carnage.

I think America is in the unique situation due to your political structure of tailoring regional responses to the crisis. That does come at the risk of slow and underwhelming responses, such as (if I may indulge in some armchair punditry myself, meaningless as that is) what we saw in Florida. That specific example will cost a lot of needless deaths.

We do have a vision of what under-reaction looks like courtesy of 1918. The scale of carnage and suffering left in the wake of that epidemic was unimaginable. I'm the first to admit the comparison has its flaws but it's the closest analogy we have. If our health systems become overwhelmed then some of our medical advances since are rendered mute.

There was a reasonably candid interview with Anthony Fauci in the NY Times Daily the other day. He stressed world health leaders were very aware of the health risks of over-reacting to the crisis in terms of the trickle on health costs of the lockdown, and were doing their best to walk the line between over-reaction and under-reaction.

 

[Handlebars]

Since it attacks the testes I think it's going to be an STD as well

 

[Cowlitz]

Let the real health experts do the research and figure things out. Ignore the pundits. Pressure politicians to legislate financial help for businesses and people. Unfortunately the latter is hard to influence for average people, and the scientists are busy doing research whilst armchair "experts" have all the time in the world to put out disinformation and opinion based on emotions.

I'm not ready to die so you can make a buck or two.

 

[Browneye]

You didn't watch the vid from post 557.
If you drive your car you're willing to die. Period.

Just too much rational thought there...ZDoggMD. I like it. Thanks Mike.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

...

- If all actual cases were truly being counted, (we are missing millions by not doing adequate testing) the mortality rate is less than 0.5%.
- In many states you still cannot get tested without all the RIGHT symptoms, and a doctor's order. Well guess what ? This is one personal example : Two doctors (from two PREMIER HOSPITALS in Chicago) reviewed my sisters symptoms, and said she not only did not have Covid 19, but was not allowed to get tested. (had the typical no taste, no smell, respiratory issues, and many other symptoms) She found a way anyway to get tested (her two daughters are nurses who felt she should be tested), and when she got the test done, she tested POSITIVE. Fortunately she is ok, BUT she is also a care taker for my parents, who are in high risk categories. She needed to have been tested sooner ! Thus The symptom checking is likely FAILING in many more places that just here. You have all seen the stories from multiple sources, and probably know people personally who have experienced the symptoms. Way more people have this than anyone is admitting, yet they likely don't even know they had it.
- we need to be testing for ant-bodies NOW. as germany is doing, and they found 15% of population has anti-bodies, meaning they were indeed exposed, even if not showing symptoms, and yet most doing fine.
- Many hospitals in areas (representing over 75% of the US) barely even being hit with any Covid patients are sitting virtually empty (i.e. no elective procedures allowed), losing tons of revenue, a system that was already on the verge of sinking our entire economy, and sucking well over 25% of our GDP if you count the REAL numbers. Staff is being laid off, healthcare salaries being cut, creating even more economic hardship even for the people at deemed 'essential businesses' - how much more essential can you get than health care workers ? (relatively speaking of course)
- What are the plans for when lockdowns are lifted ? Does your governor, who locked down your state have a plan ? If so, What is it ? This is not federal government territory. Its YOUR STATE, since it was the states who ORDERED the lockdowns.
- Who is going to cover all the economic damage, and businesses that will never again be able to re-open ? Are you going to go to restaurants right away, sitting less than 2 feet from others again ? Who is going to replace all the farmers who grew produce exclusively for restaurants, who cannot revamp at all with no viable supply chain to supply indivdiduals or grocers, who now as we speak are going bankrupt ? The list of broken supply chains is endless.
- Do you want to live in a bubble or cave forever now that this has happened ?
- Do you really actually believe that a SAFE vaccine will be here in less than 18 months ? Do some homework, real homework, if you think that [fantasy] is going to happen.

- Life must go on. We must get back to work, and back to our lives, and as we do everyday, willing to live with risks, and do so very very very soon. The fear and reaction to the fear has made for many many irrational reactions, and very harmful over reactions.

@Deleted Member 4210 ,

I don't really know how to intellectually process what you are saying here. The reason there are fewer cases than expected is people changed their behavior. Best evidence is that people started social distancing in many places even before stay-at-home orders went into effect.

To start off with, I don't think anybody knows what the death rate for this virus actually is. There are large errors in both the denominator (due to inadequate testing and people who are asymptomatic) and in the numerator (best evidence is that we are significantly undercounting deaths). Plus, there are bewildering variances amongst population in both how easily this virus is transmitted (although to a first approximation "extremely easy" is a good answer) and how many people die from it. You probably can't say much more than that the death rate is somewhere between 0.1 percent and 10 percent. That is two whole orders of magnitude.

Also, a death rate of "only 0.5%" is still insane. You would not voluntarily participate in an activity that had a 0.5% chance of you dying, and very few people who were not completely cuckoo would do so. That is ten times more dangerous than paragliding or climbing in the Tetons, and approximately as risky as climbing an 8000-meter mountain in the Himalayas.

Based on experience in China (which of course may not apply here) it will probably take weeks, and possibly months, for new cases to fall to a low enough level that "reopening" will be feasible.

My own personal opinion is that anyone who thinks that you can end this mess by just declaring it "over" and "reopening" is completely nuts. Nobody is going to book a trip on a cruise ship. Damned few people are going to engage in personal or business travel of any kind (or even be able to). I doubt people are going to flock back to sporting events or concerts; You aren't likely to purchase a new car or new home or start a new business while something like this stalks the land.

The only way you are going to get things restarted again is (1) getting new cases to a very low level, preferably zero; and (2) having an infrastructure in place (large-scale testing and contact tracing) to catch the inevitable leakers. We have neither of those things and aren't likely to for months.

On testing, the US has stalled out at around 100,000 tests per day. Even the bare-minimum proposals on starting things up require about 750,000 tests per day. Some plausible proposals would require 20 millions tests per day or more. I have extreme doubts that testing even the lower of those amounts is possible without a huge ramp-up in capacity: we'd need more people doing tests, we'd need more machines to run the tests; we'd need more test kits; we'd need more reagents. Even scaling up antibody tests would have comparable challenges. Basically we are going to have to (1) train a small army of people to train the large army of people we will need to do the testing; and (2) either build entire factories or repurpose existing factories to make the testing equipment and materials needed for such an effort.

On contact tracing, we have comparable challenges. To adequately staff a nationwide effort we'd need to hire on the order of 1 million people. You are also going to need to build a huge organization to train and manage all those people. You can't do that overnight. The one glimmer of hope is that on the tech side of this Google and Apple seem to be collaborating on a contact-tracing smartphone app that would be enormously helpful in such an effort. Although it is interesting to note that there have been no other concrete steps taken by anybody to make a large-scale testing and contact tracing infrastructure possible.

These are enormous challenges. Given time and a supertanker full of money I think they are achievable challenges. But time is the one resource we don't necessarily have a lot of. Please understand that we are looking at order-of-magnitude increases in scale here. If you went to the beach every day and surfed 4-foot waves and showed up one day and there were 40-foot rollers you are really looking at a totally different sport. Quantity has a quality all its own.

Making all of that happen in two weeks (for a May 1 "reopening") is flat out impossible. Doing it by the end of May is borderline, and a more realistic time frame would be in July.