World War III

[Mike_V]

How sanctions work:
1) Export of the gas turbo machinery (goods) incorporating U.S. Export controlled technology to the sanctioned entity is banned. Gasprom? IDK
2) Canada asks permission to re-export the goods despite the sanctions.
3) Joe Biden approves, not no-one else, nope
I imagine the turbine will actually be exported from the USA (NYC) because:
US approval was required, US loophole for turbo machinery export = government approval at the highest level.
Quote after this betrayal:today,
"Zelensky's harsh words for Canada on Nord Stream"

"The ministry of foreign affairs had to summon Canada’s envoy due to an absolutely unacceptable exception to the sanctions regime against Russia. The decision will be perceived in Moscow exclusively as a manifestation of weakness"
Z

 

[mclewis1]

So lets see if we can clear up some of the miss information ...

First the gas turbine is I believe actually actually a pair and isn't being sold, it's being repaired at the most experienced location able to do so, the Siemens facility in Montreal. The original plan is to ship the repaired turbine(s) back via Siemens Germany. I don't know about the other 3 turbines being discussed or if there are actually 5 of them but Nord Stream 1 needs the original ones repaired to be able to come back up to full daily capacity. Yes, doing that also means the Russians can sell more gas.

Regardless of the Russians making money the Germans (and the Italians and a few others) desperately need NS 1 to be running at something close to capacity ASAP to be able to stock pile gas supplies the summer for this winter's heavy usage. Germany in particular is looking at a very ugly situation if they don't have their reserves at full capacity this winter. "Ugly" being potentially bad enough to influence or bring down the political party in power. A change like that could be really bad news for Ukraine (as is any instability in EU politics right now).

Folks need to understand that this situation is a lot more complicated than what's making the US news headlines. It's not about making a few dollars on the repair of some gas turbines.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

From The Institute for the Study of War, 12 July 2022:

Russian forces remain in a theater-wide operational pause in Ukraine. Russian forces continue to regroup, rest, refit, and reconstitute; bombard critical areas to set conditions for future ground offensives; and conduct limited probing attacks. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not claim any new territorial control on July 12. ISW has previously noted that an operational pause does not mean a cessation of attacks. Current Russian offensive actions are likely meant to prepare for future offensives, the timing of which remains unclear.

 

[ChezCheese:)]

Good link.

 

[Handlebars]

So lets see if we can clear up some of the miss information ...

First the gas turbine is I believe actually actually a pair and isn't being sold, it's being repaired at the most experienced location able to do so, the Siemens facility in Montreal. The original plan is to ship the repaired turbine(s) back via Siemens Germany. I don't know about the other 3 turbines being discussed or if there are actually 5 of them but Nord Stream 1 needs the original ones repaired to be able to come back up to full daily capacity. Yes, doing that also means the Russians can sell more gas.

Regardless of the Russians making money the Germans (and the Italians and a few others) desperately need NS 1 to be running at something close to capacity ASAP to be able to stock pile gas supplies the summer for this winter's heavy usage. Germany in particular is looking at a very ugly situation if they don't have their reserves at full capacity this winter. "Ugly" being potentially bad enough to influence or bring down the political party in power. A change like that could be really bad news for Ukraine (as is any instability in EU politics right now).

Folks need to understand that this situation is a lot more complicated than what's making the US news headlines. It's not about making a few dollars on the repair of some gas turbines.

That's a thoughtful post and some issues raised that deserve consideration.
First, absolutely Italy and especially Germany need fuel or its manufacturing base is dead meat and chaos will ensue.
However, look at the Green/WEF/UN pleasing actions of Netherlands moving to curb farming in the way Sri Lanka's delusional rulers did. It's not as if these people or Biden's or Trudeau's handlers are aiming for their nation's success.
They need the chaos as reason to impose the horrific brutality which will be necessary for achieving the 2030 goal. Netherlands brought out their instigators and as well, the cops were shooting live rounds at a 16 year old driving a protest tractor around a blockade. Deadly force against peaceful protest, like in Canada how they horse-trampled a disabled indigenous woman protester.
This has to be seen in context; just previous the government allowed protesters to attempt to set trains on fire and did nothing as they blocked railways for a long period. They did NOTHING then...

but when it's about vaccination mandates, or Green initiatives, nothing is going too far, in order to punish the protesters. Seize their bank accounts, their vehicles, and threaten their homes, their children, their pets.

 

[Mulezen]

Russia Will Go All Way to Warsaw if U.S. Arms Ukraine More, State TV Says

The Russia-1 program 60 Minutes also discussed "liquidating" Ukraine's leadership as well as American-supplied weapons for Kyiv's forces.

www.newsweek.com

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Russia Will Go All Way to Warsaw if U.S. Arms Ukraine More, State TV Says

The Russia-1 program 60 Minutes also discussed "liquidating" Ukraine's leadership as well as American-supplied weapons for Kyiv's forces.

www.newsweek.com

News item from the future:

"President invokes NATO article V: July 13th, 2052"

President Zendaya today invoked article V, after Russian incursions near Zamosc, Poland. Forward-deployed forces from the United States, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom moved to prepared positions in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. Finland and Sweden are calling up the reserves.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the Urals, separatist forces attacked Chinese peacekeepers in the Republic of Uralia. There are reports of additional civilian casualties in Chelyabinsk and Yekaterinburg.

 

[ChezCheese:)]

Jeez! Don't scare me like that, Mr.Coffee!

 

[JES2020]

Russia Will Go All Way to Warsaw if U.S. Arms Ukraine More, State TV Says

The Russia-1 program 60 Minutes also discussed "liquidating" Ukraine's leadership as well as American-supplied weapons for Kyiv's forces.

www.newsweek.com

Too me it's insane to think that Putin is Trump's buddy and yet, with all of his aggressive bluster and actions, America's right wing, so called patriots, STILL support The dumpster.
Very troubling for America.

 

[Mulezen]

Putin didn’t need to invade any more of Ukraine with Trump in office. Trump’s very own campaign manager (Paul Manafort) was working with an FSB officer in Ukraine. Trump weakened the bonds of NATO enough to entice Putin to invade

 

[Martinet]

NEW AXIS
Heard on the news the Russians are buying advanced drones from Iran, with Inanian technicians to train the Russians,
Sort of a topsy turvy-turvy change in the old order of things.

 

[Mulezen]

Ukraine's new US rockets are causing fresh problems for Russia | CNN

There's a new and potentially very significant factor in the Ukrainian conflict: the Ukrainians' ability to use recently supplied Western systems to hit Russian command posts, logistical hubs and ammunition dumps a long way beyond the front lines.

www.cnn.com

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Ukraine's new US rockets are causing fresh problems for Russia | CNN

There's a new and potentially very significant factor in the Ukrainian conflict: the Ukrainians' ability to use recently supplied Western systems to hit Russian command posts, logistical hubs and ammunition dumps a long way beyond the front lines.

www.cnn.com

Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).

The Russians can't shoot them down, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Also, more HiMARs food incoming, from the Institute for the Study of War 13 July 2022:

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia. Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion. The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000). Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families. Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July. Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7.

 

[Mulezen]

What ’they’ call volunteers we call ‘Shanghaied‘

 

[mclewis1]

Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).

The Russians can't shoot them down, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.

Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.

 

[rayray]

Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.

Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.

 

[mclewis1]

Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.

Absolutely agree, On it's own it's not worth much to him, as the standard refrain is (and has been) that NATO is the aggressor, etc. etc. I was thinking more about the potential impact of a new threat along with work by the Ukrainians once they have safe air cover. I'm trying to visualize a scenario where Mr. P. really sees no viable way forward and backed with the threat of western forces enforcing the borders would have to succumb to the pressure without a direct threat to Russia itself. The part that I can't see yet is the 3rd party buffer with the enforced "guarantee" to respect Russian borders.

A simple stalemate now with entrenched armies gives him one of things he wants, control over the Donbas and southern regions.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict?

Nobody was threatening Russia.

 

[rayray]

Nobody was threatening Russia.

Of course not. However, that was Putin’s supposed fear and claim.