World War III

Status
Not open for further replies.
Also, more HiMARs food incoming, from the Institute for the Study of War 13 July 2022:

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia. Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion. The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000). Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families. Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July. Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7.
Click to expand...
 
Mr. Coffee said:
Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).

The Russians can't shoot them down, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.
Click to expand...
Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.
 
mclewis1 said:
Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.
Click to expand...

Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.
 
rayray said:
Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.
Click to expand...
Absolutely agree, On it's own it's not worth much to him, as the standard refrain is (and has been) that NATO is the aggressor, etc. etc. I was thinking more about the potential impact of a new threat along with work by the Ukrainians once they have safe air cover. I'm trying to visualize a scenario where Mr. P. really sees no viable way forward and backed with the threat of western forces enforcing the borders would have to succumb to the pressure without a direct threat to Russia itself. The part that I can't see yet is the 3rd party buffer with the enforced "guarantee" to respect Russian borders.

A simple stalemate now with entrenched armies gives him one of things he wants, control over the Donbas and southern regions.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.
Click to expand...

That isn't remarkable; the nazi forces are losing soldiers at a terrific rate.

Mr. Coffee said:
My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).
Click to expand...
So your unspoken guess is that they can only delay failure for a short time.


Mr. Coffee said:
The Russians can't shoot them down
Click to expand...
False. The nazis have been firing a blitz of many many ordinary missiles before they used the HiMARs, in order to exhaust immediate response first. Now the Russians know that tactic and will work around it.


Mr. Coffee said:
, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.
Click to expand...
That game is almost over and the nazis are still losing personnel in enormous numbers.
 
I could not fail noticing whenever a "spontaneous uprising" of Russian separatists broke anywhere outside Russia, that region was always including some interesting resort so Putin could have another castle built there...
 
Maybe a bad sign for the Rushka?

From ISW :

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war. Russian Telegram channel Rybar released a report on July 18 about the Novaya Tuva movement- an anti-war organization comprised of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave.[5] Rybar accused the Novaya Tuva movement of disseminating anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic discord within the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines.[6] ISW and others have previously noted the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.[7] These indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilization in part due to a reluctance to mobilize large numbers of ethnic Russians. Rybar’s post as well as previous reporting on a "Free Buryatia” anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions.
Click to expand...

The fact that much of the Rosgvardiya is committed to the war and that they have taken significant casualties is probably going to become important in the future. Note that the Rosgvardiya is Russia's internal security paramilitary force and is used to keep restive provinces down and suppress separatist movements like Novaya Tuva. It will be interesting to see what happens when people in those restive provinces realize the guards are a bit busy...
 
Funny that, from the guys previously reveling in Russian loss of life. "Orcs" then, now sympathetic figures.
 
The Ukrainians call the invaders orcs, and interestingly ‘Ruschists’ (sp) as in Rsiisian Fascists.
In regards to the actual volunteers many come from the impoverished east…their Appalachia. I have read also about the hasty departure/immigration of their highly educated young…another insidious price Russia will pay for the next fifty years.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

P
2023 Levo Warranty.
Replies
1
Views
718
AvalancheRun
AvalancheRun
Kyle Bieda
Creo 2 Tires Alternatives for Road
2 3
Replies
58
Views
5K
Rien
Rien
MartsEbike
eBay (UK) to ban private e-bike sales over fire fears
Replies
15
Views
792
Slaphappygamer
Slaphappygamer
P
ZEN Customer Service
Replies
2
Views
265
DrewInSK
D
T
hello everyone I'm new here and would like to learn some things..
Replies
6
Views
964
lexfurther
L
Back