World War III

[Mr. Coffee]

Also, more HiMARs food incoming, from the Institute for the Study of War 13 July 2022:

The Kremlin likely ordered Russian “federal subjects” (regions) to form volunteer battalions to participate in the Russian invasion of Ukraine, instead of declaring partial or full mobilization in Russia. Russian war correspondent and milblogger Maksim Fomin stated that Russia has begun a “volunteer mobilization,” where every region must generate at least one volunteer battalion. The term “volunteer mobilization” likely implies that the Kremlin ordered the 85 “federal subjects” (regions, including occupied Sevastopol and Crimea) to recruit and financially incentivize volunteers to form new battalions, rather than referring to literal mobilization relying on conscription or the compulsory activation of all reservists in Russia. Russian outlets reported that regional officials recruit men up to 50 years old (or 60 for separate military specialties) for six-month contracts and offer salaries averaging 220,000 to 350,000 rubles per month (approximately $3,750 to $6,000). Separate regions offer an immediate enlistment bonus that averages 200,000 rubles (approximately $3,400) issued from the region‘s budget and social benefits for the servicemen and their families. Russian media has already confirmed the creation or deployment of volunteer battalions in Kursk, Primorskyi Krai, Republic of Bashkortostan, Chuvashia Republic, Chechnya, Republic of Tatarstan, Moscow City, Perm, Nizhny Novgorod, and Orenburg Oblasts in late June and early July. Tyumen Oblast officials announced the formation of volunteer units (not specifically a battalion) on July 7.

 

[Mulezen]

What ’they’ call volunteers we call ‘Shanghaied‘

 

[mclewis1]

Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).

The Russians can't shoot them down, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.

Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.

 

[rayray]

Did you notice the recent comments about Russia possibly buying a bunch of advanced Iranian drones? Even though it was downplayed the timing of that was right in the middle of the HiMARs successes and I don't think that was a coincidence.

An advanced drone with stand off weapons (as opposed to coffee cups dropping modified mortar rounds) is exactly the weapon of choice for hunting mobile artillery when you don't have full control over the airspace (to use ground attack aircraft).

What I'd like to see ...
More mobile artillery (HiMARs, etc.) to stop the advances and setup an effective stale mate.
Introduce more advanced western anti air systems to shut down the airspace over all of Ukraine.
Use the modified Eastern Bloc armor (the Polish supplied T72s, etc.) to bloody the nose of (push back) the Russian army in a few key areas.
Show the resolve to inflict substantial further damage on the Russian forces.
Announce that western/EU armed forces will now be used to defend Ukraine.
Bring up (position outside of Ukraine) heavy western armor in preparation for use in eastern Ukraine. Publicly state plans for securing Ukraine's border in key areas.
Negotiate with Putin over the potential loss of his armies in Ukraine, making it clear that western military will now be used to re establish Ukraine's sovereign borders ... but with no intent to violate Russia's borders. This may require the use a neutral 3rd party force to act as a buffer along the border.
Open up safe corridors for the Russian armies to retreat back to Russia.

Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.

 

[mclewis1]

Interesting points. I wonder how Putin would react to EU forces entering the conflict. I don’t claim to be an expert (or even close) on all of this, but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict? If so, it seems he’d have to further escalate to both achieve that goal and save his pride. I mean, a promise that we won’t invade Russia probably isn’t worth much to him.

Absolutely agree, On it's own it's not worth much to him, as the standard refrain is (and has been) that NATO is the aggressor, etc. etc. I was thinking more about the potential impact of a new threat along with work by the Ukrainians once they have safe air cover. I'm trying to visualize a scenario where Mr. P. really sees no viable way forward and backed with the threat of western forces enforcing the borders would have to succumb to the pressure without a direct threat to Russia itself. The part that I can't see yet is the 3rd party buffer with the enforced "guarantee" to respect Russian borders.

A simple stalemate now with entrenched armies gives him one of things he wants, control over the Donbas and southern regions.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

but isn’t securing Russia’s borders a primary reason for the conflict?

Nobody was threatening Russia.

 

[rayray]

Nobody was threatening Russia.

Of course not. However, that was Putin’s supposed fear and claim.

 

[tomjasz]

What ’they’ call volunteers we call ‘Shanghaied‘

Every country's poorest citizens are the warriors. Then they come home with PTSD and are given preference to be police officers.

 

[Gordon71]

Nobody was threatening Russia.

True except Putin thinks EVERYBODY is threatening Russia.

 

[Handlebars]

Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

That isn't remarkable; the nazi forces are losing soldiers at a terrific rate.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).

So your unspoken guess is that they can only delay failure for a short time.

The Russians can't shoot them down

False. The nazis have been firing a blitz of many many ordinary missiles before they used the HiMARs, in order to exhaust immediate response first. Now the Russians know that tactic and will work around it.

, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.

That game is almost over and the nazis are still losing personnel in enormous numbers.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

True except Putin thinks EVERYBODY is threatening Russia.

He SAYS that.

 

[Gordon71]

He SAYS that.

Hopefully true. Then again if there was an award for most stable leader in the world he wouldn't even get a mention.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

I could not fail noticing whenever a "spontaneous uprising" of Russian separatists broke anywhere outside Russia, that region was always including some interesting resort so Putin could have another castle built there...

 

[Mulezen]

Poles raise money for 20 Warmate kamikaze drones for Ukraine

Polish volunteers have announced fundraising for 20 Warmate kamikaze drones from Poland's WB Electronics, as well as a ground control station, which will be transferred to the Ukrainian troops, reported the organizer of the collection on its website on July 13.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Maybe a bad sign for the Rushka?

From ISW :

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war. Russian Telegram channel Rybar released a report on July 18 about the Novaya Tuva movement- an anti-war organization comprised of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave.[5] Rybar accused the Novaya Tuva movement of disseminating anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic discord within the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines.[6] ISW and others have previously noted the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.[7] These indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilization in part due to a reluctance to mobilize large numbers of ethnic Russians. Rybar’s post as well as previous reporting on a "Free Buryatia” anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions.

The fact that much of the Rosgvardiya is committed to the war and that they have taken significant casualties is probably going to become important in the future. Note that the Rosgvardiya is Russia's internal security paramilitary force and is used to keep restive provinces down and suppress separatist movements like Novaya Tuva. It will be interesting to see what happens when people in those restive provinces realize the guards are a bit busy...

 

[Handlebars]

Funny that, from the guys previously reveling in Russian loss of life. "Orcs" then, now sympathetic figures.

 

[Oberst]

I am waiting for a version of this called Vlad from Leningrad.

 

[Mulezen]

The Ukrainians call the invaders orcs, and interestingly ‘Ruschists’ (sp) as in Rsiisian Fascists.
In regards to the actual volunteers many come from the impoverished east…their Appalachia. I have read also about the hasty departure/immigration of their highly educated young…another insidious price Russia will pay for the next fifty years.

 

[Oberst]

Nobody was threatening Russia.

You can take everything poo tin says and find an equivalent statement from a uniball Austrian Corporal and they all match up.

 

[Oberst]

✂️ Poo tins got one nut

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