World War III

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Yes, what is remarkable is that the Ukrainians have managed to produce a remarkable amount of damage with only a handful of HiMARs.

That isn't remarkable; the nazi forces are losing soldiers at a terrific rate.

My guess is that if the Ukrainians got one hundred of them and sufficient ammunition the war would be over in six weeks or so. The question would be about the ammo, because they are using the high-precision GPS guided rockets and we didn't make all that many of them, and don't manufacture that many of them either (maybe around 3000 per year, which 100 HiMARs could easily shoot in a day).
So your unspoken guess is that they can only delay failure for a short time.


The Russians can't shoot them down
False. The nazis have been firing a blitz of many many ordinary missiles before they used the HiMARs, in order to exhaust immediate response first. Now the Russians know that tactic and will work around it.


, and shooting down a $100,000 rocket with a missile that costs $1,000,000 doesn't make any sense. The Russians don't have any good way to track or engage a highly mobile and fairly small target like a HiMARs and the Ukrainians are being very sneaky in how they deploy them.
That game is almost over and the nazis are still losing personnel in enormous numbers.
 
I could not fail noticing whenever a "spontaneous uprising" of Russian separatists broke anywhere outside Russia, that region was always including some interesting resort so Putin could have another castle built there...
 
Maybe a bad sign for the Rushka?

From ISW :

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s likely effort to shield ethnic Russians from high levels of mobilization may trigger resistance in some of the ethnic enclaves that seem to be disproportionately bearing the burden of war. Russian Telegram channel Rybar released a report on July 18 about the Novaya Tuva movement- an anti-war organization comprised of activists from the Tuvan ethnic minority enclave.[5] Rybar accused the Novaya Tuva movement of disseminating anti-war propaganda and inciting ethnic discord within the Russian Federation. This report is noteworthy in the context of the recent increase in the formation of regionally-based volunteer battalions through Russia, many of which fall along distinct ethnic lines.[6] ISW and others have previously noted the prevalence of non-ethnic Russian battalions fighting in Ukraine, which include troops from Chechnya, South Ossetia, Tuva, Tartarstan, Bashkortostan, Chuvashia, and others.[7] These indicators suggest that Putin may be unwilling to conduct general mobilization in part due to a reluctance to mobilize large numbers of ethnic Russians. Rybar’s post as well as previous reporting on a "Free Buryatia” anti-war group bring to the fore the risk that Putin’s apparent desire to have non-Russians bear the brunt of the war at this stage could create domestic tension in these regions.

The fact that much of the Rosgvardiya is committed to the war and that they have taken significant casualties is probably going to become important in the future. Note that the Rosgvardiya is Russia's internal security paramilitary force and is used to keep restive provinces down and suppress separatist movements like Novaya Tuva. It will be interesting to see what happens when people in those restive provinces realize the guards are a bit busy...
 
Funny that, from the guys previously reveling in Russian loss of life. "Orcs" then, now sympathetic figures.
 
The Ukrainians call the invaders orcs, and interestingly ‘Ruschists’ (sp) as in Rsiisian Fascists.
In regards to the actual volunteers many come from the impoverished east…their Appalachia. I have read also about the hasty departure/immigration of their highly educated young…another insidious price Russia will pay for the next fifty years.
 
Zelensky was co-opted by the nazi forces >it's idiotic to paint Putin as the nazi.
Nazis are having Zelenski order troops to stand their ground now, when the only outcome seems to be another slaughter of Ukrainian men for very poor reason. Zelenski ran on a platform to unite, but the nazi forces took control of him rather immediately and doomed the population.
 
From ISW, 20 July 2022:

The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway but will likely culminate before seizing major populated areas such as Slovyansk or Bakhmut. Russian forces have not made significant advances towards Slovyansk or along the Siversk-Bakhmut salient in the past few weeks and are continuing to degrade their own offensive combat power in localized fights for small and relatively unimportant settlements throughout Donetsk Oblast. Russian troops have notably been attempting to take Siversk since the capture of Lysychansk and the Luhansk Oblast border on July 3 and have still not reached the city as of July 20.[1] Similarly, Russian troops have failed to launch direct assaults on Bakhmut and have largely impaled themselves on fights for small settlements to its east and south. Efforts to advance on Slovyansk have mostly ground to a halt and have made no meaningful gains for weeks. The renewal of active ground offensives following the brief operational pause has not yet translated into meaningful Russian forward progress, although it is possible that either steady Russian pressure or the completion of Russian efforts to rebuild combat power could generate limited gains in the coming days or weeks.

Russian troops are now struggling to move across relatively sparsely-settled and open terrain. They will encounter terrain much more conducive to the Ukrainian defenders the closer they get to the E40 around Slovyansk and Bakhmut due to the increasing population density and built-up nature of these areas (see map in-line with text). The current Russian offensive in Donbas is therefore highly likely to culminate somewhere along the E40 in the coming weeks.https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Donetsk Population Map July 20,2022.png
 
The current Russian offensive may secure limited additional territorial gains in Donbas northeast of the E40 highway
It's a mistake to assume that American views of success are the same as Russian views. Russia is quite obviously concerned with removing the forces rather than spreading out over greater and greater areas, so the nazi "Stand and fight to the last Ukrainian" order leads to slow encirclement of the Ukrainian men and their destruction time and time again.
 
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