30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Handlebars]

Also it's not just about mortality in victims. For some SARS victims the severe and debilitating suffering didn't end with their getting out of hospital.

wiki

Several consequent reports from China on some recovered SARS patients showed severe long-time sequelae. The most typical diseases include, among other things, pulmonary fibrosis, osteoporosis, and femoral necrosis, which have led to the complete loss of working ability or even self-care ability of these cases.

 

[Handlebars]

Allison McGeer, an infectious disease consultant at Sinai Health System, who was at the forefront of the Toronto outbreak.

Before: https://globalnews.ca/news/6458609/looking-back-toronto-sars-outbreak/

They clearly did enough right things to control the outbreak,” McGeer said. “Some of the things that were done were not necessary, but there was no way of knowing at the time that they were not necessary.”

According to the doctor, one thing that wasn’t necessary was quarantine.

“When we learned more about the disease, it turns out that SARS is among the unusual infections that was not infectious before people got sick,” McGeer said.

“Retrospectively, we needn’t have quarantined all of those people who were exposed.”

OK then. They didn't need quarantine for mere exposure because...it was not infectious before sickness symptoms appeared.

This outbreak however, IS infectious before symptoms appear, but naturally they pre-decided that

Mass quarantines won’t happen in Canada if coronavirus is discovered: authorities

Wuhan Coronavirus Can Be Infectious Before People Show Symptoms, Official Claims

A person with the Wuhan coronavirus could be infectious to others before they know they have the virus, according to China's National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei.

www.sciencealert.com

A person with the Wuhan coronavirus could be infectious to others before they know they have the virus, according to China's National Health Commission Minister Ma Xiaowei.

At a Sunday press conference, Ma said someone with the virus could show no symptoms they have the coronavirus anytime between a day and 14 days, CBS News previously reported.



During that time, an asymptomatic person is also infectious and could spread the coronavirus to others, Ma said, which makes it difficult to stop its spread.

Coronavirus symptoms include nasal congestion, headache, cough, sore throat, and a fever, according to infectious disease expert and University of California San Francisco professor Charles Chiu.

"At present, the rate of development of the epidemic is accelerating," Ma said at the press conference. "I am afraid that it will continue for some time, and the number of cases may increase."

 

[Handlebars]

The foolish ignorance of some in downplaying this situation using flu analogy is remarkable. Discussion of that pile of absolute ____, later. Think about hospitalization rate, serious complication rate, mortality rate, infection rate, etc.
Meanwhile,
(Link Removed - No Longer Exists)

By Jan 2, 2020, 41 admitted hospital patients were identified as laboratory-confirmed 2019-nCoV infection in Wuhan. 20 [49%]) of the 2019-nCoV-infected patients were aged 25–49 years, and 14 (34%) were aged 50–64 years (figure 1A). The median age of the patients was 49·0 years

No seniors.

13 (32%) patients were admitted to an ICU and six (15%) died.

Non-seniors, 15% mortality rate.

 

[Handlebars]

While much of the world is focused on the coronavirus outbreak, influenza continues to take its toll in the United States, where an estimated 15 million people have been infected and 8,200 have died from the disease so far this flu season.

....an estimated 15 million people have been infected and 8,200 have died


More about this kind of analysis later.

While the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said those numbers aren't unusually high, they're far higher than the 4,583 cases of coronavirus and 106 deaths confirmed worldwide as of Tuesday morning.

oh, THAT sounds like a fair comparison.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

More supplier delays in re-opening after Chinese New Year holiday...

Further shutdowns in China increase chance for shipment delays

(BRAIN) — Due to the spread of the coronavirus, Chinese businesses and government officials are extending the Lunar New Years holiday closing period until at least Feb. 8 in more regions, increasing the likelihood of bicycle shipment delays. Officials in Suzhou, a manufacturing hub, say...

www.bicycleretailer.com

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if we start to see some minor shortages of certain brands models, maybe even affecting battery shipments, beginning in early summer, IF this starts to drag out longer than just a week or so delay of allowing workers to return to factories. The magnitude of the spread and media playing catch up to it, and CDC involvement with China, suggests the data is really lagging on infected counts, etc. Many forecasted school, business, mass gathering event closures, and country wide in Asia, and gathering steam in other countries nearby.

P.S. Given that this is an ebike forum, trying to keep posts relevant to the effect something like this situation may have, and this 2019N-Cov is having an effect on the industry as evidenced now by these publications. Making all the other comparisons to flu or the causes, or mention of source conspiracies, is really for other forums, and political places. Once again, EBR threads unfortunately get hi-jacked by people going off topic, making it political, stirring up emotions, and then others getting into arguments with those people doing the off topic thing. Would be nice to see some self control from a few of the usual re-curring suspects.

 

[Handlebars]

More supplier delays in re-opening after Chinese New Year holiday...

Further shutdowns in China increase chance for shipment delays

(BRAIN) — Due to the spread of the coronavirus, Chinese businesses and government officials are extending the Lunar New Years holiday closing period until at least Feb. 8 in more regions, increasing the likelihood of bicycle shipment delays. Officials in Suzhou, a manufacturing hub, say...

www.bicycleretailer.com

It wouldn't surprise me at all, if we start to see some minor shortages of certain brands models, maybe even affecting battery shipments, beginning in early summer, IF this starts to drag out longer than just a week or so delay of allowing workers to return to factories. The magnitude of the spread and media playing catch up to it, and CDC involvement with China, suggests the data is really lagging on infected counts, etc. Many forecasted school, business, mass gathering event closures, and country wide in Asia, and gathering steam in other countries nearby.

P.S. Given that this is an ebike forum, trying to keep posts relevant to the effect something like this situation may have, and this 2019N-Cov is having an effect on the industry as evidenced now by these publications. Making all the other comparisons to flu or the causes, or mention of source conspiracies, is really for other forums, and political places. Once again, EBR threads unfortunately get hi-jacked by people going off topic, making it political, stirring up emotions, and then others getting into arguments with those people doing the off topic thing. Would be nice to see some self control from a few of the usual re-curring suspects.

I wouldn't send ANY large money to China whilst they are in dire straits and complete disarray, unless fully backed by credit card.
Discussion of the disease and control measures is relevant, though, as any of us, ebike riders, that live at Ground 2 may be affected, forget the bike.
But ... bikes provide a measure of insulation for some...dependence on public transport can be greatly reduced.

 

[Ebiker01]

ikes provide a measure of insulation for some...dependence on public transport can be greatly reduced.

i was just researching a few days ago some japanese tents from "Snow cape or peak " outdoor company ! from the other thread of " Camping with ebike" ..


The tent + ebike+ titanium cookpots + a water filter + bear spray repellant + solar panels ?? hopefully we won't have to go force camping anytime soon.

 

[Gege Hughes]

Besides ebikes China is a major supplier of the N95 masks. I went by a friends emergency supply company today and got his last box of masks. His suppliers are silent as to when he can expect another shipment. China is taking care of China with its mask production.

 

[Ebiker01]

a big protector for flu and other illnesses is SLEEP , children here are FORCE DEPRIVED of Much needed 12hour Mandatory SLEEP. their bodies are not ready until 18/19yo for a 6am wake up time.
Children and young adults shoul sleep min. 11-14hours . Xtra naps in Mondays and on Wenesdays.
Unfortunetly the industrialized nations do not have a great agenda for addressing the mass sleep deprivation issue in young people and adults alike.

in the Tribal places can't sleep b/c need to hunt for food , in industrialized nations can't sleep
b/c need to work...

this is somehow worth contemplating:

all those years down below had a major virus :

1420-
1520-
1620
1720
1820

not sure about 1920, hv to check


update, well it did too.

1720 Plague, 1820 Cholera Outbreak, 1920 Bubonic Plague, What's Next?

There have been conspiracy theories regarding the pattern of some of history's most destructive pandemics such as the 1720 plague

philnews.ph

at least we have the information , all countries should do everything possible to stop this one before it exponentially infects.

Corona antidote: i'm eating a BIG salad of garlic, onions , cayenne pepper, honey, all sprayed with real lime juice and colloidal silver for now.

 

[Handlebars]

P.S. Given that this is an ebike forum, trying to keep posts relevant to the effect something like this situation may have, and this 2019N-Cov is having an effect on the industry as evidenced now by these publications. Making all the other comparisons to flu or the causes, or mention of source conspiracies, is really for other forums, and political places. Once again, EBR threads unfortunately get hi-jacked by people going off topic, making it political, stirring up emotions, and then others getting into arguments with those people doing the off topic thing. Would be nice to see some self control from a few of the usual re-curring suspects.

I've opened a Novel Coronavirus thread in Off Topic to relieve some of the diversionary tactics and to open up the disease source topics and related other topics.

Novel Coronavirus discussions

This is for the related discussions on the possible pandemic, the source, the studies, control measures, treatments, conspiracy/piracy topics.

electricbikereview.com

 

[BrianK]

If anyone is not taking Vitamin D3 supplements, I’d start now.

2000-3000iu per day.

It’s backed up by solid medical evidence, and it’s safe.

Vitamin D for influenza

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Vitamin D for influenza

Vitamin D and Influenza—Prevention or Therapy?

Vitamin D generates many extraskeletal effects due to the vitamin D receptor (VDR) which is present in most tissues throughout the body. The possible role of vitamin D in infections is implied from its impact on the innate and adaptive immune responses. ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Vitamin D and Influenza—Prevention or Therapy?

Vitamin D isn’t just necessary for proper respiratory immune function, it dampens down the body’s overreaction to a novel pathogen. Novel viruses are so deadly because the body overreacts, filling the lungs with fluid, leading to Sudden Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS).

The SARS outbreak in 2007 was a coronavirus named after this hallmark of its infection. This is also what’s killing victims of the current coronavirus outbreak.

 

[Handlebars]

“However, no sound scientific studies to evaluate these health claims have been published in reputable medical journals. In fact, the Food and Drug Administration has taken action against some manufacturers of colloidal silver products for making unproven health claims.”

a few of the articles on related silver properties

Inhibition of A/Human/Hubei/3/2005 (H3N2) influenza virus infection by silver nanoparticles in vitro and in vivo - PubMed

Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have attracted much attention as antimicrobial agents and have demonstrated efficient inhibitory activity against various viruses, including human immunodeficiency virus, hepatitis B virus, and Tacaribe virus. In this study, we investigated if AgNPs could have...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Inactivation of influenza A virus via exposure to silver nanoparticle-decorated silica hybrid composites - PubMed

Influenza A virus (IFV-A) is one of the main cause of seasonal flu and can infect various of host species via the reassortment of segmented RNA genomes. Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have been known as excellent antiviral agent against IFV. However, the use of free AgNPs has several major...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Disinfection of waterborne viruses using silver nanoparticle-decorated silica hybrid composites in water environments - PubMed

Silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) have been reported as an effective alternative for controlling a broad-spectrum of pathogenic viruses. We developed a micrometer-sized silica hybrid composite decorated with AgNPs (AgNP-SiO₂) to prevent the inherent aggregation of AgNPs, and facilitated...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[harryS]

My nephew's wife left Xian yesterday. In laws are happy.

Back to ebikes, some of the widgets I order off ebay from China are shipping. Somthing I ordered yestarday is already in the maii. Meanwhile, no movement on a motor I ordered before the Lunar New Year holiday.

 

[Handlebars]

Chinese government is fabulous and transparent, according to the top WHO bootlicker's fantastic lie .
Meanwhile in Toronto they seem to be inviting a disastrous outcome. After they fumbled SARS so badly.

A physician who said he developed "a nasty cold with a cough and runny nose" while on a flight from Hong Kong to Toronto is questioning whether there are adequate safeguards to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Canada.

Massey Beveridge, a retired general surgeon, said he was "waved" through Pearson International Airport even after reporting his symptoms to a border services agent.

"My nose is running like Niagara Falls, I'm coughing and feeling pretty miserable," Beveridge told CBC News.

He says he explained his symptoms to the agent and that he was taken to a screened-off area with face masks and hand wash.

"The immigration officer came back a few minutes later and said, 'Here's a handout. You can call public health if you like'," Beveridge added.

"I figured there'd be some kind of public health person coming to interview me."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/toronto-ontario-canada-concerns-airport-screening-coronavirus-1.5446959

 

[Handlebars]

Trump just declared a very good response to the threat, unlike the lax response in Canada.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Here is an update on the possible R naught, based on research from some scientists in China.

You can decide for yourself based on what's presented if this will impact you...

The gentleman presenting this is Dr. Chris Martenson.

"Why the Whitehouse Just Declared a National Health Emergency"

 

[FlatSix911]

Well, it's now reached my back yard in Silicon Valley... welcome the new world order.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/01/31/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-bay-area.html?ana=e_ae_set1&j=90461941&t=Afternoon&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURoa01qSTJZV0UyWm1NMCIsInQiOiJzQk5wbHlqTjhlTGpYMU1WSTlOanlXaGluUXlUOVYyWUdWZ0NWalwvVlwvY21uOVRra1RqWUxiSlpsZE14Y3cwZVFiMnFqRFYwVmZTQnBzRHVxMGE4amsrK1M5Z1p3MG0xcDB3R3JMenozbGFuWEtsZnNldVZRcVpBZWZjbllIWU16RWdnN3FaaU5MR01BbVkySTczcmZNUT09In0%3D

A woman wearing a face mask speaks to hospital personnel wearing protective
medical gowns at No. 5 Hospital in Wuhan, China, on Friday, Jan. 24, 2020.
Chris Buckley/The New York Times

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Well, it's now reached my back yard in Silicon Valley... welcome the new world order.

https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose/news/2020/01/31/coronavirus-santa-clara-county-bay-area.html?ana=e_ae_set1&j=90461941&t=Afternoon&mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiTURoa01qSTJZV0UyWm1NMCIsInQiOiJzQk5wbHlqTjhlTGpYMU1WSTlOanlXaGluUXlUOVYyWUdWZ0NWalwvVlwvY21uOVRra1RqWUxiSlpsZE14Y3cwZVFiMnFqRFYwVmZTQnBzRHVxMGE4amsrK1M5Z1p3MG0xcDB3R3JMenozbGFuWEtsZnNldVZRcVpBZWZjbllIWU16RWdnN3FaaU5MR01BbVkySTczcmZNUT09In0%3D

The hardest part is confirming. Here in US the CDC is the only place doctors can send samples to for verification. CDC has been flooded with 10's of thousands of requests. Not sure why they haven't already worked on getting field test kits out to thousands of locations around the US. There really is no idea how widespread it may already be in many countries outside of China. Only the cases with serious complications and for sure known origination from having been in China are being confirmed. But with 5 to 14 day asymptomatic period, and it being spread during that time, it will be very hard to keep up with the spread, and figure out how and where to take measures to contain.

 

[BrianK]

(Link Removed - No Longer Exists)


In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI 37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.

 

[Handlebars]

No figuring...now we must welcome the Coronafugees.