30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[BrianK]

Between the wet markets that sell live wild animals including bats and snakes as ethnic food, both reservoirs for coronavirus, and the sheer size and population of Wuhan, it would be the most ideal huge scale Petri dish in the world for this type of virus.

Wuhan is home to a large viral bioweapons lab that was thought to be working on this virus, among others. US scientists said months ago that this lab was incapable of properly containing these viruses.

Coronavirus link to China biowarfare program possible, analyst says

The deadly animal-borne coronavirus spreading globally may have originated in a laboratory in the city of Wuhan linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, said an Israeli biological warfare analyst.

m.washingtontimes.com

 

[Handlebars]

Disinfecting alcohol now sold out in every drugstore.
Some makeup cleaning products are high alcohol content that people are not generally aware of, but at higher prices.

 

[BrianK]

Video: Fears coronavirus may be linked to contaminated bat soup | Daily Mail Online

There are fears growing that the coronavirus which is currently spreading through China may have been linked to a contaminated bat soup which a girl can be seen eating in this video.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Between the wet markets that sell live wild animals including bats and snakes as ethnic food, both reservoirs for coronavirus, and the sheer size and population of Wuhan, it would be the most ideal huge scale Petri dish in the world for this type of virus.

Wuhan is home to a large viral bioweapons lab that was thought to be working on this virus, among others. US scientists said months ago that this lab was incapable of properly containing these viruses.

Coronavirus link to China biowarfare program possible, analyst says

The deadly animal-borne coronavirus spreading globally may have originated in a laboratory in the city of Wuhan linked to China’s covert biological weapons program, said an Israeli biological warfare analyst.

m.washingtontimes.com

Please, just don't.

PolitiFact - Fact-checking hoaxes and conspiracies about the coronavirus

Falsehoods about a new strain of the coronavirus spreading from China vary widely, from Facebook posts that take a paten

www.politifact.com

Coronavirus & China's Bio-Weapons Lab Conspiracy | Armstrong Economics

There is a conspiracy theory that is running around very fast which portrays this Coronavirus which began in Wuhan may be linked to two laboratories of the

www.armstrongeconomics.com

If this coronavirus is a bioweapon, it is a curiously incompetent one. So far the mortality rate is well within the range of what we'd see with a novel flu viruse. If this were a bioweapon as good as weaponized anthrax or smallpox we'd be seeing tens of thousands of deaths. Even in China it would be hard hiding that many dead bodies in one city.

So please, if you feel compelled to post conspiracy theories, at least post ones that aren't out and out idiotic.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Actually it would be a devastating bio weapon. (but I emphatically state I dont believe those hoaxes). Consider though It's tranmissivity rate is very high. It's transmitted when people who have it show no symptoms for 5 to 14 days. Due to those factors it's nearly impossible to contain without complete shutdown of global borders and all human interaction, and that needed to be done much faster and earlier on than it has. It started in a very crowded Chinese city (11 million people) in very close quarters. The mayor of Wuhan admitted at least 5 million people left the city long after the initial out break. Every single province in China has now been confirmed to have the virus. It's in more than 11 nations. There is no vaccine for it. Treatment is not easy. A lady here in Chicago that was confirmed to have it, has been on IV's for at least a week, and other measures taken to help her own immune system fight it off. When Attacking the respiratory system, it becomes nasty. It's not just old people that can be compromised. It jumped 2 species and from human to human, making it a 4th gen virus. Symptoms can be easily confused with the flu, so many might ignore it for far too long. Very hard for doctors to determine if it's corona virus without getting samples tested in labs. Labs in China already swamped and overwhelmed. Scientists from several countries now are saying the cases are more likely above 44,000, not the 4000 or so confirmed by Chinese officials. Some mainstream pubs like Forbes is now finally beginning to report some of this. MSM is way behind the curve.

 

[Cowlitz]

Well, I just returned from a buy a few things for the emergency stash trip. I've always had such a supply because I've lived in areas that can, and were cut off by flooding and mudslides.

Mr. Coffee, I saw no masks at the local Walmarche. They did have wipes in a prominent place. I wouldn't bother coming over in the hopes of finding masks.

I'm not expecting anything bad, but needed to update stuff anyway, and actually started doing so a couple weeks ago. Our state is disaster prone. Last winter shelves were getting bare as shipments for local stores couldn't get over the mountain passes. So, I keep an emergency stash of stuff.

 

[Alex M]

No conspiracy theory is too ridiculous when it comes to China. Long tradition of practices that are considered illegal or unethical by the rest of the world. Virus escaping from bioweapons lab sounds plausible. Though, their dirty marketplaces with bats, snakes and rats and very dense population are fertile grounds for viral diseases, too.

 

[BrianK]

if you feel compelled to post conspiracy theories, at least post ones that aren't out and out idiotic.

I’m a doctor. I’ve studied respiratory pandemics at some length and I’ve been published regarding the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, in non medical literature. However, I know how to evaluate these reports. None of it constitutes “conspiracy theory.”

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I’m a doctor. I’ve studied respiratory pandemics at some length and I’ve been published regarding the 2009 H1N1 outbreak, in non medical literature. However, I know how to evaluate these reports. None of it constitutes “conspiracy theory.”

I do agree the situation is serious.

However, I did read the Washington Times article. There was no hard evidence presented which points to this coronavirus outbreak being a bioweapon. None. Zero. Zilch. All that was there was speculation from somebody who is labeled as an expert (and to be fair, probably is). But all that was there was speculation.

If you or anyone else on this forum has that hard evidence please share it here.

Gene sequencing is relatively cheap, and a lot of smart people in the world are able to do it. There are also extensive datasets of the DNA of known organisms. A straightforward use of modern bioinformatics tools should make it possible, with a fairly high degree of accuracy, to know if humans hacked the genome of this virus somehow -- which if you could show it was hacked would make a good argument that it was part of some bioweapons development program. That's what I mean by hard evidence.

There are very likely lots of people in lots of places looking hard at this virus right now. As a first step to developing a vaccine sequencing the virus is very likely. So if this is an artificial virus of some kind we should know very soon, or should have even known by now. And since lots of people in lots of places are doing the work it will be hard to suppress that information.

 

[BrianK]

I don’t believe it’s an “artificial” virus per se. But China had a “top level” viral biohazards lab in the same city as the outbreak, they’ve been studying coronaviruses and other deadly viruses at that lab, and in 2017 US scientists specifically stated that the precautions and protocols of this particular lab were inadequate to contain this kind of pathogen:


“China built a lab to study SARS [the first coronavirus epidemic] and Ebola in Wuhan - and US scientists warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility located in the same city that's at the coronavirus outbreak's center”

 

[Handlebars]

I'm going to look for a source for surgical masks in a small, isolated, mountain town.

Please, just don't.

Listen to the wonderful wonderful Toronto top medical experts ! Please, just don't!

Can face masks protect you from the coronavirus? Experts weigh in

Some Canadians concerned about coronavirus in the wake of one confirmed and another presumptive case in Canada have been strapping on surgical masks to go outside, but experts say that there’s no need for the public to start covering themselves up.

toronto.ctvnews.ca

“I think the important part here is trying to use them in the right context,” Dr. Susy Hota told CTV News on Friday.


Surgical masks are a common -- and necessary -- sight in a hospital setting, she said, where patients, family members, doctors and nurses are in a closed environment with numerous individuals impacted by various illnesses.
But that’s very different from wearing a surgical mask while walking down the street.
“At this time there’s absolutely no reason for people to be walking around wearing masks in public,” Hota said, adding that the only reason to do so would be on the advice of a health-care professional for a reason unrelated to coronavirus.

...even if you were on the very plane that the 2 cases were on...sounds so thoughtful! Now that is true expertize!

Chief Medical Officer of Health Dr. David Williams said his office has “never recommended the wearing of masks in public.”

Not in a crowded subway, bus, or elevator. Just don't! No need! So not in public!

So either be a catastrophe loon or listen to the top experts, anti-conspiracy pal. Which?

 

[Handlebars]

These top medical experts are sure puzzling, when the disease has a high kill rate and is spreading though human contact.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Well at least some mainstream news outlets are finally starting to catch up to the potential seriousness and scope of this ...and maybe acknowledging this is not just another flu outbreak or Sars situation...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...kely-to-be-effective-2020-01-24?mod=home-page

As coronavirus infections exceed 37,000, here’s how it spread so rapidly

It has now killed more people than SARS, although the fatality rate is still far lower than that of SARS.

www.marketwatch.com

Forbes, WSJ, and others have similar mentions. Still too little information that can be verified, is coming out of China. If we have to wait to see how it propagates in other countries, before determining the severity and containment measures (some might need to be 'draconian' and really impact commerce), its probably going to be too late. At least according to the guys with PHD's who know a thing or two about how this type and category of virus can spread.

P.S. the first link is a few days old, but was really buried back when it came out. Now its suddenly on page 1 of their website.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

This is fairly indicative of what the impact could be on commerce between China and every country, not just the US.

Excerpt from Forbes article:

"My consultancy had estimated that U.S.-China flights would carry about 7.08 million passengers for 2020, adding inbound and outbound travelers.

That number is now history.

Airlines – including those operating nonstop flights, and others, such as Korean, Asiana and Japan Airlines who connect passengers over their Asian hubs – can expect to see these revenue streams dry up very quickly. They probably have already.

Some Preliminary Traffic Estimates

As of today, and depending on the developments in China, through this June we are forecasting at least a 75% drop in passenger traffic between the USA and China. That figure sounds extreme, but as the knowledge of the nature and the extent of the new virus grows, it may actually be optimistic.

Cutting to the chase, airline flights between China and the USA are going to be financial disasters. That assumes, somewhat optimistically, they all will even continue to operate.

For one thing, leisure traffic – about 60% of the passenger base - is effectively ended. Gone. No more. Evaporated.

When the real facts are known about this virus, and how it is spreading, the number of folks wanting to visit China will be relegated to those way out on the fringe, assuming they would even be allowed to enter the country. Coming the other way, the government of the People’s Republic of China has now cut off all such outbound travel."

China-U.S. Air Traffic Is In Free-Fall

The coronavirus is threatening to put a stake in the heart of what was until now was thought to be potentially one of the fastest growth sectors in the airline business.

www.forbes.com

Extrapolate that to all forms of travel, and between cities and other cities within the country.

The above is exactly what Chris Martensen was alluding to, more than a week ago (PHD from Duke Medical University). In fact, he stated the only models that worked for containment, included completely shutting down air travel as soon as possible with this type of virus, with an R naught this high.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Actually, a large question that I have (and that maybe somebody here can answer) is:

How do you "lock down" a city of more than ten million people? What does that even mean?

Modern cities are really designed to allow large numbers of people to move in, out, and through them every day. So it isn't like you can lift a drawbridge and close the city gates and be done with it. Yes, you could certainly close airports and train stations, and with a little more effort block major roadways. But unless you have literally an army it would basically be impossible to completely "seal off" a large city.

 

[FlatSix911]

Update #4 from Chris Martensen.

Interesting perspective on how this is unfolding, and how MSM is far behind the curve, and also how containment is not being handled in a way that could potentially have a strong impact.

The airplanes still going in and out of many China cities, the news stories ranking this situation very low, and some countries medical scientists and experts actually taking this very seriously and estimating much higher counts of contagion. Not alarmist, not meant to panic, but simply to be properly informed.

Good video... here is the key takeaway in one summary graph of the Infections over Time.

We are far beyond the safe stage of a watch and wait attitude... the growth rate is now exponential and far earlier than the previous SARS epidemic.

Bottom line is that all data points to a far worse outbreak than reported and could result in a worldwide pandemic.

 

[Handlebars]

EBR friends, you can get 99% cleaning alcohol at places like electronics supply houses. Think past "normal" if you like to be prepared for incompetence to be the order of the day.
Why have brake lights on cars when driving carefully is more important? Duh!! Why not have BOTH?
"Just don't! Not for in public!"

 

[Handlebars]

I do agree the situation is serious.

However, I did read the Washington Times article. There was no hard evidence presented which points to this coronavirus outbreak being a bioweapon. None. Zero. Zilch.

Common sense would prompt a further question: how likely is it that such hard evidence could possibly have been adduced at this time?

All that was there was speculation from somebody who is labeled as an expert

What purpose does the above wording serve other than to cast suspicion and doubt on that person's opinion?

(and to be fair, probably is)

Then why did you apply the "somebody who is labeled as an expert" if you believe he probably IS an expert? Do you have an axe to grind?

Gene sequencing is relatively cheap, and a lot of smart people in the world are able to do it. There are also extensive datasets of the DNA of known organisms. A straightforward use of modern bioinformatics tools should make it possible, with a fairly high degree of accuracy, to know if humans hacked the genome of this virus somehow -- which if you could show it was hacked would make a good argument that it was part of some bioweapons development program. That's what I mean by hard evidence.

And what about forced fast evolution? Do you believe that method does not exist? What are YOUR qualifications to be preachy?

And to be fair in your demand, you should state that YOUR experts should already have presented this "HARD" evidence that it is NOT a weaponized strain. The biolab is very near ground zero.

 

[BrianK]

There are “unconfirmed” reports that this virus is displaying pneumonia, seizures and other neurological symptoms as well as kidney failure as presenting symptoms, before the more common “cold and flu” symptoms. Plus it’s transmissible prior to the development of any symptoms. These characteristics point to a virus that has been purposely tweaked to be used as a bioweapon, although it’s certainly not definitive.

Unfortunately, as this started in China under a totalitarian communist regime, none of the details we are hoping to see will be forthcoming.

 

[Cowlitz]

There are “unconfirmed” reports that this virus is displaying pneumonia, seizures and other neurological symptoms as well as kidney failure as presenting symptoms, before the more common “cold and flu” symptoms. Plus it’s transmissible prior to the development of any symptoms. These characteristics point to a virus that has been purposely tweaked to be used as a bioweapon, although it’s certainly not definitive.

Unfortunately, as this started in China under a totalitarian communist regime, none of the details we are hoping to see will be forthcoming.

What are your sources for this "unconfirmed" report?

This is why I hate the internet. It is a powerful tool which Is used irresponsibly. Anybody can pass on harmful rumors.

Our area lost a child to the flu yesterday.