In other news, estimates coming out of the Wuhan leg of the covid-march suggests that approximately 86% of actual infected were never recorded, for a factor of 7.1 to 1 unrecorded:recorded. it's worth pointing out that this includes computer modelling, and the modelling is heavily influenced by the input data, but that's another story...
science.sciencemag.org
Many virologists have speculated between a 6:1 ratio, all the way up to 20+:1 on the extreme, so the 7.1:1 seems reasonable.
Some were even mentioning in interviews that news outlets shouldn't be reporting the WHO's "3.4%" as it was based entirely on recorded cases, but they were largely drowned out by the latest political mudslinging from all sides, looking for a wedge.
If we apply to the WHO 3.4% mortality rate, the "real" mortality rate of those infected drops to 0.47%.
It's also worth pointing out that Italy has recently come under fire (though not really on the nightly news), because they were essentially being much looser in their definition of a "covid" death. As much 88% of the people who had covid-19 when they died, didn't die OF covid-19, according to a Dr. Ricciardi, an adviser to the Italian ministry of health. There's a number of factors at play here...
The country's high death toll is due to an ageing population, overstretched health system and the way fatalities are reported
www.telegraph.co.uk
The best medical evidence (not political angling from either side) suggests that Covid-19 is still has about 5 to 7 times a REAL mortality rate as an average flu, which IS a bad thing, but certainly not the plot to Contagion either. Voluntary work-from-home behaviour, combined with the closing down of large events/venues like nightclubs/concerts/sporting events made sense.
Toronto was a ghost town last week under this setup. That's fine. The whole goal was (originally) to "flatten the curve", and we were doing it.
We didn't need gov't edicts from any level of government. The only real gathering was on the weekend when people were going out for walks along the waterfront, just like in Vancouver.
Over the weekend, enough people complained about that on social media that it caught the attention of the reactionary mainstream news outlets, which caught the attention of the politicians which led to these new declarations (kind of like how a virus works, eh?).
I'm uncomfortable with the mandatory, because once it becomes mandatory, the temptation is to make it enforceable, by increasingly strict means.
Anyway, that's my rant.
Starting tonight, hugs will be an act of political defiance.
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