World War III

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Oberst said:
Well, since the thread is WW III and all the armchair generals are planning its cause, outcome and strategy, perhaps this Churchill quote meets your requirements:


  • Any clever person can make plans for winning a war if he has no responsibility for carrying them out.
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Can you tell me the author of this quote?
All your plans go out the window as soon as you get punched in the face.
 
Oberst said:
Well, since the thread is WW III and all the armchair generals are planning its cause, outcome and strategy, perhaps this Churchill quote meets your requirements:


  • Any clever person can make plans for winning a war if he has no responsibility for carrying them out.
Click to expand...
And the sadly misinformed and not too clever have even less problem forecasting. And with climate, then hindcasting by model makes the graph look like the forecasting job was great. "Holy Moley...they predicted Pinatubo with a climate model!"

1658873362846.png
 
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Europe on 20% of normal Russian gas.... already shivering...in fright. Talk about cutting off your nose to spite your face!
 
JES2020 said:
All it takes is one.
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You kind of miss the point here. The Rushka can’t know which ones work and do not work, so that seriously limits their options.

There’s no way in this situation that they’d risk a limited or tactical nuclear attack, since if even some of those weapons didn’t work that would tell the Americans a lot about the state of their nuclear deterrent and what the real threat Russia poses to the states.

About the only situation where it makes sense to launch with a seriously busted nuclear arsenal is when somebody else launches on you first and you have nothing left to lose.

If the Americans get good confirmation that the Russian arsenal is busted and have pretty precise information about how busted it is, it opens up some interesting opportunities for the Americans. Depending on how screwed the Russians are, it might make sense to push for an ABM shield in the short term that might make their deterrent 100% worthless.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
You kind of miss the point here. The Rushka can’t know which ones work and do not work, so that seriously limits their options.

There’s no way in this situation that they’d risk a limited or tactical nuclear attack, since if even some of those weapons didn’t work that would tell the Americans a lot about the state of their nuclear deterrent and what the real threat Russia poses to the states.

About the only situation where it makes sense to launch with a seriously busted nuclear arsenal is when somebody else launches on you first and you have nothing left to lose.

If the Americans get good confirmation that the Russian arsenal is busted and have pretty precise information about how busted it is, it opens up some interesting opportunities for the Americans. Depending on how screwed the Russians are, it might make sense to push for an ABM shield in the short term that might make their deterrent 100% worthless.
Click to expand...
No one except a madman would be willing to guess which atomic weapons will or will not actually explode. Even the mere idea that a country may have nukes, is enough to be a deterrent.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
You kind of miss the point here. The Rushka can’t know which ones work and do not work, so that seriously limits their options.

There’s no way in this situation that they’d risk a limited or tactical nuclear attack, since if even some of those weapons didn’t work that would tell the Americans a lot about the state of their nuclear deterrent and what the real threat Russia poses to the states.

About the only situation where it makes sense to launch with a seriously busted nuclear arsenal is when somebody else launches on you first and you have nothing left to lose.

If the Americans get good confirmation that the Russian arsenal is busted and have pretty precise information about how busted it is, it opens up some interesting opportunities for the Americans. Depending on how screwed the Russians are, it might make sense to push for an ABM shield in the short term that might make their deterrent 100% worthless.
Click to expand...
And how have your projections turned out so far? :)
Yours do not even make sense. The Russians have hypersonics that can deliver many nukes at once and the damage would be so widespread that the survivors would have no time to count how many were duds.
 
Your bad projections from as recent as April show how sad your ability is. The hit rates are what, maybe 16:1 in favor of Russia's, with weapons being poured into Ukraine all the time?
The nazi-supporting fools are digging a money pit for their own countries to fall into in full nazi embrace disgrace.

Mr. Coffee said:
And given the sixty percent failure rate of Russian long-range standoff weapons I have to question how much of a threat the few remaining available weapons could possibly be.
Click to expand...
 
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