With 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?

I liked that one:
'European Union sells 13 million cars to us. They do not buy from us. They have no cards' :D
I'd say the EU has a good thirteen million car(d)s a year.
 
What is cool is that I have motor and battery orders to place this week and the new 30% tariff takes place 1 minute after midnight Eastern time. I will write up the email requests and press send at 9:03 Pacific tonight. And pay in the morning.

This is what I keep seeing:

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I think if you look at the last five thousand years of human history you will find that prosperous and stable civilizations all had robust (and often surprisingly wide-ranging) trade networks (Rome traded with China and India two thousand years ago). "Self-sufficient" autarkies were much less prosperous and much less stable.

Modern manufacturing is very capital-intensive and highly technically specialized. And shipping costs are essentially zero. And with automation you can produce at enormous scale with relatively few factories making a given item. What you end up with is specific items might only be produced in one or two places in the world.

Also the "trade deficit" is an accounting mirage. Every year the entire world runs a trade deficit with itself. Which wouldn't be possible if it was not an artificial statistical creation that was measured cluelessly. And when we talk about a "trade deficit" we are always talking about physical merchandise and not services. Most of the US economy is about services so it isn't surprising that we'd run a "trade deficit" in physical goods. Services are badly and cluelessly accounted for in the trade statistics as well and that makes the numbers appear much different than they really are.

This was all patiently explained to me by a very kind economics grad student forty years ago. It is even more true today than it was then.
 
20250510_130903.jpg

Our server (12 of us at one time) from 3 nights ago at a small restaurant. The waitress and the server took care of 10 groups while we were there. Never felt left out by our waitress. Server showed up, waitress quickly set meals on table. Gotta love technology.
 
Letter to suppler today:

I would like to place orders for three DM02 motors 48V, with T-154 small displays, shipped to me. Please add about 12 hours to this order’s quote and placement for the new 30% tariffs, not the 145%. I am sorry for the extra work. It has been taxing for all with the self-inflicted chaos here and worldwide. My deepest apologies to those workers in the essential tech sector in your region and the impacts on our trust in mutual global relationships. I trust my relationship with you. I hold up and support you here.
I will pay you in the morning, California time.
Thanks again for your continued encouragement, assistance, and appreciation of the custom bike build photos.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
I think if you look at the last five thousand years of human history you will find that prosperous and stable civilizations all had robust (and often surprisingly wide-ranging) trade networks (Rome traded with China and India two thousand years ago). "Self-sufficient" autarkies were much less prosperous and much less stable.

Modern manufacturing is very capital-intensive and highly technically specialized. And shipping costs are essentially zero. And with automation you can produce at enormous scale with relatively few factories making a given item. What you end up with is specific items might only be produced in one or two places in the world.

Also the "trade deficit" is an accounting mirage. Every year the entire world runs a trade deficit with itself. Which wouldn't be possible if it was not an artificial statistical creation that was measured cluelessly. And when we talk about a "trade deficit" we are always talking about physical merchandise and not services. Most of the US economy is about services so it isn't surprising that we'd run a "trade deficit" in physical goods. Services are badly and cluelessly accounted for in the trade statistics as well and that makes the numbers appear much different than they really are.

This was all patiently explained to me by a very kind economics grad student forty years ago. It is even more true today than it was then.
Click to expand...
I agree with pretty much all of what you've said. However, you left some important parts out.

First, intellectual property theft, which significantly degrades the business and reputation of the creator, and dumps copied product on the market at prices that the creator cannot sustain. A good example in our world is the SR Suntour NCX suspension seatpost. Almost every single one sold on Amazon is a clone. They are not just stealing the design, changing a detail or two, and marketing it under some made up jibberish Chinese manufacturer's name. They brazenly sell them as the genuine product. They copy the markings, type fonts, every detail. This is not a free market. This is theft by any measure.

Second, non-tariff trade barriers. In many countries, products that are core to a country's economy are protected, to the point that competitive products from other countries are not allowed to be sold in that country at all, or at such a low level that it's not economical for the competing country to export there. These are not tariffs, these are export controls. I don't have a huge problem with a country protecting their economy, but let's realize that they all do it. There is no such thing as 100% free trade, nor should there be.

I could go on, but this is a bike forum.
 
stompandgo said:
I could go on, but this is a bike forum.
Click to expand...
Great. Explain to me how the US Government's bull-in-a-china-shop antics over the last four months solve those problems. And explain to me how solving this problem is worth the risk driving the US economy in a major recession.
 
Last edited:
Mr. Coffee said:
I think if you look at the last five thousand years of human history you will find that prosperous and stable civilizations all had robust (and often surprisingly wide-ranging) trade networks (Rome traded with China and India two thousand years ago). "Self-sufficient" autarkies were much less prosperous and much less stable.

Modern manufacturing is very capital-intensive and highly technically specialized. And shipping costs are essentially zero. And with automation you can produce at enormous scale with relatively few factories making a given item. What you end up with is specific items might only be produced in one or two places in the world.

Also the "trade deficit" is an accounting mirage. Every year the entire world runs a trade deficit with itself. Which wouldn't be possible if it was notReds an artificial statistical creation that was measured cluelessly. And when we talk about a "trade deficit" we are always talking about physical merchandise and not services. Most of the US economy is about services so it isn't surprising that we'd run a "trade deficit" in physical goods. Services are badly and cluelessly accounted for in the trade statistics as well and that makes the numbers appear much different than they really are.

This was all patiently explained to me by a very kind economics grad student forty years ago. It is even more true today than it was then.
Click to expand...
the beef was" turning it into a service economy. I cannot consider that a bad thing,the thing the "Reds" notice and I think it galls them-a lot of dark skinned people come into this country and are willing to do the "service jobs" so spurned by the pampered Americans( hate me later)
 
It has suddenly occurred to me:
Perhaps it is the time the American could appreciate quality and stop buying Chinese scrap metal? A good way to shift the trade balance :D
I wonder what e-bike Roamers rides.
 
Stefan Mikes said:
It has suddenly occurred to me:
Perhaps it is the time the American could appreciate quality and stop buying Chinese scrap metal? A good way to shift the trade balance :D
I wonder what e-bike Roamers rides.
Click to expand...
I am not saying "Lectric" bikes are American made at least they listened to what the "proletariat" I imagine more low to mid class Americans would buy better bikes if they could afford them one "west coaster" on here builds bikes that people actually like and want.
 
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