With 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?

[stompandgo]

I think if you look at the last five thousand years of human history you will find that prosperous and stable civilizations all had robust (and often surprisingly wide-ranging) trade networks (Rome traded with China and India two thousand years ago). "Self-sufficient" autarkies were much less prosperous and much less stable.

Modern manufacturing is very capital-intensive and highly technically specialized. And shipping costs are essentially zero. And with automation you can produce at enormous scale with relatively few factories making a given item. What you end up with is specific items might only be produced in one or two places in the world.

Also the "trade deficit" is an accounting mirage. Every year the entire world runs a trade deficit with itself. Which wouldn't be possible if it was not an artificial statistical creation that was measured cluelessly. And when we talk about a "trade deficit" we are always talking about physical merchandise and not services. Most of the US economy is about services so it isn't surprising that we'd run a "trade deficit" in physical goods. Services are badly and cluelessly accounted for in the trade statistics as well and that makes the numbers appear much different than they really are.

This was all patiently explained to me by a very kind economics grad student forty years ago. It is even more true today than it was then.

I agree with pretty much all of what you've said. However, you left some important parts out.

First, intellectual property theft, which significantly degrades the business and reputation of the creator, and dumps copied product on the market at prices that the creator cannot sustain. A good example in our world is the SR Suntour NCX suspension seatpost. Almost every single one sold on Amazon is a clone. They are not just stealing the design, changing a detail or two, and marketing it under some made up jibberish Chinese manufacturer's name. They brazenly sell them as the genuine product. They copy the markings, type fonts, every detail. This is not a free market. This is theft by any measure.

Second, non-tariff trade barriers. In many countries, products that are core to a country's economy are protected, to the point that competitive products from other countries are not allowed to be sold in that country at all, or at such a low level that it's not economical for the competing country to export there. These are not tariffs, these are export controls. I don't have a huge problem with a country protecting their economy, but let's realize that they all do it. There is no such thing as 100% free trade, nor should there be.

I could go on, but this is a bike forum.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I could go on, but this is a bike forum.

Great. Explain to me how the US Government's bull-in-a-china-shop antics over the last four months solve those problems. And explain to me how solving this problem is worth the risk driving the US economy in a major recession.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

It has suddenly occurred to me:
Perhaps it is the time the American could appreciate quality and stop buying Chinese scrap metal? A good way to shift the trade balance
I wonder what e-bike Roamers rides.

 

[PedalUma]

are willing to do the "service jobs"

Yes, who will pick those strawberries stooping low to the ground, when it is 106F (41C) in California's Central Valley; white Afrikaners granted persecuted emergency refugee status? What about actual refugees? Tom Petty didn't sing about them.

Exactly! The cheap Chinese stuff like Brose: https://www.brose-china.cn/cn-en/brose-in-china/locations/

 

[BigNerd]

And the current premium is 30%?

It keeps bouncing around so I'm not sure.

 

[DaveMatthews]

It has suddenly occurred to me:
Perhaps it is the time the American could appreciate quality and stop buying Chinese scrap metal? A good way to shift the trade balance
I wonder what e-bike Roamers rides.

I "think" it's a Gazelle. Maybe a C7 or C8

 

[Mr. Coffee]

the beef was" turning it into a service economy. I cannot consider that a bad thing,the thing the "Reds" notice and I think it galls them-a lot of dark skinned people come into this country and are willing to do the "service jobs" so spurned by the pampered Americans( hate me later)

When you think "services" you are thinking about flipping burgers. I'm thinking about engineering and legal and financial services.

You can't really export cheeseburgers, but you can export a franchise selling cheeseburgers and the royalties and franchise payments flow back to the US.

 

[PedalUma]

C7

When you think "services" you are thinking about flipping burgers. I'm thinking about engineering and legal and financial services.

You can't really export cheeseburgers, but you can export a franchise selling cheeseburgers and the royalties and franchise payments flow back to the US.

I just worked on a C7 and it went out the door 10 minutes ago.

I did an AI overview of McDonald's International Sales; it is 60% of their business. And where they have local in-country partners, growth is highest. I was thinking that people would stay away from an iconic US based company given the current administration's policies internationally, undermining good will. If I was on a Mediterranean Island that is the last place I would want to eat. I would want fresh and local, such as fresh fish, not processed and frozen half-a-world away, and then fried with tartar sauce and put on a mushy white bun.

 

[chunk]

Yes, who will pick those strawberries stooping low to the ground, when it is 106F (41C) in California's Central Valley; white Afrikaners granted persecuted emergency refugee status? What about actual refugees? Tom Petty didn't sing about them.

Exactly! The cheap Chinese stuff like Brose: https://www.brose-china.cn/cn-en/brose-in-china/locations/

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Great we're importing more racists now, just what we need.

 

[Roamers]

I wonder what e-bike Roamers rides

Gazelle C380. We don't do low quality crap.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Gazelle C380. We don't do low quality crap.

"Europe is nastier than China".

Buying EU e-bikes is wrong for a MAGA Republican.

 

[PedalUma]

You are ignoring content by this member. Show ignored content

I am so glad that I am missing 1/2. It is so easy, like the Locomotion, my little baby sister can do it too. Just hit Ignore, ignore, ignore; And do the locomotion with me. Everybody can do it, it's so easy, just swing your hips now, jump back, jump back. Everybody is doing the dance now together. Come on baby. Hit the ignore button.
.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Again how do you export candy stripers?

The vast majority of "services trade" is royalties and licensing fees. Followed by consulting fees. In theory a world where remote work was pretty universal would allow things like legal services and accounting and engineering to be traded as well, but that in practice isn't as common and usually falls under "consulting".

I suspect that royalties and licensing fees are under-counted in the trade figures as well.

 

[PedalUma]

Again how do you export candy stripers?

I am not going to tell you. Nor will I say what happens when they get there. I am not going to fall for that trap again!

 

[PedalUma]

I will imaging partly due to service workers, I became very ill last night. I had a salad at a place called Habit Burger in the afternoon. It is normally fresh and delicious. 6-hours later the hoses where at full blast at both ends. I could not keep down water until 7 AM. I was supposed to help with bike to work day. At least I have a good book. The decorative painter Klimt, joins forces with Freud and Jung with the bride of Frankenstein in 1911 Vienna. I have a signed copy of Anima Rising. It is super funny.

 

[Roamers]

Everyone can relax. The 60" 500# slides I purchased just before tarriffs that were up 40% 3 weeks ago are back down to what I paid for them.

 

[DaveMatthews]

Meanwhile...

A rare warning from Walmart during a US trade war: Higher prices are inevitable

Walmart, which became the nation’s largest retailer by making low prices a priority, has found itself in a place it’s rarely been: Warning customers that prices will rise for goods ranging from bananas to car seats.

apnews.com

 

[Gionnirocket]

Meanwhile...

A rare warning from Walmart during a US trade war: Higher prices are inevitable

Walmart, which became the nation’s largest retailer by making low prices a priority, has found itself in a place it’s rarely been: Warning customers that prices will rise for goods ranging from bananas to car seats.

apnews.com

Ironic as they were one of the major culprits pushing manufacturing to China.
Long while back I saw a good documentary showing how their scrupulous bidding process all but ruined Rubbermaid.. which had been continuously rated one of the best companies to work for.

 

[Chargeride]

Wayhey the UK leads Europe in growth...latest completely invented for propaganda purposes figures show.

 

[Roamers]

Meanwhile...

A rare warning from Walmart during a US trade war: Higher prices are inevitable

Walmart, which became the nation’s largest retailer by making low prices a priority, has found itself in a place it’s rarely been: Warning customers that prices will rise for goods ranging from bananas to car seats.

apnews.com

Gotta feel sorry for those that shop at Walmart.

You probably are hearing this here first: there is a certain group that believes a flat tax would be a good thing. Trump knows he can't get that passed so went to tariffs on cheap Chinese crap so the 50ish% that don't pay federal income tax will now contribute to the general fund.

'Merica: pay your dues to belong to the club.