US Manufactured Ebikes; Cost/Benefit Discussion.

[Gator]

We started an interesting discussion about building/manufacturing electric bikes in the US. I personally would like to see manufacturing of all kinds, not just ebikes, return to the United States and it remain a component of a strong economy and stepping stone for citizens to enter the middle class. How could it be done?

I wonder what the community here is thinking. Check out the discussion; https://electricbikereview.com/foru...e-for-longer-commute.23991/page-2#post-151631 and post your thoughts or analysis.

 

[rich c]

I pay little attention to such things, but I thought our economy is strong.

 

[LimboJim]

3D printing could make "...carbon fabrication affordable enough that bike manufacturers could make cost-competitive frames in the US."

Full article: https://www.bicycling.com/news/a21051344/3d-printed-carbon-bike/

 

[p0ppyman]

3D printing could make "...carbon fabrication affordable enough that bike manufacturers could make cost-competitive frames in the US."

Full article: https://www.bicycling.com/news/a21051344/3d-printed-carbon-bike/

Yep I was just about to drop that link! I worked in Jim's group at Google. He was a bike person. He used to tell a story that when his wife was out of town he would bring his bike into the living room to work on it while he watched YouTube videos on how to make the modifications he wanted to make. Really smart guy and nice too. One of the best leaders I've worked for in my long career.

Hope they are successful and help shape the bike industry going forward.

 

[Ravi Kempaiah]

I have few friends who work for Apple and have had long discussions with them on this topic. To put it simply, it is almost impossible to bring those jobs back to the US from China.

This was featured on Forbes and business insider.

" how much would it cost to make an iPhone in the United States?"

https://www.quora.com/How-much-woul...ica/answer/Glenn-Luk?share=e1971adc&srid=UcEd

Similarly,
US simply doesn't have the supply chain to manufacture ebikes here. In Taiwan, within stones throw distance, you can find the following manufacturers :

SRAM (avid, Rockshox) , FOX racing, Shimano, Tektro, SR Suntour, Schwalbe, DT Swiss, factories of Giant, Trek and Specialized, Selle Royale.. The list goes on.
People have invested their lives into make that happen and thousands of people live close to that industrial complex.

To build that kind of supply chain, it would take years here and I'm still not optimistic here because this country is not like Netherlands where bikes are considered serious, not toys.

 

[rich c]

3D printing could make "...carbon fabrication affordable enough that bike manufacturers could make cost-competitive frames in the US."

Full article: https://www.bicycling.com/news/a21051344/3d-printed-carbon-bike/

I retired as a model maker at Caterpillar Inc. in 2014. 3d printing has to exponentially improve before I trust a bike frame to that method of manufacturing. Just because you can control an extruder with a computer, does not make it a miracle manufacturing machine. I worked with 3d printers, they are fraught with an incredible amount of problems. From simple material quality issues, to parts with internal stresses due to differential material curing. But, I'm already not a fan of resin providing a strong long term structural part. I would definitely not want to ride a 5 year old carbon fiber frame!

 

[Ann M.]

Manufacturing an ebike is more than just the frame, motor & battery. The latest news is on another Tariff list just dropped yesterday that now includes a 10% tariff on pretty much every single component used to make any bike, electric or not. That one will go into effect Sept. after an open discussion period.

We simply do not have the infrastructure in place for that type of manufacturing and it is unrealistic to think it could be done in a timely or affordable manner in a couple of years time. Same thoughts for manufacturing lithium battery cells. We are not even a primary source for the ores needed to make the cells.

Agree with rich c about the wide variance in quality of carbon fiber frames. A 3d printed frame would still be costly and is better as an initial point of development but not for mass production. Remember, the analog bike world is considerably larger than our ebike universe.

 

[harryS]

How could manufacturingmake a comeback in the USA? Well, if the $15/hour holds up for fast food and coffee shops, it cannot be done. A friend of mine ran a shop in Shenzen. He used to chortle about how much he didn't pay his workers. It was like $15 a week (120 yuan) to start. They did get two meals.

 

[rich c]

How could manufacturingmake a comeback in the USA? Well, if the $15/hour holds up for fast food and coffee shops, it cannot be done. A friend of mine ran a shop in Shenzen. He used to chortle about how much he didn't pay his workers. It was like $15 a week (120 yuan) to start. They did get two meals.

And I don't consider $15/hr a living wage either. I doubt if many of us eBike enthusiasts worked for $15. I once worked for $3.30/hr when I joined the work force in 1972, but I mean now. eBiking is a luxury item for the majority, but doubling or tripling the price will price most of us out of the market..

 

[Ravi Kempaiah]

Well, if the $15/hour holds up for fast food and coffee shops, it cannot be done. A friend of mine ran a shop in Shenzen. He used to chortle about how much he didn't pay his workers. It was like $15 a week (120 yuan) to start. They did get two meals.

"There’s a confusion about China … the popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I’m not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is, China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago and that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view…
… the reason is because of the skill … and the quantity of skill in one location … and the type of skill it is. The products we do require really advanced tooling. And the precision that you have to have in tooling and working with the materials that we do are state-of-the-art. And the tooling skill is very deep here.

In the U.S. you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields."

Here is a video discussing that..

 

[MisterM]

We started an interesting discussion about building/manufacturing electric bikes in the US. I personally would like to see manufacturing of all kinds, not just ebikes, return to the United States and it remain a component of a strong economy and stepping stone for citizens to enter the middle class. How could it be done?

I wonder what the community here is thinking. Check out the discussion; https://electricbikereview.com/foru...e-for-longer-commute.23991/page-2#post-151631 and post your thoughts or analysis.

A vibrant US manufacturing blue collar sector won't ever re-emerge - unless perhaps US wages continue their 4+ decade-long stagnation so that they are competitive with the 3rd World again. Until then, there's little chance American unskilled labor can compete while it remains 5-10-20x more costly.

If you want a vibrant manufacturing sector, it needs to be for high-valued-added specialty machinery/products where wages aren't the critical cost component - Germany has that segment fully in hand and it seems extremely unlikely the US could compete absent radical changes (ie, vastly more emphasis on STEM educations and vocational training).

 

[MisterM]

"There’s a confusion about China … the popular conception is that companies come to China because of low labor cost. I’m not sure what part of China they go to but the truth is, China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago and that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view…
… the reason is because of the skill … and the quantity of skill in one location … and the type of skill it is. The products we do require really advanced tooling. And the precision that you have to have in tooling and working with the materials that we do are state-of-the-art. And the tooling skill is very deep here.

In the U.S. you could have a meeting of tooling engineers and I’m not sure we could fill the room. In China you could fill multiple football fields."

Here is a video discussing that..

That video is hugely self-serving propaganda. Apple's margins are gigantic and could easily afford to build/assemble with US labor. Boeing can build intricate/complicated planes. GE can build highly technical jet engines. Both take massive engineering/manufacturing talent that is home-grown. Apple could single-handedly reinvigorate cell phone production if it wanted.

 

[Barry S]

IMO, we've become a nation of entertainers. Turn the TV on and there's nothing on but "The Voice", "So you think you can dance", "American Idol", etc. Granted, "So you think you can code" probably wouldn't have much of an audience, but from my chair it seems like the majority of young adults (under 30) are spending all their time and energy looking for the Golden Ticket. Other than growing food, do we make anything anymore in the US besides "safe spaces?"

I think the key to successful manufacturing anywhere is automation. With automation you need engineers, software developers, hardware technicians, etc. to support the system and design even better ones. However, when a prominent Honolulu company is offering only $50k salary for someone with a Bachelor's degree in Engineering AND 2 years experience you have to wonder why anyone would bother taking on a large student loan debt to pursue that field.

Okay, getting off the soap box.

 

[Ravi Kempaiah]

That video is hugely self-serving propaganda. Apple's margins are gigantic and could easily afford to build/assemble with US labor. Boeing can build intricate/complicated planes. GE can build highly technical jet engines. Both take massive engineering/manufacturing talent that is home-grown. Apple could single-handedly reinvigorate cell phone production if it wanted.

There is certain truth to it and perhaps lot of greed. They are sitting on a $280 Billion cash surplus and I wonder what they do with it?

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/01/apple-earnings-q1-2018-how-much-money-does-apple-have.html

Without reinvesting in education (safe schools)/infrastructure for future generations, I don't see a bright future. How many "Apple fellowships" and "scholarships" do we see in schools and colleges? They could easily fund all the kids here for a fantastic STEM education.

In that regard, I have immense respect for Warren Buffet and Gates' charity work. They do so much more than just business. That kind of global, inclusive approach is missing in many businesses.

I grew up in India, I despised the "caste" system. I came to the US, I don't see "caste'sim" but a LOT of class'ism and decimation of the middle class. I will stop because the discussion will turn into something more philosophical which is not the primary foci of this thread.

 

[rich c]

That video is hugely self-serving propaganda. Apple's margins are gigantic and could easily afford to build/assemble with US labor. Boeing can build intricate/complicated planes. GE can build highly technical jet engines. Both take massive engineering/manufacturing talent that is home-grown. Apple could single-handedly reinvigorate cell phone production if it wanted.

Careful how you use that home-grown descriptor to American made product. I had two careers at Caterpillar Inc. During the first 15 years, I worked with a very high percentage of white European descended engineers. Probably 95%. I left for 11 years to pursue my own business. I returned and put in another 15 years. I'd estimate that as much as 50% in some departments, the engineers were a mix of people from around the world. Many on work visas, many working for temp agencies, and work being sent around the world to contract engineering firms. In a healthy American company today, there is a strong mix of world people at world wide locations. And I applaud that change!

 

[Ann M.]

@MisterM, the problem with your statements is that you assume that unskilled laborers can do all of the work necessary to build every segment of an ebike or other electronic devices on the cheap. That is incorrect. The issue is we do not have the skilled labor force and we do not invest enough in training for workers leaving or left behind by other industries.

 

[Gator]

I see most of the middle class in the US being left behind as the new middle class develops in China, India, etc. The middle class jobs that are developing in other countries appear to be tech driven or benefit from advances in tech while the middle class jobs in the US appear to be what is left over from the 20th century. I know this is not completely the case, but seems to be the norm or trend. I hope the US can keep, maintain, and develop a solid manufacturing base so our population can continue to thrive. That population is multi-cultural and diverse so I want to be clear I am not just talking about white males prosperity. The production of ebikes would be a tiny fraction of a manufacturing base, but we need to compete in as many different manufacturing streams as possible.

 

[MisterM]

Careful how you use that home-grown descriptor to American made product. I had two careers at Caterpillar Inc. During the first 15 years, I worked with a very high percentage of white European descended engineers. Probably 95%. I left for 11 years to pursue my own business. I returned and put in another 15 years. I'd estimate that as much as 50% in some departments, the engineers were a mix of people from around the world. Many on work visas, many working for temp agencies, and work being sent around the world to contract engineering firms. In a healthy American company today, there is a strong mix of world people at world wide locations. And I applaud that change!

As an immigrant myself, living in the most populous/wealthiest/diverse/liberal state for 40+ years, I suspect my world view of America is less European-centric than most. Made in America has never impied Made by European-descendants in my mind. Quite the contrary.

 

[ebikemom]

"... the truth is, China stopped being the low labor cost country many years ago and that is not the reason to come to China from a supply point of view…
]

Um, I believe the average salary in China is $300/year. It may not be the cheapest place in the world to make things, but very cheap, it is.

 

[ebikemom]

How many labor hours does it take to make an e-bike?