it will be very interesting to see what the trend of ebike sales is over the years. by far the largest market is asia, which has a pretty wide range of regulations and approaches, from ultra-stringent japan to the wild west of various parts of china.
in 2019 about 3 million ebikes were sold in europe, or one per 250 people. one assumes it continued to grow during the pandemic, call it one per 200 people. the U.S. market passed a million ebikes last year or this year, so one per 330 people. rapidly approaching a similar ratio to europe, despite the lack of good infrastructure. i haven't cycled much of europe but i assume the average level of infrastructure is higher, with extreme high spots like the low and nordic countries, and relatively lower spots in spain and so on. by comparison there are relatively fewer areas of good infrastructure in the united states, with some high spots in a few western and/or coastal cities. one wonders if rapid uptake of ebikes in the united states despite crappy infrastructure is aided by faster, more robust, more powerful bikes?
I can’t speak for Europeans, because I am from the US, but I have ridden many happy kilometers primarily through the Czech Republic and Slovakia. From my perspective, cycling and general attitude regarding cycling tend to be very different depending on culture. Europeans generally have a much greater love of cycling in general as a spectator sport, participant sport and as way mode of transportation or recreation.
Then there is the USA. The land of diesel trucks that are modified for the sole purpose of “blowing coal” so they can terrorize and assault cyclists and pedestrians, monster trucks and anything else that makes us feel powerful, (but it is home and still the only place that I want to live, and before you say anything, I served in uniform and love my country, so I have no intention of leaving, thanks).
Not all Americans are like this and the vast majority are decent, caring people, but as with those that abuse the throttle, the “problem children” get most of the attention and are generally the reason the laws exist in the first place, (kind of ironic that they seem to be the ones that cry the loudest about the very laws that they helped to cause).
Serious cyclists are often looked upon as elitists, and on this very forum, called “clown suit wearing elitists”. As a longtime cyclist, I have been the victim of harassment by people feeling empowered by the power that they feel while driving, (ironically, it is probably more of an inferiority complex or overcompensation that they are reacting to). I had a good friend assaulted by a couple guys in a pick’em’up truck. One leaned out the window and shoved her, causing her to lose control and end up with serious, but fortunately, not life threatening injuries, (although they could have been). She is an elite athlete. She is an “official” runner in the Boston Marathon and other endurance races. She races road bikes as a semi-pro. She is a sweet and beautiful woman. She did nothing to provoke the attack other than probably making the people in the truck feel inferior by her very existence.
I think that that same mentality carries over to other activities, (power boats vs paddle craft and sailboats, big 4x4s vs compact cars, motorcycle vs motor scooter…). It doesn’t seem to matter that the kayak or sailboat requires more skill and effort. What seems to be all important is the piece of equipment that provides the feeling of power and that you can have it with little or no effort, (instant gratification).
A throttle can be useful and for some it probably greatly enhances their ability to get out and enjoy life. For others, it might make a commute easier and therefore more obtainable. For others, it might just be something that they like having, (peace of mind, convenience, supplementing their own effort, just liking it…. That is all valid and fine, and none of my concern. My concern is when people break the laws, because they give ebikes a bad name, can create an unsafe situation or can cause a more generalized ban on ebikes.
Addressing the future, I don’t think that it is a one size fits all. Dirt roads in Vermont are very different from a congested urban environment. I trekking bike that works well in Germany is probably not a great fit for competitive cycling. Classes of e-bikes are a good start. Education and mutual respect is also very important. If the yahoos push the envelop repeatedly, the establishment will push back, and they hold the best cards, so I would rather work with them than oppose them or worse, antagonize them and call their hand.