How On Earth Are Small Bike Companies Going to Continue?

[phoenixtoohot]

Do you remember "industry life cycles" from economics 101? Clearly we are still in the emergence phase for e-bikes. I think you could argue that the big 4 were in the mature, possibly decline stage before the introduction of e bikes. See the second chart of bicycle sales in Europe for example ... the blue is conventional bikes and the green is e-bikes. It's similar to the auto industry, where initially there were scores of small companies producing cars, eventually leading to market maturity and saturation (last spurt was convincing us we needed 2 cars in the garage, LOL) and then consolidation (only 3 players now in the U.S.) Very similar patterns in cellular providers, online retail, etc.

Actually, I think the introduction of new technology (batteries mainly) have saved the big 4, much like sea-doos and ATV's saved most of the motorcycle dealers in the U.S. in the past 20 years. But there's still a lot of room for growth and eventual consolidation in the DTC e-bike market. There are probably 10, maybe 15, strong players now (Rad, Aventon, Sonders, EBC, etc) that offer good products at attractive prices (compared to the big 4). I think Hicks made a great point about the components. Here the sub-industry is mature, featuring companies like Shimano, Bosch, Bafang, and Samsung/LG in the battery space. I think as long as you go with bikes that use these "mature" component suppliers, you will be okay. Perhaps the next big differentiator will be the next big leap in battery technology, which may drive a whole new spurt of growth and innovation. Another near term driver may be when gas goes back up to $4.00 per gallon with the recent political environment in the U.S. For me personally, I am very happy that the DTC suppliers are still going strong, and i believe will continue to do so for several years.

 

[Taylor57]

The 'Big Four' surely have all the juice with the industry and THEY can't even get the parts they want. So my title question. I'm seriously curious. You'd think they would be going under every day. I'm worried about this.

IMO, it's a little like gambling. If you want a safe sure bet with little worry, buy a Trek, Bulls, R&M or Specialized. Another safe bet would be buy your next Ebike off of your dealers showroom floor. Another semi-safe bet to at least get a bike, is buy from Amazon-and if it never shows up, you probably get refunded. Any other option will involve different levels of risk. It is up to us as consumers to figure that part out based on our individual risk tolerances...

Class dismissed.

 

[AHicks]

Actually, the Big 4 are the most likely to use high-quality components from the major suppliers... Bosch, Brose, Shimano, and Yamaha.
These OEM companies have been in business for years and provide replacement parts. The smaller bike companies and their unique hardware/controllers... not so much.

After market controllers are cheap. MANY of the least expensive bikes are using ALL generic parts, found easily by anyone looking for them.

You need to do some shopping sir.....

 

[reed scott]

After market controllers are cheap. MANY of the least expensive bikes are using ALL generic parts, found easily by anyone looking for them.

You need to do some shopping sir.....

I think most are pretty much stopped dead by all those wires. What goes where? Sure gives me pause. I got away with changing the motor on my bike only because the connections are all sorted for you with configured ( only one way ) attachments. I'd be lost plugging up a generic controller.

 

[AHicks]

Don't want to wander too far here, but Bafang appears to be working towards standardized motor connections. With that one made, there's a 3 wire connection for the PAS sensor that shouldn't be too much of a challenge (positive, negative, sensor), another 3 wires for throttle (positive, negative, sensor), and 2 2 wire connections for your brake wires. Viewed as a whole, sure challenging, but viewed one component at a time? Maybe not that big a deal....

 

[FlatSix911]

After market controllers are cheap. MANY of the least expensive bikes are using ALL generic parts, found easily by anyone looking for them.

You need to do some shopping sir.....

Thanks, I haven't been called Sir since my time in the military.

Regarding the small players, Phoenix is correct that there will be a major consolidation and shakeout in the coming years.
I hope you are a DIY type when you place your bet on one of 100's of DTC companies being in business for the long term.
I have also seen this industry pattern repeat dozens of times from my tenure running tech companies. YMMV

View attachment 77731 View attachment 77733

 

[AHicks]

Thanks, I haven't been called Sir since my time in the military.

Regarding the small players, Phoenix is correct that there will be a major consolidation and shakeout in the coming years.
I hope you are a DIY type when you place your bet on one of 100's of DTC companies being in business for the long term.
I have also seen this industry pattern repeat dozens of times from my tenure running tech companies. YMMV

You're most welcome!

Regarding the small players, that's exactly my point! I'm betting MANY will not be around! That in mind, an owner of a carefully shopped bike, built using standardized components, will live a long happy life as those components (or parts to service them) will be available LONG after the dealer that sold them to you is gone.....

For the NON DIY'ers faced with repairs, I think maybe the cycle shops will mature as well. To the point this crap of "if we didn't sell it, we won't work on it" attitude is gone. They'll actually have a DIY'er on staff.......

 

[reed scott]

You're most welcome!

Regarding the small players, that's exactly my point! I'm betting MANY will not be around! That in mind, an owner of a carefully shopped bike, built using standardized components, will live a long happy life as those components (or parts to service them) will be available LONG after the dealer that sold them to you is gone.....

For the NON DIY'ers faced with repairs, I think maybe the cycle shops will mature as well. To the point this crap of "if we didn't sell it, we won't work on it" attitude is gone. They'll actually have a DIY'er on staff.......

From your lips to God's ears !

 

[STL ebiker]

I know a few people in the business and heard an additional perspective that has been limiting supply in addition to the COVID lockdowns at factories, warehouse, shipping, etc.

The shortages are centered on key components (brakes, cassettes, chain rings, etc. The manufacturers of these parts, like many of us that have been fortunate to see demand spike for their products during the lockdowns, don’t know how much, if not all of the demand spike will disappear once everyone is vaccinated. They don’t want to invest millions or tens of millions investing in new production lines only to see them idled 18 months later if demand drops to previous levels.

 

[kmccune]

I think Kyle Chittuck ( Bolten Ebikes) will be around till He gets tired of it, He seems to be able to hibernate( so to speak)
Some controllers are not too bad usually the 3 phase wires and Hall wires are easy enough, using a multimeter a person can work through the rest pretty well, and usally you can find a wiring diagram some where, trouble is Chinese to American English( "Happy Tulip" wire would probably leave someone scratching their head)

 

[penserv]

If you really are concerned, I would suggest you focus future bike buys less on the company you buy from, and more on the components used to build the bike. Bikes assembled using quality, generic, non proprietary parts will be serviceable for years - even if the company that sold it to you folds.

In these times, the above statement is one of the best reasons to DIY and build it with the best parts available. When I started my build in December, I was more focused on price, but now almost the sole criterion is availability. It sucks when the only place to get something is from China but at least your part won't get stuck in the Suez Canal. My bike is fast becoming an international bike. Just don't ask me to total up all the shipping costs.

 

[Mulezen]

As I posted yesterday my LBS contacted me about TREK coming in April now put off until. ‘22. Mentioned were a host of supply scaricities including all kinds of chips including BMS

 

[kmccune]

As I posted yesterday my LBS contacted me about TREK coming in April now put off until. ‘22. Mentioned were a host of supply scaricities including all kinds of chips including BMS

I am sorry for your disappointment, there is no telling the paradigm shift after this thing is over,I hope this isn't a test,I would rate everything a "D"