Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?

[Dallant]

In my humble opinion, in the E-bike space, if anyone can make the "Toyota Camry" of E-bikes i.e., very reliable, affordable to the masses and decent features .... will succeed without an iota of doubt.
What are those "decent features" and what would be the price point of a "Camry-level E-bike" ... I think the sweet spot is $2000-$2500 with excellent warranty/customer service.

I would be curious to hear what the community thinks about such a bike.

The Toyota analogy is interesting. The Camry certainly has been a phenomenal success but the Prius has been a game changer for the whole industry and is a more apt comparison to the ebike market, IMO. Toyota made their first ecar a hybrid (gas/electric) like the ebike has PAS (human/electric) and has dominated that market. Both cars have had similar decent features but (for those who cared) the Prius provided a more environmentally and operationally cost effective feature set. Nowadays that Prius feature set has infiltrated the market so fully that it’s become an optional model of most every vehicle type out there. Including the Camry.
The ebike has become a similar phenomenon in that every type of bike now has an e-version. The Prius tech came at a premium but was brought forth by a very well established company with a great record for reliability. That tech has now moved to much higher performance vehicles in cars but the bike industry is stopped from doing so in large part by laws restricting where that kind of bike can be ridden.
One could argue the “big“ three or four bike companies have done their part to legitimize/popularize the e-tech and truly provide a similar brick & mortar style service/warranty model. If this model (aided today by the C19 pandemic) can continue, its possible these companies can put forth a low $2k with safety features such as ABS, blind spot monitoring, turn signals, etc. in the not too distant future. Laws will continue to limit how high the performance will go. E-motorcycles will own that space and you won’t be on bike paths with them.

 

[Akrotiri]

Probably at least a dollar and eight cents but still .....

I thought Bosch and brose motors are manufactured in Germany. And shimano motors manufactured in Japan.

 

[kmccune]

Worked out ok for the Dell kid in his UT dorm room no?

"Dude, your getting a Dell"' or something similar.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

I thought Bosch and brose motors are manufactured in Germany.

Designed, yes. Manufactured, not necessarily.

 

[kmccune]

Here's the thing.

Many people do the research, to certain extent. Usually Google reviews or watch YouTube channel like EBR.

Now, here are some common internet bikes:
Rad Power, Himiway, Spark Bikes, Amego, Rize, Surface 604, AddMotor, Juiced, Biktrix, VoltBike, Magnum, DJ Bikes, BPM Imports, and many more.

Can you identify which one is good and which is not?
They all have professional looking websites, they all appear to be American or Canadian company, such as "Designed in America" , "Assembled in Canada" , etc.
They're all on EBR, and getting normal first impression reviews like pros and cons. They all seem to have similar price point, and very similar specs like Sumsung cells, Bafang motor, Tektro brakes, SR Suntour fork, etc.

Normal people have never heard of these ebike companies. What's the difference between Stromer and Himiway? Which one is better?
Is Rad Power a good company? what about Rize and Himiway? They sure look pretty much the same thing, they look very similar.. They have Bafang motor, etc.

People that are new to ebikes honestly get overwhelmed and confused.

I know a lady who purchased Trek right away.
She wasn't even looking for an ebike, but went to the Trek Store, and happen to test ride Trek Verve step thru, and bought it the very next day.
I asked her if she explored other ebike options, she said no, because she knew she couldn't go wrong with Trek, and had money to buy one right away.

If you have the money, yeah go ahead and by Trek, Yamaha, Cannondale, Specialized, etc.. from LBS, otherwise, you're kind of let with bunch of unknown brands.
I've been there.

I about to cry when I looked at the price tags on the "Specialized ", bikes in one of my nearer bike shops. Great looking bikes, I never even asked for a test ride. At least the owners are decent on repair work of any brand basically.

 

[drewberz]

I thought Bosch and brose motors are manufactured in Germany. And shimano motors manufactured in Japan.

Hungary and Germany, respectively. Displays and associated boards I would expect elsewhere (China).

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Hungary and Germany, respectively. Displays and associated boards I would expect elsewhere (China).

You tempt me to remove the skid-plate in my Vado to check the label on the motor...

 

[Explorer-1]

Pretty easy to have a machine wind motors, no need to do it by hand.

 

[FlatSix911]

Coming back to the topic of this thread:
To stay relevant in the E-bike market, any company has to be very agile and forward thinking. At some point, they also have to answer the question ..." Do we play this game where it is all about cost and no room for breakthrough innovation ?"

When the PC market became highly commoditized, IBM - once a famed manufacturer of PCs sold the business to Lenovo and moved towards higher level technologies like the cloud, AI, machine learning etc.
Competing in a PC market is a different beast compared to competing in the cloud and machine learning space. I think it was very smart of IBM to do that and take that jump.

In my humble opinion, in the E-bike space, if anyone can make the "Toyota Camry" of E-bikes i.e., very reliable, affordable to the masses and decent features .... will succeed without an iota of doubt.
What are those "decent features" and what would be the price point of a "Camry-level E-bike" ... I think the sweet spot is $2000-$2500 with excellent warranty/customer service.
I would be curious to hear what the community thinks about such a bike.

I agree completely with your analogy of the PC market. Ebikes will rapidly become a commodity item composed of readily available parts.

Having worked at IBM for a number of years, I know first-hand how this difficult transition will play out... only a few of the largest players will survive.

 

[kmccune]

Pretty easy to have a machine wind motors, no need to do it by hand.

You ever watch the videos of the Chinese woman working in the motor sweatshops? When a population grows too large each individual is worth less and the money"pools" in management and owners. One thing you can be sure of( it took a while for this thick headed cuss to figure it out) a lot of Asian enterprises basically use wage slaves( do you think the massage workers at "Happy Tulip" are well compensated?)
The same thing holds true all over as we hurtle toward the inevitable crash when the Plutocrats are no longer tolerated when certain political parties try to take away all protections for the common person.I am sorry this is not supposed to get political.
I honesty believe a decent dependable ebike could be made for under 2K, these very machines that are rapidly replacing the wage earner can assure that and the alloys and what not are common property now so to speak. There was a mention in one of these forums about independents with their little shops and what have you,I think there is an enterprise run by a woman who goes by "Rev-becca" who will actually come to you home to build or repair your ebike or regular bike for that matter, the "Geek -Sqaud" for ebikes and bicycles could become a more common thing as more standards are created and adhered to,I thought the 26" wheel was dead, now I can see why it isn't everybody is not as big as "Westerners" I can only hope something as crazy as 30" wheel set is not adopted with a 15 spd cassette( grow up 007).
We need innovation, not just to crush standards but to actually improve the breed. On the subject of components, do you think 'Tesla' will ever get in the ebike battery business if they ever catch up to the transportation demand? the 46 series might make a better ebike power group, not to mention the promised advances in power density.

 

[Akrotiri]

You tempt me to remove the skid-plate in my Vado to check the label on the motor...

I checked my battery and it is indeed made in Hungary.

Although I’m not dropping the motor to see where it’s made, curiosity is what killed the cat or so the saying goes.

 

[GypsyTreker]

To my way of thinking @BET and @Dallant pretty much define the two primary buyers market. One is ok with doing some research, spending less and willing to risk some headaches using email to correspond in order to deal with issues. Fitting real needs based on real usage is the perfect market for inexpensive DTC eBikes. On the other hand, some folk don't want that headache and if there is going to be one, have an LBS to make it go away, or at least share in your headache, in person. My beef is that the idea a brick and mortar store with employees is somehow above other business models is ludicrous. This is an attitude I have delt with for years in local music stores. The internet isn't fair. Guitar Center is destroying my business. Buying my guitar on line is killing neighborhood sellers. In fact I think what's killing Ma and Pa is their attitude of Us against them ( those that buy outside their business model). I have to believe once the dust settles and the big boys don't force their accoustic dealers to stock eBikes they don't want to carry (organics? Lol) things will straighten out and the consumer will win, big time. The Lenny's model will dominate. Brick and Mortar and Internet with multiple low to higher end lines. I suspect we will see it in the form of a corporate approach with nationwide branding and national locations and service centers. What HD taught the motorcycle industry was this: If you want a successful, prosperous dealership we can get you there, but you WILL up your game. If you don't want to play, go home.

 

[Dallant]

To my way of thinking @BET and @Dallant pretty much define the two primary buyers market. One is ok with doing some research, spending less and willing to risk some headaches using email to correspond in order to deal with issues. Fitting real needs based on real usage is the perfect market for inexpensive DTC eBikes. On the other hand, some folk don't want that headache and if there is going to be one, have an LBS to make it go away, or at least share in your headache, in person. My beef is that the idea a brick and mortar store with employees is somehow above other business models is ludicrous. This is an attitude I have delt with for years in local music stores. The internet isn't fair. Guitar Center is destroying my business. Buying my guitar on line is killing neighborhood sellers. In fact I think what's killing Ma and Pa is their attitude of Us against them ( those that buy outside their business model). I have to believe once the dust settles and the big boys don't force their accoustic dealers to stock eBikes they don't want to carry (organics? Lol) things will straighten out and the consumer will win, big time. The Lenny's model will dominate. Brick and Mortar and Internet with multiple low to higher end lines. I suspect we will see it in the form of a corporate approach with nationwide branding and national locations and service centers. What HD taught the motorcycle industry was this: If you want a successful, prosperous dealership we can get you there, but you WILL up your game. If you don't want to play, go home.

So you want to compare a guitar and an ebike in complexity?
The idea that it’s wrong for me to want a local rep, who has easy and quick access to OEM parts/diagnostics/updates vs taking my chances with a $4k investment online is hilarious. What’s even funnier is that you assume I don’t research or buy online. I researched and waited three years for the market to mature so I wouldn’t be wasting my money.
As for folks buying online, there are people here with far more than just headaches. I don’t need or want that kind of headache or risk at this stage in my life. Whats great is I worked hard enough in my life that I can easily afford not to while supporting local business. I’m fine with guys like you gambling your money and coming on this forum trying to find help as happens on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis. It’s kinda fun to watch and reinforces my approach every day.

 

[rdowns]

To my way of thinking @BET and @Dallant pretty much define the two primary buyers market. One is ok with doing some research, spending less and willing to risk some headaches using email to correspond in order to deal with issues. Fitting real needs based on real usage is the perfect market for inexpensive DTC eBikes. On the other hand, some folk don't want that headache and if there is going to be one, have an LBS to make it go away, or at least share in your headache, in person. My beef is that the idea a brick and mortar store with employees is somehow above other business models is ludicrous. This is an attitude I have delt with for years in local music stores. The internet isn't fair. Guitar Center is destroying my business. Buying my guitar on line is killing neighborhood sellers. In fact I think what's killing Ma and Pa is their attitude of Us against them ( those that buy outside their business model). I have to believe once the dust settles and the big boys don't force their accoustic dealers to stock eBikes they don't want to carry (organics? Lol) things will straighten out and the consumer will win, big time. The Lenny's model will dominate. Brick and Mortar and Internet with multiple low to higher end lines. I suspect we will see it in the form of a corporate approach with nationwide branding and national locations and service centers. What HD taught the motorcycle industry was this: If you want a successful, prosperous dealership we can get you there, but you WILL up your game. If you don't want to play, go home.

I think it is a good thing that we have choices. I do agree it should not be us against them. I am also grateful that there is so much readily available help available on the internet for all of us, whichever choice we make.

 

[BigNerd]

The thing is, there really isn't a strong offering (or large variety) of sub $1500 bikes in LBS locations. Besides Aventon, most LBS start their ebike offerings at $1500.

This is where D2C comes in for those of us who can't afford ebikes in that price range.

So just by exclusion, both models will continue to exist.

If I'm going to spend around $2k or more, I will be buying at an LBS because once I've invested that much, I need some local support.

I'm not like @Taylor57 who can drop $3k+ on a bike with zero US presence and 3-4 months out.

 

[Taylor57]

The thing is, there really isn't a strong offering (or large variety) of sub $1500 bikes in LBS locations. Besides Aventon, most LBS start their ebike offerings at $1500.

This is where D2C comes in for those of us who can't afford ebikes in that price range.

So just by exclusion, both models will continue to exist.

If I'm going to spend around $2k or more, I will be buying at an LBS because once I've invested that much, I need some local support.

I'm not like @Taylor57 who can drop $3k+ on a bike with zero US presence and 3-4 months out.

Hey, I resemble that remark. I cant do it either, I think I just had about 2 bottles of wine and clicked

 

[GypsyTreker]

So you want to compare a guitar and an ebike in complexity?
The idea that it’s wrong for me to want a local rep, who has easy and quick access to OEM parts/diagnostics/updates vs taking my chances with a $4k investment online is hilarious. What’s even funnier is that you assume I don’t research or buy online. I researched and waited three years for the market to mature so I wouldn’t be wasting my money.
As for folks buying online, there are people here with far more than just headaches. I don’t need or want that kind of headache or risk at this stage in my life. Whats great is I worked hard enough in my life that I can easily afford not to while supporting local business. I’m fine with guys like you gambling your money and coming on this forum trying to find help as happens on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis. It’s kinda fun to watch and reinforces my approach every day.

Where did I state you don't research? I assume anyone buying a $4k bike would do so. So sorry if you persecieved any slight, none intended. I know you haven't seen me on here every hour asking for help, that's because, so far, I haven't needed any. The jist of my post was how I saw two distinct groups of buyers, I did not feel one had more validity than the other and let me be clear, this was simply my observation not fact, opinion. What's not so great is you assume those who don't or haven't worked hard their whole life can't afford your approach, nonsense on two counts. You don't know how hard others have worked and 2) you have no clue as to what they can and can't afford. My reference to guitars was the shop vs net as a comparison. As too complexity, you never watched a luthier reset the neck on an old accoustic or do a refret job, not that I was even comparing product complexities. As far as $4k ebikes? Yeah, we agree, I would probably go with a Giant since I like our dealer. That said, I can afford to throw away 5.33 eBikes before I reach the "risk" you have in your eBike. I say that because of the palm plant I do when I read about the consumer/dealer issues on here. So my suggestion, read the entire posts before you see them as an affront on you. Not only is your way not the wrong way, they are simply right for you, not me.....who cares? So let me get back to my rattie old porch sofa, crack open a fresh one and see what Ol AliBaba has on special today.....look a $900 elec car ..screw those Tesla idiots, LOL

 

[Stefan Mikes]

I checked my battery and it is indeed made in Hungary.

Although I’m not dropping the motor to see where it’s made, curiosity is what killed the cat or so the saying goes.

Although the Specialized 604 Wh batteries are made in China, a look under the hood (that is, under the skid-plate) showed "BROSE Antriebstechnik. Do not open." label on the motor. I might believe the motor was made in Germany.

 

[Taylor57]

Where did I state you don't research? I assume anyone buying a $4k bike would do so. So sorry if you persecieved any slight, none intended. I know you haven't seen me on here every hour asking for help, that's because, so far, I haven't needed any. The jist of my post was how I saw two distinct groups of buyers, I did not feel one had more validity than the other and let me be clear, this was simply my observation not fact, opinion. What's not so great is you assume those who don't or haven't worked hard their whole life can't afford your approach, nonsense on two counts. You don't know how hard others have worked and 2) you have no clue as to what they can and can't afford. My reference to guitars was the shop vs net as a comparison. As too complexity, you never watched a luthier reset the neck on an old accoustic or do a refret job, not that I was even comparing product complexities. As far as $4k ebikes? Yeah, we agree, I would probably go with a Giant since I like our dealer. That said, I can afford to throw away 5.33 eBikes before I reach the "risk" you have in your eBike. I say that because of the palm plant I do when I read about the consumer/dealer issues on here. So my suggestion, read the entire posts before you see them as an affront on you. Not only is your way not the wrong way, they are simply right for you, not me.....who cares? So let me get back to my rattie old porch sofa, crack open a fresh one and see what Ol AliBaba has on special today.....look a $900 elec car ..screw those Tesla idiots, LOL

You know what is cool? Guys like us having dialogue on the interweb. And the best part- 99.5% of the posters are gentleman and women.

 

[Gionnirocket]

So you want to compare a guitar and an ebike in complexity?
The idea that it’s wrong for me to want a local rep, who has easy and quick access to OEM parts/diagnostics/updates vs taking my chances with a $4k investment online is hilarious. What’s even funnier is that you assume I don’t research or buy online. I researched and waited three years for the market to mature so I wouldn’t be wasting my money.
As for folks buying online, there are people here with far more than just headaches. I don’t need or want that kind of headache or risk at this stage in my life. Whats great is I worked hard enough in my life that I can easily afford not to while supporting local business. I’m fine with guys like you gambling your money and coming on this forum trying to find help as happens on a daily (sometimes hourly) basis. It’s kinda fun to watch and reinforces my approach every day.

Complexity? There's not much on an ebike that can't be understood with a little research and the most basic of mechanics skills. Now if that's not you, then you definitely took the right approach. But understand that that is for you, not everyone. Also understand that I don't consider that to be an asset and that it comes at a premium not only when you purchase the bike, but every time you walk through the door for service. Nothing wrong with that at all... but realize that some can and actually prefer to do there own service. I'm at a place in my life where I can afford just about anything my heart desires. When covid started I was starting to think about ebikes and also for a way to keep my mind occupied.. so I decided to go with one of the cheapest ebike solutions available, a mtb conversion. I can honestly say that I'm very happy that I did. I learned a lot, kept my mind on something that I enjoy and rode my ass off and lost some weight. When it comes time for a new bike I may go for one of the big names or i may go for a DTC. The point is that I like having the option and I don't think that anyone doing things differently has made some kind of mistake.
Had someone mention ego?