Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?

[Art Deco]

VisiCalc already had people pretty excited, by the time 123 came along the market was ready for a lot of reasons. 123 though was truly a killer application.
At least in my area, dBase and then Clipper pulled in a lot of business customers also onto the PC. A lot of companies also went for PC based accounting applications such as the awful PeachTree and many others.

WordStar was an early word processor that was popular but easier ones cam around that were much less expensive. PageMaker and a then a host of DeskTop Publishing apps (e.g. Ventura and ....) was the second huge wave of PC adoption in the business world. Games always kept things interesting as well at that point.

The good old days!

Found on web dead ... downloads of Lotus 123 versions ... cost about $400 or $500 US when new. Wordstar about the same. I wrote my first business programs in dBase, and was an early adopter of Clipper and then SQL.
Link https://archive.org/download/Lotus123OLD

 

[antboy]

Here is a trip down memory lane... Acer, Compaq, Emachines, Gateway, Micron, Packard Bell, etc...

So what I'm taking away from this is that Acer should get into the e-bike game...

 

[antboy]

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I guess you could categorize ebikes into price parameters. ( examples parameters, easily changed)

1. Under $1,000
2. $1,000 to $2,000
3. $3000 to $5000
4. $5000 and above

As long as there are plenty of buyers in category 1 and 2, there will be ton of companies as there are now.

I'd agree with this, but also add that as long as Bosch/Shimano etc stay away from throttles (and it's fine that they do, not complaining because I LOVE my Shimano motor), there will be some upper end price room for e-bike makers using Bafang, like Biktrix, WattWagon and others using a higher tier of components, because some people want (need?) the throttle, but they also want a quality build.

 

[Art Deco]

In today's dollars, there will always be the high $$$ market bc Specialized and Trek both sell bikes for more than that that don't even come with pedals, much less a motor.

 

[Art Deco]

Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?​

I think you define the future market's winners and losers by buyers and buying habits. How many people will be buying and at what price range?

I guess you could categorize ebikes into price parameters. ( examples parameters, easily changed)

1. Under $1,000
2. $1,000 to $2,000
3. $3000 to $5000
4. $5000 and above

As long as there are plenty of buyers in category 1 and 2, there will be ton of companies as there are now.

I would think in terms of 3 price classes ... AFAIK nobody except amazon and ebay is under a grand total, and choices get rather slim over $4000. So under $2000, $2000 to $4000, and over $4000. Whatever. It's really the features that I expect to change, not the price...

 

[Kayakguy]

First real computer for me was a TRS-80 model 3 It looked like a SF movie set of the day. Green characters on black screens.

I remember when the big debate was between orange on black and green on black. You could count the pixels in each letter.

 

[Kayakguy]

I see an (admittedly imperfect) analogy to the craft beer industry. First come the pioneers: ie . Sierra Nevada, Giant. Then comes the explosion, followed by the realisation that many are competing for a diminishing slice of the pie, corporate buyouts, natural attrition, and eventually maturity (read that as dominance by a few). Until the next upstart disruptor arrives on the scene..

This smallish town of Bellingham (around 80-85,000) has at least 13 brew pubs. I can't keep up. Some of them produce outstanding beer. The local style favorite is IPA. Perhaps Alaskan can weight in here. I am pleased to have one within walking distance, and quite a few at easy e-bike distance.

 

[pmcdonald]

This smallish town of Bellingham (around 80-85,000) has at least 13 brew pubs. I can't keep up. Some of them produce outstanding beer. The local style favorite is IPA. Perhaps Alaskan can weight in here. I am pleased to have one within walking distance, and quite a few at easy e-bike distance.

I wholely credit a road trip starting in the Pacific Northwest with triggering a love of craft ales. You guys and gals are trail blazers in the scene.

 

[BEC111]

I remember doing payroll on a "Trash" 80 (ms:dos). When you think how fast that industry grew and the companies now a memory. Compaq , Osborn, Wang OMG lol

Original TRS80 ran CP/M which was a precursor to DOS. CP/M ran VisiCalc which was the first successful spreadsheet program. It also ran on the Apple IIe (also on CP/M). The success of VisiCalc in business showed IBM there might be a business opportunity in these tiny machines.

My first home PC was an Apple IIc with 128k (yes, K) of RAM two 140K floppy disc drives and a 9”(?) monochrome monitor. I eventually updated it to 512K and a faster processor (1 MHz to 9 MHz) with a RAM disc configurdown it ran faster than my IBM PS2 model 50 that had a 286 processor. (The term Person Computer and the acronym PC first appearEd in an Apple II commercial with Dick Cavett.)

BTW, that Apple IIc setup with the addition of a dot matrix printer cost about $2800. Think about what that amount buys today!