Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?

You ever watch the videos of the Chinese woman working in the motor sweatshops? .....
Not sure what you are trying to say, I'm not denying anything about how labor is managed in China. All I'm saying is if motors were manufactured in the US machines could be used to do it and thus the making of the motors would not be the economic bottleneck/show stopper in this scenario. The US need a larger market for bikes though probably before any big changes in the supply chain is warranted. However the biggest barrier to change is the desire to do so.
 
Wondering how the market will shake out in the medium term future.
I notice that carmakers are relatively few. A bunch of big names that everyone knows. Start up costs are too high and complicated

but what about ebike makers? There are so many companies out there who are basically ordering 100 units from overseas and having the factory slap a logo on it with zero design or engineering modifications. Can it possibly be a wild wild west forever?

I wonder if it could shape up to be like the computer market. Always a couple of big brands but still tons of room for basically no name brands because it is so trivial to get the hardware to build a computer these days.

if so then maintenance is a huge market opportunity if local bike shops aren’t able or willing to touch ebikes. It’s inconceivable that very many customers will want to maintain a bike themselves. I suspect that much like third party extended warranties for gadgets that eBay offers, it may be normal for people to buy a third party, real life, come to your house or take it to a nearby physical location repair warranty for these internet ordered e-bikes.
One of the many companies promoting this white label experience is Eunorau Bikes. They have sellers that contact independent small businesses every day and offer FOB prices on bikes that can be quickly ordered with a 40% margin for the business that decides to sell them. 40% margin is a no-brainer so small businesses all over the country are ordering them in the thousands. The problem is these bikes end up on dozens of websites and people all over the country are buying a product that sells for $1500 - $2000 with little to no product support after receiving them. This is a virus that is killing the reputation of ebikes. We need more makers that will back the products they sell and will honor the literature used to sell and promote these products.
 
A Nireeka will be at my shop Mid December, to evaluate as I always do with every possible new product line. It's early stage company, but there are some interesting attributes, not just the looks, that have impressed me enough to spend my own money and see it in person. And yes normally they sell on line, but I've established an agreement with the CEO to see how being local could work out for the both of us.

For certain online only ebike firms, it could be extremely advantageous to have strategically located shops in major metro areas, that could compliment before the sale support such as custom ordering kiosks (the Nireeka has some interesting custom options that could be the source of questions) , become showrooms for test rides and in person size fit determination, and then most importantly become after the sale service centers covering a broader geography than a traditional bike shop. The industry at present is still early stage enough to where this makes sense until at least ebike adoption gets into the phase of mainstream. With a reported 85% of the general population in the US not being aware that Ebikes exist, we are far from the mainstream phase.

Personally I don't view on line buying as any threat to my business, and rather the industry is still young enough where it will likely find a merged co existence between on line and local. For Ebikes it's such a large financial purchase for most, also a large physical item, and I strongly believe consumers make the best buying decisions when they can see them physically in person, ride them, compare fit and feel, and make sure they are spending their money, not just on a good quality ebike but one that truly is a fit for their own body geometry. This one size fits all approach may be good for the vendor to keep his skus down, and thus manufacturing costs lower, but man it sure is not helping the consumer all that much. Another example of being local and importance of seeing in person, is how pictures or even videos don't really demonstrate physical size very well. This happens ALL the time when people come to my shop to check out Aventons Sinch. Almost everyone says it is much larger proportionally in person, than they ever imagined from on line imagery. The Sinch could easily be a choice for much taller people, so how many would buyers, just ignore it completely when searching on line ? And on the other end, you probably want to be at least 5' 3" to handle it well, though the seat does get very low and height above the ground makes it easy for shorter people to get on. I watched a 12 year old begging his dad to buy one for him, and he was barely 5'. He thought it was so very cool looking. It apparently reminded him of a Star Wars like vehicle. ( Maybe it was the gloss white and big black accent ? Or aerodynamic looking swooped frame ? Lol) But definitely Way too much ebike for someone his size to handle. It's also 62 lbs.

Anyway, on line purveyors aren't likely going away, and they likely aren't going to knock out LBS's either. Both will co-exist, do quite well if both have good business models, and both will likely evolve considerably from what we have been used to in on-line versus local shops in the past. There aren't a lot of product analogues out there like the size and cost of an ebike, where the product needs to be 'tested' and so this is really new territory for all sellers and even buyers.

Nobody can really forecast who will be winners or losers, and I don't think there are any historical benchmarks from other industries anyone can extrapolate from, especially not from pure analogue bikes. My opinion of course, but forecasting something like this at such an early stage is basically a roll of the dice. Perhaps Entertaining, but not likely any more meaningful that what you get out of a trip to Vegas.

Ps. When you see me knocking on line firms, I'm really just having a little fun (like pro athletes jawboning each other on the field) , and it's my own small way of MAYBE nudging at least one of them, to evolve from some really stupid stuff they are frequently doing that are not helping on line consumers one little bit. (Nor the industry as a whole) It's stuff like be more than just a proverbial price whore and add more value than just a low price (but cheap build quality) or free shipping as their primary reason for being. You know, stuff that can be changed easily, if they really wanted, but be of much more benefit to the consumer. I realize a number of you will say I'm being a hypocrite. Thank you kindly ... 🙃 ...but You have no idea of my intentions.
Mike, you have given me a great idea. Soon as my unbadged Frey AM1000 gets here I'm going right over ( 100 miles ) and show it to my local bike shop guy. I bought my Specialized XC from him and just had him put new Shimano Deore hydraulic brakes on it. He sells ebikes but I don't think he has any asian made bikes. If he doesn't already know about Frey and Alibaba I'll fill him in. It's a long shot but if he went for it I'd soon have an LBS to back me up with my new bike. :D
 
Not sure what you are trying to say, I'm not denying anything about how labor is managed in China. All I'm saying is if motors were manufactured in the US machines could be used to do it and thus the making of the motors would not be the economic bottleneck/show stopper in this scenario. The US need a larger market for bikes though probably before any big changes in the supply chain is warranted. However the biggest barrier to change is the desire to do so.
Thanks to Trump we are paying more for our cheap Chinese merch. Slave labor creates cheap goods and some People seem oblivious to that( ask Kathy Gifford)
 
I agree completely with your analogy of the PC market. Ebikes will rapidly become a commodity item composed of readily available parts.

Having worked at IBM for a number of years, I know first-hand how this difficult transition will play out... only a few of the larges players will survive.
Just noticed this comment. Yes, DTC ebikes are like the "white box" PC clones were. Put together 10 parts, configure the software, and you have a functional computer. Nobody even remembers the names of those companies now. :D
 
Just noticed this comment. Yes, DTC ebikes are like the "white box" PC clones were. Put together 10 parts, configure the software, and you have a functional computer. Nobody even remembers the names of those companies now. :D
I think your spot on with that . A large swath of the current fare of brands will be a "do you remember?" 5 years from now.
 
Just noticed this comment. Yes, DTC ebikes are like the "white box" PC clones were.
Put together 10 parts, configure the software, and you have a functional computer. Nobody even remembers the names of those companies now. :D
Here is a trip down memory lane... Acer, Compaq, Emachines, Gateway, Micron, Packard Bell, etc... ;)
 
There were the computer chain stores too. Kind of like Bikes Direct . Ads in all the bytehead and computer hobby magazines. The pest kicked what would have been the launch phase into mainstream "I need it now " hard and fast.
 
I remember working on the early mainframe-based PROFS email system at IBM... then PC based Lotus 1-2-3 anyone?
Bingo. The two killer apps that moved the whole industry from "nice to have" to "need it now" ...email and 123 ... like "Zoom and Amazon" today. Word processing and games were not a big enough market then.
 
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Atari 1040 ST with a whole 1 Meg of memory!!
7673CF83-5709-48BF-8BF2-2584720E4DCF.jpeg
 
But back to ebikes ... what happens with dealer stock this year is really important since the strong demand is going to be there. Next year, who knows.
 
I think my mom gave me a word processor in 1988 that her law office discarded. I just thought it was cool that you could write a letter and save it! I'm still about right there as far as computer IQ goes!
 

Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?​

I think you define the future market's winners and losers by buyers and buying habits. How many people will be buying and at what price range?

I guess you could categorize ebikes into price parameters. ( examples parameters, easily changed)
  1. Under $1,000
  2. $1,000 to $2,000
  3. $3000 to $5000
  4. $5000 and above
As long as there are plenty of buyers in category 1 and 2, there will be ton of companies as there are now.
 
Bingo. The two killer apps that moved the whole industry from "nice to have" to "need it now" ...email and 123 ... like "Zoom and Amazon" today. Word processing and games were not a big enough market then.
VisiCalc already had people pretty excited, by the time 123 came along the market was ready for a lot of reasons. 123 though was truly a killer application.
At least in my area, dBase and then Clipper pulled in a lot of business customers also onto the PC. A lot of companies also went for PC based accounting applications such as the awful PeachTree and many others.

WordStar was an early word processor that was popular but easier ones cam around that were much less expensive. PageMaker and a then a host of DeskTop Publishing apps (e.g. Ventura and ....) was the second huge wave of PC adoption in the business world. Games always kept things interesting as well at that point.

The good old days!
 
I see an (admittedly imperfect) analogy to the craft beer industry. First come the pioneers: ie . Sierra Nevada, Giant. Then comes the explosion, followed by the realisation that many are competing for a diminishing slice of the pie, corporate buyouts, natural attrition, and eventually maturity (read that as dominance by a few). Until the next upstart disruptor arrives on the scene..
 
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