Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?

Here's the thing.



I know a lady who purchased Trek right away.
She wasn't even looking for an ebike, but went to the Trek Store, and happen to test ride Trek Verve step thru, and bought it the very next day.
Timpo, this scenario happens at my shop every single day, on nearly every appointment, where the person buys an ebike on the spot, or makes a deposit, and none of my brands are Trek. They are Surface 604, Aventon, Batch, Magnum, IGO, Bagi, Qualisports, NCM, Biria, and more recently added Linus, Yuba (for Cargo ebikes), and Nireeka. I could name 10 other shops just off the top of my head, who also do not have Trek, or Giant, or any of the so called 'big brand bike names' who are just as successful if not more successful than my shop is. I do over 500 ebikes a year now. There are a number of them that are over 1000 sold annually, and those are not Pedego stores either, which has had massive marketing efforts long before many of these other brands you mention came into existence. So what exactly is your point again ? You know one lady who did that... I know more than a 1000 who bought from me that exact same way. No hesitation at all, about the brand, or the purchase decision, with no multiple return visits, other than to pick up their ebike if it wasn't already on the floor, and ready to go. Heck, Rad is only a known 'brand' in the past few years, due to them spending in excess of $100,000 per month (number supplied to me 3 years ago from a confidential source) on Google Adwords alone, and that advertising budget is likely even higher now that they are north of $250 million annually in sales. Those so called BIG name brands aren't doing as well as you speculate, or as many often speculate. There is a Trek store, who is south of my shop by only a few miles, right in the heart of a major suburban community, with very significant regular bike sales and many years here, with a very modern and up to date store, and they started selling Trek ebikes and Electra ebikes a little over 3 years ago, and in 2018 they sold 25 ebikes. In an entire year. I've had week sales numbers far higher than that number. (My first full year selling ebikes, from my garage, and very part time, I sold 52 ebikes). And this is a TREK store selling 25 , 2.5 years after I started doing it from my household garage. They are in a significant market, with pretty darn high household income. The local Giant shop hasn't done much better. And its easy to tell, when either of them only have had around a dozen on their floor at any given time (pre-Covid), in floor space mostly dominated by regular bikes. When/IF either of them start having 75 to 100 ebikes on their floor, then I MIGHT start worrying about them as serious competition.
 
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If they see a market, a way to make it worth their trouble, you had better believe we will see them reappear - with this experience under their belt this time....
GM ? How many times did they offer an EV to the market, then take it off, and then put it back on, etc. just since the early 90's ? They are more fickle than a teenage female dating high school boys.
 
Just because a company stops production of something doesn’t mean it was a waste or that they won’t come back to that market later. Like how GM stopped making the Camaro & Humvee for a while, Ford the Bronco, etc.
Who knows what forces guided their decision, but their timing couldn't be worse. My guess is it was a combo of distribution and marketing. They killed it in the spring of 2020, which was probably the BEST time to get exposure.

The Verity is a fun bike too. The 75Nm torque motor with the added boost throttle had a lot going for it. Other than the noisier motor it was pretty feature-complete, including blind spot detection via integrated version of the Garmin Varia, which worked well in my test ride.

The motor could have been a contender... I don't know what's happening with it. It's odd that they found a half-life as a subscription bike here in Toronto. I have no idea of Zygg just bought inventory, or if they have some other agreement with GM.
 
Wondering how the market will shake out in the medium term future.
I notice that carmakers are relatively few. A bunch of big names that everyone knows. Start up costs are too high and complicated

but what about ebike makers? There are so many companies out there who are basically ordering 100 units from overseas and having the factory slap a logo on it with zero design or engineering modifications. Can it possibly be a wild wild west forever?

I wonder if it could shape up to be like the computer market. Always a couple of big brands but still tons of room for basically no name brands because it is so trivial to get the hardware to build a computer these days.

if so then maintenance is a huge market opportunity if local bike shops aren’t able or willing to touch ebikes. It’s inconceivable that very many customers will want to maintain a bike themselves. I suspect that much like third party extended warranties for gadgets that eBay offers, it may be normal for people to buy a third party, real life, come to your house or take it to a nearby physical location repair warranty for these internet ordered e-bikes.

Talk like that makes me consider leaving the automotive field to open my own bike repair shop lol. Surely bikes should be easier to fix than BMWs
 
Hard to tell what small bike companies will still be in the market in 5+ years... I suspect there will be a major market shakeout post-Covid-19. ;)

I would bet on the Tier 1 brands... Trek, Specialized, Giant, and Cannondale along with the OEM drive systems from Bosch, Brose, Shimano, and Yamaha.




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Why did you leave out SRAM , their a major OEM drive system manufacturer.
 
Yeah, I was checking those out the other day. Tell us about the Nireekas Mike

Months of ebike research. Never heard of Nireeka. This past Sunday I see an electrek article, an instagram ad, and now you've mentioned them too. I second Taylor57. Who knows more about these bikes
 
Months of ebike research. Never heard of Nireeka. This past Sunday I see an electrek article, an instagram ad, and now you've mentioned them too. I second Taylor57. Who knows more about these bikes
I saw them a few months ago when I was looking for lighter ebikes... they are above my price range and still not light enough so I stopped looking at them.

But I do like the style... very futuristic... did not know they sold them at LBS.
 
SRAM does not make eBike motors... just traditional drive systems. ;)
Then their missing the boat, a profit and revenue filled one too.

It would be interesting to see what an American company can manufacture with ebike motors. As far as I know their aren’t any.
 
There really is no reason to manufacture here. Design? Sure! But manufacturing as some hinted at is laborious in the winding of motors. Not sure if all motors on e-bikes are hand wound. I think Paul who is working on Zen with Ravi made one.
 
There really is no reason to manufacture here. Design? Sure! But manufacturing as some hinted at is laborious in the winding of motors. Not sure if all motors on e-bikes are hand wound. I think Paul who is working on Zen with Ravi made one.

Paul was very brave and took on a huge challenge. He designed the motor from ground up and many of the parts were made locally in Oregon. It was elegant, powerful and very efficient.
But, it would be very challenging to scale such a design and it would be impossible to compete with Asian manufacturing. This is one reason, almost all electronics (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bose etc.) are designed in North America but manufactured in Asia.

Coming back to the topic of this thread:

To stay relevant in the E-bike market, any company has to be very agile and forward thinking. At some point, they also have to answer the question ..." Do we play this game where it is all about cost and no room for breakthrough innovation ?"

When the PC market became highly commoditized, IBM - once a famed manufacturer of PCs sold the business to Lenovo and moved towards higher level technologies like the cloud, AI, machine learning etc.
Competing in a PC market is a different beast compared to competing in the cloud and machine learning space. I think it was very smart of IBM to do that and take that jump.

In my humble opinion, in the E-bike space, if anyone can make the "Toyota Camry" of E-bikes i.e., very reliable, affordable to the masses and decent features .... will succeed without an iota of doubt.
What are those "decent features" and what would be the price point of a "Camry-level E-bike" ... I think the sweet spot is $2000-$2500 with excellent warranty/customer service.

I would be curious to hear what the community thinks about such a bike.
 
Paul was very brave and took on a huge challenge. He designed the motor from ground up and many of the parts were made locally in Oregon. It was elegant, powerful and very efficient.
But, it would be very challenging to scale such a design and it would be impossible to compete with Asian manufacturing. This is one reason, almost all electronics (Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bose etc.) are designed in North America but manufactured in Asia.

Coming back to the topic of this thread:

To stay relevant in the E-bike market, any company has to be very agile and forward thinking. At some point, they also have to answer the question ..." Do we play this game where it is all about cost and no room for breakthrough innovation ?"

When the PC market became highly commoditized, IBM - once a famed manufacturer of PCs sold the business to Lenovo and moved towards higher level technologies like the cloud, AI, machine learning etc.
Competing in a PC market is a different beast compared to competing in the cloud and machine learning space. I think it was very smart of IBM to do that and take that jump.

In my humble opinion, in the E-bike space, if anyone can make the "Toyota Camry" of E-bikes i.e., very reliable, affordable to the masses and decent features .... will succeed without an iota of doubt.
What are those "decent features" and what would be the price point of a "Camry-level E-bike" ... I think the sweet spot is $2000-$2500 with excellent warranty/customer service.

I would be curious to hear what the community thinks about such a bike.

What do I know? But it is apparent that even Toyota is 'out of the league' of a huge market segment. Taking Toyota or Ford or, ... ( is there some European car maker that makes a difference?) Anyway, the great manufacturers all make a line of vehicles. From top to bottom. There's a lot of profit at the bottom. They gotta have a car. For now. Then there is the 'specialty market'. It's a lot of folks. With money. Especially for something like an ebike. If I was a start up ebike entrepreneur I would find the niche I could compete in and go from there. Always striving for growth. Grow or die as they say. The whole thing has a lot to do with timing ... and luck.
 
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