30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[FlatSix911]

I want the inverter generator to charge my bike. Maybe on the go for camping, so under 20 lbs. Can't really go wrong unless everything goes wrong.
I would not discount having intermittent electrical supply problems depending on how bad the Wuhan goes. Propane fueled would be good for camping and long trips.

Here is an example of my EV charging my laptop and other household loads... could easily charge my EBike batteries.

 

[Alex M]

That also assumes that people can actually cook.

This is something that I've never been able to understand, most people in Canada and US don't take any effort to learn how to cook. It takes 10-15 minutes of Googling or Youtube-ing to learn how to make simple meals like rice, chicken, vegetable soup etc. Very little preparation. All this is still available. I usually bake whole chicken (few minutes to cut/peel the skin, set oven timer to 15 min @450F + 24min per pound @375F), then freeze as it takes more than 10 days to consume when alternating with baked salmon. Chicken changes the texture after defrosting (splitting into fibers, for lack of better word), this doesn't affect taste or nutritional value. Baked salmon doesn't change after defrosting. I don't use pasta, very little nutritional value.

And then, there are Chinese/Thai/Viet deliveries, but I would have to get really sick or unable to get my usual items from the store, before going this route. Poor quality ingredients and too much fat - a common situation for low-tier restaurants regardless of ethnicity. You can do better than that, people.

For occasional blackouts there is a camping stove, one green Coleman cylinder will last several days. Only had a chance to use it once in 5 years, power was restored before I finished my dinner. Losing power to the fridge would be a disaster, but so far blackouts have been short-lasting, not enough time to raise the temperature. And flashlight and candles for light - can't have a generator in high-rise building.

Meanwhile, past week here in Canada has been terrifying: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a1.

Scroll down to Curve - https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...virus-infection/health-professionals.html#epi - the latest week is not on the graph yet, but you can see the number in the table. It dropped from 60 to 30 (somehow), and then went to 250.

This could take long. 1918 Spanish Flu epidemic in the US came in 3 waves and lasted 14 months total.

 

[Handlebars]

I do not expect the power to go off, nor do I expect the water supply to either.

For people who live in city apartment buildings there are more possibilities for power or water outages; there's the authorities and then there's the building management and then there's the building crew and various companies' and their tradespersons.

 

[PDXzap]

Here is an example of my EV charging my laptop and other household loads...

I'm still looking at Nissan Leafs and Kia Niros. Till then my setup is a lower order of tech but still charges stuff... and in a pinch I can jump start the truck or fill a tire

 

[cuwatra]

This...

 

[Handlebars]

This is something that I've never been able to understand, most people in Canada and US don't take any effort to learn how to cook. It takes 10-15 minutes of Googling or Youtube-ing to learn how to make simple meals like rice, chicken, vegetable soup etc. Very little preparation. All this is still available. I usually bake whole chicken (few minutes to cut/peel the skin, set oven timer to 15 min @450F + 24min per pound @375F), then freeze as it takes more than 10 days to consume when alternating with baked salmon. Chicken changes the texture after defrosting (splitting into fibers, for lack of better word), this doesn't affect taste or nutritional value. Baked salmon doesn't change after defrosting. I don't use pasta, very little nutritional value.

True that we need protein, but in the short term we need one thing: energy from fats, starches, and sugars. Top of list, though , is water.
Very easy to buy a supply of sugar at the least. One or 2 eggs a day equivalent for protein.

For occasional blackouts there is a camping stove, one green Coleman cylinder will last several days.

Got one last month and extra cylinders. Alcohol stove cans and little wood stoves if things go really bad.

And flashlight and candles for light - can't have a generator in high-rise building.

I hear that stearin candles are best.
If things get worse you can take a small generator outside to charge batteries or at least use a power assist venting to keep it safe indoors.

Meanwhile, past week here in Canada has been terrifying

Aint it? Almost nothing they have said or done has been true or sensible.

The latest week is not on the graph yet, but you can see the number in the table. It dropped from 60 to 30 (somehow), and then went to 250.

The increase in one day was incredible and they have been refusing to test most sick people.
Our building office management is down to the boss...others are off sick.

 

[steve mercier]

This article may be of use

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virus-simulator520pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

 

[Alex M]

Another source of animal protein - hard cheese. 1/4" thick slice contains same amount of protein as 1 egg.
Or, easier yet - a handful of walnuts or almonds. Can store almost indefinitely without refrigeration. Plant protein isn't the same as animal protein, though.

 

[Alex M]

This article may be of use

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/?itid=hp_hp-top-table-main_virus-simulator520pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory-ans

I think in reality in China they had a mix: quarantine for some, and social distancing for others. Streets were empty, according to eyewitnesses.

It's interesting that quarantine is inefficient - according to simulation model. Note that quarantine in this model was not complete - and realistically couldn't be, with that many people. The worst is a mass quarantine in a small space without proper isolation between people, like on cruise ships - eventually everybody got sick quickly. So with subsequent ships they began taking passengers ashore and quarantine in shore facilities with more space, like military bases.

 

[Handlebars]

That was a cogent appraisal, Alex. One thing quarantined cruise ships provided is an estimate on how westerners fare under modern medicine-available condition. However, count that out once the contagion "hits" for real and there are no beds and China isn't sending meds.

On food stocks: Cans of kippered herring. Some people love it, I haven't eaten any since childhood when I tried my dad's snack food. Herring is a premier source of food for other fish and top grade pet fish food has it, along with Antarctic krill. They are great for nutrients. Now I have 20 cans of kippers in stock. Still haven't tried them again, though. I might do that tonight with a beer . If they taste better to me now I'll buy more.

 

[FlatSix911]

Y2K was a panic without sufficient underlying cause. Perusing for "only used once" toiletpaper in a few months could result in some real gems!

Cross-post from another thread... thanks to Ravi!

How to instantly double the value of your E-bike??
{you're welcome}
View attachment 47526

 

[Alex M]

One thing quarantined cruise ships provided is an estimate on how westerners fare under modern medicine-available condition. However, count that out once the contagion "hits" for real and there are no beds and China isn't sending meds.

When there is no drug, all that medicine can do is containment but cruise ship is not the right place for this. Canada might indeed run out of beds at some point, there are fewer beds per capita than in the US. And so might Mexico.

I understand that vaccine is being developed by German company and it is at least a year away.

Many workers are probably taking Employment Insurance, getting 55% pay for 4 months and hoping that things will improve meanwhile. All those office maintenance people didn't necessarily get sick, they just took EI and I can't blame them. You need a doctor's note to get 4 months, but anybody can take 1 month without a note. If it won't subside in 4 months, they at least contribute to "flattening the curve".

 

[Handlebars]

When there is no drug, all that medicine can do is containment but cruise ship is not the right place for this. Canada might indeed run out of beds at some point, there are fewer beds per capita than in the US. And so might Mexico.

What I meant is not that there is a drug cure, but treatment under "Modern Medicine". They had what reasonable medical treatments are available and there are some, whether it be intubation or drugs.

I understand that vaccine is being developed by German company and it is at least a year away.

Many workers are probably taking Employment Insurance, getting 55% pay for 4 months and hoping that things will improve meanwhile. All those office maintenance people didn't necessarily get sick, they just took EI and I can't blame them. You need a doctor's note to get 4 months, but anybody can take 1 month without a note. If it won't subside in 4 months, they at least contribute to "flattening the curve".

Flattening the curve is a guaranteed loser strategy. They should have and still should aim for what happened with SARS 1. Herd immunity did not happen. Flattened curve was not necessary. Those are all BS to distract from the immense failure that is still occurring. They are going for the Italian example of how to be losers while implementing extraordinary government interference in all walks of life, instead of using great power and wealth to do the simple necessary thing to stop it; force mask production and enforce mask wearing in public in every country for a few months. Countries that refuse should be treated as pariah nations and all aid removed immediately and all trade and travel banned.

 

[FlatSix911]

(Link Removed - No Longer Exists)

E-bike and e-scooter sharing programs are now seeing a boost in ridership.

The New York Times reported that bicycle trips in New York City have jumped by 50% in some places compared to the same period last year, and that the Citi Bike bicycle-sharing program, which includes thousands of electric bicycles, has seen a 67% surge in ridership.

Chicago is apparently seeing even more dramatic increases with a nearly 100% jump in cycling compared to the same time last year.

 

[Handlebars]

There were bike stands popping up all over the place in Toronto last year. Once it becomes convenient to pick one up and drop it off, ridership increases, naturally, and I saw what looked like a massive increase here..in the warmer weather. Not sure we have ebikes.
I think we might have e-Coronavirus though - it's getting around pretty fast.
As I pulled up at the grocery store bike stand a couple of hours ago, three twenties-age people were getting on their bikes. The guy was taking the temperature of one girl with the back of his hand on her forehead and she was making a face of feeling ill. Then he went and checked the other girl with no response and then they took off, with him immediately coughing a couple of times. The bikestand was an unhealthy place to be this time!
Got home and my daughter was talking to a university colleague in Germany and all six flatmates have it and the father of one of them has it.

 

[Alex M]

We are at the point now when any place with another person(s) within 6-10ft is unhealthy, - not just bike stands at grocery stores. This includes family members.

Please explain me this. Canada, March 17: 569 cases: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection.html#a5
To my best memory, on March 15 it was ~250 at 9.am. I know because I looked at this table on March 15 and posted here.

Weekly graph on the same website shows only 18 cases by March 15: https://www.canada.ca/en/public-hea...virus-infection/health-professionals.html#epi. I guess the graph shows only new cases per week - I've added all the weeks and came up with 261, close to total 250 reported Sunday morning March 15.

Even if it was "only" 18 new cases on the week ending March 14 - it's not trailing off yet. Today March 17, this week has already added 270 new cases in 3 days. Not good at all.

Every week there is one constant - 75% of new cases are travelers and 10% - persons in contact with travelers. I wonder who are those 75% - business types, preferring to be rich and dead rather than broke and alive? ...

On a positive note, - daily table (link #1) reports total cases since early January. Half of those 569 people probably have recovered by now. A cold comfort for those 2-3% who died, that's for sure. Nasty detail is that it can be VERY sudden and severe, like a heart attack - now you're fine and few hours later you're delirious, feverish and shortness of breath.

 

[Handlebars]

Alex, I believe that what you and I ... we.. are noticing here - and others notice elsewhere - is what is termed as "consilience failure", which can be a sign of what is termed as "error cascades"

Consilience: agreement between the approaches to a topic of different academic subjects , especially science and the humanities.

Error cascade: a series of escalating errors in diagnosis or treatment, each one amplifying the effect of the previous one.

The early lies and half-truths that officials and authorities told on several issues cannot be sustained. These lies uncorrected will prove harmful to the public in more than one way, resulting in many more deaths and incalculable cost in financial terms and in terms of societal cohesion - already there is early splitting of community and families into fractious factions.

It's necessary to recognize that the UN and the WHO are political entities and that "Doctor" Todros is a political appointee with seriously dubious political and personal aims. Did anyone really think that Robert Mugabe
would be a fine representative of goodwill toward all?

 

[steve mercier]

Hopefully more sarcasm...

sadly I fear not

 

[Alex M]

Gotta love Chinese dictatorship regime. Didn't bother themselves with consilience thing, just locked half the country down. Travel has been controlled even before the virus, - yes, domestic travel including - so enforcing the lock-down didn't present political challenge.

 

[Handlebars]

Yes, Alex. And Trudeau just assumed all power including taking your food, property, money, liberty at his brilliant command...because he messed up full time for months.