World War III

[Cowlitz]

This tidbit is basically useless, as I work and daydream while NPR is on so miss important things like location. I did catch a report that reported that Ukrainians said Russian troops had resorted to eating dogs somewhere. Apparently the supply chain is not working if this is true. I was assuming that the time out was to correct this problem. This could be true, or not and might be old news. It might just be another rumor.

My dog has very little meat on her and would be tough and stringy, I think. I won't consult her about this.

Possible stroganoff ingrediant?

 

[mclewis1]

No question the supply lines had become a huge issue for the Russians, particularly those north of Kyiv. The Ukrainians had become very good at picking off the supply trucks (there are even pics of some trucks being locally "up armored" to help ward off small arms fire).

Seriously, it's interesting to hear about some of the conditions some of the Russian conscripts were in (cold, hungry, pushed and lied to by the officers, being hunted by very determined Ukrainians, etc.). Now I'm not in anyway looking for sympathy for those troops (or even remotely comparing it to the suffering of the Ukrainian population), just pointing out a little of what the Russian government dropped some of their population into.

Nice pic of the pooch. clearly there's a nasty squirrel up that tree that needs watching. I had a friend with a Brittany spaniel that could sit for hours like that under a tree with a squirrel. I used to own greyhounds ... the Russians would have had an awful time with those. I think Stroganoff could make a good name for a dog ... "come here Stro ... good boy"

 

[Cowlitz]

A link. Most of the reports are coming from UK sources. Apparently the Russians don't like the expired rations they are supplied with.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...s-Ukraine-intercepted-phone-call-reveals.html

I call the tree in the picture, The Dog Entertainment System as it often has SQUIRRELS in it.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I think the big question right now is, given what we know about the Russian logistics problems, have they fixed enough of those problems to make a go of it in this offensive they have planned in southeastern Ukraine?

For myself, I am very doubtful. But anything is possible.

 

[mclewis1]

I think the big question right now is, given what we know about the Russian logistics problems, have they fixed enough of those problems to make a go of it in this offensive they have planned in southeastern Ukraine?

For myself, I am very doubtful. But anything is possible.

My guess is yes they have, well mostly. In the east the supply lines in the Donbas area come under the protection of air cover from local and Russian based systems. So it shouldn't be hard to reliably bring supplies by rail into the border region and break them down onto trucks for transport to the front lines. I'm not saying they're completely out of the water from roaming Ukrainians but it appears to be very different scenario than what happened north of Kyiv.

It also looks like they are now solidifying their control of the area around Mariupol which could mean bad news for the folks further east (Odessa). I'm not sure the Ukrainians have the capability or desire for a strong fast counterattack southward into the Mariupol area to split the Russian forces and prevent an assault on the Odessa area. I think they're more in the mind of defending a line (Mykolaiv area) before Odessa and pushing the Russians back eastward (Kherson).

 

[ChezCheese:)]

At the very least, they have proven themselves to be quite destructive marauders.

 

[Mulezen]

I think most likely the Russians have cosmetically fixed their supply lines. Granted they have much shorter lines but…their equipment is moldy and in disrepair (Example: their antiquated flagship) and their adversary motivated and innovative. Note the recent attacks on Russian soil like the bridge and rocket launchers.

 

[Mulezen]

Hopefully not pay-walled

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/04/14/west-cant-let-russia-win-in-ukraine/

Some of Fareed Zaharia’s take
Ukraine’s brave and brilliant response to Russia’s attack is rightly being celebrated across the world. But it might be obscuring a growing danger. While the assault on Kyiv and the surrounding region has failed, Moscow’s strategy in the south and east of Ukraine could well succeed. If it does, Russia will have turned Ukraine into an economically crippled rump state, landlocked and threatened on three sides by Russian military power, always vulnerable to another incursion from Moscow. It will take much more military assistance from the West to ensure that this catastrophic outcome does not come to pass.
Sign up for a weekly roundup of thought-provoking ideas and debates
As Can Kasapoglu, a military scholar and strategist, presciently pointed out in the first few weeks of the war in an essay for the Hudson Institute, there are two distinct wars taking place in Ukraine, one in the north and one in the south, and the latter has been “radically more successful” for Moscow. Russia has been able to move forces and supplies out of its bases in Crimea and capture the cities of Melitopol and Kherson. Mariupol is now encircled and invaded by Russian troops, and Ukrainian forces trapped there cannot be resupplied. Ukraine’s access to the Sea of Azov has been blocked, and, Kasapoglu points out, Russian forces have a contiguous land corridor from Crimea deep into Donbas. They are also trying to move west, from Kherson to Odessa.

Follow Fareed Zakaria's opinionsFollow
Odessa is the prize. As the main port from which Ukraine trades with the world, it is the most important city for Ukraine economically. It is also a city replete with symbolic significance. It was here in 1905 that a mutiny on the battleship Potemkin (made famous by Sergei Eisenstein’s movie) marked the beginning of the troubles of czarist Russia. Were Odessa to fall, Ukraine would be practically landlocked, and the Black Sea would essentially become a Russian lake — which would almost certainly tempt Moscow to extend its military power into Moldova, which has its own breakaway region filled with many Russian speakers (Transnistria). Russian President Vladimir Putin could present this outcome as a grand victory, liberating Russian speakers, gaining crucial cities and ports, and turning Ukraine into a nonviable vassal state.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I say 4 July, Ukraine will be liberated from Zelensky's government and ousted. That's 100 days since Soviets conducted the military operations. I'm willing to bet $5 on it.

That's an interesting statement. Please share your reasoning on why you think this is likely to be true. I'd also point out there are 130 days between February 24th and July 4th so your ability to do basic analysis (and math) is already a bit questionable.

For myself, I find it highly unlikely that those things will happen. Here's why I think that:

1. At this point, there are probably more Ukrainians under arms and in the fight than there are Russians. Yes, Russia has a larger military, but a lot of that military isn't relevant to the current conflict and can't be called into the fight.
2. That adverse correlation of forces is unlikely to improve in the short term. The next draft of conscripts was called up a few weeks ago, but they are unlikely to be adequately trained to do anything useful in less than three months. Similarly, some reserves have been called up, but it will take time to muster them and bring their training up to anything remotely combat effective.
3. From an economic standpoint, Russia has approximately the GDP of the state of New York. The United States plus all NATO countries have a GDP of approximately 30 New Yorks. This means that the West can likely support Ukraine to a pretty generous level for quite a period of time, likely far longer than Russia can sustain their forces on a war footing in Ukraine.
4. We have all seen that Russia has terrible logistics problems. It is unlikely that they can quickly fix those problems and carry out offensive operations at the same time, especially in the time scales you propose. If anything, in the short term it is reasonable to expect that those problems will become far worse.
5. Similarly, the Russian army suffers from serious operational, command-and-control, and coordination problems. Those problems are going to take quite a bit of time to fix and I am skeptical that substantial progress could be made on those problems in less than three months.

Finally, there are a lot of youtube and tiktok videos out there showing Russian soldiers in action. What is interesting to me about those videos is what you do not see:

1. Any kind of optics or night vision gear. In fact all of the videos I've seen have shown Russian soldiers using iron sights.
2. Decent radios. Reports that the Russians are resorting to Ukrainian sim cards to communicate also is another indicator.
3. GPS systems. Which is a reason other than the mud (and clever Ukrainian flooding of fields) that the Russians appear road-bound.

None of those things are as glamorous as fighter jets or tanks or rocket launchers, and none of them can be as easily counted in satellite images. But I suspect their weaknesses in those areas are all reasons this is such an ugly fight for the Russians.

 

[Cowlitz]

The Russians do have night vision stuff. I read where the Ukrainians are taking it from them. Kind of like tractors and tanks.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

The Russians do have night vision stuff. I read where the Ukrainians are taking it from them. Kind of like tractors and tanks.

Probably the "2nd World's Army" sold their night vision for vodka, as everything else

 

[Stefan Mikes]

 

[ChezCheese:)]

Perhaps the Kremlin should not be calling it a "special military operation", but rather call it a "special Russian shopping operation". No change in military strategy since the Mongol hordes overran the Steppes.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

The Russians do have night vision stuff. I read where the Ukrainians are taking it from them. Kind of like tractors and tanks.

Yes, they do have that stuff. And from the grey market surplus items you can buy on the internet their stuff is pretty good. They just can't have enough of it to use it operationally.

One reason I think that is the air assaults (mostly on airfields around Kiev) early in the war were all done during the day. And the youtube videos posted of those assaults showed paratroopers with small arms and even heavy weapons like machine guns with just iron sights. In any western military all of those weapons would have had optics and thermal sights. Those were elite forces who were their best-trained and equipped soldiers.

The other reason is that they seem to be doing road movements only during the day. Which makes no sense in an environment where they are obviously concerned about drones, which from radio intercepts they obviously were. And also makes no sense unless they don't have the capability to do such movements.

So whether they have them (night vision gear) or not they aren't making effective use of it.

 

[Cowlitz]

Probably the "2nd World's Army" sold their night vision for vodka, as everything else

Saw a report that they are now bombing Russian towns to fire up hatred of Ukraine. Since the report is from a source I've never heard of, it may not be true, but sounds Putinish.

Sounds like a lot of interception of Russian phone calls is being done and Ukrainian grandmas with smartphones are listed as a major weapon of Ukraine. They didn't mention jars of canned tomatoes.

 

[Mulezen]

Read This: "Russian Soldier Says Putin’s Troops Bombed Their Own People"
https://www.thedailybeast.com/russi...to-blame-ukraine-ukrainian-intel-says?via=ios

 

[ChezCheese:)]

Yes, in many reports from the liberated suburbs and towns, the babushka brigade is mentioned a lot. An invader can never win for long when the local people are united against the invader. Home team advantage. (See Afghanistan, Vietnam...)

 

[mclewis1]

A few lighter comments on the "military situation".

With the news that Finland is more interested in becoming a NATO member the Russians have sent warnings to Finland and started to position troops closer to the border. The Finish response has been to move large numbers of farm tractors to the border area.

Russia has been warning lots of different countries about providing military aide to Ukraine. They sent a diplomatic note to Czechia saying they cannot deliver Soviet-era weapons to Ukraine without Russian permission. A comment from a senior Czech diplomat: “there is no problem, we are technically just returning these weapons to the former Soviet Union.”

What should be a popular gift to model builders this Christmas.

 

[Cowlitz]

I feel safe here. We are quite prepared. Just one of many.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

The answer of Finland to Russia: