The Green Room

[Handlebars]

Ah, Okay one day of people going around it t-shirts and shorts with floppy hats and flipflops in December is no big deal. All by itself it is almost funny on a day when they wanted to go skating on a pond. It is a point, and a point is not a trend. But has anything else been weird in Penticton in the last 6-months? Like evil witchcraft science fiction biblical level weird. Because those other points together amount to data.

So for what possible reason could they have chosen to use 1986 to 2005 to model the future on? THIRTY years is a climatic period.

 

[PedalUma]

If one included the 1985 data plus the 2005 whilst including the time between would that be less conspiratorial?

 

[tomjasz]

The best solution.

If one included the 1985 data plus the 2005 whilst including the time between would that be less conspiratorial?

 

[Mulezen]

It's December and it hasn't snowed in Denver yet. That's never been recorded | CNN

It's been 224 consecutive days since it snowed a measurable amount in Denver, and since snowfall records began in 1882, Denver has never entered December without measurable snow.

www.cnn.com

 

[BlackHand]

It's December and it hasn't snowed in Denver yet. That's never been recorded | CNN

It's been 224 consecutive days since it snowed a measurable amount in Denver, and since snowfall records began in 1882, Denver has never entered December without measurable snow.

www.cnn.com

This year, Seattle had the driest March1-September1 recorded since at least 1945(they relocated the official station in 1945) followed by the wettest September1-November30 in the same period.

 

[Handlebars]

If one included the 1985 data plus the 2005 whilst including the time between would that be less conspiratorial?

It wouldn't be less wrong or less supsect. Using 20 when the accepted climatic period length is 30 yrs. Cherry picking some of those years of the period is an obvious other suspect action because it isn't anywhere near the present date, like maybe using a period ending with 2019 data, that would be normal, that would be not suspect. They have 2 suspect actions - apparent avoidance of full data period and avoidance of more recent data.

 

[Handlebars]

This year, Seattle had the driest March1-September1 recorded since at least 1945(they relocated the official station in 1945) followed by the wettest September1-November30 in the same period.

You sure it wasn't opened in 1948? It says records start then. Nope, further on it says 1944 and some mentions of 1950...
Anyway, thething to understand about coastal temps is that ocean currents can take a very very long time to respond to changes.

 

[PedalUma]

Okay, then how about 1985 data plus 2015 data plus the data from the years between? Would that be less conspiratorial and more accurate?

 

[Handlebars]

Okay, then how about 1985 data plus 2015 data plus the data from the years between? Would that be less conspiratorial and more accurate?

With no plausible excuse for cherry picking, it looks exactly like fraud would look. Maybe I overlooked something. I'll look at it again.

 

[BlackHand]

With no plausible excuse for cherry picking, it looks exactly like fraud would look. Maybe I overlooked something. I'll look at it again.

Valid question, but it seems sensible to me that mean temperature from 10 years before and 10 years after the given year is likely to be more accurate than a 30 year average of past temps that is traditionally updated every 10 years.

 

[BlackHand]

You sure it wasn't opened in 1948? It says records start then. Nope, further on it says 1944 and some mentions of 1950...

Seriously dude? The only reason I added the simplified note about 1945 was because I was trying to forestall you randomly calling me out for cherry picking.

No one else cares but if you must know: The first weather observations at SeaTac were Nov 21, 1944. The first full year of data is 1945. The SeaTac location was designated as the official Seattle station in November 1948. It's accepted convention here to cite weather records back to 1945 because it makes sense to maximize the full year data available from the current official location.

 

[Taylor57]

I'm watching Dr.Phil report. Organize retail criminal.

I caught the first few minutes. They had an "expert" under 900 dollar crime guy actually admitting he was proud of what he does yet not proud. Phil said, "that sounds like a contradiction"

I am so glad both of my parents are deceased and don't have to see this garbage. Teotwawki

 

[john peck]

Interesting to read these takes on gardens and cats.

Like many around here, we started a couple raised beds during the pandemic. I'm fairly sure the resource investment - lumber, soil, fertilizer, water- has far outweighed the return so far. The bunnies sure like it though.

There's been a dramatic rise in the rabbit (eastern cottontail, non-native) population the past 2 years followed by a sharp increase in coyote (also non-native) sightings around here.

The coyotes do a much better job of convincing folks to keep their cats indoors than the city council so there's that, I guess.

Send any coyotes you can spare; the feral cats are picking off all the little bunnies here & I ain et
rabbit in ages.

 

[Taylor57]

Send any coyotes you can spare; the feral cats are picking of all the little bunnies here & I ain et
rabbit in ages.

John Peck, if you dont mind me asking, where do you live?

 

[tomjasz]

MRAP

LEO plays army. A sad state of affairs. I missed something. Relevance?

 

[6zfshdb]

Sold my gas powered SUV and am now a 100% electric car and bikes. Now I'm sure electric prices are going to spike through the roof!

Our local provider here in northeast PA., PPL Electric Utilities, just announced a 26% rate increase!

 

[Handlebars]

Valid question, but it seems sensible to me that mean temperature from 10 years before and 10 years after the given year is likely to be more accurate than a 30 year average of past temps that is traditionally updated every 10 years.

what is the "given year" in this example?

 

[Handlebars]

Our local provider here in northeast PA., PPL Electric Utilities, just announced a 26% rate increase!

...that's for "starters". Once there are no gasoline cars, add electronic fences.

 

[Handlebars]

Valid question, but it seems sensible to me that mean temperature from 10 years before and 10 years after the given year is likely to be more accurate than a 30 year average of past temps that is traditionally updated every 10 years.

A more accurate description of what? Why wouldn't a ten year period make it even more accurate? Why wouldn't 5 years make it so much more more accurate?

 

[Handlebars]

Also, a general rule in statistics says that you need at least 30 numbers to get a reliable estimate of their mean or average.

NOAA

​

​