Novel Coronavirus discussions

[Deleted member 4210]

Well, in Washington State officials are recommending people stay at home and avoid large crowds. They are also emphasizing at this point that that is a recommendation but they might make it an order if the situation worsens.

Washington State risks seeing explosion in coronavirus cases without dramatic action, new analysis says

A computational biologist estimates there are likely already at least 500 to 600 coronavirus cases in the greater Seattle area.

www.statnews.com

That 'explosion' in growth of cases is concerning. As they experienced in China it does not just stay in one geographic area.

 

[Handlebars]

Canadian Forces now taking measures to prepare for what the government has mishandled by doing nothing...it's no longer in containment phase

 

[Handlebars]

My own guess is that this is going to be "worse" than seasonal flu. For a couple of reasons:

(1) Since there is no equivalent of a flu shot and containment efforts in the States are failing or have failed, we are likely to get a very large number of very critical cases very quickly. And a lot of health care workers will be infected as well and won't be able to work. Any health care system has a limited capacity to care for very sick patients (one example, there are about 75000 ventilators in the United States, and you can't just order up a bunch more on Amazon) and if we get a huge number of very sick people at the same time things will be a mess.

Indeed. The picture is even more grim when you consider how many of those 75000 respirators are already in full time use.

Frank Vaughan is giving numbers for available respirators in Canada.
Suddenly the free healthcare essentially disappears because there just isn't any of anything to spare. And if they don't get medical supplies including antibiotics and other drugs manufacturing routes hammered out, having hospitals won't help that much anyway.

(2) The economic effects of this are likely to be severe and unprecedented. We are just starting to see the supply chain problems. And people aren't likely to go out to restaurants, stay in hotels, and in general travel when something like this is going around. My own suspicion is that we will see maddening and seemingly random shortages of common consumer products and that won't get completely worked out until late in the year.

Shortages of pharmaceuticals and food, with pharmaceuticals quickly taking a back seat.

The fact that everyone is freaking out and things like surgical masks and hand sanitizer are already selling out are really just outriders of the invading horde.

Mutants riding the wavefront.

The U.S. Federal Government screwed up big here. In two ways: the first is that they needed to start aggressive testing and surveillance for this disease a month ago. Right now we are playing catch-up and there is no chance that any containment efforts are going to make any difference. The second is that we are going to very quickly run out of protective gear for first responders and medical professionals -- we should have started stockpiling them two months ago.

The U.S. response is almost as bad as ours.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Some of you are going to be disappointed. Especially when you find out it's pretty much just going to fade away.
The death rate doesn't hold a candle to the other stuff that kills people every year.
The stats have been fudged all over, and it's probly just another flu. This is media hype from the get-go. You'll see. Kind of like an impeachment. LOL

I for one would not be at all disappointed if this pandemic would "fade away."

Also, an infectious disease outbreak doesn't need to kill a lot of people to be disruptive. And we don't really have a reliable number on the case fatality rate because (1) we aren't yet testing at a scale where we can find all of the people infected, (2) not all of the current cases are "resolved", and (3) there are likely people who have died from covid-19 whose cases were misdiagnosed as "viral pneumonia". So making any extrapolations from that necessarily limited data is unlikely to be wise.

As for the idea that the disease will fade away when it gets "warmer": new cases are still appearing in the Philippines, which is not exactly a cold place. The historical precedents aren't good either: Spanish Flu faded way in the United States in the spring of 1918, and came roaring back in the fall.

 

[john peck]

I'm in the high risk age group, the one that represents the clear majority of fatalities. For reasonably healthy
Americans between 5 & 50 without conditions that compromise the immune system the chances of dying
are more likely less than 1%. I have not given myself over to unreasonlng fear. This is but one of a myriad
ways to die. What life I have left I will live boldly unhindered by dread. This is supposedly the 'home of the brave'.

 

[Mulezen]

The % of deaths (rate) will decline as more get tested and a base rate is established...but still Elvis is dead and I don’t feel so good myself...so I guess I’ll go ride

 

[john peck]

The % of deaths (rate) will decline as more get tested and a base rate is established...but still Elvis is dead and I don’t feel so good myself...so I guess I’ll go ride

Cowboy up! Man does not live by dread alone!

 

[Handlebars]

being "brave" and careless could cause the death of others...taking responsibility for protecting others is the straight up way to go, especally when it's an onerous boring task. That's why the forces are taking it responsibly even if the government medical advisors are not.

 

[J.R.]

For the vast majority of people that contract covid 19, it will like the flu. For the average healthy person there will be nothing doctors can do. Like the common cold, there's no cure. It will have to run its course, like the flu.

I went to the grocery store yesterday and it was crazy, the shelves that were empty. Stuff that won't help get over flu, cold, or virus. There's going to be a lot of rubbing alcohol evaporating in peoples houses. Bottled water! The 12 to 16 oz plastic bottle variety, shelves empty. If one has to quarantine at home, why all the little bottles of water? I have a well and I understand having water in the event of an emergency like a power outage. I went to my rural home depot last Friday and a customer was in a panic because she couldn't get N95 masks.

I wish people would settle down. If you want to freakout, freakout at the politicians pointing the finger at the other side, blaming them for mishandling the issue. Both sides should be reassuring the public everytime the speak of the virus. The media loves to see the sides fighting. When I was a kid (a half century ago) I thought grownups were grown up. Maybe I'm wrong. We need some level headed people to lead us.

 

[e-boy]

Fri March 6, 2020

CNN: Older Americans are advised to stay home :
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/06/health/coronavirus-older-people-social-distancing/index.html

New CDC guidance says older adults should 'stay at home as much as possible' due to coronavirus

 

[Handlebars]

Just now a young student was found lying on the ground at my kid's university. Workers wearing Hazmat suits took the student in an ambulance.
The people trying to shut down discussion of a real threat are some of the same people who support a teenager telling kids to quit school because the world ends in 12 yrs due to carbon dioxide.
The reason shelves empty in panic now is because those people were not responsible enough or aware enough to stock up a month ago. Probably the same ones trying to shut down discussion a month ago.

 

[Handlebars]

Precautionary Measures on Medical Incident

Message on behalf of Samina Sami, Executive Director Community Safety: Earlier today, Community Safety responded to a medical incident at the Keele Campus. Emergency Medical Services ( EMS ) was called and the individual was taken to hospital for assessment. As a precaution, we closed the first floor of the affected building and decontaminated the area. We were also immediately in contact with Toronto Public Health to inform them of the situation. They have expressed confidence that all appropriate steps and protocols were followed.


We recognize there is heightened sensitivity due to the global COVID-19 situation and would like to take this opportunity to remind you of the importance of good hand hygiene practices.


Should further updates become available we will update the community.

 

[Ebiker01]

From

For the vast majority of people that contract covid 19, it will like the flu. For the average healthy person the

From what i've read , it can be bad esp. for people who had been smoking or are smoking a lot, have other health issues and not a very strong immune system.
Riding an ebike is very healthy for us, b/c is very little preasure on the immune system as opossed to suffering on a ride and the independence keeps us away from potential infections.

 

[Handlebars]

Re masks - it might be too early ? In Australia we're desperately short of masks due to the bushfires - it was almost impossible to find them in stores 2 weeks ago. Our govt just released a million from stockpiles - call that 3 days if everyone walking through a doctors surgery has to wear one? I think there's another 9 million stockpiled - good luck getting a fresh supply from china! So when do doctors start handing them out? There's definitely not enough for a month of everyone wearing them

Medical centers in some countries are now out of masks and are scouring dental supplies and construction companies for masks.

 

[BrianK]

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

 

[J.R.]

Jerri, 65 years old, contracted the coronavirus and had to be quarantined separately from her husband, who also had the virus, is now back home in Utah. The day after arriving home she went on a 2-1/2 hour mountain bike ride.

Former coronavirus patient says she feels fantastic | Fox News Video

Jerri Jorgensen contracted coronavirus aboard the Diamond Princess cruise ship.

video.foxnews.com

Couple separated by Pacific Ocean -- and coronavirus

"We've both come to better appreciate what really matters in life," said a man quarantined half a world away from his wife.

abcnews.go.com

 

[Mr. Coffee]

They were blaming it on the pangolins meat and the bats. But they were eating those for decades and no covid ! There should be an investigation into this.

Curse of the pangolins- a good artcile a few days ago in Ny times.

Um, you know zoonotic diseases don't work that way? I hope that you don't.

To put it another way, novel flu viruses have jumped between pigs or birds to humans at least a half-dozen times in the last century. They don't jump all at once.

I know @BrianK disagrees with me, but I've seen no serious evidence that covid-19 is a bioweapon or even directly related to the lab in Wuhan. The "evidence" that is circulating in the conspirasphere isn't what I'd call strong.

There are four reasons I don't think covid-19 is a bioweapon, or even vaguely related to bioweapons research:

1. It is the wrong kind of disease vector. Why start with a coronavirus when smallpox, anthrax, or a pneumonic plague would be a better starting point for a highly destructive weapon?
2. There aren't enough dead people, or even enough very sick people. With unaltered variola (smallpox) you could reasonably expect death rates of 30-60 percent.
3. The lockdown of Wuhan would have came sooner and been much more strict.
4. The genetic signature of the virus was released by the Chinese government very early on. If this was a bioweapon or if the government even thought it was a bioweapon there is no possible way they would have done that.

While I have no medical training beyond an EMT (I am not current), I have worked on biostatistics both in analyzing HIV cases and advised on developing early warning systems to detect both a bioweapon attack and a novel disease outbreak. So I am not completely ignorant.

 

[Mulezen]

I couldn’t help but notice the covid-19 popping up at CPAC. Someone has weaponized the hoax

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Milan and Venice are apparently under lockdown. So Seattle probably will be very soon.

 

[PDoz]

Medical centers in some countries are now out of masks and are scouring dental supplies and construction companies for masks.

It gets better - in OZ we have moronic politicians - health ministers! Naming / criticising / closing down doctors who have tested possitive! This poor guy flew back from the states with a runny nose, so not even a flight that the health department guidelines were recommending testing!

Coronavirus: 'Inaccuracies and unfairness' GP Chris Higgins demands apology from health minister"

A Melbourne GP diagnosed with coronavirus has demanded an apology from the state's health minister, as colleagues fume at his treatment.

www.theage.com.au

Now, think of the implications if every health facility was shut down for 2 weeks when a worker tests positive. Or if every person with a sniffle is tested and has to isolate until the test comes back.

The health dept is suggesting full ppe protection for swabbing - so goggles, mask and gown. Yet they have only sent out a limitted dupply of masks ( gowns are not available ) . Pathology labs have signs up saying their staff can't perform the swabs ....if a person is coughing the room needs shutting for 30 mins and cleaning whilst wearing non available ppe equipment.

Makes you wonder how the basic health heeds of the country will be met with every gp clinic closed