Cost/benefit analysis of ebiking versus driving a car

[ebikemom]

Is there an economist in the house? I wonder what my bike costs to run if we factor in...

Costs:

• electricity (this is, I think, very little of the cost of ebiking)
• battery expenses (the battery is a limited-time part of the bike that slowly wears out--my manufacturer says 2-4 years. I do know people who have more than that on their batteries and still have good enough range to use their bikes. Maybe this could be figured out by knowing the number of charge cycles in a particular battery and a person's general range, which differs dramatically from person to person based on their riding habits, terrain, load, etc?)
• coset of the bike
• wear-and-tear items (I need new tires!)
• maintenance costs
• repair costs (after parts-and-labor warranty period for bikes that have great warranties and after "parts only" warranty periods)
• insurance
• others??

Benefits (which of these carries a price tag that could be included in an analysis?):

• Exercise
• Mental health
• Savings on transportation expenses (Should this be included? I mean things like NOT paying parking fees in pay lots)
• Savings on fitness/health expenses (like not paying gym fees??)
• Improved family relationships
• If one no longer owns a car, elimination of the opportunity cost of owning something that carries a 5-digit price tag
• Benefit to the environment--does this carry an economic benefit also?
• Others??

 

[indianajo]

I need a 8' bed pickup or van. Cost ~$40000 which has to be amortized over 10 years because the check engine light makes them useless about 1/2 the time after that. I would drive 25000 miles in that time, so $1.60 per mile plus repairs tires fuel & supplies. Say $2 a mile. Insurance is $950 a year for cars with collision, $600 without. So cost per year $3450 . Costs go down if you drive more miles.
E-bike, $2000 bike & accessories, $1100 for a competent converter kit (I did it for $820 but is not very good). Tires/tubes about $70 a year. Brakes pads + cables about $ 40 a year. Say the battery & motor last 5 years. Cost per year $620. If the frame/shifter/accessories can be reused another 5 years, with new motor & battery, cost per year $530. Thats at 2000 miles a year (that I ride). Tire costs go up if I tour. Electricity, negligible IMHO.
Other cost of owning a bike, I have to rent a u-haul van about 4 times a year at $100 each. Uber/Lyft may make that cheaper.
Heart maintenance? A heart catherization costs medicare about $80000, individual pays maybe $10000 to listen to nightly business report. Regular aerobic exercise is negatively correlated with dementia. Ibuprofen users have slightly less dementia. And regular biking does wonders for my US Army abused knees. Intense 70+ year old road bike riderrs "have the same T-cell levels as 28 year olds" to quote a bbcnews story. So there may be a cancer benefit, certainly an infectious disease benefit.
Death? about 1 chance in 100 of dying in a bike accident in a year, or being permanently crippled. About 1/5 that in a car. Sitting in a chair ruined my Dad's brain in 2 years of retirement, I'd say the average male retirement is about 10 good years and 5 to 10 of troubles. The 96 year olds I know in perfect health swim laps 4 times a week at the Y. Swimming laps is as good for the heart as riding a bike, but costs $840 a year YMCA fees and $80 a week taxi fare (8 trips 5 miles) if one doesn't own a car. Say swimming is $6400 a year for non owners of cars. At $2 a mile, 10 miles a round trip, swimming is still $5600 a year for car ownes, some discount if they make do with a sub-compact car instead of a 3/4 ton pickup.
Global warming benefit? If one pedals 95% of the time like I do, fairly amazing. I don't know the CO2 cost of buililding a 2 ton pickup, but probably 60 times that of a 65 lb e-bike. Miles per gallon, pickup about 20, or $.15 a mile at $3 a gallon. bike @ 15 wh/mile, $.40 a KWH here $.006 per miles, double it for charger inefficienty, $.012 per miles. Not much carbon even running the motor all the time. Much less if one pedals 95% of the time.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

If you don't use a car to commute to work your auto insurance can drop dramatically. Depending on when and where it might drop 75 percent or more.

If you live in a pretty high-density urban environment where traffic is bad (e.g. Seattle, San Francisco, &c) you could easily save $1000 per year on parking and insurance alone.

 

[PDoz]

The bike costs a LOT more per km , but was FANTASTIC value !

According to my tax return, my car costs me $8 k ( australian ) per year to run - that includes depreciation, insurance, rego, fuel, maintenance , tyres etc. It's been a similar figure for the past 10 years , and I average 20,000 km a year - so lets say 40 c per km ( so even with tax deduction benefits , that's 25 c a km - for either a 4x4 ute of 7 seater ( they get passed on to my wife every 3 / 4 years of tax cycle)

In the past year I've done 1200 km on my ( mountain) bike, replaced 3 chains, 2 tyres, 3 sets of brake pads, and I'd be lucky to have only lost $2 k in value if I was to try and sell it. Lets pretend that's only $3 a km , and ignore all the $ I've spent on bling......

So how do you put a $ figure on smiles / miles? For me that's easy - if someone stole my bike , I'd be at the shop tomorrow buying another and I'd feel a LOT more comfortable upgrading to a more expensive model. The car? I'd wait until they were suitably discounted, and even then think long and hard about what I really needed.

Crazy ? Well...yesterday I did a 15 km ride with my 14 yo daughter , so $45 for this priceless memory? Bargain.

 

[ebikemom]

Tax deduction for your car? We don't get that here in the US!

 

[PDoz]

Tax deduction for your car? We don't get that here in the US!

The tax game is our national sport in Australia - not only do we love , er, minimising tax, but the politicians seem to have developed a new superpower - pre election tax promise illusions.....

Meanwhile, our fuel / vehicles / mechanics are taxed , then we pay accountants to try and get back some of that tax, then the tax dept pays tax enforcement officers to catch people who bend the rules excessively, so everyone can pay the lawyers to find out if the latest preelection tax illusion has been stretched enough to have morphed from tax minimilisation to evasion. It's called stimulating the economy.

 

[Bill Brikiatis]

Did you leave gas savings off the list on purpose? Or is it included in the transportation expense bucket? I'd like to know the gas vs electricity difference. I would think it's pretty significant if you bike instead of dino auto a number of miles.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Did you leave gas savings off the list on purpose? Or is it included in the transportation expense bucket? I'd like to know the gas vs electricity difference. I would think it's pretty significant if you bike instead of dino auto a number of miles.

I have an 8kw solar array on my roof. Since that is a sunk cost the marginal cost of electricity for me is very close to zero. So basically my e-bike runs on free electrons.

Even if you make very pessimistic estimates on electricity costs and very optimistic ones on fuel, I'm guessing the cost ratio is very small.

 

[MechaNut]

Did you leave gas savings off the list on purpose? Or is it included in the transportation expense bucket? I'd like to know the gas vs electricity difference. I would think it's pretty significant if you bike instead of dino auto a number of miles.

Range on an e-bike isn't as straight forward as with a car. The more you pedal and the less you rely on the motor to do the work the further you can go on a single charge. That said, this is about as close as an apples to apples comparison that I can think to come up with "fuel" cost wise.

1 gallon of gasoline will get my car about 25 miles for about $2.75 US. 1 full charge of the battery pack on my e-bike will get the bike about 30 miles using nothing but throttle for $0.05 in electricity (1 kwh).

 

[PDoz]

Sorry but your math is wrong.
ebike is cheaper than cars, by far.

Your fundamental error in calculation is that you only use your bike for very little distance, whereas you use cars for a lot of distance, which pays off more you drive.
You need to compare the both vehicles (car & ebike) using the same distance.

I'll give you an example of your error.

Let's suppose you commute 20,000km a year.

Your car costs $8,000 to operate to cover 20,000kms
Your bike costs $2,000 to operate to cover 1,200kms

The problem here is that you assumed the bike will keep depreciating at $2,000 per 1,200km ride.
How much does your bike cost? Because under this assumption, your MTB will depreciate $20,000 if you ride 12,000km. (or cost to operate, but the majority will be the depreciation)

In case my explanation is still confusing...
What if I buy a mountain bike for $1,000 and use it for 100kms a year? And claim that it costed me $10/km to operate. That would be pretty damn expensive transportation, because I didn't use it enough to pay off.
What if I ride for 1,000km? Now my cost to operate is down to $1/km. What if I ride for 5,000km? Now it is down to $0.20/km to operate. However by this time I probably needed new brake pads, tires, etc.. but considering maintenance & repairs, it shouldn't cost me that much.
In fact, my ebike has been costing me a lot less than driving a car.

You need to compare the same distance.
If your commute is 20,000km a year, you need to calculate how much it would cost to ride your ebike 20,000km.

We have very different usage patterns - I live in a small rural town , commuting is a very small fraction of my transportation needs ( 10-20 km / day depending on if I want to come home for lunch ) , most of my transportation is work related and time critical so even an illegal derestricted ebike wouldn't be feasible transport.

For me, the bike is pure recreation , So if you really want to play maths it's only fair to include my time and the speed difference in that equation - I'd rather not do that, because then I'd feel guilty of how much those priceless rides are costing !

I wish I hadn't played this game......how about we reverse the maths? We work so we can enjoy the things we value? For me, that's family time, riding ( bike + motorbikes) , sailing, and chocolate. Perhaps I could argue family car time is the only family time I don't enjoy........and start calculating cost per hour rather than km ? Or eat more chocolate whilst riding with the family to the yacht? It's only a 150 km round trip......

 

[Bartleby]

I
Death? about 1 chance in 100 of dying in a bike accident in a year, or being permanently crippled. About 1/5 that in a car.

Do you have any source for those numbers? The last time I checked the death rate for cars was about 1.18 in 100 million vehicle miles (https://www.nhtsa.gov/press-releases/usdot-releases-2016-fatal-traffic-crash-data) and the death rate for motorcycles was approximately 37 times as high (https://www.2keller.com/library/motorcycle-accident-statistics-motorcycle-accident-facts.cfm). I have never found reliable statistics about the death rate for biking, though I would presume it is likely to be either close to a car's death rate or somewhere in between a car and a motorcycle. Also keep in mind that the numbers I am citing above are for all-comers, so if you never drive drunk, drive tired, drive recklessly, etc then presumably your risk would be diminished at least somewhat.

If I had a 1 in 100 chance per year of death or permanent disability from biking I would stop today!

 

[Bartleby]

Actually this site (https://bicycleuniverse.com/bicycle-safety-almanac/) backs up an approximately 3-11x higher risk of death per mile while biking v in a car.

 

[PDoz]

If I had a 1 in 100 chance per year of death or permanent disability from biking I would stop today!

I guess it depends on how you measure - fatality per mile vs per hour usage - given the different speeds etc, and how much you correct for the health benefits of cycling / increased activity / reduce obesity related deaths , then factor in the local infrastructure and how bike friendly it is.

But if you really want to calculate annual risk of death from commuting by cycle , punch your annual hours into 0.425 f/mhu ( https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214140517306035 ) , but remember that's urban usage in the UK.

The challenge is how to then correct for the health benefits - perhaps using comparative population data between an infrastructure friendly countries in europe vs the us ( or perhaps use a non fructose consuming country , Australia? )

 

[ebikemom]

this is about as close as an apples to apples comparison that I can think to come up with "fuel" cost wise.

Do we consider battery cost as part of "fuel" also? How do we account for the cost of a battery over the life/mileage of the bike ... thoughts?

 

[indianajo]

Do we consider battery cost as part of "fuel" also? How do we account for the cost of a battery over the life/mileage of the bike ... thoughts?

See post 2. $2000 BIcycle plus $1100 motor battery worn out in 5 years $620 a year. Bicycle lasts 10 years 2 motor battery sets needed, $530/yr. Motors wear out too. Non-builders buy on average a $3000 e-cycle, replacement OEM motor & battery are usually so expensive people buy a new bicycle at 5 years. So cost up to $500 a year plus tires tubes brake pads cables derailleurs etc
Risk of dying in traffic accident 1% a year? I made up the number but list of risks always show walking and biking equal at extremely high. Lower than sky diving and xtreme sports. I'm age 68, I have 50% chance of becoming demented age 88 (2 grandparents did it). Aerobic exercise 30 minutes 4X a week cuts that chance, see bbcnews.com health page. I'd rather die than be demented. My father lost his ability to make sense of books he read in 2 years of retirement, due to stroke. Bicycling 2000 miles/yr has pushed this out to 10 years of retirement so far for me with a good brain, good heart, good choresterol, good A1C #. I have same diseases he did, HBP, diabetes 2. He died after 8 years of retirement in a chair, 6 of them horrid.
If you have children to support, you may be better off swimming laps or polka dancing instead of bicycling. (I knew a lady 93 who polka danced 3X weekly, killed her dance partner in a car wreck age 93, she died the year after she stopped dancing. ) Driving everywhere increases CO2 that leads to global warming, increases risk of dying in a hurricane on the coast, flood in a river valley, forest fire in an arid region. But, everybody is doing it.

 

[NatPedaler]

Here is my hypothetically scenario where I just guesstimate some of the costs. Again, from the cost perspective it will be way cheaper to switch to ebike plus we all know the health benefits and environmental friendliness factors are priceless



Car: 2019 Honda Accord V6

• Cost $30,000
• Insurance $600
• Usage 10,000 miles /years
• Cost of fuel per year $3/gal 30 miles/gal. = $1000
• Oil Change cost oil/labor = twice @5000 mile interval $100*2 = $200
• Registration + purchase tax = $3,199
• Total = $31,800 + $3,199 = $34,999 (1st year)
• Second year = $1000 (fuel) + $200(oil change) +$300 (registration) + $600(insurance) + $200 (tire) = $2,300
• Total of the first 2 years = $37,299
• Next 2 years after cost will be 37, 299 - 30000= 7,299 + $600 (tires) = $7,899
• Health benefit is ZERO
• Environmental friendly is ZERO

Bike: R & M Homage GX HS with IGH

• Cost =. $10,000
• Insurance = 300 X2 =$600
• Usage 10,000 miles/years
• Drive train = 800 (after 20,000 miles) + 120 install cost = $920
• Tire+ tube = $300 + $120 (brake pads)
• Tune up = 120 * 8 = $960
• New battery packs after 2 years = $1,800
• Electricity = $200 (2 years)
• Total of the first 2 years = $14,900
• Next 2 years after, cost will be $14,900 - $10,000= $4,900
• Health benefits are priceless
• Environmental friendly is priceless

 

[City Commuter]

The medical bills are much cheaper with ebikes. I ricocheted off a fire hydrant with my motorcycle, and rear ended a car with another motorcycle (ouch, and hospitals). I was stopped at a stop sign on a highway, and a woman slammed into me at over sixty mph while she was busy texting (that hurt, permanent spinal cord injury, broken neck bones). I had a drunk guy rear end me in my then new car, that sent me to the hospital for a day.

Ebike= $0 medical bills and no pain.

 

[MechaNut]

Do we consider battery cost as part of "fuel" also? How do we account for the cost of a battery over the life/mileage of the bike ... thoughts?

The battery is a wear item, not a consumable. Fuel and electricity are consumables, you use them up every time you ride the bike/car. The battery falls into the same category of things like tires, brakes, windshield wipers, car batteries, serpentine belts, and so forth. Things that wear out over time that need to be replaced on a schedule. It should be treated as part of the operational cost of the bike, but it most definitely isn't "fuel cost".

 

[steve mercier]

Here is my hypothetically scenario where I just guesstimate some of the costs. Again, from the cost perspective it will be way cheaper to switch to ebike plus we all know the health benefits and environmental friendliness factors are priceless



Car: 2019 Honda Accord V6

• Cost $30,000
• Insurance $600
• Usage 10,000 miles /years
• Cost of fuel per year $3/gal 30 miles/gal. = $1000
• Oil Change cost oil/labor = twice @5000 mile interval $100*2 = $200
• Registration + purchase tax = $3,199
• Total = $31,800 + $3,199 = $34,999 (1st year)
• Second year = $1000 (fuel) + $200(oil change) +$300 (registration) + $600(insurance) + $200 (tire) = $2,300
• Total of the first 2 years = $37,299
• Next 2 years after cost will be 37, 299 - 30000= 7,299 + $600 (tires) = $7,899
• Health benefit is ZERO
• Environmental friendly is ZERO

Bike: R & M Homage GX HS with IGH

• Cost =. $10,000
• Insurance = 300 X2 =$600
• Usage 10,000 miles/years
• Drive train = 800 (after 20,000 miles) + 120 install cost = $920
• Tire+ tube = $300 + $120 (brake pads)
• Tune up = 120 * 8 = $960
• New battery packs after 2 years = $1,800
• Electricity = $200 (2 years)
• Total of the first 2 years = $14,900
• Next 2 years after, cost will be $14,900 - $10,000= $4,900
• Health benefits are priceless
• Environmental friendly is priceless

Wow you can get full coverage for $600 bucks there? Here it is at least twice that amount ( $500 deductible and $3 million liability) and gas is currently $1.70 per litre in the lower mainland of BC. It costs about 10 cents to charge 2 batteries per day so lets round up to $1 per week or $52 per year which is less than one tank of gas . Even the priciest Ebike is way cheaper, and it is no contest. But of course you get cold and wet in winter and you cannot carry 3 or 4 passengers, so it's like comparing apples and watermelons. An Ebike cannot fully replace a car but it could replace a second car .

 

[sl_duck]

I put together a little spreadsheet to answer this question for myself (and so I could justify getting an e-bike instead of using the half dozen regular bikes in the garage).
Feel free to copy and use it for your situation. For me, the bike was saving me money immediately vs driving my car to work. The more km I could use the bike instead of the car the better. The e-bike tips the balance and makes riding to work everyday easy, instead of only a couple times a week with a regular bike. There is a point though, if you get an expensive bike and don't use it very much, that it simply becomes an added expense as your car savings don't offset the depreciation of the bike.
I include a "comfort price" in the calculation, which is how much you would want to pay for the added comfort of commuting in a car. This may even be negative if you would be willing to pay extra to not have the stress of commuting by car.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1K42GClcG_Fq2JdWX4J2STKNptJNnXtDhSr5v_otv6Po/edit?usp=sharing

I didn't include electricity costs, as they are negligible here. 500km/month costs me $0.80.