CDC 2019 to 2020 US flu season estimates

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From Stanford Study on Covid 19:
42
people without one of the defined underlying conditions died. (i.e. defined underlying conditions: Diabetes, Heart Disease, Lung Cancer, COPD, etc)
5,891 with one or more underlying causes did. That's 0.71% of those with confirmed cases, which means you're symptomatic enough to get tested.

Now add at least half that for the asymptomatics and maybe more -- in fact the evidence is that we're already at or near herd immunity levels based on multiple seropositive surveys -- not just the one run by Stanford but in many other locations as well! In addition we know only 12%, approximately, of those symptomatic enough to get tested require hospitalization in the first place. If the Stanford study holds then that's overstating the risk by fifty times or more which means you're more-likely to die from any other cause than Covid-19 at any age provided you are not on that "it may get you" list of conditions.

For reference this is pretty comparable to your all-cause mortality rate at any age beyond 24 without taking the Stanford (and two other smaller state studies ) into account and yet the risk of dying of this bug has been used to scare the bejeezus out of the entire population. (and rendered more than 20 million people unemployed)
What are the odds that all three of those studies, in three diverse population groups in three different places in the United States are all wrong?

Nearly zero, and yet if they're correct then the risk isn't even 0.36% -- it's 1/50th of that or less which means the actual risk for a healthy person is roughly 0.0072%!

In other words for something that is roughly as likely, or less-so, than the ordinary risk you take going to get the mail from your mailbox you have been, and continue to willing to comply with some governor, or mayor, while allowing them to destroy the American economy. Their ability to claim "mistake" has irrevocably evaporated with these facts.

Study found here: https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/doh/downloads/pdf/imm/covid-19-daily-data-summary-deaths-04172020-1.pdf

So How long is everyone willing to tolerate these continued lockdowns, especially if they don't have any of the serious underlying conditions ? If everyone recalls, The President wanted to open the economy back on April 10th.

Interesting data from the Stanford study... thanks for sharing the truth. ;)
I'm also a Stanford guy and a bit surprised that this research is not getting more press... I guess it does not fit the current narrative.

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In any case, be careful on your next ride on the Olympic Discovery Trail: I've heard the mountain goats have been ignoring the stay at home order and congregating around trailheads and roads🐐
I'll keep a watchful eye, & arm myself against the threat. I've heard mountain goats make a tasty snack. Then again, maybe
I'll head down to Florida & look for drunk bikinied coeds on the beach.😎 Why should they be havin' all the fun?
 
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Who Noted Birx Today In Presser?
Who caught it?

One of the members of the press asked the obvious: Given that we now have studies showing prevalence of Covid-19 fifty times the reported case rate this means the fatality rate is much lower than reported, and in fact similar to the seasonal flu, isn't it?


Anyone notice that she didn't answer the question, and instead went on a rant about selectivity of the antibody tests?

She was trapped and she knew it which is why she didn't answer the question; yes the selectivity is an issue, but all that does is produce a wider confidence band than you'd like -- it doesn't invalidate the results.

-- the press is onto it now, and eventually the people will be on to it too: THE LOCKDOWNS HAVE BEEN WORTHLESS.
I've noticed wild fluctuation in the death toll. A week ago i saw one said 36k dead, day before yesterday saw 28k
then over night it jumped to 40k today. Truth of late has become unrecognizable.
 
"Those who would trade a bit of freedom for a bit of security will have neither & lose both."
Benjamin Franklin

Have we not moved on in the past 200 + years? Many of our lives are MORE free due to improved security.

In Australia, an app is about to be released that theoretically could help with contract tracing. Now, before everyone puts on allfoil hats - all it does is record the app details of other phones within bluetooth (1.5 m ) range for over 15 minutes. This data is then stored JUST ON THE PHONE , and encrypted so the user can't find out who that cute person they've been stalking is. Data is wiped at 2 weeks, no geo location data kept.

Nothing uploaded to anywhere until you get diagnosed with covid, at which stage the encrypted data can be uploaded by the covid tracing health authorities and anyone smart enough to have had the app can be warned they are potentially exposed.

It us completely voluntary to have the app - but you get warned if you've spent 15 minutes clise enough to a covid spreader to now be at risk.

Soooo.....if we get universal use of the app and try to maintain social distancing - there is a very real chance that we can hit covid HARD. As a nation , we're down to 35-50 new cases a day , that's right - just double digits. oh, and we're doing a LOT of swabs now so whilst that's not perfect data, it's a reasonable indication of why we are managing just 3 deaths per million population . We're going to have a LOT more freedom when daily infection rates get to zero.

ps , all this talk about death rates - we really need to start thinking about morbidity - living with punched out lungs or floppy ineffective hearts, stroke victims from prolonged poor oxygen supply , or family members grieving after their children / spouses / siblings die. Workers who never return after months of work in fear / exhaustion. Death is only a very small part if the social cost of this pandemic, and measuring economics against just a death rate is short sighted
 
About that Stanford study that has everyone so excited: this guy calls it "bunk":


And this medium post also more rigorously calls their conclusions into question:


TL;DR on the above is pretty straightforward:
  • Tiny differences in the false-positive rate can produce enormous differences in the suspected rate of infection. And the false positive rate of the test used in the study is much higher than their estimate.
  • People may well have participated in the study because they thought they were exposed and wanted to get a test, which they couldn't get any other way. Since subjects were recruited on Facebook and there was extensive word-of-mouth recruitment on this study it is hard to say this study was on a random sample of the population.
  • The rate of seropositivity found in the study is hard to resolve with how quickly this disease could possibly spread.
  • The estimates of fatality rates don't match up with mortality rates we are seeing in the real world. Right now covid-19 is the #1 cause of death in the United States. Overall all-cause mortality is also very high currently, and it is hard to explain why that would be unless this disease is killing a lot of people.
Also, a special bonus about how even if the fatality rate is "not that high" and you aren't in a high-risk group, getting this disease is still going to not be very fun:

 
Just to put things in perspective, we have something like 40k odd C-19 deaths. That'a miniscule
fraction of the annual US total all causes, CDC figures from 2017 list 723.6 deaths per 100,000
all causes, in other words, more than 2.3 million deaths. C-19 is a really bad flu, but nowhere
near as bad as it's being made to look by media. You are many times more likely to die of something else.
 
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>snip

So How long is everyone willing to tolerate these continued lockdowns, especially if they don't have any of the serious underlying conditions ? If everyone recalls, The President wanted to open the economy back on April 10th.

You're not allowed to disagree with the masses, and generally accepted feelings and fears they have.
This thread has been reported for 'false information'. 😊
 
You're not allowed to disagree with the masses, and generally accepted feelings and fears they have.
This thread has been reported for 'false information'. 😊
"I didn't surrender but they made my horse surrender, I think they've got him pulling a wagon up in Kansas."
Chief Dan George
"It's a good day to die."
 
Just to put things in perspective, we have something like 40k odd C-19 deaths. That'a miniscule
fraction of the annual US total all causes, CDC figures from 2017 list 723.6 deaths per 100,000
all causes, in other words, more than 2.3 million deaths. C-19 is a really bad flu, but nowhere
near as bad as it's being made to look by media. You are many times more likely to die of something else.
OK.... heart disease was the leading cause of death in 2017. You were many times more likely to die of something else besides heart disease also, so I don't understand when you make that statement what it really accomplishes. You're pretty much always many times more likely to die of something else besides any single cause of death in the modern US.

I also don't get comparing 2 months of deaths from a new disease to 12 months of deaths from ALL causes. If your point is that the media is overblowing it, then purposely minimizing it with a poor comparison just weakens your point. Look at the same same chart you pulled your numbers from: C-19 would ALREADY be jockeying for position 8, 9 ,or 10 in leading causes.

Outside of NYC, it appears we are more or less dodging the bullet. We're lucky the virus only hit critical mass in NYC so far. Do you think things would look the same if we hadn't shut down? Do you think there's really little to no chance of a repeat elsewhere of whats happened in NYC if we flip the switch and go back to 'normal' now?
 
I'm not a doctor but I've seen one on TV. Are you feeling distanced from the masses? Do you have
insufficient adrenalin to cope with your terror? You need Imbesol in caps or tablets. It will help
make agoraphobia your new way of life & suppress to the desire for intelligent conversation.
No longer will dread feel like an out of place emotion. Side effects include uncontrollable trembling,
OCD, wrinkled hands from excessive immersion. & impaired breathing from soggy masks.
 
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This is disengenuous. NO one is advocating for this.
It was not intended disingenuously - when I hear the 'it's no worse than the flu' argument there's a strong implication to me that our response should be similar to how we treat a rough flu season. I'm glad to hear NO one is advocating this. BTW I thought it was obvious from my wording that 'normal' coming out of this will not be the same as what normal going into the situation meant for any of us.
 
OK.... heart disease was the leading cause of death in 2017. You were many times more likely to die of something else besides heart disease also, so I don't understand when you make that statement what it really accomplishes. You're pretty much always many times more likely to die of something else besides any single cause of death in the modern US.

I also don't get comparing 2 months of deaths from a new disease to 12 months of deaths from ALL causes. If your point is that the media is overblowing it, then purposely minimizing it with a poor comparison just weakens your point. Look at the same same chart you pulled your numbers from: C-19 would ALREADY be jockeying for position 8, 9 ,or 10 in leading causes.

Outside of NYC, it appears we are more or less dodging the bullet. We're lucky the virus only hit critical mass in NYC so far. Do you think things would look the same if we hadn't shut down? Do you think there's really little to no chance of a repeat elsewhere of whats happened in NYC if we flip the switch and go back to 'normal' now?
"Do you think things would look the same if we hadn't shut down?'
No, because shutting down has a reducing effect.

What would things look like if it took years and no vaccine could control it? What would kids be like growing up without real social contacts with real other kids? What kind of hell would it be for everyone to be imprisoned for life?
All or nothing isn't a realistic way to approach this problem.
Starvation comes soon, the way farms are going down.
Quarantine of the infected makes more sense than quarantine of the healthy.

Masks and goggles WORK. The health authorities all lied to us about that.
 
In Australia, an app is about to be released that theoretically could help with contract tracing. Now, before everyone puts on allfoil hats - all it does is record the app details of other phones within bluetooth (1.5 m ) range for over 15 minutes. This data is then stored JUST ON THE PHONE , and encrypted so the user can't find out who that cute person they've been stalking is. Data is wiped at 2 weeks, no geo location data kept.

Nothing uploaded to anywhere until you get diagnosed with covid, at which stage the encrypted data can be uploaded by the covid tracing health authorities and anyone smart enough to have had the app can be warned they are potentially exposed.

It us
Have we not moved on in the past 200 + years? Many of our lives are MORE free due to improved security.

In Australia, an app is about to be released that theoretically could help with contract tracing. Now, before everyone puts on allfoil hats - all it does is record the app details of other phones within bluetooth (1.5 m ) range for over 15 minutes. This data is then stored JUST ON THE PHONE , and encrypted so the user can't find out who that cute person they've been stalking is. Data is wiped at 2 weeks, no geo location data kept.

Nothing uploaded to anywhere until you get diagnosed with covid, at which stage the encrypted data can be uploaded by the covid tracing health authorities and anyone smart enough to have had the app can be warned they are potentially exposed.

It us completely voluntary to have the app - but you get warned if you've spent 15 minutes clise enough to a covid spreader to now be at risk.

Soooo.....if we get universal use of the app and try to maintain social distancing - there is a very real chance that we can hit covid HARD. As a nation , we're down to 35-50 new cases a day , that's right - just double digits. oh, and we're doing a LOT of swabs now so whilst that's not perfect data, it's a reasonable indication of why we are managing just 3 deaths per million population . We're going to have a LOT more freedom when daily infection rates get to zero.

ps , all this talk about death rates - we really need to start thinking about morbidity - living with punched out lungs or floppy ineffective hearts, stroke victims from prolonged poor oxygen supply , or family members grieving after their children / spouses / siblings die. Workers who never return after months of work in fear / exhaustion. Death is only a very small part if the social cost of this pandemic, and measuring economics against just a death rate is short sighted


to have the app - but you get warned if you've spent 15 minutes clise enough to a covid spreader to now be at risk.

Soooo.....if we get universal use of the app and try to maintain social distancing - there is a very real chance that we can hit covid HARD. As a nation , we're down to 35-50 new cases a day , that's right - just double digits. oh, and we're doing a LOT of swabs now so whilst that's not perfect data, it's a reasonable indication of why we are managing just 3 deaths per million population . We're going to have a LOT more freedom when daily infection rates get to zero.

ps , all this talk about death rates - we really need to start thinking about morbidity - living with punched out lungs or floppy ineffective hearts, stroke victims from prolonged poor oxygen supply , or family members grieving after their children / spouses / siblings die. Workers who never return after months of work in fear / exhaustion. Death is only a very small part if the social cost of this pandemic, and measuring economics against just a death rate is short sighted
...something like James Clapper said.
All personal data will not be collected. Not intentionally.

completely voluntary to have the app
Soooo.....if we get universal use of the app
 
A friend just sent a picture of a guy filling his shopping cart with a gun in one hand.
"Try not to go crazy my son"
Chief Dan George
 
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