30 Chinese Cities are on Level 1 lockdown

[Mr. Coffee]

Frankly I don't see how we'll hit the forecast numbers, and that's a good thing. As mentioned upthread, we have 5 cases out of 50K population, and the city next to us is 68K with 6 cases. To get to the 20% infection and 1% deaths, we have a VERY long way to go. I just don't see that happening in the next couple of weeks. That means we are looking at 10K infections and 100 deaths.

Which forecast?

There were only a few hundred cases in the whole country a month ago, and now we are pushing 150k cases.

This thing, on a national scale, appears to be doubling about once every three days. It also appears that any measures you take will take about two weeks to have any impact on he growth rate. So it is reasonable to assume that we have four doublings baked in from where we already are.

Which would give us about 2.25 million cases in-country by Tax Day.

There are big caveats on both sides of that number: a lot of parts of the country have implemented halfway decent social distancing measures. But a lot of parts haven't. And a lot of places aren't adequately testing (Washington and New York are at South Korea-levels of testing, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Louisiana, and California are a bit behind and catching up, and everybody else is far back in the weeds) and even in states where there is good test coverage some regions and some populations are still poorly counted.

Also, in spite of various lockdowns and stay-at-home orders, a lot of people are circulating around. All of the vacation rentals nearby are full-up, and the part time homes (2 out of 3 homes in my area) are also pretty full. Which makes things entertaining at the grocery store and will likely make things much more entertaining later when folks realize they are 50+ miles from the nearest hospital (I think there are five or six ventilators in the whole county at two hospitals).

So I wouldn't be 100 percent sure we even know the shape and magnitude of the problem yet. It might be much smaller than we expect, and it might be insanely larger. Humans are bad at understanding exponential growth.

 

[Browneye]

I was speaking directly for the city in which I live - 50K population, 5 cases. I think there are 6 now. Our gov says 50% of population will get infected - so if that is true, we'll go from 6 to 25K in 2 weeks?
Even doubling every three days, for 15 days, equals 96 cases, and even with a death rate of 2%, mostly they say 1%, but that's still just a hundred cases and 2 deaths at 2%. Okay, let's make it 4% - that's 4 deaths.

Please, tell me where the other 24K cases will come from. Or even 20% infection rate, or 10K infected. I'm dying to know.

EDIT: Let's go one step further and say 80% cases are undected - so that means we really have 80 cases currently, and doubling every three days is still just 1280. I understand the numbers around the hot spots, but not for the rest of the nation. Where will the other cases come from?

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I was speaking directly for the city in which I live - 50K population, 5 cases. I think there are 6 now. Our gov says 50% of population with get infected - so if that is true, we'll go from 6 to 25K in 2 weeks?
Even doubling every three days, for 15 days, equals 96 cases, and even with a death rate of 2%, mostly they say 1%, but that's still just a hundred cases and 2 deaths at 2%. Okay, let's make it 4% - that's 4 deaths.

Please, tell me where the other 24K cases will come from. Or even 20% infection rate, or 10K infected. I'm dying to know.

EDIT: Let's go one step further and say 80% cases are undected - so that means we really have 80 cases currently, and doubling every three days is still just 1280. I understand the numbers around the hot spots, but not for the rest of the nation. Where will the other cases come from?

You are very probably right.

To be fair, if I were a public health official I would almost certainly give a range of estimated case counts, and I've noticed that when you give ranges to the media or elected officials they tend to focus on one number (usually whichever one fits the story they are telling) and not the range.

There are also pretty huge error bars on most of the case count figures, and depending on how much testing has been done in your area and what percentage of positive cases they are finding that might make those error bars skinnier or much much wider.

 

[Browneye]

We have no shortage of testing. It's still the slow kind, so surely there are some pending test results, but anyone here that needs a test gets one. We have drive-thru testing centers at all the hospitals, everyone is geared up for this.

If the peak is 3 weeks away then our counts could double once more, maybe twice, so conceivably we could have 5080 based on my worst-case numbers of 80% are asymptomatic. I don't think at this stage we have that, I think we have maybe 25% asymptomatic, but we'll see. Another figure that gets floated around is the number of positives for a given number of tests - that seems to range from around 10% to up to 20%. They tend to not float that number, just talk about how many new cases. Of course there's going to be new cases - testing is just getting ramped up.

Either which way, everyone should wear a mask in public so the disease is not spread to others.

One other thing that keeps getting claimed is that this is an unprecedented viral spread. It's just not. We've had many of them. What IS unprecedented is the shut down of the world economy, the likes we've never seen before. And the US government in the past had a slush fund to utilize for situations like this - today we have none. Just more debt.

I sure hope somebody knows what the hell they're doing. I don't trust anybody anymore. Sorry to sound so cynical, but there always seems to be an agenda.

 

[J.R.]

With MAGA hats...

Do you think this is the time for divisiveness? Dividing neighbors over politics? Is the vitriol comforting to you? I'm serious about the question.

 

[Browneye]

He’s a leftist. They think they know better.
They know better how to run your life than YOU do!
Homey don’t playdat.

 

[Browneye]

Okay, so back to the task at hand...
We have 40m people in CA. The infected count is rising exponentially, nearly 6k cases.
So 99.85% of the population is virus-free.

Somehow I’m having trouble relating to the real numbers. We keep waiting for big spikes, maybe we’ll get them in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Handlebars]

Wow, our State TV network actually ran a special talking about the mask "controversy"! The sludgepile admits there is public dissent and a forming international consensus for maskwearing ...but in the end, they crumb for casting doubt and somewhat idiotically supporting the government position. "Don't bother"

 

[Deleted member 4210]

My understanding is much of the transmission is via contact, and it involves the hands and fecal matter. Thats why many are saying Masks arent really going to stop the spread that much.

Here is a couple of really informative video's on whats happening on the front lines in hospitals, and you might be shocked to learn that the single most dangerous vectors (amplifiers) of the spread are hospitals at the moment here in the US. That was also the situation in Wuhan initially, but they turned things around within about 30 days.

A New Hope


The Right Way to End this

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Okay, so back to the task at hand...
We have 40m people in CA. The infected count is rising exponentially, nearly 6k cases.
So 99.85% of the population is virus-free.

Somehow I’m having trouble relating to the real numbers. We keep waiting for big spikes, maybe we’ll get them in the next 2 weeks.

I'd suggest taking a gander at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ , which is far and away the best visualization of what is happening with COVID-19 in the United States.

When I look at the numbers (as of right now) for California I see the following:

Cases: 7296
Tests: 84485, 23.1% positive
Tests/1M population: 2138

Okay, South Korea had done about 6000-odd tests per 1M population as of about ten days ago, and they are held up as the Gold Standard for testing right now. So CA probably hasn't got the greatest testing penetration to really know where the virus is and is not. Plus, the fact that 23% of the tests are positive indicates that they aren't yet looking hard enough to find where the virus is not.

For some comparisons, I'll show how the commie ecotopians in Washington are doing:

Cases: 5187
Tests: 65462, 7.5% positive
Tests/1M population: 8596

And New York:

Cases: 67384
Tests: 186468, 35.7% positive
Tests/1M population: 9585

And North Dakota:

Cases: 109
Tests: 3837, 2.8% positive
Tests/1M population: 5035

What conclusions could I draw from this?

1. New York is righteously f****d
2. California hasn't done enough testing to know where the virus is and is not, and although they are massively ramping up testing, you probably won't have a real handle on how many cases you do have for a couple weeks. There could easily be ten or twenty times as many cases right now that just haven't been noticed yet.
3. There aren't many cases in North Dakota. If they had the staff or made the staff available they could probably do contact tracing to run all of the cases down and isolate their contacts and eradicate covid-19 from North Dakota
4. Washington probably has a fairly good handle on the outbreak. With caveats: the testing is very concentrated in the Puget Sound region, and in particular some of the more isolated parts of the state in the far southwest and southeast haven't had very many tests.

 

[Browneye]

And why there’s no way I would go near a hospital unless I was nearly dead. Lol

When we lived out in the country up in WA the local hospital, Valley General, we called it Death Valley, cuz people went in and never came back out.

They were the ones that missed my fractured skull the first time I broke my head.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

And why there’s no way I would go near a hospital unless I was nearly dead. Lol

When we lived out in the country up in WA the local hospital, Valley General, we called it Death Valley, cuz people went in and never came back out.

They were the ones that missed my fractured skull the first time I broke my head.

"Dr. Z" (in the video's, Dr Zuban Damania) who is a real doctor and interfaces with MANY in the industry on a regular basis, says 'we don't have a culture of washing our hands religiously' (thats our health professionals IN US HOSPITALS - WTH? )

 

[Mr. Coffee]

"Dr. Z" (in the video's, Dr Zuban Damania) who is a real doctor and interfaces with MANY in the industry on a regular basis, says 'we don't have a culture of washing our hands religiously' (thats our health professionals IN US HOSPITALS - WTH? )

I thought we worked that out in the 19th century:

Ignaz Semmelweis - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[FlatSix911]

I'd suggest taking a gander at https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/ , which is far and away the best visualization of what is happening with COVID-19 in the United States.

When I look at the numbers (as of right now) for California I see the following:

Cases: 7296
Tests: 84485, 23.1% positive
Tests/1M population: 2138

Okay, South Korea had done about 6000-odd tests per 1M population as of about ten days ago, and they are held up as the Gold Standard for testing right now. So CA probably hasn't got the greatest testing penetration to really know where the virus is and is not. Plus, the fact that 23% of the tests are positive indicates that they aren't yet looking hard enough to find where the virus is not.

For some comparisons, I'll show how the commie ecotopians in Washington are doing:

Cases: 5187
Tests: 65462, 7.5% positive
Tests/1M population: 8596

And New York:

Cases: 67384
Tests: 186468, 35.7% positive
Tests/1M population: 9585

And North Dakota:

Cases: 109
Tests: 3837, 2.8% positive
Tests/1M population: 5035

What conclusions could I draw from this?

1. New York is righteously f****d
2. California hasn't done enough testing to know where the virus is and is not, and although they are massively ramping up testing, you probably won't have a real handle on how many cases you do have for a couple weeks. There could easily be ten or twenty times as many cases right now that just haven't been noticed yet.
3. There aren't many cases in North Dakota. If they had the staff or made the staff available they could probably do contact tracing to run all of the cases down and isolate their contacts and eradicate covid-19 from North Dakota
4. Washington probably has a fairly good handle on the outbreak. With caveats: the testing is very concentrated in the Puget Sound region, and in particular some of the more isolated parts of the state in the far southwest and southeast haven't had very many tests.

Here is an even better visualization on a state by state level:

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Explore forecasts of COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospital resource use.

covid19.healthdata.org

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Here is a very interesting and informative video from a FRONT Line clinical care critical care practitioner who actually is a master trainer. Teaching our nation's critical care personnel.

 

[Browneye]

I dunno, I’ve never heard of people not washing their hands. Wash for meals, morning and night, bathroom, and when they’re dirty. Before cooking or handling food.
But I suppose, I’ve seen a few of these people’s cars.

You ever shake someone’s hand and it feels like burning sensation? I guess its just acid perspiration, but it’s still weird.

 

[Handlebars]

My understanding is much of the transmission is via contact, and it involves the hands and fecal matter.

I've heard that the hands are the most common way of introduction. I'd buy into that.
So where's the numbers? Why are scientists silent on the numbers or do they even have numbers or data at all?
"No data" means something to me.


"Most common" only means more than any single other way. It doesn't even mean more than 50%
"Much" is even less informative. Food labels are often very deceptive in that the first ingredient is often assumed to be over 50%, but in reality it could well be 10% of total, when there is a list of ingredients close to the same % , or if the list is long. Also if the first listed ingredient is included within brackets along with others, it can be misleading as to percentages.

It would never be wise to dismiss ingredients in the field of medicine. 85% or 49% could kill and so might 10%. First "ingredient" could potentially be VERY low.

Thats why many are saying Masks arent really going to stop the spread that much.

That brings in 2 questions then...the question of why the authorities voice grave concern that a run on masks will keep medical staff from having them, and the question of why they dismiss saving just a few transmissions, when the spread potential of a few is exponential.

And where's their numbers? "No numbers" means "not science". "Not science" being aggressively pushed means untruthfulness potential is high.

When they talk about it, vis a vis HANDS are they talking about receiving or transmitting or both? Receiving is my bet.
And that is deceptive.

 

[Handlebars]

There is evidence suggesting that the Canadian doctor working for Dr Tedros is doing the Communist Party's bidding regarding their claim of ownership over Taiwan with the doctor refusing to acknowledge even the name of Taiwan or answer a question. @9:25

wiki:

On March 28, 2020 during the worldwide COVID-19 pandemic, Aylward was interviewed in The Pulse, a current affairs programme from Radio Television Hong Kong (RTHK).[6] The interviewer asked about status of Taiwan in the WHO and inquired as to whether it might be re-admitted to the WHO after Taiwan accused Beijing of denying it entry.[7] Aylward ignored the question, then when asked if he was still on the line, claimed that he didn't hear the question. The interviewer offered, "Okay, let me repeat the question, so –," but Aylward interrupted, "No, that's okay. Let's move to another one then". The interviewer repeated the question, but Aylward appeared to terminate the call. When called back, Aylward was asked, "I just want to see if you can comment a bit on how Taiwan has done so far," and he answered, "We have already talked about China".[8][9][10] He then formally ended the interview.[9]

Aylward's interview has been described as emblematic of China's influence over international organizations by Gordon G. Chang.[11] Aylward's biography was removed from the WHO's leadership webpage directly following the interview.[12][13] Taiwan's foreign minister Joseph Wu commented about the interview in a tweet saying the WHO "should set politics aside in dealing with a pandemic" and pointed to the positive coverage about Taiwan's response to the pandemic in global media—"These reports do not mistake us as part of China."[13]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bruce_Aylward#cite_note-:0-13

I wonder why they removed his biography. That bio bears checking out. Prime Minister Jussie expressing such great admiration for basic dictatorship is a crucial part of the sad situation that's happening here now as our medical staff are endangered due to his giveaway of our vital medical supplies.

But Dr Bruce Aylward is wearing a mask as he presents the Communist Party's case. No travel bans. Got that? And masks don't work.
Well, well. Now they don't want you to travel to your cottage. How things have changed. But China is still coming into Toronto daily by jet. That hasn't changed.

WHO: Don't expect travel bans, 'Mother Nature' to beat virus

Countries may gain time in the short-term as they limit travel to fight the new coronavirus pandemic, but the World Health Organization thinks overall that "it doesn't help to restrict movement," a top adviser to the U.N. health agency's chief said Thursday...

kstp.com

Here is the interview

You can clearly see that he represents the WHO position in agreement with the Communist Party of China and refuses to even acknowledge the name of Taiwan, hanging up, refusing the question, calling it China and ending the interview. @19:57

 

[Handlebars]

My understanding is much of the transmission is via contact, and it involves the hands and fecal matter. Thats why many are saying Masks arent really going to stop the spread that much.

Here is a couple of really informative video's on whats happening on the front lines in hospitals, and you might be shocked to learn that the single most dangerous vectors (amplifiers) of the spread are hospitals at the moment here in the US. That was also the situation in Wuhan initially, but they turned things around within about 30 days.

A New Hope


The Right Way to End this

Hey Mike, I thought to look at medical advice or info from BEFORE this threat, that suddenly made officials contradict common sense and previous advice, arrived.

Found this on the Mayo Clinic site:

It's possible to catch the flu or a cold after handling an object an infected person sneezed or coughed on a few moments ago. But personal contact with an infected person — such as a handshake or breathing in droplets from a cough or sneeze — is the most common way these viruses spread.

I'm not buying the "not science" being put out suddenly that masks don't work, for reason a,b, or c.

 

[Browneye]

Orange County current stats - home of 'disneyland':

Population - 3,222,498
Cases - 464
Deaths - 4
Total tested - 5522
Available test kits - 989

Daily new cases is trending down.

How are we going to get to the claimed 50% infection rate?