2026 - Our Rides in Words, Photos, Maps and Videos

[stompandgo]

What does a Super El-Nino winter mean to your area? For us, I hear that it means a mild winter. Our hurricane season is almost over and we've had very little activity other than a few big Nor'easters.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

What does a Super El-Nino winter mean to your area? For us, I hear that it means a mild winter. Our hurricane season is almost over and we've had very little activity other than a few big Nor'easters.

Generally wetter, stormier winters, increased snowpack in the high mountains, higher tides due to Kelvin waves and the thermal expansion of the top of the water column, and supression of the normal coastal upwelling that brings deep nutrients to the surface. The last hurts fish populations and the fishermen and sea birds that depend on them.

However, we often see unexpected effects, and with the magnitude of this El Nino, the meteorologists are predicting even more unpredictability.

This year, SoCal had the compounding factor of an unrelated marine heat wave (in sea surface temperature, not air temperature) already in place when El Nino arrived.

In combination, the first El Nino Kelvin wave and thermal expansion of sea water have already added up to 2 ft to our normal astronomical tides. And as Earth approaches perihelion in earliest January, the astronomical tides will be at their biggest all year. Gulp.

As you've already seen in the news, big storm waves rolling in on top of high tides 2 ft above normal spell big trouble for the California coast. And as we saw during this year's abnormally busy East Pacific hurricane season, we get big waves from Pacific storms nowhere near the California coast.

It's going to be a very interesting winter here in coastal SoCal.

 

[DaveMatthews]

What does a Super El-Nino winter mean to your area? For us, I hear that it means a mild winter. Our hurricane season is almost over and we've had very little activity other than a few big Nor'easters.

Similar prediction of a mild winter for us in B.C.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Similar prediction of a mild winter for us in B.C.

This made me wonder, do El Nino effects on coastal sea level and surface temperatures typically reach you in Vancouver? Short answer: For stronger events like the current one, yes.

Long answer from Gemini AI:

During strong El Niño events, coastally trapped Kelvin waves routinely propagate all the way up the North American West Coast to the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia (around 50°N), and during major events, measurable sea-level and temperature signals can reach as far north as the Gulf of Alaska (around 55°N–60°N).
As these subsurface waves travel poleward from the equator at roughly 150 miles per day, several factors govern how far north they remain coherent:

• California to the Pacific Northwest (32°N–50°N): The wave signal remains strong and well-defined along California, Oregon, Washington, and Vancouver Island, where it temporarily raises local sea levels by 6 to 12 inches, deepens the thermocline, and suppresses cold, nutrient-rich upwelling.
• Gulf of Alaska (55°N–60°N): During "super" El Niños (such as 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16), tide gauges and satellite altimetry detect the poleward-propagating sea-level anomaly wrapping around the Gulf of Alaska before dissipating against complex coastal topography and strong local atmospheric forcing.
• Energy Loss Along the Way: As a coastal Kelvin wave moves into higher latitudes, it gradually weakens due to friction, scattering from underwater canyons and islands (like the Channel Islands or Vancouver Island), and offshore energy radiation as Rossby waves.

Because the wave takes weeks to months to travel from the tropics to high latitudes, the oceanic sea-level rise and warming arrive in British Columbia and Alaska well after they hit Southern California—often compounding winter storm surges and king tides.

I don't believe everything AI says, but this aligns well with other sources I"ve checked.

Next question is for you: Does coastal Vancouver get wave damage during stronger El Nino events?

Most of our big winter swell comes from big Gulf of Alaska storms. These waves attenuate little with distance over open ocean, but Vancouver's a lot closer to the source than we are.

If you get higher sea levels from El Nino, and the Gulf of Alaska gets stormier, that could be a wave erosion problem for Vancouver's west coast. Any idea how that's played out historically?

 

[DaveMatthews]

This made me wonder, do El Nino effects on coastal sea level and surface temperatures typically reach you in Vancouver? Short answer: For stronger events like the current one, yes.

Long answer from Gemini AI:


I don't believe everything AI says, but this aligns well with other sources I"ve checked.

Next question is for you: Does coastal Vancouver get wave damage during stronger El Nino events?

Most of our big winter swell comes from big Gulf of Alaska storms. These waves attenuate little with distance over open ocean, but Vancouver's a lot closer to the source than we are.

If you get higher sea levels from El Nino, and the Gulf of Alaska gets stormier, that could be a wave erosion problem for Vancouver's west coast. Any idea how that's played out historically?

Yes, but as your research indicates, Vancouver Island is a significant buffer indeed. Over time of course beaches around here on the "lower mainland" do need to be refreshed, and sea walls repaired etc. But in my lifetime structures such as the Stanley park sea wall have required little repair and very little "shoring up".
Here's a decent write up...

State of the Beach/State Reports/BC/Beach Erosion

beachapedia.org

 

[stompandgo]

Generally wetter, stormier winters, increased snowpack in the high mountains, higher tides due to Kelvin waves and the thermal expansion of the top of the water column, and supression of the normal coastal upwelling that brings deep nutrients to the surface. The last hurts fish populations and the fishermen and sea birds that depend on them.

Thanks. That's an interesting take on the fish population. Makes sense. We have a different problem here with fish populations. Overfishing of bait fish by huge surface dredges, owned by conglomerates like Omega, that will wipe out a significant part of the baitfish in the Northern Gulf of Maine (NGOM, from the Canadian border to the southeastern tip of Cape Cod) in a week. Then they leave, come back in a few weeks, and wipe them out again.

I asked Grok about the Super El-Nino effect on the weather in New England.

Expected effects on the New England coast​

Strong El Niños typically shift the Pacific jet stream southward and eastward. For the Northeast and New England coast this usually means:

• Milder overall temperatures — Warmer-than-average winters are the most consistent signal. Historical strong El Niño winters (including 1982–83, 1997–98, and 2015–16) were notably milder across New England, often by a few degrees on average. Short cold-air outbreaks can still occur, but prolonged Arctic blasts are less likely.
• Wetter conditions / more precipitation — Higher odds of above-normal precipitation along the East Coast, including coastal New England. This often comes as rain or mixed precipitation rather than pure snow.
• Below-normal snowfall — Coastal and southern New England are favored for less snow than average (some local forecasts put Boston in the 25–30 inch range versus a normal ~49 inches). Interior higher elevations may do somewhat better but are still generally expected to be below normal. More rain/mix events are likely.
• Increased coastal storm / nor’easter activity — A more active storm track along the East Coast raises the odds of nor’easters and coastal storms (some analyses suggest roughly 25–45% more East Coast storm activity). February has historically been a particularly active month for these during strong El Niños. Storms can still produce significant snow when cold air is in place, but the rain/snow line is more often farther north.

Good on less snow near the coast. Bad if any of those Nor-Easters turn into ice storms, which can wreak havoc for a week or more.

Keep us up to date on the activity in your area. Here's wishing for minimal damage.

 

[Chargeride]

Sand coming back in some of the beaches.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Sand coming back in some of the beaches.

Great to see significant amounts of sand coming back to Aliso Beach (red pin above). Have yet to see much sand return down here in North County (roughly from Oceanside south to the "Work" marker at the Del Mar Dog Beach). The blue dot in between marks south Carlsbad.

Fingers crossed that we'll eventually get some sand back as well. Question is, how long before it's washed offshore again?

At 20:15, you get a close beach-level look at the kind of sea cliff armoring also going on here in south Carlsbad. This recent photo shows Carlsbad's frantic effort to save the Coast Highway, which here runs right on the edge of the bluff.

For my money, the excavator's one of the coolest and most versatile pieces of heavy equipment ever invented. The brave operators at work in the video and photo above are true virtuosos on their instrument! Definitely a job for the A team.

I continue to be impressed with the Skid Kids' informal but insightful coverage of the ongoing coastal erosion to our north. Born journalists.

Turns out, ebiking's a great way to keep tabs on our North County beaches. The cars at upper right are parked on the Coast Highway. Just beyond them, the buffer between highway and bluff edge narrows to 1 ft. The excavators in the last photo were ½ mile south of here.

 

[BlackHand]

Thanks. That's an interesting take on the fish population. Makes sense. We have a different problem here with fish populations. Overfishing of bait fish by huge surface dredges, owned by conglomerates like Omega, that will wipe out a significant part of the baitfish in the Northern Gulf of Maine (NGOM, from the Canadian border to the southeastern tip of Cape Cod) in a week. Then they leave, come back in a few weeks, and wipe them out again

....supression of the normal coastal upwelling that brings deep nutrients to the surface. The last hurts fish populations and the fishermen and sea birds that depend on them.

It gets complicated when considering species like salmon that spend part of their lifecycle in freshwater and part in saltwater. I found the blog entry below to be really interesting.

The TLDR version is, bad for OR/WA salmon(and the resident orca population that depend on them), good for Alaskan salmon, and it depends for Cali salmon.

ENSO and Salmon

From the coasts of South America to the Galapagos Islands, the story of ENSO cannot be told without discussing its impact on marine life. But just as ENSO can affect climate patterns thousands of miles away from the equatorial Pacific, ENSO can also affect marine life. And there is no better...

www.climate.gov

 

[Chargeride]

Just watched a video about sea level rise , the absolute melt scenarios
60m rise.
Its obvious if you think about it, but also very complicated.

If the Antarctica melted, the land underneath would mostly go underwater, but then bounce back up a km as the ice weight is removed.

Increasing sea height also spreads it out over a larger area, lots of places would have the sea break over a natural barrier and flood inland lowlands.
This would effect gravity and earth spin, the weight of the extra water would bend the crust, creating deeper ocean beds to absorb some of the rise.

A lot of ice is below the water line and it would just be replaced by the sea.
The sea would retreat from the gravity pull of the lost ice and bulge the middle up.

3 billion people live in areas flooded by ice loss, but it would very slow, another factor is all that extra surface water would cool the planet.

No wonder this stuff needs supercomputers

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Mińsk Mazowiecki Grevet (but private)

Marek has got an excellent idea for route planning: instead of fighting with planning an original route, he now takes proven Komoot recommended ride plans and just edits them to make the ride more interesting; if the ride plan includes a restaurant, it becomes perfect!

Marek and I started from Mińsk Mazowiecki (a city east of Warsaw, not to be confused with Minsk in Belarus) at 10:41 on Saturday 14th November.

Brevet is a non-competitive long distance endurance ride where the riders need to get their carnets stamped on checkpoints en route. In the times of GPS, both navigation and the progress check for each rider can be done electronically. Therefore, brevets lost their importance. (Traditionally, brevet routes were marked with the direction arrows like the one in this photo -- the original ride occurred in April 2026 ). Now, "grevet" is the same as brevet but for gravel cycling.

It was a cold day with some sunshine. There was a strong wind from west, which helped a lot on the outward leg of the ride but was a freezing nuisance after the most distant ride waypoint!

I'm not much familiar with the area east of Warsaw. Now, I can admit the scenery was beautiful, especially as the area was not really flat. Here: a private fishing pond. (Marek had been an avid angler before he got infected with gravel cycling).

In late 19th century, two different villages on the opposite sides of the Vistula changed their name to Jeruzal (from Jerusalem). The inhabitants hoped to attract pilgrims. While that plan seems to have failed, the proper Jeruzal (Mazovia) became famous because of television.

Between 2006 and 2016, a popular comedy TV series "Ranczo" (The Ranch) was being filmed there; the fictional village name was Wilkowyje (Wolf's Howling).

The grocery shop owned by Ms. Krystyna Więcławska was the mandatory scene of each episode in which local winos were sitting on the bench and exchanging "folk wisdom" remarks while being plastered with a very specific drink...

The drink by the name of Mamrot (Mumble) is a very strong simple beer with sour cherry flavour and a sweetener. It can only be described as a "varnish" good for local bums I've read about an American drink by name Malt Liquor; I haven't tried Mamrot yet but feel it must be even more terrible than the U.S. version The price of 3/4 litre bottle is PLN10 (US$2.50); any visitor to Jeruzal must have a photo by the shop and always buys a bottle of Mamrot as a souvenir

As I mentioned earlier, Marek loves visiting a restaurant on any longer ride. Here, the "Pond Ranch" in Jeruzal. We were unlucky: The owner planned frying the fish (trout) only in an hour. We settled on a bowl of nourishing Zhur soup for each, better than nothing!

St. Anthony statue in Kuflew. The saint looks at a very steep straight gravel descent.

We were riding terrain against cold headwind with the hope we could catch the return train in Mińsk; we did, all ideally!

I was lucky to get the connecting train home soon. So I rode to Caffe Italiano in my county city of Pruszków for Pizza Campagnolo tiramisu and a lot of hot black tea!

Ride Map.