Appreciate the mea culpa
and yes, I think ALL equities are a risk in the current environment, the markets hate uncertaintyWith 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?
- Thread starter DDBB
- Start date
and yes, I think ALL equities are a risk in the current environment, the markets hate uncertaintyHow long you plan on staying out?
I usually buy, then double down with another drop. Actually trippled down once. With an average buy of 98 in (2020?) sold last year ~ 368. Bought back in a few weeks ago low 300s, considering doubling down when I get home next week (missed low 270s)
I doubled down on several stocks about 5 years ago. That has worked out well, yeah even thought of tripling down too. I'm staying out of this market with a pretty big chunk for as long as this uncertainty on trade policy persists. If the trade war continues, I can see much lower equity pricing going forward... Of course, I could be wrong.. LOL.. I've been wrong before.
indianajo
Well-Known Member
There will be a lot of house siding sold in LA the next year. Made in USA, whereever the trees come from they have to replace those houses. Lots of toilets, sinks, refrigerators, ranges, sold. Steel, yeah they may not sell as much to car companies this year. Appliance steel sales will be up. Toothpaste, dish soap will muddle along about the same and imports have nothing to do with it. Banks, houses will sell, they will make loans. Maybe not as many car loans as last year. Airplane parts, as long as they fly they need those valves & actuators. Yeah, the companies that build the planes have booms & busts. I don't own that. Retail, I see a tough year. Maybe buy retail next year after they have come up with a plan. I own a company that makes steel highway parts. Rebuilding highways does not have a boom or bust cycle. There are made in USA requirements on highway parts. I do try to diversify, not too much in any particular sector. Who would have thought Ford would have no profits in 2020-21? I own an India fund, their sales always go up but the rupee keeps falling. Now one party is trying to make it a dictatorship. May be time to dump that fund. I own a Taiwanese semiconductor company, also a US one. Both making wads of money, both building factories various places. Taiwan probably will not be attacked as long as ***** needs those chips for their products.
Read the WSJ if you can afford it. I hate Murdoch too much to participate anymore. I do read it at the library some times.
Last edited:
I think shorting the SP500 is a good plan right now , that is unless trump fires Jerome Powell. If that happens, rates plummet, stock market rises and so does inflation. Everyone is happy until the big bust, just like 2008. Unfortunately, I don't have the nerve to short anything!
I do think we've ventured pretty far off topic though. I've had my eye on an ebike upgrade even though I just bought another one about a year ago. A new ebike purchase will not sit well with the wife but would bring me much joy. Actually looking at a Frey bike (not cheap) Communicating with the company, they say they have the model I want in a USA warehouse, ready to ship so I'm assuming it's not subject to import tariffs. That doesn't mean it's immune from a price increase though. Not so sure three ebikes is a good plan but that's how much I enjoy them.
jabberwocky
Well-Known Member
To the original point of this thread, really the only question is how much more expensive everything bike will get, and how bad the industry will get hurt. Too many raw, intermediate and final products come from overseas and will increase in price, and profit margins just aren't there for most companies to absorb all of it. At the moment I think a lot of companies are trying to hold the line and hoping that someone will blink and sanity will return but I just don't see it happening. Upside is a lot of companies were already sitting on inventory (they wouldn't have thought of that as an upside 4 months ago, but hey, here we are). Stuff that was in the US already didn't have to eat the tariffs. Once thats sold through though...
Will it kill the bike market? Nah, the high end will probably be ok; its not like people buying $5000+ ebikes are going to suddenly not be able to buy a $6000 ebike. But the low end and mid range (where buyers are much more price conscious) will definitely take a beating. And that market wasn't in the best shape starting 2025. Raising prices won't help an industry already facing weak demand.
Will it kill the bike market? Nah, the high end will probably be ok; its not like people buying $5000+ ebikes are going to suddenly not be able to buy a $6000 ebike. But the low end and mid range (where buyers are much more price conscious) will definitely take a beating. And that market wasn't in the best shape starting 2025. Raising prices won't help an industry already facing weak demand.
jabberwocky
Well-Known Member
Who knows, maybe one of the big 3 will buy enough trump/melania crypto to secure a tariff exception for bike stuff.
Won't it just create more @PedalUma 's?
We've got (2) Raleigh Hybrids in excellent condition that probably increased in value. We typically donate our unused toys though.
jabberwocky
Well-Known Member
DIYers? I think like 99.9% of those parts come from China. Is there anyone making motors/controllers for DIY kits literally anywhere else on the planet?
PedalUma
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Petaluma, CA
I have a Raleigh Hybird in my shop today from beautiful Point Reyes as it falls into the sea. The battery died. But thankfully it was external. So, I installed a new external battery that looks great. It works and the matching black mountain water bottle cage to hold it arrives today. I have has a couple of orders this week for high quality parts and they are still a good value. Manufacturers must be eating some of the costs to keep up their production scale. It is true, this stuff is just not made here and never will be.
Professional converters. I don't have the numbers, but I thought @PedalUma indicated the cost of the parts from China is not a high % of the professionally converted ebike he sells.
Gionnirocket
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Y. O.
K
The prices of all, including diy and what was affordable will be going up as the less than $800 exemption will be gone as well.... So what's your point?
PedalUma
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Petaluma, CA
@Romers, for an example, this week someone in the North contacted me outside of EBR to buy a super nice mid-drive with my support in English and with the factory supporting me. The quote came in at a few hundred delivered to his workplace for a daytime signature from UPS. So, with the majority of the value being a really great starter bike that a person already owns, he or she, can get a better overall bike that looks clean for less than going to a bike shop and buying a nice new mid-drive. The motor he chose weighs 3.9 Kg and quietly produces 90Nm, with an end user fully customizable system, through the small color display. That is the same pull as a Vado 5 which is on sale for $4500.
Brian-s
Active Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Kent ohio
I like to remind a couple of evangelical people I know whenever they comment about trump winning the majority, that a certain guy 2000 years ago had a majority say he should be crucified. Majorities don't always know what's best
Never said prices wouldn't go up. Got no idea on cost of components at wholesale or selling price of one of @PedalUma 's bikes. If he sells one he described as "better than a $4500 Vado" for $3000 and the wholesale price of Chinese components changes from $500 to $1000, the bike goes from $3000 to $3500. Big deal. Point is, a doubling in wholesale price of some components doesn't double the cost of a finished product. I was talking professional converted (@PedalUma ) not a DIYer.
If the goal for a professional ebike builder is to sell an ebike at a low cost, I'd consider a different business model; quality, custom built products should sell at a premium.
jabberwocky
Well-Known Member
Professional converters and DIYers are basically buying the same stuff. I would assume PedalUma is much more competent at part selection and execution than, say, I would be, but I don't think hes buying anything that your average DIYer can't get.
Its also worth noting that both DIY and pro converter require a supply of non-electric bikes to convert, which will also be going up in price along with the electrical components.
Stefan Mikes
Gravel e-biker
- Region
- Europe
- City
- Mazovia, PL
Let them DIYe 
40 miles into a 70 mile ride on a production e-bike.
40 miles into a 70 mile ride on a production e-bike.
Correct, perhaps the professional is buying at a quantity discount though. Bottom line, a professional is probably not buying their bikes on the used market; would not surprise me if they had a relationship with several bike shops to take used inventory of their hands. Locally, a dealer will take a trade in, but usually they donate them a few times a year because people don't go to shops to get used. Their labor, which hopefully is a fairly high % of the final sale price of the bike, is not tariffed.
It all depends on their business model.
I do not disagree it will suck for DIYers.
Last edited:
PedalUma
Well-Known Member
- Region
- USA
- City
- Petaluma, CA
This country was founded on rejecting tariffs in 1773 with the Boston Tea Party. Already manufactures of bikes are placing tariff sur charges. It will reflect down market to good existing bike values. This inflation will happen to everything from hats to your shoes. Domestic producers of anything can then raise prices to match. The gravel bike from England just had its black rims painted silver to match the rest at the factory and the frame gets painted early next week in Stratford-upon-Avon before it is assembled and sent to me for custom conversion. It will be the owner's last bike. Here is an hour-long film on the history of bikes and a person creating a custom final bike.
Similar threads
