World War III

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I think the scary part is not that Putin might be insane or terminally ill. It is that he is very likely getting bad information. If we get into a tit-for-tat escalation cycle with someone who is badly informed we are likely just as dead as if he is irrational.

It is likely that many of the Rushka nukes do not work, but even if only 2% of them work that would translate into a million dead Americans. So approximately as many as Trump killed through neglect and cluelessness.
 
If we make the most generous assumptions, Ukraine at this point has received fewer than 200 advanced artillery pieces. Most of them are M777 or variants, and only a handful of the fancy Ceasar, Pz 2000, or HIMARS systems have been received. It is doubtful that what they have received is sufficient to be decisive or even do much more than give the Rushka another bloody nose.

In artillery shells itself it is even more stark. The Rushka are firing around 60_000 artillery shells per day. Ukraine has received only a few hundred thousand shells so far. Which leads to a couple of questions:
  1. The Orcs have fired 5 or 6 million shells over the course of this war. How many do they have left?
  2. Artillery barrels lose accuracy after firing many shots and need to be re-bored. At that rate of fire it is likely many Rushka artillery pieces are losing accuracy and need to be re-bored. Does the Rushka have a large stockpile of spare barrels they can use on their 2000 artillery pieces?
  3. Failing that, what is the Rushka industrial capacity to rebore those barrels and how long will that take?
 
I think the scary part is not that Putin might be insane or terminally ill. It is that he is very likely getting bad information. If we get into a tit-for-tat escalation cycle with someone who is badly informed we are likely just as dead as if he is irrational.

It is likely that many of the Rushka nukes do not work, but even if only 2% of them work that would translate into a million dead Americans. So approximately as many as Trump killed through neglect and cluelessness.
Well we have a president who is unable to be informed about anything. That is scary.
 
If we make the most generous assumptions, Ukraine at this point has received fewer than 200 advanced artillery pieces. Most of them are M777 or variants, and only a handful of the fancy Ceasar, Pz 2000, or HIMARS systems have been received. It is doubtful that what they have received is sufficient to be decisive or even do much more than give the Rushka another bloody nose.

In artillery shells itself it is even more stark. The Rushka are firing around 60_000 artillery shells per day. Ukraine has received only a few hundred thousand shells so far. Which leads to a couple of questions:
  1. The Orcs have fired 5 or 6 million shells over the course of this war. How many do they have left?
  2. Artillery barrels lose accuracy after firing many shots and need to be re-bored. At that rate of fire it is likely many Rushka artillery pieces are losing accuracy and need to be re-bored. Does the Rushka have a large stockpile of spare barrels they can use on their 2000 artillery pieces?
  3. Failing that, what is the Rushka industrial capacity to rebore those barrels and how long will that take?
Ukraine was shelling their own people for eight years in the DPR.
 
The Daily Beast feast for meatballs is not limited to the war coverage.
I think the scary part is not that Putin might be insane or terminally ill.
There is no question that Biden is far into dementia.
Even just his marionette-motion legs where the knees lift and plop down without swinging forward much for progress, that is a strong physical sign. But you look at someone showing strength and speaking flawlessly in several languages with strategic references to MarkTwain and such...and you believe stories from The Daily Beast.
That is the unbelievable part.
 
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There is no question that Biden is far into dementia.
Even just his marionette-motion legs where the knees lift and plop down without swinging forward much for progress, that is a strong physical sign. But you look at someone showing strength and speaking flawlessly in several languages with strategic references to MarkTwain and such...and you believe stories from The Daily Beast.
That is the unbelievable part.

ALSO.. note that he always touches his face just before the brain malfunctions...
 
Get your regime change right here! Step right up! (But not in Russia).
yeah, but it's a just a promise to quit when a replacement is decided upon. and the rest of his party are just as bad or worse than him. Still it's good to send a message that the public wants them to stop bringing down their own nations.
 
yeah, but it's a just a promise to quit when a replacement is decided upon. and the rest of his party are just as bad or worse than him. Still it's good to send a message that the public wants them to stop bringing down their own nations.
Could be brownshirts ready to swoop in. These socialists are a devious lot......
 
The Russians‘ industrial capacity is likely less than previous estimates. The accuracy of their shelling is of little concern to them as they throw more and more untrained Zeks en masse into the meat grinder hoping to wear down Ukrainians. Russian tactics remain unchanged from the siege of St. Petersburg. I hope the US will help the Ukraine with targeting intelligence.
Putin seems immune to the complaints of those around him and does rely on yes-men. I also believe as an intelligence agent he is aware of what’s happening.
 
The Russians‘ industrial capacity is likely less than previous estimates. The accuracy of their shelling is of little concern to them as they throw more and more untrained Zeks en masse into the meat grinder hoping to wear down Ukrainians. Russian tactics remain unchanged from the siege of St. Petersburg. I hope the US will help the Ukraine with targeting intelligence.
Putin seems immune to the complaints of those around him and does rely on yes-men. I also believe as an intelligence agent he is aware of what’s happening.
Nobody is buying your patently false drivel.
 
The Russians‘ industrial capacity is likely less than previous estimates. The accuracy of their shelling is of little concern to them as they throw more and more untrained Zeks en masse into the meat grinder hoping to wear down Ukrainians. Russian tactics remain unchanged from the siege of St. Petersburg. I hope the US will help the Ukraine with targeting intelligence.
Putin seems immune to the complaints of those around him and does rely on yes-men. I also believe as an intelligence agent he is aware of what’s happening.
I don't know. If their accuracy with decent barrels is on the order of 200-300m, and with shot out barrels that goes up to maybe 1000m, that will make it difficult for them to achieve any kind of concentration of fire and will require them to expend even more ammunition, time, and barrels in order to take any terrain at all. It also would make counter-battery and interdiction fire basically impossible. So it kind of depends on what they have in mind, if anything.
 
"Medvedev suggested the United States hasn’t been held accountable for several bloody encounters and territorial grabs itself, and that it would do well to not look at Russia before examining its own history.
“The entire U.S. history since the times of subjugation of the native Indian population represents a series of bloody wars,”
Speaking as a third Native American, being conquered by the US was the best of fates. I like it here, now. The tribal wars endemic to pre-European culture, were nothing but barbarism. They never ended. The secret to our survival was moving somewhere the Europeans couldn't live and didn't want. West Virginia mountains are still uninhabited. Only the valleys are peopled by beefy tall Europeans (& blacks).I'm built for running after wounded deer on wet rocks. The Shawnee didn't attack us much, we didn't have anything to steal, only short weak women. Grandfather was willing to dig low coal, crawling 12 hour days, until he bought his acre of respite in the valley. Paid taxes, too. I met another native survivor at the Lewis & Clark bicentennial party. Her family lived in the swamps of Ohio, until her great Grandad took a job repairing track for a railroad during WWI when labor was short.
Putin may be terminally ill. He may not care if the world survives in 5 years or not. His starvation of 40000000 poor people by withholding grain (even Russian) vegetable oils & fertilizer shows a complete lack of responsibility.
Fascinating perspective, thanks for this. The European conquest of North America was an atrocity, but I do not think there is moral equivalency between what happened in the 18th and 19th century here and what the Russians are doing today. I think it's bizarre to retroactively impose 21st century values, though academic liberals seem to make this mistake repeatedly.

A more fair comparison would be the Iraq war and late 20th century oil wars, but these were waged by "Republicans"-- e.g., fascists, I don't make any distinction between MAGA and neocons, and the oil wars were broadly unpopular here. The protests against the Iraq war dwarfed Vietnam war protests in size. Anyway, the fact that those wars were immoral doesn't make the Russian invasion acceptable, or mean that the US should step politely out of the way, so Medvedev's line of thinking doesn't make any sense.
Could be brownshirts ready to swoop in. These socialists are a devious lot......
Why do you care? You seem to have already defected, so you'll be moving to Russia soon, and you won't have to worry about any of this, right?
The Daily Beast feast for meatballs is not limited to the war coverage.

There is no question that Biden is far into dementia.
Even just his marionette-motion legs where the knees lift and plop down without swinging forward much for progress, that is a strong physical sign. But you look at someone showing strength and speaking flawlessly in several languages with strategic references to MarkTwain and such...and you believe stories from The Daily Beast.
That is the unbelievable part.
I don't diagnose people I'm not treating, but Biden's occasional stumbling for words (anomia) is consistent with normative age-related cognitive decline for a 79-year-old. He's probably right about Stage 2, I don't see any evidence he's at Stage 3, which is MCI.

In order to make his presentation look weird, you have to cherry-pick clips. Video editors often do this for fun-- and you could do the same thing for any public figure with selective editing.

Trump's poverty of vocabulary and word repetition -- e.g. "beautiful" "the greatest ever" "the world has ever seen" etc. -- suggests far more serious deficits. It's not just forgetting or flubbing a word or phrase, or poor vocabulary.

“People with Alzheimer’s rely more and more on these fixed phrases and produce fewer novel sentences,” says psycholinguist Vitor Zimmerer, adding that their ability to use words in a creative context is also diminished. “Take the word know, for example – people with Alzheimer’s will use it more often in formulaic sentences, such as “I don’t know,” and this is something we can detect quite early on with the right tools.”


yeah, but it's a just a promise to quit when a replacement is decided upon. and the rest of his party are just as bad or worse than him. Still it's good to send a message that the public wants them to stop bringing down their own nations.
I didn't realize that, Handle-- he has not actually stepped down, he probably will, but we should wait until the ink is dry-- so thanks for that, fair point. But it will be a brighter day if/when he's gone. You probably disagree, but I thought Corbyn was a pretty interesting candidate. At one point I did a pretty deep dive into the antisemitic allegations against him-- didn't seem like there was a lot there.

I don't know. If their accuracy with decent barrels is on the order of 200-300m, and with shot out barrels that goes up to maybe 1000m, that will make it difficult for them to achieve any kind of concentration of fire and will require them to expend even more ammunition, time, and barrels in order to take any terrain at all. It also would make counter-battery and interdiction fire basically impossible. So it kind of depends on what they have in mind, if anything.
Very interesting, Mr. C. I had not been considering the wear and tear on ordnance. Just like bikes, cars and guitar amps-- using them means you're gradually destroying them. When I think of Russian weapons, I think of the Makarov, which is nearly indestructible-- had no idea artillery had this kind of problem over time.
 
Fascinating perspective, thanks for this. The European conquest of North America was an atrocity, but I do not think there is moral equivalency between what happened in the 18th and 19th century here and what the Russians are doing today. I think it's bizarre to retroactively impose 21st century values, though academic liberals seem to make this mistake repeatedly.

A more fair comparison would be the Iraq war and late 20th century oil wars, but these were waged by "Republicans"-- e.g., fascists, I don't make any distinction between MAGA and neocons, and the oil wars were broadly unpopular here. The protests against the Iraq war dwarfed Vietnam war protests in size. Anyway, the fact that those wars were immoral doesn't make the Russian invasion acceptable, or mean that the US should step politely out of the way, so Medvedev's line of thinking doesn't make any sense.

Why do you care? You seem to have already defected, so you'll be moving to Russia soon, and you won't have to worry about any of this, right?

I don't diagnose people I'm not treating, but Biden's occasional stumbling for words (anomia) is consistent with normative age-related cognitive decline for a 79-year-old. He's probably right about Stage 2, I don't see any evidence he's at Stage 3, which is MCI.

In order to make his presentation look weird, you have to cherry-pick clips. Video editors often do this for fun-- and you could do the same thing for any public figure with selective editing.

Trump's poverty of vocabulary and word repetition -- e.g. "beautiful" "the greatest ever" "the world has ever seen" etc. -- suggests far more serious deficits. It's not just forgetting or flubbing a word or phrase, or poor vocabulary.

“People with Alzheimer’s rely more and more on these fixed phrases and produce fewer novel sentences,” says psycholinguist Vitor Zimmerer, adding that their ability to use words in a creative context is also diminished. “Take the word know, for example – people with Alzheimer’s will use it more often in formulaic sentences, such as “I don’t know,” and this is something we can detect quite early on with the right tools.”



I didn't realize that, Handle-- he has not actually stepped down, he probably will, but we should wait until the ink is dry-- so thanks for that, fair point. But it will be a brighter day if/when he's gone. You probably disagree, but I thought Corbyn was a pretty interesting candidate. At one point I did a pretty deep dive into the antisemitic allegations against him-- didn't seem like there was a lot there.


Very interesting, Mr. C. I had not been considering the wear and tear on ordnance. Just like bikes, cars and guitar amps-- using them means you're gradually destroying them. When I think of Russian weapons, I think of the Makarov, which is nearly indestructible-- had no idea artillery had this kind of problem over time.
Windy post there Cat. defending the indefensible is a full time job.
 
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Anyway, the fact that those wars were immoral doesn't make the Russian invasion acceptable, or mean that the US should step politely out of the way, so Medvedev's line of thinking doesn't make any sense.
That's because you are imposing your thought process on it instead of taking a plain read of it. Where did he argue that US should step out of the way because those wars were immoral?



I don't diagnose people I'm not treating, but Biden's occasional stumbling for words (anomia)

Anomia isn't even close to what Biden exhibits. Watch the video.



“People with Alzheimer’s"
I never called it Alzheimers. He's got dementia.
 
... Biden's occasional stumbling for words (anomia) is consistent with normative age-related cognitive decline for a 79-year-old. He's probably right about Stage 2
I mis-spoke in not agreeing that he's showing anomia. He's showing that very often, when he can't say where he is or who the person he's referring to is, or remember what he's trying to say, or what the words are .
You know THE THING!!! Or President ... "My Boss"
 
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