With Scorpions Almost Ready... What Will Tora Work On Next?

[Asher]

Despite what the ebike hype says, I don't think ebikes are changing that dramatically over time, and the possibilities in the short term (within 2 years) are pretty limited.

So what do you think Tora will do next?

I would bet on something moped-like. Tora has never done a mid-drive bike and doesn't seem interested in it; folding bikes are kind of niche and potentially fragile, and it seems like Tora likes doing his own frames but that's a stretch/challenge with a folder. I imagine there's a reason he stopped doing cargo bikes. A full suspension ebike is also plausible, since he sort of did one already with the Scorpion.

But I'm not wedded to any answer, just curious, especially as a bellwether of the industry.

 

[Explorer-1]

An alternative list

1. Fixing his existing models
2. Stocking up on parts
3. Reducing the cost of the 52v 19Ah battery
4. A proper rear fender for his fat-tire bikes
5. Marketing

 

[Asher]

Juiced already had the U500.

Despite the 48V 32Ah battery, it never got popular.

I don't know why?

I don't know but each year Juiced's bikes get less and less utilitarian. From cargo bikes to commuters to fat tire to vestigial pedal mopeds. I think a totally pedal-free moped with an 'off-road only' throttle to 28-30 mph is a natural next step, though state laws complicate that, pedals are required in CA and possibly elsewhere.

An alternative list

1. Fixing his existing models
2. Stocking up on parts
3. Reducing the cost of the 52v 19Ah battery
4. A proper rear fender for his fat-tire bikes
5. Marketing

Ha agreed, if it were a wish list mine would look very different from the poll.

And yeah, Juiced battery prices look pretty ridiculous vs say, Ride1Up. Once customers look at spare battery prices when making ebike purchases, prices may come down.

 

[Jsaint]

I think full suspension is likely if you simply stick to a new design but the real innovation at this point is new battery technology.
Graphene, Sodium-ion, Supercapacitors, and Solid-state all pretty much ready if widely adopted and made in high enough volume to be priced reasonably.
Anyhow, here is an article with links to read up on popular innovations we might get soon. https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets...in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

Personally I'm dreaming of instant charging and longer life.

 

[TMH]

I don't want to give Tora any more ideas until he completes the HyperScorpions - We have one on pre-order for my wife! Originally for May delivery, now July, and hope it doesn't slip further.

Tora's/Juiced's corporate mantra centers around 'the micro-mobility revolution'. You maybe wouldn't know that based on the bikes they currently produce (scaled more towards the 'fun' side of e-bikes), but they have to make money to achieve their ultimate goals, and fun sells.

I don't see them making any type of superbike to compete with the likes of the new Watt Wagon of FLX Blade.

But I definitely could see them making an electric moped - not too far a stretch from the Scrambler/Scorpion bikes which they now have some experience with. And an electric moped (even one without pedals) would not be too much of a legality challenge since there are already electric scooters available (legal on streets with posted speed limits of up to 35 mph), even in draconian states like the People's Republik of Kommifornia. An electric moped could be lighter and more approachable as compared to existing electric scooters, and Juiced could give it some pretty good range with their big batteries.

But I also voted for a full suspension bike in the poll, and this is maybe the most likely next product. We are seeing a growing popularity of a fast, full suspension, commuting and light XC bikes (a'la Frey CC, new/upgraded Bulls Iconic EVO TR1 Speed) in the market now. These seem to differ from the fast trekking bikes not only in having full suspension but also in having wider tires for a more comfortable ride on bad roads, and some light fire road capabilities. Fast, effective and comfortable for the weekly commute (micro-mobility) and able to have some different kinds of fun on the weekend.

With Juiced's existing high capacity battery focus and their ability to bring a lower cost alternative into the U.S. market, I see them being able to effectively compete against the existing Frey, Bulls and other similar models.

 

[Asher]

I think the trend bikes for 2020 are stealthy ebikes and mini-mopeds, and Juiced is clearly ignoring the former and embracing the latter.

I'm hoping that the huge boom in ebike sales tilts interest back towards utility models like the CCS.

I've mostly lost interest in Juiced as a brand. Existing models need to be re-specced, the spare batteries are overpriced, QC issues potentially, chronic stockouts of parts... And all of those have been going on for 1+ years. Seems like they need a COO or something to tighten things up while letting Tora do his thing. Maybe hire a chief design/product officer as well.

Ride1Up hasn't caught up to Juiced in some ways, but it's on a great trajectory.

 

[TMH]

...Ride1Up hasn't caught up to Juiced in some ways, but it's on a great trajectory.

Agreed - will be fun to watch what they come up with over the next couple of years. Their bread-and-butter bikes are essentially done and hopefully with the income from those they can get into some more new and fun stuff. Generally a really good time to be into e-bikes.

 

[Asher]

Agreed - will be fun to watch what they come up with over the next couple of years. Their bread-and-butter bikes are essentially done and hopefully with the income from those they can get into some more new and fun stuff. Generally a really good time to be into e-bikes.

I'm hoping that especially with the pandemic boosting interest in biking for transport, class 3 commuters will get more interest. Since day 1 of looking at ebikes (early 2018) it's been obvious to me class 3 is the real solution for e-bikes as transport in the US, but most ebikes are sold as toys. It's nuts to me that there's only two makers at this price point and category, but tons of fatbike and scrambler clones. For hub drives, at least.

 

[Asher]

Looks like Tora has wrapped up the Hyper Scorpion, so he'll soon be on to something else...

There's still August preorders for the CCS, so I wouldn't expect anything new there.

I think a pedal less moped is the next natural step. He can improve the fit and cut some weight without even changing the frame much, and sell it as a new and improved Scorpion. Put a 20 mph speed limit on with an 'off road' unlimited option. Uses the Hyper Scorpion motor only. Call it a Cobra. Or a Viper. Announce something by late fall 2020.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

I keep wondering if he will ever circle back around to the ODK. There's a steady market for cargo bikes, and I think it will grow as ICE vehicles become less welcome in urban areas. The ODK had a solid reputation for distance and reliability.

 

[Asher]

I keep wondering if he will ever circle back around to the ODK. There's a steady market for cargo bikes, and I think it will grow as ICE vehicles become less welcome in urban areas. The ODK had a solid reputation for distance and reliability.

I think no, not any time soon, for a couple reasons:
1. Product choices seem driven by what excites Tora, and while that's not a bad thing per se, since it's worked out well for him, he doesn't show much interest in utility applications. Each bike model he makes has less utility than the last.

2. Cargo bikes are growing in commercial use but mostly abroad where Juiced has no presence

3. Juiced QC is lacking and presumably fleet managers would care about that much more than budget customers.

4. I don't have proof for this but cargo bikes strike me as one of those customer segments that has an annoyingly vocal set of boosters that aren't actually that numerous. I worked at a product company of sorts where they had one such product that they mothballed due to low adoption, but the people that did use it were very loud about it. I like the idea of cargo bikes, I just think a lot of their boosters are solipsists who think everyone else wants the same thing. Cargo bikes aren't even that popular in the Netherlands, they're more of a Danish thing. But fleet use is increasing.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

I think you read Tora pretty well. On the other hand, he's no slouch at reading the market, and I think the market for urban cyclists is going to boom. Maybe not in the cargo bike market, but perhaps. Here's an interesting article on city biking and the pandemic. Kinda supports my guess.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

@Asher in the latest update video, Tora unveils an accessory that replaces the pedals with foot pegs on the Hyper Scorpion. So there you go, you called it: it's a moped now. Not that it has to be. Pedals will still be an option. I'd like to see stats some day on how many he sells with the pedal-less version vs. pedals.

I think it would have to be registered and tagged here in NC -- the law for ebikes specify that they have pedals capable of providing locomotion, or words to that effect.

 

[Asher]

I think you read Tora pretty well. On the other hand, he's no slouch at reading the market, and I think the market for urban cyclists is going to boom. Maybe not in the cargo bike market, but perhaps. Here's an interesting article on city biking and the pandemic. Kinda supports my guess.

I agree that the future for cycling is bright in Europe, for a few simple reasons - public transportation use was high pre pandemic, car ownership rates are lower, and commutes are often shorter, distance-wise. None of those really hold up in the US outside of NYC and a couple other places. So it's hard to say whether the current boom will stick, in the US, while I'm pretty certain it will in Europe. Not saying it won't in the US, there's just a lot more uncertainty here.

The ebike market has plenty of niches anyhow. While the purely recreational varieties bore me, I don't deny you can make money going after them.

Tora also has a new motor to play with, and it seems most suited for mopeds. Thanks about the pegs note. Once you have pegs, you might as well eliminate the chain, put ski-like footrests further forward (so it's comfortable for tall people).

You're right about NC but it seems like requiring pedals on Class 2 is increasingly the exception. Given how Tora has been happy to produce legally grey ebikes in the past I have no doubt he'd continue to do so. Brand it as a Class 2 and/or a moped with the registration requirements incumbent upon users. He could cap the speed at 39 (!) mph, the speed limit for mopeds in Iowa.

Also the guys behind Onyx bikes never got in trouble despite flagrantly selling 40+ mph motorbikes (I think these require a custom vehicle license that is hard to get in many states, like CA).

 

[Asher]

The cargo accessories he showed in the video look pretty cool.

I've been a little harsh on the mopeds, it's just that 1) his commuter ebikes are stagnating yet have a lot of advantages over a moped for many people and 2) I'm concerned that the weight, suspension and throttle setup of the mopeds will lead to riders menacing cyclists. It's not really a problem in China because they seem to have these wide 8+ foot lanes for both bikes and mopeds.

I rode in Amsterdam before they banned mopeds, and they were incredibly annoying in bike lanes. Partly because they were loud and smelled (ICE) and these won't, but also because riders just rode with a sense of impunity, as if *you* would get out of *their* way whereas among cyclists it's usually a two way negotiation of sorts. And those mopeds only went 15 mph, while these will do 20-30.

Also all the ebikes are getting restocked in July-August, by when he'll have started work a new vehicle in earnest.

 

[Bruce Arnold]

Yeah, I'd like to get that cargo basket accessory. I will be using my Scorpion for commuting, groceries, etc., and it looks like just the thing.

On Tora's blog, he says they've shipped the last of the Indiegogo orders, and hope to ship all current Scorpion orders in the next two weeks. I've been telling myself "late July" because, well, you know. But given a shipping time of one week from San Diego (if it's still like when I got my CCS), then maybe around the 4th of July? We'll see....

 

[Southern Saratoga Guy]

Yeah, I'd like to get that cargo basket accessory. I will be using my Scorpion for commuting, groceries, etc., and it looks like just the thing.

On Tora's blog, he says they've shipped the last of the Indiegogo orders, and hope to ship all current Scorpion orders in the next two weeks. I've been telling myself "late July" because, well, you know. But given a shipping time of one week from San Diego (if it's still like when I got my CCS), then maybe around the 4th of July? We'll see....

I have also ordered a Scorpion (regular not Hyper) and that cargo area with a suitable bag looks interesting. Currently doing some food runs using a backpack but a nice cargo bag (maybe insulated) would be ideal.

but also because riders just rode with a sense of impunity, as if *you* would get out of *their* way whereas among cyclists it's usually a two way negotiation of sorts.

I think that judging what will happen based on the shape of an ebike is potentially pre-judging the rider. I have both a commuter style 26" ebike and soon, one of these Scorpions; I don't expect my rider etiquette nor safe riding habits will differ between them when I ride each bike.

 

[xerxez]

Next: A full suspension hyper-scrambler. That's my guess. I hope i'm wrong. Cuz, if he makes it, I'll buy it.

 

[TMH]

Next: A full suspension hyper-scrambler. That's my guess. I hope i'm wrong. Cuz, if he makes it, I'll buy it.

Well, I don't think that you have to worry about that too much. Since they are delivering their full suspension model as the Scorpion/HyperScorpion I don't believe they are going to go back and totally revise the Scrambler frame to provide a full suspension model. They could have chosen to do that (as Super73 did), but instead they chose to release a full suspension 'moped-like' bike instead of an 'adventure' style bike.

Looking at the various available racks and bags they are making/developing for the Scorpion family (along with the street-worthy features like motorcycle style mirrors, lights, turn signals, horn, etc.), the S/HS seems to be harkoning back to Juiced's roots (ODK U500 cargo bike), and forwarding the company's 'micro-mobility revolution' intent.

I think that the Scramblers were maybe seen as something fun, and possibly as a development platform for future bikes (e.g.: Scorpion), but not bikes which would sell in really high volume or change the world, as Tora wants. With the COVID 'new normal' and the capabilities of the Scorpion/HyperScorpion, this new bike could sell in fantastic numbers for delivery services. If Juiced's own offerings for racks, insulated bags, etc. are good, the bike will sell in even higher numbers, potentially to the point where the aftermarket may start making accessories for it.

 

[Asher]

Next: A full suspension hyper-scrambler. That's my guess. I hope i'm wrong. Cuz, if he makes it, I'll buy it.

Uh isn't that the Scorpion?

@TMH, while changing the world may have been Tora's explicit focus early on, I think you're more wishing it were still so, than it actually is. Juiced's new offerings have consistently gotten less utilitarian, heavier, more recreational, less 'motile' over time. Commuter bike to fatbike to minibike to heavier minibike. I think he found a niche among enthusiasts and kept feeding them more of what they wanted.

The cargo capabilities of the scorpion seem pretty grafted on. Not that they're badly done, just that it was another market he could serve with minor modification. And not an intent to especially serve utility/çargo uses (though hot food delivery in general is pretty dumb and inefficient to begiñ with).