With 125% tariffs, will the e-bike market die?

[jabberwocky]

I've been waiting to see how a kickstarter I backed would handle the tariffs (Routewerks big handlebar bag, FWIW). They updated today basically saying "we are almost done production in China, and just don't think the tariffs will last so we are warehousing them in HK and waiting things out". They are betting that within a few months tariffs will come back down so it makes more sense to rent storage and wait. I'm not convinced it will, but I would also guess that eating 125% of tariff isn't doable and passing it on to the consumer would also be untenable. So just sticking it in storage and rolling the dice on things being better in the future is, I guess, the least bad option.

 

[PedalUma]

The more I consider, the more I am convinced that people such as heartland Walmart shoppers will rebel as soon as they need to buy back to school shoes. Maybe sooner. CEOs and Wall Street won't stand for it and will also rebel.

 

[Roamers]

Maybe sooner. CEOs and Wall Street won't stand for it and will also rebel

Have CEOs and Wall street ever really cared about things like this? It universally applies to all importers; will soon be the new "normal". Prices go up, life goes on.

 

[jabberwocky]

Have CEOs and Wall street ever really cared about things like this? It universally applies to all importers; will soon be the new "normal". Prices go up, life goes on.

There are some pretty hard limits to how much prices can go up though before companies feel pain. People don't have infinite money to buy stuff; the more prices go up, the less people will buy.

Its also the sort of thing someone says when they can afford large increases in their living expenses. Which is great for you, but a huge amount of the country can't.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Boeing will need to file for Chapter 11 with the current tariffs.

 

[Roamers]

People don't have infinite money to buy stuff; the more prices go up, the less people will buy.

I hope the tariffs actually reduce the spending (overall) of those that it makes a difference to. People buy too much Chinese crap they can truly do without.

 

[PedalUma]

First it will be felt by the people who buy groceries at the Dollar Store and work at similar places. But shareholders or those with 401k retirement accounts, and instructional investors will all also revolt. Mr. T. cannot have higher prices, lower employment, and lower interest rates. It does not work that way. Places where dictators set monetary policy, fail.

 

[Roamers]

But shareholders or those with 401k retirement accounts, and instructional investors will all also revolt.

In my opinion, only the emotional ones. This is not most investor's first time at the rodeo. If people are concerned about what is going on with the markets, they shouldn't be involved with equities. Source: Fidelity.

B, S & T: Spinning Wheel. What goes up, must come down, spinning wheel, got to go 'round.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Someone needs to take a macroeconomics and finance class. Also it would help to learn some history.

The current trajectory seems to be almost intentionally courting a global economic collapse.

This is utterly insane. Somehow the United States ended up with a dysfunctional Command Economy like the Old Soviet Union or Maoist China. The best analogues to what is happening here is Mao's Great Leap Forward. Which killed millions of their own citizens.

You can make arguments for reshoring some manufacturing capacity. But it will take years and cost trillions of dollars. It isn't a great start if that is your goal to wipe out trillions of dollars of capital that you'd need to build that new manufacturing capacity.

We are in a situation where we are basically telling farmers in Iowa to stop exporting soybeans and to plant avocado trees for the domestic market instead...

 

[DDBB]

Today, trump said the price of eggs has gotten too low.. Honestly.

 

[DaveMatthews]

Someone needs to take a macroeconomics and finance class. Also it would help to learn some history.

The current trajectory seems to be almost intentionally courting a global economic collapse.

This is utterly insane. Somehow the United States ended up with a dysfunctional Command Economy like the Old Soviet Union or Maoist China. The best analogues to what is happening here is Mao's Great Leap Forward. Which killed millions of their own citizens.

You can make arguments for reshoring some manufacturing capacity. But it will take years and cost trillions of dollars. It isn't a great start if that is your goal to wipe out trillions of dollars of capital that you'd need to build that new manufacturing capacity.

We are in a situation where we are basically telling farmers in Iowa to stop exporting soybeans and to plant avocado trees for the domestic market instead...

To think that everything was running along just fine thank you very much. This self inflicted idiocy, caused by one single fool is jaw droppingly destructive.

 

[PedalUma]

Kruger/Dunning. Interestingly, the most highly competent underestime their skill level. They question themselves.

Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org