Will ebikes really lead the EV revolution?

[Readytoride]

Was intrigued to see this article in Car and Driver magazine (online 12/31/2019)...

The Ride into Our Electric Future Will Be Led by Bikes
By 2025, expect to see 12 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide each year—and more than 40 million electric bikes.



Being the owner of an EV (2018 40Kw Leaf) I don't think one necessarily leads the other, and the title may be a bit misleading based on the article itself. But an interesting read, nonetheless, since rarely do I see "ebike" and "EV" mentioned together in the same article. Especially in a magazine such as Car and Driver.

 

[FlatSix911]

Was intrigued to see this article in Car and Driver magazine (online 12/31/2019)...
The Ride into Our Electric Future Will Be Led by Bikes
By 2025, expect to see 12 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide each year—and more than 40 million electric bikes.

Being the owner of an EV (2018 40Kw Leaf) I don't think one necessarily leads the other, and the title may be a bit misleading based on the article itself. But an interesting read, nonetheless, since rarely do I see "ebike" and "EV" mentioned together in the same article. Especially in a magazine such as Car and Driver.

Interesting article... I think that eBikes and scooters will also be a key factor in many developing countries.

 

[glenmorenee]

I doubt it. It won't be anywhere near like China, maybe similar to Japan.

I couldn't find that user age group survey from a few months ago but IIRC the majority were recreation focused old timers. Old timers with coin that is.

You may have a few commuters but never a whole lot.

For a youngish worker bee, add up the cost of a car, insurance, maintenance, parking, grid lock commuter traffic and they will still prefer it over erratic crowded buses or unpleasant subways (Wet seats! Yuck!) or dodging traffic on a bike.

 

[Ravi Kempaiah]

Was intrigued to see this article in Car and Driver magazine (online 12/31/2019)...

The Ride into Our Electric Future Will Be Led by Bikes
By 2025, expect to see 12 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide each year—and more than 40 million electric bikes.



Being the owner of an EV (2018 40Kw Leaf) I don't think one necessarily leads the other, and the title may be a bit misleading based on the article itself. But an interesting read, nonetheless, since rarely do I see "ebike" and "EV" mentioned together in the same article. Especially in a magazine such as Car and Driver.

It is an interesting article.
In terms of volume, E-bikes will grow extremely quickly and in places like China, Germany and Netherlands, it is making massive impact already.

In the US market, the growth will be relatively slow as EV incentives are fading away. This decade (2020-2030) will be the most significant one for EV adoption.
We will see major market disruption and a LOT of changes...

 

[Johnny]

IMO The revolution is led by Tesla. Electric cars were easy to make yet the problem was the range and charging. Tesla has came up with solutions to both with their charging stations, gigafactories. Other then these you simply drive an electric car on the road as you drive any other car.

Ebikes, scooters may seem like better candidates for this revolution since they don't require large batteries or high power charging stations
however, I believe the problem is the lack of cycling infrastructure. The current bike paths are broken/limited for long distance commuting and riding on the bicycle lanes or on the road are not safe enough to lure many people into this kind of commuting. Parking your bicycle and theft is another problem.

 

[Captain Slow]

Very interesting. I agree that adoption rate will probably not be as high as the article suggests and it will vary by region. Here in the Vancouver area we might have reasonably good adoption but lots of people are not going to brave the rain and cold in the winter. You can already see that in the summer bike commuting is way higher than in the winter with spring and fall being in between.

I suppose in warmer areas, say Florida you might see more people bike commuting year round.

 

[indianajo]

IMO The revolution is led by Tesla. Electric cars were easy to make yet the problem was the range and charging. Tesla has came up with solutions to both with their charging stations, gigafactories. Other then these you simply drive an electric car on the road as you drive any other car.

Yeah, right. In October I drove an Elanta 730 miles from west El Paso to Sealy Tx in 12 hours. There was a 30 minute lunch stop in Ozona. Good luck on finding a charging station in Ozona, Tx near a Subway restaurant. Good luck on charging in 30 minutes. The previous day we drove 600 miles from G.C.Natl Pk to El Paso in 9 hours.

 

[slayer1962]

what i find interesting is last i read renewable energy accounts for about 10% of all our electric . Most still comes from fossil fuels running turbines. So much for clean energy

 

[6zfshdb]

The US is a large country encompassing many climate zones. Some are bicycle friendly but many are not, especially in winter. On top of that, a large percentage of commutes in this country are beyond the practical range and speed of an e-bike.

In congested urban / suburban areas, e-bikes are a far more practical transportation alternative and their popularity will surely increase. For the rest of the country, growth will depend on recreational popularity.

There are many factors which will impact this growth. E-bike laws and regulations vary widely and in some cases conflict. Stabilization and consistency is vital as this growth occurs to avoid chaos.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, bike infrastructure needs to be improved and maintained. If safer lanes and pathways are not provided, the bike related injury / fatality rate will increase at the same rate as e-bike growth.

 

[AHicks]

It's not like I don't like the idea, but I don't see it as a universal application. We're too spread out for the most part (with notable exceptions), and much of the year a lot of the country is not "rideable" due to extreme weather.

 

[harryS]

Yeah, right. In October I drove an Elanta 730 miles from west El Paso to Sealy Tx in 12 hours. There was a 30 minute lunch stop in Ozona. Good luck on finding a charging station in Ozona, Tx near a Subway restaurant. Good luck on charging in 30 minutes. The previous day we drove 600 miles from G.C.Natl Pk to El Paso in 9 hours.

Tesla got you this time! There's a charging station by the Quality Inn in Ozona, about .2 mile from the Subway,

Ozona, TX | Tesla

Schedule a Tesla test drive at a time and date that is convenient for you.

www.tesla.com

 

[harryS]

However, I don't feel like part of the EV revolution with our ebikes. We ride for recreation. I get into a gas vehicle for travel.

 

[Ken M]

Sadly most people in North America view bikes as leisure and recreation products. eBikes should change that but even in the EBR forums you see most comments that the ebike was purchased for recreation and not transportation / commuting. I do think some of this is because most ebikes being sold here are not suitable for transportation.

I do understand the infrastructure for biking is not great but I don't think that it's a bad as most imply unless the only acceptable solution is considered to be exclusive biking lanes everywhere which will not happen unless ebikes become very popular for commuting.

I get hammered again by the mamby pambies but I will continue to claim that an assist limit of 20mph on the vast majority of ebikes is just too slow to be an effective transportation solution (time is more expensive here so how long the commute takes does matter). It's tiresome to hear those wieners that claim if the bikes can assist to higher speeds they'll be hot rods on all the sidewalks putting pedestrians at risk. That is just a fear tactic.

 

[Readytoride]

... but I will continue to claim that an assist limit of 20mph on the vast majority of ebikes is just too slow to be an effective transportation solution

I agree. I do not commute (retired) but I do want the option to have assistance up to 22 or 23 mph when I ride, and not have the motor cut out at 19.5. 23 to 24 mph is the top of my comfort level and would be the perfect maximum speed for me if I was commuting.

 

[Readytoride]

I drive my EV everywhere. Can't do that with my ebike because I'm too far from everything, and I do NOT want to leave my bike anywhere, even locked up. Even when I'm on group rides I will not let my bike be alone anywhere.

If I was commuting, I would have to bring my bike inside the building with me. No discussion. Otherwise, the bike would remain at home and I'd use another means of transportation.

 

[FlatSix911]

I agree. The manufactures are being too policially correct and not really focusing on the reality of commuting. Which is why the delimiters being sold aftermarket have a following.

I fully intend upon purchasing a delimiter once my motor is out of warranty. I may not commute (retired with an at-home website business) but I do want the option to have assistance up to 22 or 23 mph when I ride, and not have the motor cut out at 19.5. My other ebike - a Class 2 20mph limited hub - goes (unintentionally due to my light weight) up to 23.6mph before it cuts out. That's at about my comfort level and would be the perfect speed for me if I was commuting.

My Giant LaFree E+1 meets every one of my needs except for the 20mph assist limit. As long as I have the ability to change that whenever I want, I'm not kicking (too much). Just have to wait out the warranty.

I agree with you on the commuting speed requirements. I now have 3 eBikes and have tuned them with a Bada$$box to double the speed limit.
They are still under warranty and I have had no issues or concerns with my local bike shop... the box is very easy to remove for regular service.

 

[Ken M]

It's not like I don't like the idea, but I don't see it as a universal application. We're too spread out for the most part (with notable exceptions), and much of the year a lot of the country is not "rideable" due to extreme weather.

I just want to comment about cold weather riding. I also thought that the seasons mattered but I did a lot of winter riding in Colorado and I found it to actually be more comfortable than summer riding (90% of the time I'd just have a shell jacket and fleece pull-over on ... obviously wearing gloves and sometimes pull-over nylon shell pants but never realy. You warm up very quickly even on an ebike and anything above 10 degree F (we have dry air) is not bad at all.

I did make one bad mistake and hit an ice coated wooden bridge during a freezing drizzle and had a very bad crash so you do have to pay attention to slick conditions (don't make that mistake...I just assumed the bridge was just a bit wet like the concrete bike path and it was solid clear coated with ice). My injury was pretty bad but I still believe in ebikes for commuting.

I think I will consider alternative tires in the winter including studs but I think paying attention is just vital when winter riding - no sudden turns when slick at all.

 

[Dewey]

in places like China, Germany and Netherlands, it is making massive impact already.

Quantifying that impact, China reportedly has 300 million ebikes, growing by 30 million each year. It boggles the mind. Also reportedly new national standards for ebikes came into effect in China last year classifying anything >400w/48v/25kmh as an electric motorcycle requiring insurance and license.

 

[Ken M]

Quantifying that impact, China reportedly has 300 million ebikes, growing by 30 million each year. It boggles the mind. Also reportedly new national standards for ebikes came into effect in China last year classifying anything >400w/48v/25kmh as an electric motorcycle requiring insurance and license.

China may still be a communist country but they have DMV and insurance industries that want their piece of the pie to ensure they get their guaranteed pensions even at the expense of making ebikes less attractive for real transportation.

If the US went with the >400W/48V/25kph as the legal limit before a rider had to pay motorcycle registration and insurance fees, ebike sales would plummet. Not that anyone at DMV or insurance companies would care. Sorry I'm picking on people in those jobs but I'm sure you know my claims are legit - if it has wheels you guys want a piece of the pie and simply ignore that we need human scale transportation that supplements car usage a lot more than you guys need increased pensions and pay (would be enjoyable to debate an insurance executive on this because all they can think about is their pension and bonus money).

 

[gorse]

Infrastructure is the key to growth of cycle commuting - Utrecht, a city of only 330,000 people, spent 110.5 million euro on cycling infrastructure including 40 million euro on bike parking. They have a 12,500 bike garage below ground next to the central train station, which is being expanded to hold 23,000 bikes securely. Architects brief was parking space and time taken to park from arriving at most remote train platform was to be less than 4.5min.