It's going to be a GREAT YEAR in 2018 for sure, if not a break out year to entirely new levels of sales.
Here's why:
1) A number of MAJOR well known bike players will be introducing their electric bikes in 2018, and they will be at price points for the masses. (i.e. many more high value models that are sub$2000). That's the direction the market needs to go, for wide-spread adoption. Price points between $1200 and $1500, will become the norm for very well equipped, and optioned e-bikes by 2019. The designs will get better, where more ebikes have wider tires (than 35C or 1.75"), and better stability with geometries that favor a cruising style, and up-right position. Too many models are clunky MTB knock offs, that do a poor job of delivering COMFORT, with crappy seats, and ill-positioned handle-bars, tiny pedals, and improperly positioned kick stands. I know this bc my clients give me that feedback, and love the models I bring in to close that gap. I also immediately trade out seats for comfort, and include nice gel oriented brands like Serfas offers that make a huge difference in the ride experience. My close ratio of people who try them, is 90%+. The ebikes sell themselves when you have the right product mix, and features, and can answer all technical questions. Brands like Fuji and Schwinn even, will get a LOT of this right AT THE RIGHT PRICE POINTS, with far nice paint finishes, and features they know everyday cyclists prefer.
2) The 21700 batteries will be put in play, as the competition heats up for more value, more range, and better performance from the more expensive e-bikes. The price points between $2500 and $4500 is EXTREMELY crowded with ebike models, so they either need to really differentiate their brands with many more colors, better paint finishes (dull matte black doesn't cut it for most), or go downward in price to get more butts on ebikes.
3) Media coverage will explode, and transition the dialogue from 'are e-bikes for real ?', to more of a discussion surrounding comparative features and performance. We are transitioning from early adopter terminology to early mainstream. This is where sales double or triple from the prior year here in the US.
4) The shake outs will start happening where smaller players realize they just don't have deep enough pockets to compete, and enough different models for ebike shops to adopt their lines.
5) Regular bike shops who have held out, will realize the growth they are missing out on, and begin bringing more of these ebikes into their inventory by year end.
6) Expect to see more offerings at Big Box stores. Maybe 'flash' or 'pop-up' sales, where they bring products in for short times only. That will greatly increase overall ebike awareness, if not drive people to seek them out at regular bike shops, and exclusive ebike only stores. Many will want to know that someone is local to service them.
Chicago market will definitely see a big year, as I'm already seeing a significant increase of inquiries, people thinking about ebikes that hadn't even been aware of them mere months before, and the normally 'slow' season right about now, is still percolating with excitement and best of all, actual purchases. People that have delayed trying to figure out what to buy, are finally diving in because they don't want to miss out on the excitement and great weather we have been getting this fall. E-Bike companies are pursuing my E-BIKE ONLY shop, where previously it was a little the other way around a year ago.
