Will 2018 be a "Big Year" for eBikes?

[Ken M]

In general the North American eBike market has been disappointing for most vendors. It is an overcrowded market filled with smaller brands seeking fewer and fewer retail IBD's. I expect many vendors will pull out of North America. I also expect Giant, Trek, and Specialized to dominate retail. For those few eBike focused retailers selling at full MSRP, the clock is ticking on their business model as more and more vendors are using every channel available to sell eBikes. Plus as price points navigate downward, there is a price/demand chasm where the decrease in margin dollars generated from lower prices is not supplanted by the higher demand. This phenomenon occurs frequently in young nascent markets and it takes a long time for the demand curve to rise sufficiently to compensate. To give you some insight into how more bike advanced cultures are doing, statistics recently revealed in the German market indicate eBike sales are growing well but still comprise only 3% of unit sales. We see lots of positive movement (environmentally, technically, socially, legislatively et. al.) on eBikes but the absolute numbers aren't sufficient to sustain all the vendors that sell in North America.

To make matters more difficult there really is no brand awareness for vendors either, as evidenced by a recent research report in Bicycle Retailer that showed brand is an inconsequential decision maker when purchasing a bike. Of course, this represents opportunity for those vendors will to spend monies to build brand awareness. Even so, I don't know of a vendor who has the dollars to spend that willing impact brand awareness.

Also, we will continue to see a rise in online startups that bypass retail to deliver a better specified bike at lower prices directly to the consumer.

I like you opinion and insights. It's amazing how the projections for eBike growth (there is good growth in sales and total sales revenue) have lead to a quick "overcrowding" of supply and brands (albeit many totally unknowns). I agree that this will take some time to iron out which could create some support issues for those that purchased the low priced unknown brands (ie this could actually make their long term cost of ownership higher than the more expensive models/brands).

I have a Yunbike that I purchased and the company that sold it to me (while still in business) is no longer selling Yunbikes and my battery died way before the 1 year warranty expired. Obviously, I'm not going to go after them if I can get a replacement battery and there appears to be maybe just one retailer still promoting the Yunbike. Maybe they'll help me but unlikely as they didn't sell me the bike. This just hints at the potential support issues.

There are some major hurdles and negative aspects to the market but in the long run they'll be some standardization (at least hopefully on batteries) such that people can have confidence that they be able to get parts for their eBike for 10+ years minimum. This is necessary if they'll achieve mainstream transportation status. Ebike drive system OEM and bike platform/frame OEMs are a bit too focused on proprietary solutions right now - I think some of these help the value of a high priced bike but I'm just not so sure it's a good way to get a "young nascent" market on a stable path.

Promoting bikes that were mainly designed for the lower power regulations of Europe (larger market so it makes sense for the OEMs to do this) doesn't exactly help the adoption rate in the US where most people have longer travel distances than those living in Europe.

 

[Ken M]

I'll suggest that enthusiasts on this forum are no judge of future sales or trends. The dealers and mechanics that frequent are the exceptions. Of course we are all smitten by the quality and technology. I am the only eBike rider in all my friends and family on Facebook. So that is one in 137. Then of all my other friends and acquaintances, I only know of 1 other person that has a eBike, and he didn't ride a thousand miles last year. I do a Friday night ride with the local bike co-op. I'm the only one on an eBike. In two years of riding, I've only seen 3 eBikes on our local Greenway and Trail. I've never seen one when riding the trails in the Quad Cities along the Mississippi River, nor any when I ride around Springfield, Il. Personally I don't see much growth in the Peoria, Il region.

What's your thoughts on the viability of ebikes to eventually get people out of cars for short distance commutes from home? I agree that enthusiast riders don't really count to towards this potential.

 

[Nova Haibike]

Promoting bikes that were mainly designed for the lower power regulations of Europe (larger market so it makes sense for the OEMs to do this) doesn't exactly help the adoption rate in the US where most people have longer travel distances than those living in Europe.

Europe...and the rest of the world for that matter...look at bicycles in a completely different manner than Americans. Americans by and large only see bicycles as toys, not transportation alternatives. Even when it is considered as an alternative, the disadvantages outweight the benefits in most people's minds. Heck, I drive way more than I should. But it is taking the first step that can be scary...imagine giving up your mobile phone. Could you or would you do it? It's that kind of decision.

 

[Asher]

The answer is hidden in plain sight.

Unlike Europe, sales of ebikes will continue to be somewhat lame, compared to their potential. But usage will *skyrocket.*

How? Bikeshare.

Limebike and Bird plan to cover dozens of cities with electric bikes and/or scooters. JUMP is another player. They've raised hundreds of millions of dollars to do precisely that. Chinese firms have raised even more (though they have not deployed any ebikes stateside yet).

$2000 Ebike sales make sense when you already rely on your bike daily, as is common in Europe. Not when your pedal bike just sits in your garage, and you're worried your future ebike will meet the same fate.

That's why bikeshare is so potent - the cost of entry is $2, not $2000. And maybe an ebike doesn't make sense for commuting, so buying one would be costly. So you use it as needed, via bikeshare.

And this is good for ebike owners, because they mostly want the same things as ebike users, safe roads.

 

[rich c]

The answer is hidden in plain sight.

Unlike Europe, sales of ebikes will continue to be somewhat lame, compared to their potential. But usage will *skyrocket.*

How? Bikeshare.

Limebike and Bird plan to cover dozens of cities with electric bikes and/or scooters. JUMP is another player. They've raised hundreds of millions of dollars to do precisely that. Chinese firms have raised even more (though they have not deployed any ebikes stateside yet).

$2000 Ebike sales make sense when you already rely on your bike daily, as is common in Europe. Not when your pedal bike just sits in your garage, and you're worried your future ebike will meet the same fate.

That's why bikeshare is so potent - the cost of entry is $2, not $2000. And maybe an ebike doesn't make sense for commuting, so buying one would be costly. So you use it as needed, via bikeshare.

And this is good for ebike owners, because they mostly want the same things as ebike users, safe roads.

In my municipality, we just got conventional bike share last year. I have to go around 2 miles to get the nearest share station. Purchasing is a much better option. Also I fortunately made some good choices in life and am living comfortably on mine and my wife's pension. I own 5 eBikes, so purchasing was not a financial difficulty.

 

[rich c]

What's your thoughts on the viability of ebikes to eventually get people out of cars for short distance commutes from home? I agree that enthusiast riders don't really count to towards this potential.

Improbable as well. It looks to me like most people won't even get out of their car to get a cup of coffee. They'd rather sit there with the engine idling for 10 minutes. And don't get me started on the large line of SUVs sitting in front of the neighborhood school with their engines running while they wait to pick up their kids. It's just around the corner from my house, and it almost sounds like a truck stop when you add in all the buses!

 

[Reid]

In my municipality, we just got conventional bike share last year. I have to go around 2 miles to get the nearest share station. Purchasing is a much better option. Also I fortunately made some good choices in life and am living comfortably on mine and my wife's pension. I own 5 eBikes, so purchasing was not a financial difficulty.

I can't avoid the pun you set up, ha ha:

It must be nice to be rich.

 

[rich c]

I can't avoid the pun you set up, ha ha:

It must be nice to be rich.

Rich but not rich as I always say. My second favorite is to tease the kids about spending their inheritance! My first two eBikes were Sondors, only have $1,250 in the pair. Second pair was much higher. The first two purchases in pairs were so our adult kids and I can ride together. Son lives near Northeastern University in Chicago, so ride the Lake Michigan bike path and around downtown with him. Daughter lives in far west Chicago burbs, and ride the Prairie Trail around Fox River. Any time I can spend with them is a real treat!

 

[bob armani]

Rich but not rich as I always say. My second favorite is to tease the kids about spending their inheritance! My first two eBikes were Sondors, only have $1,250 in the pair. Second pair was much higher. The first two purchases in pairs were so our adult kids and I can ride together. Son lives near Northeastern University in Chicago, so ride the Lake Michigan bike path and around downtown with him. Daughter lives in far west Chicago burbs, and ride the Prairie Trail around Fox River. Any time I can spend with them is a real treat!

Yeah, those are some nice paths including the NBT, Weber Spur Sauganash to Valley Line, and the trail along McCormick Blvd (NSC) into Evanston. I recently checked out the Green Bay Trail that rides north towards Botanical Gardens into Northbrook. The NBT also has a new addition and the completion of phase 3 on the south end into Gompers Park. There are plans to extend east to the Lake Michigan bike path as well. We shall see...

 

[Dynamo Dan]

Brent Crude Oil prices hit a 3.5 year high today at $78.13 per barrel. Many market experts are suggesting that the price could hit $120 in the next few months. This will inevitably hit motorists hard and many will look to ebikes as a much cheaper option. I recently calculated that it costs me $4,500 per year to run my beat up old Ford Escape. Compared to a brand new ebike I should be able to recoup that cost in less than 12 months. There are signs that ebike demand is growing rapidly, not just in N America but worldwide. Can the Chinese maintain production? We might even see LBS with nothing to sell, no inventory. Everything sold and no chance of getting new stock delivered.

 

[Bob G]

Here's an interesting concept --
"... the first ever electric EnduroCross eMTB race series. It will be at events and in conjunction to the national indoor off-road AMA EnduroCross Series."
"EnduroCross is a hybrid motorcycle competition, combining super cross, trials, and endure racing. The tracks are indoors, and feature obstacles that are similar to those used in trials competition, including rock gardens and logs, as well as sand, boulders, mud and other obstacles like giant tires. It is billed as America’s most extreme indoor competition."

https://electricbikeaction.com/endurocross-e-bike-races-start-in-2018/

 

[Dmitri]

I'd like to raise a more tangential kind of question with respect to whether or not ebikes will explode, namely "who cares?". Hear me out. All the people on the forum buy and enjoy ebikes and know how cool they are. For example, my household has more ebikes than people. What would be achieved by persuading others of this? Saving the planet? Well, maybe, but you have to persuade everyone to buy a Tesla because people will not give up their "2 card per nuclear family" arrangement. Lower prices? Yeah, ok, maybe, but the majority of people on this forum are here in spite of the high prices. Will wider adoption drive innovation? Maybe, but it will also drive the unelected, nameless bureaucrats in Brussels to come up with more stupid regulations regarding ebikes. We've got regulation to our eyeballs already. And honestly, the one thing ebikes need more of is batteries: this is a problem that's not limited to bikes, it's a global problem affecting gadgets, cars and everything in between.

 

[J.R.]

I'd like to raise a more tangential kind of question with respect to whether or not ebikes will explode, namely "who cares?". Hear me out. All the people on the forum buy and enjoy ebikes and know how cool they are. For example, my household has more ebikes than people. What would be achieved by persuading others of this? Saving the planet? Well, maybe, but you have to persuade everyone to buy a Tesla because people will not give up their "2 card per nuclear family" arrangement. Lower prices? Yeah, ok, maybe, but the majority of people on this forum are here in spite of the high prices. Will wider adoption drive innovation? Maybe, but it will also drive the unelected, nameless bureaucrats in Brussels to come up with more stupid regulations regarding ebikes. We've got regulation to our eyeballs already. And honestly, the one thing ebikes need more of is batteries: this is a problem that's not limited to bikes, it's a global problem affecting gadgets, cars and everything in between.

I like 'flying under the radar'. That ship may have sailed though. It definitely has for the EU. Most people want local options to see and test ride and people especially want local support for the bikes they own. The USA is not yet covered in that way, but it's happening faster than I thought it would 4 years ago. Trek is becoming a major player here and every other ebike manufacturer will chase them.

 

[bob armani]

I like 'flying under the radar'. That ship may have sailed though. It definitely has for the EU. Most people want local options to see and test ride and people especially want local support for the bikes they own. The USA is not yet covered in that way, but it's happening faster than I thought it would 4 years ago. Trek is becoming a major player here and every other ebike manufacturer will chase them.

I hope to see more Trek dealers stocking a larger assortment of E-bikes at their local dealerships. I am finding that Trek dealers have to be a certain distance between each location so they do not compete against each other. Some of the LBS in that same region cannot carry their bikes for that reason. Glad to see they are becoming a major player. Seems very rare to see any deep discounts on any of their fairly new bikes. Always retail, unless perhaps they have an old model lying around gathering dust.

 

[J.R.]

I hope to see more Trek dealers stocking a larger assortment of E-bikes at their local dealerships. I am finding that Trek dealers have to be a certain distance between each location so they do not compete against each other. Some of the LBS in that same region cannot carry their bikes for that reason. Glad to see they are becoming a major player. Seems very rare to see any deep discounts on any of their fairly new bikes. Always retail, unless perhaps they have an old model lying around gathering dust.

Dealers, manufacturers, parent companies, and independent bike shops have all sorts of legal agreements. The one I personally dislike is called MAP, minimum advertised price. Dealers often aren't allowed to advertise a lower price, unless the manufacturer approves it first. That doesn't mean dealers can't sell for less. No one should allow that to keep them from offering less than MSRP. If the salesperson is making commission and the bikes are expensive and not flying out the door, a buyer shouldn't be paying MSRP.

 

[AlanDB]

E-bike sales will take off when the price comes down to a level where places like Walmart sell them in their stores. And that probably won't happen until (and if) the cost of a usable battery comes WAY down (as in the $150 to $300 range).

Yes, I know all the reasons to buy a bike at a LBS instead of Walmart, Coctco, etc. But when those big-box stores start having a selection of e-bikes in stock at a low price, the general (non-enthusiast) consumers will start snapping them up.

 

[MetroDuck]

One of the demographics that I believe could give a boost the ebikes is the baby-boomer generation. I happen to be one of those as are my 10 year older brother and 6 year younger brother. I was mildly surprised last year to hear they had both bought bikes (not ebikes) I think there are a couple of reasons this is a good demographic for the next 10 years or so.

1) This generation grew up on bikes. We did everything on bikes and it is an enjoyable memory pretty much across the board.

2) We are at an age where we are getting serious about our health. I'm sure this was a significant factor that drove my brothers to buy a bike. By the time your reach 55-65 your options for exercise become more limited. Bad knees, hips etc. make running, or even brisk walking more difficult

3) Maybe most important is that this demographic has the money to buy if they see the value.

Myself I recently bought a Magnum Metro Plus which is a fairly upright commuter style bike with a quick release handle bar that allows infinite adjustments. This is attractive because I can easily change it as needed (I have a bad wrist). I looked and tried a LOT of ebikes but liked the ground up design that went into the Metro Plus. It also seemed a great value for what I was getting.

I was talking to the owner and his focus seemed to be on the green energy, less cars, more livable community theme. I have no issues with those but for me it was the ability to once again do something I enjoy while still getting a the moderate level of exercise I need at my age. And it takes me no extra time. My six mile one-way commute takes me 3 more minutes than driving. So now I have converted my commute time to exercise time without having to budget time for that. There are so many "wins". Plus it is just a blast to be on a bike again. My nice hybrid bike will soon be coming off the garage wall, dusted off, and going to my young adult son who is still at the age that he will get a ton of use out of a nice non-ebike.

This same owner told me that they reluctantly ordered a newly released Magnum Cruiser so they would have full line in the shop. They expected little demand for it. He said they were surprised when it sold the first day. They ordered two more and they were sold within a week and they seemed baffled. To me it is logical. I asked if they were baby-boomer age; of course they were. These cruiser bikes are extremely comfortable and just the thing I can see being really attractive to my generation.

If you sell these and haven't considered targeting your sales and service to baby-boomers I think you might be missing out. I would focus on good value to price for moderate use, comfort and really good support after the sale.