What sells and will sell or not sell in the US based on total threads for top ebike brands

[Deleted member 803]

If I were to make a guess based on the current state of the ebike industry in North America, I'd probably say that 90% of the brands that are selling today will either cease US operations or go out of business in the next five years. All the vital signs are weak, the IBD channel is cratering, Accell Group is thinking of selling or shutting down its North America division, Ride share has yet to iron out operational issues and produce sustainable profits, and my last copy of Bicycle Retailer was just a few pages.

In the interim, until a major player with money enters the market, only the tiny direct manufacturers will survive. And by tiny I mean vendors doing $50M or less. Companies like Riese and Muller may continue to sell, but they are a tiny cottage business happy to have only a handful of resellers and a few hundred unit sales.

Now don't yell at me. I love ebikes and continue to support them at every turn.

 

[Deleted member 803]

Yep. People would be absolutely shocked at how few ebikes the top 3 bike industry players actually sell. Giant, Trek, and... will let you guess the third.

Ironically, Giant builds and sells ~ 60% of regular bikes worldwide.

On ebike Sales, it's worse than Pareto's 80/20 rule. Less than 20% of ebike brands, sell more than 80% of all ebikes, excluding the China market. China can't be counted for many reasons, but suffice it to say what they consider to be 'ebikes' aren't what we consider ebikes here in the US and Europe.

But ya gotta love Chinese ingenuity. Take a garbage can, mount a stinky diesel motor on it, add some wheels from a wheel barrow, and voila, you have an ebike. I used to ride motorcycles. I loved all the knockoff scooters and motorcycles I saw.

 

[Ebiker01]

It definetly looks like if those brands don’t lower their prices under 2.5k or 2k , they won’t sell in large numbers and will have to exit the market.
For a regular person a Hi tech ebike looks like a normal bike and they are used with spending 4-5-maybe 600$ for one. Even much less if bought at Walmart. Only the connoisseur knows that a good one is at least 3k and UP.


So there needs to be also some education being done as to the many advantages of having an ebike and what is an ebike.
This is in a way like bringing alien technology (lithium, 600wh, 500watts, Pas, throttle, 48v 12.6amps ?, 18650cells, controller, 4amp charger, 75Nm, Torque sensor, charging cycles ? and so on...this is a new language for many and needs to be slowly and patiently explained to many potential buyers). Awhile ago , did a rough ride and battery/Lcd stopped working. I checked battery pins , one was to far out (from the shocks during the ride it moved 2mm) and i slightly adjusted it. I was back on the bike in 2 minutes. For The avg. Rider is hard to learn all this stuff quickly.


A lot of those threads on Ebr and other forums are - How this/How that ? Is it safe ? What product ...me too, i asked in the beginning lots of q’s and of course i still ask when needed.
That is why , it mostly attracts a certain crowd-people who understand it (i would venture to say smarter or with above average IQ but that would open a big hot and very messy discriminating debate) and/or have put the time and energy and learn about it.
It took me almsot 1 1/2 years to know how to fix any bike electrical issues , know how to open any and all components , change any parts, bleed the brakes, have flat proof wheels, safely ride a 750watts , 30mph S pedelec, maintain my battery in a healthy charged state and many other bits....


There’s a reason Pedego , Magnum, Rad power sell tens of thousands of bikes each. Low prices, good warranty, dealer.
And then the numbers clearly add up..
270k ebikes sold in 2017. Maybe half or
75% of sales taken by those 3brands alone. Giant also makes bikes for many other top brands.
Then the rest : between 1-5k units for each of the mentioned brands in top 10-15.

 

[E-Wheels]

Accell Group is thinking of selling or shutting down its North America division

https://www.bike-eu.com/home/nieuws...in-turn-over-excluding-north-america-10135478

 

[Mike TowpathTraveler]

https://www.bike-eu.com/home/nieuws...in-turn-over-excluding-north-america-10135478

That's quite the load of corporate double-speak gobbledygook contained in that article. That's the voice of corporate suits talking, not enthusiasts for their product. I read the same bs garbage coming from Mary Barra at GM or Jim Hackett at Ford when they are trying to outline their latest plant closure and corporate downsizing. I can now better understand why Suzanne Puello left Winora as she saw what was coming with this leadership currently in place. https://www.bicycleretailer.com/int...nora-group-citing-irreconcilable#.XK9jE-hKhPY

If the Euros feel threatened by the potential 330 million sales to American's and their lack of reaching out to them with affordable product; that's their loss, not ours. Somebody will always come along and fill their slack. All the more, I see more and more product from the top tier lines that are at or are pushing at, 10 grand for an ebike. And that simply is not going to fly except with the exception of a very small volume boutique brand. The rest have to come out with an affordable and reliable Chevy, Ford or VW priced ebike for the rest of us.

Meanwhile, I see more and more Tesla's on the road these days. VW and the other car makers are ready to embark on electric vehicles on a mass scale in the US and these folks in Big Corporate Ebike are lamenting the small numbers of sales in the US? Corporate sales victory awaits those who gut it out. Those who set up a real network of dealers who service what they sell. Who won't tell a customer who just wants to buy another battery decal set to go with the new thousand dollar battery they just bought that ......here in the US, we don't offer battery decals for sale, Full Stop. (Haibike).

More and more, I'm liking Yamaha's strategy of slow and steady, a small line of decently equipped bikes with a bullet proof drive at a very favorable price point versus say, Haibike with their 10 grand Flyon waiting to come over to the US and sell out to the 20 or 25 buyers.....

 

[Mr. Coffee]

We enjoy our life here in this tiny blip!

A question: How do we figure out what the sales are for different ebike companies?

In general you don't.

Unless they are publicly held companies in countries that enforce their securities laws, there is no requirement for a company to report its annual sales, much less break it down by category. Even if they do report sales figures, I'm not at all clear about whether those figures need to be truthful or accurate (again, the rules are different for publicly held companies in countries that enforce or have laws against such things as fraud).

However, you can pull a few things together.

Rad Power Bikes claimed $7 million in revenue in 2016, which since most of their bikes cost around $2000 would have meant they sold about 3500 bikes. If you dig around on the net you get 2018 figures somewhere between $50 million and $90 million, which again using that $2k estimate means they sold between 25000 and 45000 e-bikes.

Yes, I know Rad Power bikes sell for less than $2000, and I know they sell other stuff. $2000 is a nice round figure that makes the math easier. I'm one hundred percent certain based on the sales figures that they sold more than 10000 e-bikes and less than 100000 e-bikes in 2018. So that at least gives you ball-park figures.