Novel Coronavirus discussions

[Ebiker01]

From 7 to 15.000 infected in only 32days ??
That is a problem.
That can reach 1-200.000 in a matter of 5-7days from now. And then millions + .

It's easy to make a mistake, very hard to rectify it now .
That doctor must feel a tremendous anger towards his own country...

 

[Handlebars]

From 7 to 15.000 infected in only 32days ??
That is a problem.
That can reach 1-200.000 in a matter of 5-7days from now. And then millions + .

It's easy to make a mistake, very hard to rectify it now .
That doctor must feel a tremendous anger towards his own country...

Nobody in China who communicates believes it's only 15000. They are being arrested. Trudeau and the WHO chief can't congratulate the Chinese bosses hard enough for their wonderful work saving the world.
Some people are throwing their pets off the balconies because they believe that dogs and cats can carry it too. 15000 sick in China would hardly be noticed. 100,000 were at the state feast after the disease was already going. It's way way bigger already.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Case count is now over 17000. But those under close monitoring is said to be over 150000 in China alone. Those under observation have surged by more than 15,000 since yesterday.

They are having a very hard time getting tests done fast enough. In addition to treating severe respiratory situations. Stories about people being intubated just to breathe.

The testing is also an issue in the US. The challenge is the symptoms are similar to other flu like illnesses, and so thousands of tests are being directed to the CDC here in the US. The flu season here in the US is running pretty heavy.

China has a health care system that is overwhelmed right now. Some medical experts here who have been there in recent months, said their health system was in shambles before any of this happened.

Scientists from the UK are estimating that only 1 in 20 people who are getting infected are actually being diagnosed. So that 17,000 case number could be off by 20 times.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

If you understand viral genetics and how they’re bioengineered, what the video is saying is that was definitely an escaped research virus.

Time will tell, but I’m willing to bet good money it is bioengineered and it escaped from their lab.

Well, said paper has been withdrawn (https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.30.927871v2), and I quote:

This paper has been withdrawn by its authors. They intend to revise it in response to comments received from the research community on their technical approach and their interpretation of the results. If you have any questions, please contact the corresponding author.

Still want to take that bet?

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Case count is now over 17000. But those under close monitoring is said to be over 150000 in China alone. Those under observation have surged by more than 15,000 since yesterday.

They are having a very hard time getting tests done fast enough. In addition to treating severe respiratory situations. Stories about people being intubated just to breathe.

The testing is also an issue in the US. The challenge is the symptoms are similar to other flu like illnesses, and so thousands of tests are being directed to the CDC here in the US. The flu season here in the US is running pretty heavy.

China has a health care system that is overwhelmed right now. Some medical experts here who have been there in recent months, said their health system was in shambles before any of this happened.

Scientists from the UK are estimating that only 1 in 20 people who are getting infected are actually being diagnosed. So that 17,000 case number could be off by 20 times.

Well, the situation is both much worse and much better than you describe it. Possibly as many as 80-90 percent of the people infected by the virus are asymptomatic, so there very well may be more than 100k people infected with the virus. That is good because it means that the death rate is much lower and much less scary, and also because that means we are miscalculating the R0 value (currently estimated at above 4, which is insanely high).

Chances are that this virus has been circulating in people for some weeks earlier than suspected, and that "patient zero" really wasn't.

This situation still isn't good, but it isn't "bring out your dead" bad either.

In all honesty, China is doing a much better job than it did with the SARS outbreak in 2003. Yes, very far from perfect, but still much better. And you have to ask yourself, how well would the US do if they had to lock down Chicago or Los Angeles?

 

[Handlebars]

look @0:04

 

[Handlebars]

also because that means we are miscalculating the R0 value (currently estimated at above 4, which is insanely high).

I read the R naught is 2.2

 

[Handlebars]

... there very well may be more than 100k people infected with the virus. That is good because it means that the death rate is much lower ...

Not necessarily if the number of dead is also being lied about. Details details. What bad news don't they lie about?

 

[Deleted member 4210]

• Hong Kong closes more land borders with mainland
• Virus death toll rises to 425 in China (426 if we count one death abroad)
• Total number of confirmed cases tops 20,500,........... 171,329 cases under observation
• 2 more cases reported in Germany

* * *

Update (1850ET): In what is by far the largest announcement of coronavirus cases so for, Beijing just announced more than 3,000 new confirmed cases.


Beijing is now reporting 3235 newly confirmed cases (2345 in Hubei Province) and 492 severe cases (442 in Hubei Province). And that's not all. China is reporting 171,329 cases under observation, up 18,629 overnight, along with 23,214 newly suspected cases.

China also added quarantine to cities that represent another 30,000,000 people. (over 80,000,000 million people in total, not allowed to leave home except for certain situations)


P.S. Not sure how long these multi-city/province quarantines will be enacted, but they are covering most of the major industrial cities where ebikes would be made. Hearing some re-opening of factories will not be at least until Feb 14th. The supply chain disruption here could have a serious dominoe effect, in many industries, not just ebikes. The way the ebikes are pre-ordered, then built, then finally shipped (by sea) could impact inventories of a lot of industry players.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

the scientists in Hong Kong are not likely mis-calculating R naught nor mis estimating the % of cases resulting in deaths. (others are though). They are doing it all properly, using case counts that take in account the time between the virus first makes its contact with the humans affected, then the time period of symptoms, and then spread to other humans. They do know the proper way to determine Rnaught, and took painstaking efforts to accurately obtain correct and verified clinical data.
These professionals are producing these research papers in a super timely fashion, in which there is not time to be peer reviewed, which would take months longer, and make their reports useless to world health professionals trying to make decisions on how to stem the tide of this nasty virus. Its much closer to 4, than 3.0 or even 2.5, based on a lot of other data scientists around the world have been gathering on this situation. Its a rapidly evolving situation which requires these types of assessments to be done, and then variances assigned to certain parameters.

You can learn more about it here if you desire....

Its still tracking as an geometric increase, well above Rnaught of 2.5, or even 3.0... (the numbers presented above post on the case increases, even if they are still way too low versus actual, are confirming the geometric spread - exponential when plotted on log charts - increases shown in this video below)

And if you dont believe the above maybe a Dr who is professor of medicine and infectious diseases from Mayo Clinic, saying "we are basically seeing a Pandemic" - would provide some measure of credibility to the seriousness of what is going on... and most importantly he says the cases being counted right now, are absolutely an underestimate. (I.e. the now 20,000, is way low)

 

[Handlebars]

This is why that awful Ontario team fluffing off concerns and waving sick people through, is so despicable.
Today the news is about a Chinese Canadian flower store owner who had someone ask him about China. Immediate major concern and drives to combat xenophobia and help his business do better than Valentines Day. That was our news. Xenophobia. Because someone asked him questions about China. Now they call quarantine "detention"camp in the news, in order to smear the effort.
And China is boarding people up in houses, while criticizing USA for xenophobic reaction. It's insanity.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Confirmed corona cases now at 24,324 and confirmed deaths due to the virus are 492.


There Are some folks claiming the numbers each day are following a formulaic 'curve' and the data being released is controlled. Their projection for the next daily release is 27,571 cases, and 576 deaths. Then the day after would be around 31,649, and 661 respectively. If the variance is within 1 to 3% of each forecast vs actual, they may be on to something.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

This is economically chilling...

"Basic Fun, a toy company based in Boca Raton, Florida, has sought suppliers in Vietnam and India with no luck yet. Its CEO, Jay Foreman, said he is hoping that the factories in China will resume production by early April, which he considers the best-case scenario. But he fears that any more delays could mean that the factories don’t start to ramp up production until after May 1. "

"Literally all 33,427 hospitals in China are overflowing with patients and medical supplies are running out everywhere, patients are being turned away and there is literally not many test kits for the coronavirus. New epicenters have sprung up in cities like Zhejiang, Chongqing, Henan and Hunan. Zheqiang and Chongqing are now the worst hit with many cities in those provinces looking exactly like Wuhan now. Thousands are sick with the coronavirus and are in critical condition.


As of midnight on Tuesday, the government hurriedly closed and placed under lockdown the Zhejiang cities of Taizhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou and also Hanzhou, home to tech giant Alibaba. More than 24 million people will be affected just in Zhejiang alone, adding to tens of millions of people already affected by shutdowns in other cities."

Source: Thailand Medical News.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Confirmed corona cases now at 24,324 and confirmed deaths due to the virus are 492.


There Are some folks claiming the numbers each day are following a formulaic 'curve' and the data being released is controlled. Their projection for the next daily release is 27,571 cases, and 576 deaths. Then the day after would be around 31,649, and 661 respectively. If the variance is within 1 to 3% of each forecast vs actual, they may be on to something.

Well the reported numbers from China out today were 28,266 (versus projected of 27,571) cases, and 562 deaths (versus 576 projected). Both were within 2.5% variance.

 

[Browneye]

That's incredible - 24m people? Keep it coming...

 

[Handlebars]

analysis of WHO official protection and lying for china

 

[Handlebars]

inside China appraisal of false reporting by China:

 

[Handlebars]

How much thinking does it take to see through the health officials' story imploring us not to wear masks in public?
They say that in hospitals it's so they don't infect patients and that masks aren't very effective at preventing inhalation of disease agents.

Then why did they all of a sudden have to give special instructions to staff on how best to fit the masks? Were they remiss before or are they lying now?

 

[Deleted member 4210]

400,000,000 people in China are now under quarantine. Will businesses really open back up as soon as Monday Feb 10th ?

It must be spreading faster and much wider than the numbers being reported to cause that many people to be locked down.

One epidemiologist is indicating 50,000 new cases are occurring daily. With a country of 1.5 billion people, I guess that could be possible, but very hard to fathom , unless these quarantines have been too late to be imposed on the larger cities.

 

[BrianK]

I had heard vague rumors that this virus targets Chinese but thought it was nonsense.

This video quotes a non peer reviewed Asian study saying this coronavirus targets a receptor in lung tissue that is much more prevalent in Chinese males than blacks or Caucasians.

That might explain why it’s seemingly going parabolic in China but not outside China.

The Chinese communists IMO will eventually use that to claim this was a bioweapon attack on China by the USA (to cover up their own incompetence) and could actually cause a war.