steve mercier
Well-Known Member
I have only ever added one person the ignore . I am not ready to toss Handlebars in the that pile. I do wonder if he even owns a bicycle though.I also added him to the ignore folder
I have only ever added one person the ignore . I am not ready to toss Handlebars in the that pile. I do wonder if he even owns a bicycle though.I also added him to the ignore folder
Roger I. Roots, J.D., Ph.D.,
Founder, Lysander Spooner University
May 30, 2019. St. Mary, Montana. Officials at Glacier National Park (GNP) have begun quietly removing and altering signs and government literature which told visitors that the Park’s glaciers were all expected to disappear by either 2020 or 2030.
In recent years the National Park Service prominently featured brochures, signs and films which boldly proclaimed that all glaciers at GNP were melting away rapidly. But now officials at GNP seem to be scrambling to hide or replace their previous hysterical claims while avoiding any notice to the public that the claims were inaccurate. Teams from Lysander Spooner University visiting the Park each September have noted that GNP’s most famous glaciers such as the Grinnell Glacier and the Jackson Glacier appear to have been growing—not shrinking—since about 2010. (The Jackson Glacier—easily seen from the Going-To-The-Sun Highway—may have grown as much as 25% or more over the past decade.)
But at some point during this past winter (as the visitor center was closed to the public), workers replaced the diorama’s ‘gone by 2020’ engraving with a new sign indicating the glaciers will disappear in “future generations.”
Almost everywhere, the Park’s specific claims of impending glacier disappearance have been replaced with more nuanced messaging indicating that everyone agrees that the glaciers are melting. Some signs indicate that glacial melt is “accelerating.”
A common trick used by the National Park Service at GNP is to display old black-and-white photos of glaciers from bygone years (say, “1922”) next to photos of the same glaciers taken in more recent years showing the glaciers much diminished (say, “2006”). Anyone familiar with glaciers in the northern Rockies knows that glaciers tend to grow for nine months each winter and melt for three months each summer. Thus, such photo displays without precise calendar dates may be highly deceptive.
Last year the Park Service quietly removed its two large steel trash cans at the Many Glacier Hotel which depicted “before and after” engravings of the Grinnell Glacier in 1910 and 2009. The steel carvings indicated that the Glacier had shrunk significantly between the two dates. But a viral video published on Wattsupwiththat.com showed that the Grinnell Glacier appears to be slightly larger than in 2009.
The ‘gone by 2020’ claims were repeated in the New York Times, National Geographic, and other international news sources. But no mainstream news outlet has done any meaningful reporting regarding the apparent stabilization and recovery of the glaciers in GNP over the past decade. Even local Montana news sources such as The Missoulian, Billings Gazette and Bozeman Daily Chronicle have remained utterly silent regarding this story.
(Note that since September 2015 the author has offered to bet anyone $5,000 that GNP’s glaciers will still exist in 2030, in contradiction to the reported scientific consensus. To this day no one has taken me up on my offer. –R.R.)
I can answer that question!I have only ever added one person the ignore . I am not ready to toss Handlebars in the that pile. I do wonder if he even owns a bicycle though.
Who claimed the world will end in 12 years.In June 2019, Thunberg spoke by video link with Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
At a Martin Luther King Jr. Day event with Ta-Nahesi Coates, newly elected Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) issued a chilling warning about climate change.
"Millennials and people, you know, Gen Z and all these folks that will come after us are looking up and we’re like: The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change and your biggest issue is how are we gonna pay for it?" Ocasio-Cortez told Coates. "This is the war — this is our World War II."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_°C#cite_note-Bump-11The Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 °C (SR15)[note 1] was published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 8 October 2018.[1] The report, approved in Incheon, South Korea, includes over 6,000 scientific references, and was prepared by 91 authors from 40 countries.[2] In December 2015, the 2015 United Nations Climate Change Conference called for the report.[2] The report was delivered at the United Nations' 48th session of the IPCC to "deliver the authoritative, scientific guide for governments" to deal with climate change.[3]
Its key finding is that meeting a 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) target is possible but would require "deep emissions reductions"[4] and "rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society."[2] Furthermore, the report finds that "limiting global warming to 1.5 °C compared with 2 °C would reduce challenging impacts on ecosystems, human health and well-being" and that a 2 °C temperature increase would exacerbate extreme weather, rising sea levels and diminishing Arctic sea ice, coral bleaching, and loss of ecosystems, among other impacts.[2] SR15 also has modelling that shows that, for global warming to be limited to 1.5 °C, "Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) would need to fall by about 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching 'net zero' around 2050."[2] The reduction of emissions by 2030 and its associated changes and challenges, including rapid decarbonisation, was a key focus on much of the reporting which was repeated through the world.[5][6][7][8][9][10]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_°C#cite_note-FOOTNOTESR15_Reportch._1,_p._4-37Human activities (anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) have already contributed 0.8–1.2 °C (1.4–2.2 °F) of warming.[4] Nevertheless, the gases which have been emitted so far are unlikely to cause global temperature to rise to 1.5 °C alone, meaning a global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is avoidable, assuming net zero emissions are reached soon.[35][36]
meaning a global temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels is avoidable,...
Mike,
Can you delete any emails you may have had with Keith re AR4? Keith will do likewise... Can you also email Gene and get him to do the same? I don't have his new email address. We will be getting Caspar to do likewise...
Cheers
Phil
Greta Thunberg arrived today in NYC by the low-carbon yaucht. I wasn't there. Most of the people there are young.
Just because I'm age 69 doesn't mean I am a energy hog. I've used 4 gal gasoline this year in lawnmowers. I took a week's vacation last May , used ~ 50 gallons gas at about 45 mpg.
I use <400 KWH/month in my residence (summer) mostly to aircondition & keep my walls & pianos from molding. (I tried without once, made a mess). The electric co. says I use 75% of the electricity of an "energy efficient house" of 1200 sq ft. I use less than 125 ccf of natural gas in the dead of winter to heat my residence.
I don't support Ms Thunberg's boycott of school on Fridays to highlight the climate problem. My grandfather was forced out of school age 11 to work in the mine by the mine guards, to replace his father that "broke his neck in a fall". My grandmother worked as a maid in a boarding house to pay her way through 7th & 8th grade, the private "Hamlin Academy". That included tuition, room and board; her mother had moved away to a mine camp to follow her 2nd husband. My other grandmother was bullied out of school in 2nd grade. So when my father found a school that didn't allow bullies to afflict small diligent students, I took advantage and learned everything they would teach me. My grade point was 2nd out of 640 students. I went on to pay my way cash in advance through 4 years of college. "Free" education is a precious right not to be abused.
There should be some other climate warriors on this website: tell your story.
In conjunction with the past century’s long-term temperature increase, ocean-driven climate trends (Pacific Decadal Oscillation of PDO) influence GNP’s regional climate. Tree-ring based climate records reveal PDO effects that have resulted in 20-30 year periods of hot, dry summers coupled with decreased winter snowpack (Pederson et al. 2004). These periods have induced rapid recession, as high as 100 m/yr between 1917-1941, and influence the current rate of recession.
Sadly. that doesn't work in this "science".
You can know it's not science because it's the only one that has never had a paper retracted even though lots of substandard garbage is produced yearly.
Let's take a look at the study "Quantifying the Consensus" produced to show that world famous headline 97% consensus in the climate science literature.
We can actually see the absurd amount of cheating for ourselves if we only look. It doesn't take a scientist to know it's a lie. You CAN know things about the science without being a scientist. We have seen the lying by the most famous.
For the most part they all know about the lying but are part of an activist group takeover that is very very powerful and controls enormous wealth distribution. It gives huge gifts to friends, and destroys opposition careers. So you get an almost perfect fear-based unanimity of cowards in chorus at the trough. It is not science.
Here is the study claim:
After they began their politically motivated stunt, they quickly realized that almost no papers state explicit agreement with the scientific quantified consensus. In truth, less than half of 1% do, according to their own data WHICH YOU CAN SEE FOR YOURSELF in a 2 minute scan of the titles. Right here: https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt
So they quickly found out they couldn't produce the expected 97% consensus. They convened a meeting to fix that. Here's the fix: secretly rule out their own definition they said they are using for "AGW" and make it something almost meaningless. Humans contribute. That is not the scientific quantified amount consensus they claim to be finding.
When you go to their data sheet, and you look for such agreement signs, after each title they have two numerals, and the second numeral is for agreement that humans caused over half of recent warming, like IPCC says. Easy to scan some for yourself and after 200 titles in the list scanned, you realize that it's all a lie. You didn't even find one category 1 paper, category 1 means that it explicitly agreed with IPCC type of AGW that humans are mostly the cause, or over half, or over 50% the cause.
Here you can see that a numeral 1 of the two numerals after each title, means they agreed with IPCC, that over half is human-caused. this is what they say they are out to find, but never again mention it.
"Endorsement 1,Explicitly endorses and quantifies AGW as 50+% "
https://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/2/024024/media/erl460291datafile.txt
But if you look at the titles there, you'll be unable to see ANY without diligent searching, forget 97 % of them. You can scan through 2 hundred and not find one. It was all a lie ...and NO CLIMATE SCIENTIST in the propaganda group known as climate science said anything over a world wide hit in headlines that was a lie that they clearly had to know was without doubt a lie.
Anyone can understand that it's ridiculous to think all papers parrot the same thing. Scientists would know immediately that it's a false claim and that they cheated.
Their claimed definition:
Secret meeting to rule out the definition they say they are using:
They ruled out the definition they claim to be using and never again mention that type of endorsement, which is what the the paper and the title says they are to show.
And it's got nothing at all to do with the "breadth of papers". It's got to do with producing the familiar bogus 97% figure headlines when the facts do not support their propaganda.
As well as quietly dropping the required "scientific" quantification element, they kicked out 2/3 of the papers. So actually not based on 11,944 papers. Now look at their data sheet for level 1 endorsement. It's very rare.
To believe that junk is just sad. Go look for yourself for 3 minutes. See their classification given. See the 2 numerals after each title. Look for the second numeral being a "1".
That people give up their own wits and depend on this kind of propaganda, is not a good sign.
First of all, I find quite ridiculous and childish your attempt to delegitimate science, starting from double quoting the term itself.
Works that way in real science.Although I am not quite sure you can use that fact to identify what is science and what is not, that scientific consensus is, of course, based on scientific papers, which are guaranteed to have a sufficient quality and are peer-reviewed, that is papers get reviewed by several other experts in the field before the article is published (in the journal) in order to ensure the article’s quality.
It should be, but you have been misled.So, the garbage you say is already filtered out.
[Schneider] asked me to review a 2004 submission to Climatic Change by Mann et al responding to MM2003 – consistent with his public representations. It seemed to me that there was an inherent conflict of interest in such a review but this was obviously known to Schneider and I attempted to separate out my interests as a disputant from my obligations as a reviewer as much as possible.
[…] my approach was informed by ideas of due diligence that were not then characteristic of academic peer reviewing. In my capacity as a reviewer, I asked to see supporting data for Mann’s supposed rebuttal to MM2003 – the topic of his submission – and to see source code to document his allegations that we’d supposedly made grievous mistakes in implementing his methodology – again an important aspect of his submission. […]
Schneider replied that he had been editor of Climatic Change for 28 years and, during that time, nobody had ever requested supporting data, let alone source code, and he therefore required a policy from his editorial board approving his requesting such information from an author.
If you accede to this request the whole peer-review process goes down the tubes.
Reviewers will be able to request the earth from authors. If we all started doing this the number of reviews we could do would dramatically reduce. I currently do about 20-30 reviews a year. If I began asking for this sort of information from journals (AMS, AGU, RMS etc) I would be laughed out of court. I guess it would stop the papers to review coming.
The whole system would grind to a halt. I’ve never requested data/codes to do a review and I don’t think others should either. I do many of my reviews on travel. I have a feel for whether something is wrong – call it intuition. If analyses don’t seem right, look right or feel right, I say so. Some of my reviews for CC could be called into question!
They are and I gave the evidence. You didn't bother to read it or you would have learned that it is an accurate description.you keep talking about cheating and lies like they are established and a fact.
Can you explain why pointing out the egregious infractions by most famous, who have influenced thought the most by far, is ridiculous? What would you have said if I talked about the unknown or unimportant who influence not much? You might rightly have mocked that as inconsequential.And keeping using the most famous to discriminate the whole category is also quite ridiculous.
False. They claimed 11,944 papers.... the 97%, this is the original paper (2013), which didnt kick out anything or nobody.
That is how they got the 11,944 papers for their claim. Then they kicked out those that didn't have opinion. I don't make a big deal over that, but the remainder is not "the literature". Understand? Why I didn't make a fuss, is because they declared that part of what they did. Still doesn't leave the remainder 1/3 as "the climate literature". Right or wrong, buddy? Is 1/3 of the literature to be truthfully construed as "the climate literature"? If the 100%, 11.944 papers is "the climate literature", how does roughly 1/3 of that also qualify as "the climate literature"?Because if one wants to know how is the scientific consensus among the science community then of course he plains filters the papers based on topics ('global climate change' or 'global warming' )
Also, it's interesting to notice further:
"In a second phase of this study, we invited authors to rate their own papers. Compared to abstract ratings, a smaller percentage of self-rated papers expressed no position on AGW (35.5%). Among self-rated papers expressing a position on AGW, 97.2% endorsed the consensus. "
f you accede to this request the whole peer-review process goes down the tubes.
Reviewers will be able to request the earth from authors. If we all started doing this the number of reviews we could do would dramatically reduce. I currently do about 20-30 reviews a year. If I began asking for this sort of information from journals (AMS, AGU, RMS etc) I would be laughed out of court. I guess it would stop the papers to review coming.
The whole system would grind to a halt. I’ve never requested data/codes to do a review and I don’t think others should either. I do many of my reviews on travel. I have a feel for whether something is wrong – call it intuition. If analyses don’t seem right, look right or feel right, I say so. Some of my reviews for CC could be called into question!
So he's ADMITTING that they never get properly checked, and if he demanded it in a case where something looked amiss, he would be blackballed.I guess it would stop the papers to review coming.
It's just ludicrous what they have ordinary people believing about review. Can you say "unverified" ? But feels good?Schneider replied that he had been editor of Climatic Change for 28 years and, during that time, nobody had ever requested supporting data
I think that trying to adopt a timeframe of 2000 years, rather than the usual 1000 years, addresses a good earlier point that Jonathan Overpeck made ... that it would be nice to try to “contain” the putative “MedievalWarm Period”, even if we don’t yet have data available that far back.
This.@Handlebars
The simple fact of the matter is that the glaciers are melting. Some of them have been melting for over a century. Some of them only recently began receding. In nearly all of them that we observe the rate of melting seems to be accelerating. Errors in graphs or local climactic anomalies don't really have any relevance to either of those things.
If you think that the hypothesis is wrong, that's great. How do you explain what is going on? Why are the glaciers melting? Why are nearly all of the glaciers melting? Why does the rate of glacial melt worldwide seem to be increasing?
Well, infamous I would refine that statement. Mike was covered in a bbcnews article 9/22 about a defamation lawsuit he is involved in. They said Phil's hockey stick graph involved some "interpolated" data in the early years, like before thermometers were invented. We don't need those guys to see bad news in the data. The real data is bad enough. No need to make up data."Mike" is Michael Mann, the most famous climate scientist on earth, the "inventor" of the hockey stick graph, he got there by learning how to hide failures of the data in how he wanted it to look, through use of a neat "trick", and make it look great.
Phil Jones, he did a clumsy version of the trick simply removing data that went a way that he didn't want it to for their story to be told, and replaced it with some from a dataset he did like and falsely named it. And...got caught.
Former Director of CRU Climatic Research Unit in England, which produces one of the 2 most influential global temperature records.
He talked about destroying the whole historical temperature record of the globe in order to evade an incoming FOIA request.
2 of the 3 most famous climate scientists.
This.
Most of us are in USA and Canada, and glaciers and desserts are relatively far away, but "out of sight, out of mind" mindset isn't making problems go away.That is true.
The extreme industrialization sure caused earth's climate change.
Everyone knows that climate changes. It's people who believe it should be a certain temperature but cannot say what that temperature is, who seem to be confused.
Are some of you really fighting whether or not climate change is real????
It's not a rocket science, it's real.
Source: NASA https://climate.nasa.gov/climate_resources/4/graphic-dramatic-glacier-melt/
Timpo, just think about what you've been told is evidence of human induced CO2 warming. What example do you believe proves warming ? Melted ice.
You know what else melts ice? Warmth melts ice. So increasing warmth can do it but also just static degrees of warmth can do it. An ice cube melts in a frying pan on high heat but it also melts on a counter top. so evidence of melting per se is not even evidence of warming. It's evidence of enough warmth to cause melting. "Enough warmth" isn't necessarily "increasing warmth". Global warm isn't the same as Global Warming.
thanks. now here's something from NASA that you might want to try to explain. How come the temperature rise in the arctic up to the mid thirties and the highest peaks of the century were all in the mid thirties by far, and we know about the dust bowl days...how come that temperautre rise was higher bigger and steeper than in the modern portion of the graph?
that was before human CO2 increases could have done it according to IPCC.
So how would you rationalize those temperature changes?