ebike Market Fluctuations?

[byunbee]

As everyone knows, bicycle (and ebike) market has been sizzling for the past couple of months due to COVID-19 pandemic. Manufacturers and retailers are all ramping up production and inventory in order to meet demand. But given the current supply chain issues and shipping delays, demand far outpaces supply.

This got me thinking about when would be the best time to buy an ebike. I certainly don't think right now is the best time (price-wise) unless you have no other choice for commuting and want to avoid public transportation since selection will be few and prices high. Rather, I expect after the economy has reopened and has settled for about a year in the new realiality of the pandemic, the trend(?) will die down a bit, leaving the bike manufacturers and retailers with large supply but lower demand. This is because there is always a delay in supply meeting demand. By the time supply catches up with the demand from when they started ramping up, demand will likely have tapered off and declined.

I also expect a global recession in the coming months (it has already started in several countries and the U.S. is at the cusp of it) which will further decrease demand.

So, when is the best time (price-wise) to buy an ebike? My guess is 12 to 18 months from now.

Please note that these are just my personal musings based on mostly speculation.

What are your thoughts?

 

[harryS]

Depends on your view of the future. Some of us old guys count it a win when we wake up. It's 625AM CST. Altready got our ebikes. Going riding.

 

[byunbee]

Why don't you think now is a good time?

I know that demands have been exceeding supply, but I don't see ebike companies trying to charge higher markups.

Due to low supply, the available selections are much less and no motivation for retailers to discount their bikes. I did say that this is mainly based on pricing factor.

 

[Deacon Blues]

Why don't you think now is a good time?

I know that demands have been exceeding supply, but I don't see ebike companies trying to charge higher markups.

Specialize just bumped up their Creo line by $500 in Canada, but I don't think the increase was because of the pandemic's higher demand for ebikes, since the price for even the basic Creo is well above what most people want to pay for an ebike.

 

[Asher]

I'm gonna eat rice only for a year until the price of vegetables comes down 10%.

The potential savings are tiny relative to the missed benefit. Unless you already have a fine ebike. In which case you don't need to buy a new one.

 

[jaizon]

I'm gonna eat rice only for a year until the price of vegetables comes down 10%.

The potential savings are tiny relative to the missed benefit. Unless you already have a fine ebike. In which case you don't need to buy a new one.

I prefer to ride while I only have one foot in the grave.

 

[byunbee]

I agree with the potential savings vs immediate benefit perspective. I usually never pay retail for major purchases like a good ebike. I believe most people can't afford to do so either (for a good ebike).

 

[J.R.]

I think the best time to buy an ebike is when you can. Personally I wouldn't wait for the next great thing or for lower prices. We've all read about people here searching, and searching, and... More than a few here have called it analysis paralysis. If the money is there don't wait. I am concerned today with the rhetoric coming from the east about a cold war. That will change trade more than this virus already has. I don't know if prices are coming down for a while.

 

[byunbee]

I think the best time to buy an ebike is when you can. Personally I wouldn't wait for the next great thing or for lower prices. We've all read about people here searching, and searching, and... More than a few here have called it analysis paralysis. If the money is there don't wait. I am concerned today with the rhetoric coming from the east about a cold war. That will change trade more than this virus already has. I don't know if prices are coming down for a while.

That's a good point too if it happens. I believe it's mostly posturing and don't think the "cold war" will happen as it will only hurt both countries and neither can afford to play the war game for sustained periods. If signs point to it, it will likely be short-term, measured in months.

 

[zzRider]

As everyone knows, bicycle (and ebike) market has been sizzling for the past couple of months due to COVID-19 pandemic. Manufacturers and retailers are all ramping up production and inventory in order to meet demand. But given the current supply chain issues and shipping delays, demand far outpaces supply.

This got me thinking about when would be the best time to buy an ebike. I certainly don't think right now is the best time (price-wise) unless you have no other choice for commuting and want to avoid public transportation since selection will be few and prices high. Rather, I expect after the economy has reopened and has settled for about a year in the new realiality of the pandemic, the trend(?) will die down a bit, leaving the bike manufacturers and retailers with large supply but lower demand. This is because there is always a delay in supply meeting demand. By the time supply catches up with the demand from when they started ramping up, demand will likely have tapered off and declined.

I also expect a global recession in the coming months (it has already started in several countries and the U.S. is at the cusp of it) which will further decrease demand.

So, when is the best time (price-wise) to buy an ebike? My guess is 12 to 18 months from now.

Please note that these are just my personal musings based on mostly speculation.

What are your thoughts?

I ordered an eAhora XC100 on Amazon on 5/22 for $799. Today, 5/26, it's now $899--up $100 in price.
And that's the "base" XC100, not the XC100 Plus with the color LCD. (The XC100 Plus also went up by $100, to $999.)

So it all depends on how soon you want to be riding, I suppose. When have prices ever dropped for eBikes? I'm new to this electric bike thing, and didn't ride my comfort bike much in the last few years.
Being >65, I now need the exercise more than ever from too much sitting around for 3 months. Plus the weather is nice here in northern Virginia.

Just hoping the shipment doesn't get delayed beyond the stated date of June 30.

 

[rich c]

November thru February is the best time historically. Black Friday especially. But this year I think inventory will be slim to none in the off season. I bought two class 3 Haibikes in late 2016 and early 2017 for $5,400 combined.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

I think this is the very worst time in most of our lifetimes to try to predict the future.

I think you can spin a plausible story where after the covid passes things will go back to being the way they were.

You can also spin a plausible story that because a lot of cities are putting furious effort into making city streets more bike-friendly, a lot of people who don't have many other options for outdoor activities will try cycling, and some of them will like it and stick with it. Because a lot of people right now are purchasing whatever bike they can get their hands on, it is likely they will upgrade or purchase a different bike over time -- that could translate into sustained demand.

Still another plausible story you could tell would be that if this crisis continues for more than six months or so, a lot of people might decide that it is a good time to downsize and it might make sense to replace one of their cars (or all of them) with e-bikes. If you can't travel very far, are mostly working from home, and you pay through the nose for parking and insurance a car is more of a drag than an actual benefit. The fact that public transportation is problematic and much less efficient when social distancing is required also makes bicycles much more appealing as personal transportation.

All of those stories are possible, and almost certainly none of them are one hundred percent correct. The point is that I really doubt anybody has a clue about how this is all going to play out. Best to just go ride your bike and not worry too much.

 

[steve mercier]

...What he said ! And why am I wasting my remaining time on earth on these forums when I should be out riding?...adios amigos.

 

[jaizon]

All of those stories are possible, and almost certainly none of them are one hundred percent correct. The point is that I really doubt anybody has a clue about how this is all going to play out. Best to just go ride your bike and not worry too much.

And wear a mask and maintain social distance when you are near other people!!! We will see a spike in covid cases shortly because so many have ignored these simple precautions. So sad.

 

[jaizon]

...What he said ! And why am I wasting my remaining time on earth on these forums when I should be out riding?...adios amigos.

Just got back from my daily ride. Too damn hot, but I got 2/3 of the way through. No need in tempting fate.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is an interesting market assessment... Amazon is now selling out of cheap EBikes.

E-bikes are so hot, Amazon is selling out - these are the best ones left

It was an unexpected but ultimately positive outcome of the COVID19 pandemic: people everywhere are buying up e-bikes en masse....

electrek.co

 

[FlatSix911]

Unfortunately, people tend to have a very short memory and they will return to their normal habits after the Pandemic has passed.

 

[TMH]

Unfortunately, people tend to have a very short memory and they return to their normal habits after the Pandemic has passed.

Yup, with the current generation if it has not been on Faceplant in the past 5 minutes, it is old and forgotten news!

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is another study from the UK... not sure I believe that 40% will stick with the program.

EGEB: 40% of UK drivers want to drive less to maintain clean air

UK drivers are ready to reduce their driving to maintain clean air as a result of lockdown; Portugal is rolling out a €7 billion green hydrogen strategy.

electrek.co

UK drivers: a big change coming?

The AA took a poll of 20,000 UK drivers, reports the BBC, and 40% said they would drive less in order to maintain the clean air that has resulted from the pandemic lockdown.
Further, 50% said they would walk more, and 80% said they intend to take some action to reduce their own adverse impact on air quality.
Further, 25% of drivers said they planned to work from home more, 25% said they would be flying less, and 20% plan to cycle more.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Unfortunately, people tend to have a very short memory and they return to their normal habits after the Pandemic has passed.

That's certainly possible. Although right now we are going through an event that is unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes. It isn't necessarily wise to assume that people will react to it like other events that we have seen in our lifetimes.