Ebike market crowded....shakeout imminent?

[bob armani]

I know, right?

Well, we ARE the fast food capital of the world here in So-Cal, but admittedly most fast food isn’t so fast anymore cars long. Then there’s the Starbucks drive thru....

Really funny-and here I thought Cali was so trim and fit- able to stay in the great outdoors most of the year and workout. I spent time on the bike paths along the shoreline some years back and all I observed was very lean and fit athletic looking people everywhere from morning til night. It seemed like the workout paradise to be in from San Diego to LA and beyond. Did the local culture change that much?? A friend of mine relocated to Orange County for that very reason. Not sure why so many have become so lazy not to get out and take a walk or a bike ride. Looks like I may have been in a different area unable to see (or did not notice) that element. I also thought the growing trend of ebikes would start getting people back on their bikes instead of going in the other direction. Must be a very low percentage in the demographic for now...

 

[EbikesRock]

Reminds me of the middle days of the personal computer market. There was a big catalog sold at discount stores, computer shopper, with 300 brands and hundreds selling parts. Top were IBM, Compaq, HP, Dell, the ones painted like a spotted cow. Dell & HP survived. Disassembling some, Dell had production engineering that cut the cost of assembly. Like plastic wrappers for disk drives where the wrapper was put on in the orient, and the final assembly in the US, to order spec., involved snapping the wrapper in and inserting one plug.

Exactly- Those not committed won’t survive. The bike guys like Trek treat them like a product line. Bike shops still exhibit disdain for ebikes.

 

[bob armani]

Exactly- Those not committed won’t survive. The bike guys like Trek treat them like a product line. Bike shops still exhibit disdain for ebikes.

I agree. I have been to about 1/2 dozen LBS in my area and they will not stock any ebikes. They are not willing to go the extra mile and expand their inventory in that space. They also do not want to train their bike mechanics in that area either. They are satisfied with only the sale and service of the standard bicycle. Looks like they do not want to be held responsible for any unforeseen or complicated electrical issues that can occur between motor or battery issues IMHO.

 

[Deleted member 803]

Hard to predict what brands will stick around, but the brands that survive will have the best business model, and not necessarily the best product.

What will surprise people the most, is that many brands that SEEM to have popularity now, are most likely NOT the ones that will survive. Precisely because their business models don't allow dealers to make enough to even live on, or are just poor, or they are naively going direct to market on-line.

These brands in no particular order that will most likely struggle:
Evelo
Pedego
Juiced
GoCycle
BigCat
BikTrix
BionX
Dillenger
E-Joe
E-Rad
Prodigy
eVox
Ez-Pedelar
Genze
Grace
Igo
IZip
IES
Jetson
Leed
Motiv
OHM
OptiBike
Populo
Prodecotech
Riide
Sondors
Stealth
SuperPedestrian
VoltBike
Wallerang
Van Moof

There's at least 50 more, than aren't worth even mentioning.

Survivors could be, IF they even decide to keep doing e-bikes:
Bulls
Specialized
Giant
Scott
Worksman
Stromer
Haibike
Schwinn
KTM
Focus
Emotion
Cube
Reise & Muller
Benelli
Yamaha
Trek (though the name may stay, they may dump ebikes if it doesn't go well)

Some names may survive and get bought out, if they have some sort of unique niche they've captured.

None of the above matters anyway, as I predict hundreds more new names will be forthcoming, until the market gets this right. Its WAY too early to speculate on any of this, but it might be interesting to look back in 5 years to see if any of this was right, or wrong.

Serious disagreement with the assumptions and the list. Direct to consumer, online, and mobile delivery are the future of the market. Pedego is a tiny little brand that just happens to be the largest seller of eBikes in the United States. Companies like Stromer, Reise and Muller, KTM and others have very marginal operations in North America. Genze is a tiny little international company that happens to be larger than just about all the vendors combined.

 

[EbikesRock]

Serious disagreement with the assumptions and the list. Direct to consumer, online, and mobile delivery are the future of the market. Pedego is a tiny little brand that just happens to be the largest seller of eBikes in the United States. Companies like Stromer, Reise and Muller, KTM and others have very marginal operations in North America. Genze is a tiny little international company that happens to be larger than just about all the vendors combined.

Pedego a tiny brand? I just saw a press release that they now have 111 stores. They have passionate and committed store owners.

Most of their customers love their Pedego bikes and love the brand. They resemble the Harley Davidson motorcycle culture. They just did a owners group ride and 500 owners showed up. I wouldn’t count them out.

The euro ebikes you listed can’t seem to get much distribution in the US and are very pricey. Trek has the best chance competing with Pedego because they have lots of dealers.

Nobody markets like Pedego and it looks like they hired Bill Shatner as their spokesman.

I build my own ebikes but my wife wants Pedego. She will be getting one for Christmas.

 

[Gogogordy]

Nobody markets like Pedego and it looks like they hired Bill Shatner as their spokesman.

His Priceline gig must not keep him busy enough!

Seriously, Pedego is a sea of calm in somwhat frenetic ebike market IMO, slowly, quietly securing their share of the business with high quality products very effectively marketed AND supported.

 

[Al P]

But a damn good kit, that's dirt simple to install, is going to be developed, that will be at great price point, still have good margin, and will work on the bikes that people already love, that are sitting in their garages unused for various reasons. All the signs are already pointing that direction. I see more and more people everyday asking for me to convert their bike, rather than buy an entire new ebike. People are going to dust off their old bikes they haven't ridden, that they previously loved, and actually fit, and ride them with the new e assist. Thats going to wipe out a lot of also rans, and going to force the players who are charging $3000 to $5000 to significantly drop their prices, OR just get out of the business. Kit sales with really less than desirable characteristics are easily in the millions here in the US already.

Good point about kits. I picked up a good 500w kit for under $1000 and now have a full-suspension hybrid mountain bike that was fairly simple to set up and is lightweight and fun to ride.

If ebike companies want to increase sales in this country they will have to lower prices substantially. I guess that can't happen unless sales increase. Seems like a catch-22 situation.

 

[Gogogordy]

Good point about kits. I picked up a good 500w kit for under $1000 and now have a full-suspension hybrid mountain bike that was fairly simple to set up and is lightweight and fun to ride.

If ebike companies want to increase sales in this country they will have to lower prices substantially. I guess that can't happen unless sales increase. Seems like a catch-22 situation.

I dont see prices coming DOWN in order to drive sales UP when traditional bikes (decent + ones anyway) creep up year after year in the bike biz and it easy to spend as much and more for a good traditional bicycle as any good to excellent ebike. More cheap product = more cheap product.

Now, producing better ebikes with higher cap batteries, more powerful motors and awesome after sale support at the same (cost adjusted) point will be the more natural evolution.

And of course some serious paradigm shifts by the general public.

 

[pxpaulx]

I dont see prices coming DOWN in order to drive sales UP when traditional bikes (decent + ones anyway) creep up year after year in the bike biz and it easy to spend as much and more for a good traditional bicycle as any good to excellent ebike. More cheap product = more cheap product.

Now, producing better ebikes with higher cap batteries, more powerful motors and awesome after sale support at the same (cost adjusted) point will be the more natural evolution.

And of course some serious paradigm shifts by the general public.

Nailed it. 100%. I think the last part of your second paragraph will be key to the ebike industry. Your last note will probably be the hardest to predict, and will have the biggest impact.

 

[Don12]

So my LBS is offering me what seems to be a pretty good deal on two different Cannondale models,
Contro-e Speed and Kinneto. It looks like the Kinneto will be discontinued and Cannondale doesn't look to have a wide range of EBike offerings.
Do you think Cannondale ,a solid bike manufacturer will remain in the EBike market?

 

[pxpaulx]

Maybe Bob wouldn't be so upset if you'd inserted a couple of paragraph breaks

Lighten up gents, the sky ain't falling!

 

[MLB]

The brands that were already in the non-ebike market before the surge in interest like Specialized, Raleigh, et cetera will be able to survive any fluctuations in consumer interest because it's not their bread and butter. I also think companies that can continue to deliver a quality ebike for under $2k will survive like Voltbike and Juiced Bikes. There are other newer companies with great products, but many of them are reverse engineering what's already out there and I think we'll see more of them dry up if demand slows down. As for the top-end ebikes, I think they serve a small niche market of consumers that aren't necessarily looking at the price tag. They're looking at the badge, paint color, design, et cetera and less of the nitty gritty specs. Hard to make a prediction on them.

Wow, not "too" patronizing.... I know some top end bike buyers and they sure as heck aren't the posers you describe. Paint color? Are you kidding? Some people appreciate real quality and are willing to spend more to get it.

 

[Gogogordy]

Easy fellas....this isn’t politics or religion

 

[Dewey]

the current US administration is making protectionist noises.

This week the US Adminstration announced it is considering imposing a 25% import tariff on a list of 1,300 goods made in China including electric motors, controllers, and insulated conductors, and while not (yet) complete ebikes (HTS#87116000) that's meaningless if electric motor parts are affected. The Chinese government responded with a list of 106 American made goods on which a 25% import tariff to China would be imposed.

Granted this has not yet happened but in the event of an escalation I thought it might be worth reviewing a recent world list of electric motor and battery manufacturers. The list is not complete, I don't see Grin Tech (Canada), Pendix (Germany) or eVox (Canada), so there will be others. If things continue it might make Bionx more attractive to a potential buyer.

 

[Deleted member 803]

Pedego a tiny brand? I just saw a press release that they now have 111 stores. They have passionate and committed store owners.

Most of their customers love their Pedego bikes and love the brand. They resemble the Harley Davidson motorcycle culture. They just did a owners group ride and 500 owners showed up. I wouldn’t count them out.

The euro ebikes you listed can’t seem to get much distribution in the US and are very pricey. Trek has the best chance competing with Pedego because they have lots of dealers.

Nobody markets like Pedego and it looks like they hired Bill Shatner as their spokesman.

I build my own ebikes but my wife wants Pedego. She will be getting one for Christmas.

I was being facetious...........

 

[Dewey]

the current US administration is making protectionist noises.

The US Administration has gone ahead and ordered a 25% import tariff be imposed on electric motors made in China to take effect from July 6, and on controllers and conductors in a later second round as the Trade War escalates.

 

[PowerMe]

Wow! Well that's one way to alter the market landscape. A really short-sighted way, but a way nonetheless.

 

[Gator]

Wow! Well that's one way to alter the market landscape. A really short-sighted way, but a way nonetheless.

I wonder what this will do to prices? Throw in some middle east instability increasing demand and we have a seller's market. OUCH! Better get into that Ebike now!

 

[Alex M]

150+ subforums by brand says one thing: a large majority of those brands will ultimately have to go away.

If yo think 150 (of anything) is a crowd, - visit China. New names - call it brands, firms, whatever - will keep popping up as long as there is any demand. Some of those 150 will go away, to be replaced with another 150. Models under 2.5-3K can an will be cloned extensively. There are no rules "out there". Clones with varying degree of quality, to be sold through online businesses of varying respectability at 40-60% of the cost of real thing.

 

[Dynamo Dan]

There seems to be a lot of good analysis of the ebike market stated here on this thread but I'm not sure that the original post has much merit. Sure, there are a lot of small manufacturers coming in to the market but that does not necessarily mean that the market is overcrowded. There is a lot of sentiment on these message boards that express frustration that people want these ebikes but that the manufacturers cannot keep up with the demand. I have spoken to every LBS in my city and they have all told me that they simply cannot get their orders filled. I recently bought my first ebike (actually my first bike in 35+ years) from an online only supplier and had to wait 4 weeks for it to be delivered, because they are swamped with orders. Demand for ebikes is currently outstripping supply. I do not agree with those that believe that the direct to consumer model will fail and that LBS is the only model that will survive. In 5 years time there will still be LBS selling big brand names and there will still be online-only brands. The market will be able to support both models. Some of the smaller companies will hit the wall. This happens in every business sector. But if demand continues to be strong, more players will enter the market faster than existing players leave the market. I believe that demand will continue to strengthen due to fundamentals such as our aging population, rising price of oil, better battery technology and concern over oil dependency. There will be casualties along the way but I so no sign of any great shakeout.