Ebike makers: winners and losers in 5-7 years?

[ebikebob]

Wondering how the market will shake out in the medium term future.
I notice that carmakers are relatively few. A bunch of big names that everyone knows. Start up costs are too high and complicated

but what about ebike makers? There are so many companies out there who are basically ordering 100 units from overseas and having the factory slap a logo on it with zero design or engineering modifications. Can it possibly be a wild wild west forever?

I wonder if it could shape up to be like the computer market. Always a couple of big brands but still tons of room for basically no name brands because it is so trivial to get the hardware to build a computer these days.

if so then maintenance is a huge market opportunity if local bike shops aren’t able or willing to touch ebikes. It’s inconceivable that very many customers will want to maintain a bike themselves. I suspect that much like third party extended warranties for gadgets that eBay offers, it may be normal for people to buy a third party, real life, come to your house or take it to a nearby physical location repair warranty for these internet ordered e-bikes.

 

[Taylor57]

Wondering how the market will shake out in the medium term future.
I notice that carmakers are relatively few. A bunch of big names that everyone knows. Start up costs are too high and complicated

but what about ebike makers? There are so many companies out there who are basically ordering 100 units from overseas and having the factory slap a logo on it with zero design or engineering modifications. Can it possibly be a wild wild west forever?

I wonder if it could shape up to be like the computer market. Always a couple of big brands but still tons of room for basically no name brands because it is so trivial to get the hardware to build a computer these days.

if so then maintenance is a huge market opportunity if local bike shops aren’t able or willing to touch ebikes. It’s inconceivable that very many customers will want to maintain a bike themselves. I suspect that much like third party extended warranties for gadgets that eBay offers, it may be normal for people to buy a third party, real life, come to your house or take it to a nearby physical location repair warranty for these internet ordered e-bikes.

The winners will be the shops that have the skills and technology to fix the DTC ebikes. They will have a customer base they can then sell and service.

 

[Prairie Dog]

Mobile, non-bricks and mortar bike services already exist and even service e-bikes.

https://www.velofix.com/

The LBS will have to find innovative ways to survive during these trying times. My LBS sells, rents and services ski equipment during the slow season in order to supplement the cycling side of their business revenue.

 

[FlatSix911]

Hard to tell what small bike companies will still be in the market in 5+ years... I suspect there will be a major market shakeout post-Covid-19.

I would bet on the Tier 1 brands... Trek, Specialized, Giant, and Cannondale along with the OEM drive systems from Bosch, Brose, Shimano, and Yamaha.

Vosper: Dealer count 2020

A deeper dive into the new dealer numbers reveals some interesting truths about brands, dealer populations and the industry's shifting balance of power.

www.bicycleretailer.com

 

[Taylor57]

Mobile, non-bricks and mortar bike services already exist and even service e-bikes.

https://www.velofix.com/

The LBS will have to find innovative ways to survive during these trying times. My LBS sells, rents and services ski equipment during the slow season in order to supplement the cycling side of their business revenue.

It's good to know the Velofix guy is available in my area. He gets pretty good Yelp reviews on ebikes. Here's hopin I dont have to meet him anytime soon...

 

[Dallant]

Wondering how the market will shake out in the medium term future.
I notice that carmakers are relatively few. A bunch of big names that everyone knows. Start up costs are too high and complicated

but what about ebike makers? There are so many companies out there who are basically ordering 100 units from overseas and having the factory slap a logo on it with zero design or engineering modifications. Can it possibly be a wild wild west forever?

I wonder if it could shape up to be like the computer market. Always a couple of big brands but still tons of room for basically no name brands because it is so trivial to get the hardware to build a computer these days.

if so then maintenance is a huge market opportunity if local bike shops aren’t able or willing to touch ebikes. It’s inconceivable that very many customers will want to maintain a bike themselves. I suspect that much like third party extended warranties for gadgets that eBay offers, it may be normal for people to buy a third party, real life, come to your house or take it to a nearby physical location repair warranty for these internet ordered e-bikes.

I disagree. Lots of carmakers that you probably haven’t heard of out there in lots of countries, just as the many ebike makers you’ve never heard of. Say what you want about Tesla, it has created a new sales model that a lot of electric vehicle companies will follow around the world.
The metamorphosis of personal e-vehicles will continue the blending of ebikes/ecars. Look for the cargo ebike model to eat more into the car/truck markets for local taxi/delivery services in bigger cities. I expect the bike biggies to absorb some of the smaller companies and their ideas but the self built ebike model will continue in some form as a lower cost model. Local support is going to continue to be a big issue as any brick & mortar shop will need to be flexible to survive. Nothing but guesses of course!

 

[Stefan Mikes]

My LBS sells, rents and services ski equipment during the slow season in order to supplement the cycling side of their business revenue.

Same in Poland. Many LBS that do not sell for big brands do the same.

 

[Deacon Blues]

Flatsix911, what do the numbers represent in the diagram you posted.

 

[Taylor57]

If you think about it, there aren't much movements in terms of how many companies are out there.

In North America, the batteries are pretty much set with Panasonic, LG and Samsung.
Although the overseas market might differ, for example, the batteries in ebikes in Japan are Panasonic, Toshiba and Hitachi.

Same with motor.. the mid motors are pretty much set with Yamaha, Bosch, Brose and Bafang in North America.
Panasonic and Bridgestone have their own motors, but that's again, overseas.

When you feel like you're overwhelmed with tons of "start up" ebike companies, they're typically Alibaba type ebikes anyways.
Same ingredients.. Bafang hub motor, Tektro brakes, Chinese frames from venders on Alibaba, Reention or Hailong batteries with LG or Samsung cells, etc.

And I notice a ton of duplication of parts and designs on the Chinese DTC bikes. There is probably just one huge factory crankin out every ebike you see on Amazon and Alibaba!

 

[AHicks]

I was into the thick of the computer scene when PC's first started becoming popular in the early 90's. Many MANY mfgr's, including thousands buying components and assembling PC's in their basements/garages (including me!). All that commotion settled out into just a few major manf's. Sound familiar?

My bet is the e-bike manf's will shake out/follow in a nearly identical manner, with the major component suppliers (e.g. Bafang, Tektro, etc.) still selling to the now, much more refined e-bike mfgr's.

What will be interesting to see (for me anyway), is if the e-bikes will turn into commodities like the PC's did, or if they will maintain individual identities, kinda like the car manf's have..... -Al

 

[Taylor57]

I was into the thick of the computer scene when PC started becoming popular in the early 90's. Many MANY mfgr's, including thousands buying components and assembling PC's in their basements/garages (including me!). All that commotion settled out into just a few major manf's. Sound familiar?

My bet is the e-bike manf's will shake out/follow in a nearly identical manner, with the major component suppliers (e.g. Bafang, Tektro, etc.) still selling to the now, much more refined e-bike mfgr's.

What will be interesting to see (for me anyway), is if the e-bikes will turn into commodities like the PC's did, or if they will maintain individual identities, kinda like the car manf's have..... -Al

Worked out ok for the Dell kid in his UT dorm room no?

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Flatsix911, what do the numbers represent in the diagram you posted.

The number of U.S. LBS that carry one, two, three or four major brands.

 

[FlatSix911]

The number of U.S. LBS that carry one, two, three or four major brands.

Thanks, I will go back and post the link.

 

[FlatSix911]

Here is a better graphic representation by Tier-1 Brand Market Share.

Rick Vosper: OK, so we have 7,000 bike shops. Now what?

New estimates show more than double the number of bike shops in the U.S. as previously thought. Here are the numbers behind those estimates, plus dealer share and what it all means for brands, retailers and, maybe, the future of the bicycle industry.

www.bicycleretailer.com

 

[Mike TowpathTraveler]

If you watch YouTube channel called Blue Monkey Bicycles, they said something about ebike industry becoming an easy cash grab.
Just mass produce ebikes in China and ship them to the US, do they need to care about after service and warranty? Not really. The bikes are out of their hands, they're on the other side of earth anyways.

They said there are legitimate online ebike sellers out there, but it is quite unfortunate these kinds of stuff do happen.

In addition, @Deleted Member 4210 said he noticed similar trends too. Just "start up" a new ebike company, ship them from China with new company names on it, and shut the company down when they get enough complaints, then make another "start up" company with new company name on it.

This forum is filled with posts from disgruntled first-time ebike buyers who bought this kind of ebike.....and were left hanging and out of a good bit of their money, after the sale.

 

[Dallant]

This forum is filled with posts from disgruntled first-time ebike buyers who bought this kind of ebike.....and were left hanging and out of a good bit of their money, after the sale.

What I find interesting is buyers here on the forum seem to pat each other on the back when they gamble like that vs spending a bit more from established businesses like a LBS. Clearly the odds are better at an LBS for most folks.

 

[Mike TowpathTraveler]

What I find interesting is buyers here on the forum seem to pat each other on the back when they gamble like that vs spending a bit more from established businesses like a LBS. Clearly the odds are better at an LBS for most folks.

Gamble is the correct word. Especially when this forum has information on hand that any new prospective ebike buyer can use and that is the Forum section dedicated to most every brand of ebike on the market. It really just takes a little time in reading about any bike line a buyer has in mind, before going all-in with a bike of questionable pedigree or back up support after the sale. I'm in agreement with you in regards to dealing first with an LBS if possible.

 

[AHicks]

A counterpoint if you will allow me. Many shops don't want anything to do with e-bikes. They don't want to talk about them, they don't sell them, and they refuse to work on them.

Many that do sell them get exotic prices for them. Prices that are tough to justify when there's an honest attempt to match their bikes with similar bikes available from the online DTC sellers. That's if the LBS even offers something you might be interested in.

I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one that's heard "we won't work on anything we didn't sell". Not a very endearing attitude or way to increase their customer base as far as I'm concerned. Some might even say it hints at incompetence....

The easiest way to justify paying the long dollar with a LBS is if you aren't able or are not interested in maintaining the bike yourself. Then you have no choice in the matter - unless you have a mobile service available. Those are proving to be pretty good options to dealing with an LBS.

For those that are able and willing to do their own maintenance, you DO have a choice when making the LBS or DTC call.

My point is, telling people that they SHOULD shop only at their LBS is telling only half the story. There are PLENTY of reasons dealing direct is not that bad a plan - as long as you've done your due diligence selecting one.

As far as being a "gamble" there are LBS's out there that have not so great reputations as well.

And I get the fact there are some really great people working for some really great shops out there. The problem is they are not that common, AND, shops like that can be weeks or months behind.....

 

[BET]

We have bought several e bikes from direct to consumer companies for less than $1500 each and we are happy with them. They are fine for our intended use, i.e., errands, recreational riding. My daughter uses hers for her short commute to work. We have access to several mobile bike shops and my husband is an engineer who I am convinced could fix anything with a motor or wheels. So far our bikes from Espin, Ride1up and Lectric have been fine. We still have our analog bikes and we are fine with routine bike maintenance. Finding routine accessories and maintenance items at reasonable prices has been easy. Customers like us are typical of new e bike purchasers I think. We have no interest in buying more expensive e bikes anymore than we are interested in buying expensive new cars. I drive a 2002 Subaru Outback with more than 150K miles and I am happy with it. We have no great hills and our weather is mild enough we can ride most of the year.

 

[Dallant]

A counterpoint if you will allow me. Many shops don't want anything to do with e-bikes. They don't want to talk about them, they don't sell them, and they refuse to work on them.

Many that do sell them get exotic prices for them. Prices that are tough to justify when there's an honest attempt to match their bikes with similar bikes available from the online DTC sellers. That's if the LBS even offers something you might be interested in.

I'm pretty sure I'm not the only one that's heard "we won't work on anything we didn't sell". Not a very endearing attitude or way to increase their customer base as far as I'm concerned. Some might even say it hints at incompetence....

The easiest way to justify paying the long dollar with a LBS is if you aren't able or are not interested in maintaining the bike yourself. Then you have no choice in the matter - unless you have a mobile service available. Those are proving to be pretty good options to dealing with an LBS.

For those that are able and willing to do their own maintenance, you DO have a choice when making the LBS or DTC call.

My point is, telling people that they SHOULD shop only at their LBS is telling only half the story. There are PLENTY of reasons dealing direct is not that bad a plan - as long as you've done your due diligence selecting one.

As far as being a "gamble" there are LBS's out there that have not so great reputations as well.

And I get the fact there are some really great people working for some really great shops out there. The problem is they are not that common, AND, shops like that can be weeks or months behind.....

Many shops do work with them and it isn’t telling half the ”story” since there are lots of these gambler stories here on this forum telling half (or less) of the story about how many fails they’ve encountered. Their egos prevent them from admitting the failures.
Brick and mortar shops who aren’t into ebikes are making a business decision. Those that are repping ebikes who cant or won’t work on brands they don’t sell are also making a business decision and I don’t blame them.
As a consumer in this higher tech world, I wouldn’t take my warranted car to any other dealer to be serviced if electronics was involved and I sure wouldn’t do my own work on one. Yet I still do my own light maintenance on one or two of my “fleet”. Same is true of my ebikes.
Bottom line is there’s lots of gambling going on and its human nature to not cop to all the losses going on. That’s the other half of the story we’re not hearing. There are lots of folks not willing to spend thousands with no real support in place and I’m one of them. I WILL spend more for that structure. I’ve talked (not emailed and hoped for a response) to at least 5 Trek shops within an hour or two of me that can and will sell me an ebike and work on it. I realize that limits my choices but I‘m happy with my choices so far.