China's five year plan includes ebikes

[Nirmala]

The government of China announced it's latest five year plan and it includes a pledge to " Promote new-energy vehicles and manufacturing of electric bikes. "

http://www.scmp.com/news/china/policies-politics/article/1875271/snapshot-chinas-next-five-year-plan

 

[George S.]

I'm hoping that planned spontaneous innovation and growth thing works out...

The paper, released by state-run Xinhua yesterday, was approved by the fifth plenum of the party's 18th Central Committee last Thursday.

"It's a very ambitious plan, which may reflect the present leadership's new ideas, in particular those of President Xi Jinping ," said Shen Jianguang, chief China economist with Mizuho Securities Asia. "There is a new focus on quality, innovation and 'green' development."

But innovation could not be planned as it was spontaneous by nature, Bank of Communications chief economist Hong Hao said. "Top-down government- planned innovation assumes that the government knows better than the market where future growth will be. It … may not achieve the desired results," said Hong, who is also the bank's managing director of research.

 

[Nirmala]

Government can play a key role in innovation and has many times according to a new book:
http://time.com/4089171/mariana-mazzucato/

 

[George S.]

http://www.scmp.com/tech/leaders-fo...under-peter-thiel-china-must-innovate-or-risk

Thiel discusses what China would have to do. He could be wrong, since many of his ideas are goofy. If you need new ideas, you need new ideas. When government says 'we will promote planned innovation' I just roll my eyes. You can do research, but it doesn't have to be terribly innovative. Apple has a 3D touch interface. Wow, I'm thrilled.

There's an interesting book about the Wright Brothers. I guess when they needed an engine, they more or less made one. They 'invented' the control surfaces that made controlled flight possible. Maybe it's just more understandable, more basic stuff. They stopped flying to fight patent cases. Book is by McCullough.

Interesting question whether there is all that much innovation in the West. There was a massive shift in the 2oth century. So much of what we do in the US is just financial maneuvering, dubbed innovation. You know, Central Bankers controlling interest rates, asset bubbles, shuffling paper assets. I don't know. Maybe things shift to Asia.

 

[Jim123]

Hi this is my 1st post at the site. I love Court's reviews and the information on the community bulletin board. Nirmala , I see in the article you referenced that China is going to ban all commercial logging and even urban tree replanting to new places. Wow, that is 1 way to protect the environment. George S., the promoting of E bikes doesn't have to be a centralized narrow agenda system. Like kick starter funding the Government could give grants to many Ebike companies to promote innovation. And like the U.S. and Europe do for Electric cars, China could offer consumers incentives for buying an Ebike. Advocacy(or promoting) is needed. Bike lanes and laws that make safer biking being an example. A snowball of restrictive central planning is not how the new Communism seems to be operating. What stifled in the old days may lead the way in innovation during modern times. Most Ebikes come from their anyway. It'll be great to seem them improve even quicker.

 

[one4torque]

From what I've seen NOTHING happens in China without the knowledge/consent of the central gov't.

They can dominate a mfg space because: they have large amts of capital, excessive cheap labor, "flexible" pollution laws, "flexible" accounting practices, and "flexible" pricing strutures when they use gov't owned vendors...... they can mfr at a loss for a long time without blinking an eye... and compete in an "unusual" fashion internationally.

The ebike filled a special niche in china..... in the last 10 years appears people want cars...... I wonder if ebike sales in china will wain with the shift to more western transport.

I think the thing the chinese mfr's are missing to sell "effectively" to int'l market and by-pass the middle-man in each country.... is a knowledge of overseas customer tastes/business practices...... I see some of the china-built bikes, and see they are off the mark in most cases...... they really need to hire some designers from the "target" market, and build to that market.......

pardon the long rant...... long winded post.

 

[Nirmala]

As I understand it, a lot of Western bike companies do their own design and then the bike is made in China, so it would seem you might be right that the missing piece for Chinese companies is a design team that can create a bike that competes with the ones designed in the West.

 

[one4torque]

Agree Nirm. The "design" element of a chinese designer VS western is soo different....... it's funny what one region thinks is cool can be SOO different than another region. It's almost comical.
Perhaps that's why toyota design center is in Cali.

 

[Jim123]

Maybe Germany has been missing the American design mark. The 350 and 250 watt systems that are required in Europe, just don't have the compunction that higher watt American designed systems have. 8fun the super common among Ebike manufacturers motor, has gone to a 1000 watt design available. Wikipedia rules on Ebikes has the Federal standard as 750 watt. But the small print says that States can't have requirements that are lower that the Federal standard for bikes being sold (letting them ride roads or trails the States can set). 1 State had a 200 watt max requirement. My State, Washington allows 1000 watt motors 20 mph top (no 28 mph option even with pedal assist). But in WA under moped rules, you can have 1500 watt / 30 mph vehicle for road but not on any bike areas. The 1500 watt is "braking horsepower". Mopeds used to cause many accidents when they were popular. Having to engage a clutch and wait for the shaft to stop the vehicle from being pulled into traffic when stopping (probably on crappy drum brakes in those days when the laws were made). Probably where the braking 2 hp (same as 1500) rule came from. This puts limits on obese people from being able to enjoy Ebikes. Handicapped and obese people would benefit from laws the worried about speed instead of horsepower. Electric bikes shut power to the motor down way quicker than a 2 stroke motor would. Maybe America needs it's standards improved also lol. one4torque no worries on my side about your long post. I love making many points at 1 time also lol.