Tour '25

[stompandgo]

Jonas did exactly what he wanted to do. He has a shot at yellow tomorrow. I'll be watching in the car on the way home.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

'll be watching in the car on the way home.

Hopefully while texting. Can't be too safe!
;^}

 

[stompandgo]

I'm a passenger for this trip.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

I'm a passenger for this trip.

Figured as much but couldn't resist giving you a hard time.

 

[stompandgo]

Please do!!!

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Pogi's gonna need a bigger jersey closet.

Today's Stage 5 TT was the inverse of the 2023 Stage 16 TT, where Jonas picked up 1'38" on Pogi and effectively clinched the GC.

Nothing's clinched yet in 2025. Till today, Jonas had been more or less keeping up with Pogi but looked wiped out afterward every time. Pogi, in contrast, barely looked ruffled. And Jonas was wiped out again today. Hoping things pick up for him in the mountains.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Was v surprised at Jonas dropping that much time. I had been wondering if in this poker game, Pog had been deliberately attacking, appearing strong to build fear in Jonas's head before the big climbs, but in the race of truth Jonas really struggled. Even Remco will be shocked at how little time he clawed back on Pog, though second place must be on his mind if Jonas is below par. Also Kevin V from Arkea continues to impress. Van Der Poel looks knackered as well, was surprising how he had no legs for yesterday's sprint. Maybe he felt toady to not kill himself but save himself for Green jersey finishes.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

Also Kevin V from Arkea continues to impress.

Ditto. For anyone interested, he got a good bit of screen time in the latest TdF Unchained.

 

[stompandgo]

There's a lot of racing left, but today was disappointing.

 

[stompandgo]

This is some incredible racing. Attack after attack at crazy high speeds over rolling terrain.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

I'm over the moon with Healy's win! YEEEEESSSSSS!!!

I'd this one earmarked for a while, perfect parcours for Ben but then I switched on and saw the royalty in that breakaway group and my heart sank. Normally Healy would attack on a steep hill and Normandy is perfect hunting ground for this type of attack. And he has to attack because he has the sprinting prowess of an asthmatic snail. But with this group there would be no getting away on a hill - MVDP, Eddie Dunbar, Quinn Simmons, Yates, Storer - these would all be doing the same thing all excellent climbers or puncheurs. Next thing I know with 42Km to play, Healy attacks on the flat (or a bump) and he's GONE. Once he got 30 seconds I knew they wouldn't catch him and then the chasers broke apart anyway. Glorious win. 201km & 3,500 metres. He's 24. Grew up in the UK in the Midlands but all four grandparents hail from Cork so he came out for Ireland as a junior- he's a Cork man at heart, Up the Rebel county! And Dunbar, another Corkman gets 4th- the only two Irish men in the whole race. Just brilliant. .

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

What a day for Ben Healy! You just never know who's gonna pop up and win a stage.

MVDP is not a Grand Tour rider.

Sent him another copy of the memo after Stage 1. Guess he's not checking his email. But as you said, there's still a lot of racing ahead.
;^}

That final 14% climb really took a toll. Never saw Pogi as winded as he was in the early post-race interview, and MVDP looked totally spent right afterward, just sitting by himself, clutching his water bottle, and staring into space.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

and MVDP looked totally spent right afterward, just sitting by himself, clutching his water bottle, and staring into space.

As I said yesterday something feels a bit off with Van der Poel. Could it be the heat? The shock of Philipsen brutally out of the tour? He just seems lacking that killer finish last 3 days. Of course this is the toughest race in the world and 3 incredible tough and different stages so it might just be that. Even though there was a lot of climbing today and he's a big fella, this stage felt like a Spring Classic that he normally eats for breakfast. Except for the heat in July not the frost in April.

...You just never know who's gonna pop up and win a stage.

It wasn't random, this was carefully planned for months. Because he can't sprint and he won't win in the high alps (though never say never) he has few parcours that suit his long breakaways. This was target number one. But to actually pull it off is amazing. The confidence he'll get from this.

Also interesting in looking at team set up. Look at Dunbar for comparison. Dunbar is 26 but on his first grand tour only now. The reason? He was a mountain domestique for Ineos for several years and in that hothouse competitive world was never considered for the Tour (he also had some bad crashes ruling him out.) He finally left them and now, allowed to race for himself at the small Aussie team Jayco, he finishes 7th in the Giro and last year wins two really impressive mountain stages at the Vuelta. He would have been paid well at Ineos but man those big teams buy your slavery to just ride for the Pog or Bernal etc and you can lose the best years of your career. Ineos at the time were snapping up every young mountain goat desperate after Bernal's bad crash and watching the rise of Pog & Jonas. They were stuffed full of young climbing hopefuls and Dunbar, unglamorous, quiet and pretty old skool (not big on socials for instance) got overlooked. Contrast that to Healy who early on got snapped up by EF and they seemed to realise he's a bit of an oddball gypsy pirate rider and they seemed to have let him do his own thing. And it's really paid off, especially with Carapaz out of the tour, they've got a precious stage win and also definitely a future Classics winner (He's already come 2nd at the Amstel Gold race and 3rd at Leige.)

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

and MVDP looked totally spent right afterward, just sitting by himself, clutching his water bottle, and staring into space.

As I said yesterday something feels a bit off with Van der Poel. Could it be the heat? The shock of Philipsen brutally out of the tour? He just seems lacking that killer finish last 3 days. Of course this is the toughest race in the world and 3 incredible tough and different stages so it might just be that. Even though there was a lot of climbing today and he's a big fella, this stage felt like a Spring Classic that he normally eats for breakfast. Except for the heat in July not the frost in April.

...You just never know who's gonna pop up and win a stage.

It wasn't random, this was carefully planned for months. Because he can't sprint and he won't win in the high alps (though never say never) he has few parcours that suit his long breakaways. This was target number one. But to actually pull it off is amazing. The confidence he'll get from this.

Also interesting in looking at team set up. Look at Dunbar for comparison. Dunbar is 26 but on his first grand tour only now. The reason? He was a mountain domestique for Ineos for several years and in that hothouse competitive world was never considered for the Tour (he also had some bad crashes ruling him out.) He finally left them and now, allowed to race for himself at the small Aussie team Jayco, he finishes 7th in the Giro and last year wins two really impressive mountain stages at the Vuelta. He would have been paid well at Ineos but man those big teams buy your slavery to just ride for the Pog or Bernal etc and you can lose the best years of your career. Ineos at the time were snapping up every young mountain goat desperate after Bernal's bad crash and watching the rise of Pog & Jonas. They were stuffed full of young climbing hopefuls and Dunbar, unglamorous, quiet and pretty old skool (not big on socials for instance) got overlooked. Contrast that to Healy who early on got snapped up by EF and they seemed to realise he's a bit of an oddball gypsy pirate rider and they seemed to have let him do his own thing. And it's really paid off, especially with Carapaz out of the tour, they've got a precious stage win and also definitely a future Classics winner (He's already come 2nd at the Amstel Gold race and 3rd at Leige.)

You guys are clearly watching this at a whole 'nother level. Really appreciate the insights. Hats off to all the hopefuls who've managed to survive this meat grinder of a team process.

Maybe you can help me understand why I'm seeing so many names in the stage top 20 lists that I don't recall ever seeing in 2023 and 2024.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

why I'm seeing so many names in the stage top 20 lists that I don't recall ever seeing in 2023 and 2024.

Not sure about this. To be honest I look for names that resonate, riders Ive heard about, Irish or English speaking ones, young guns making a mark, and there is a lot of French, Italian etc domestiques I'm not that up on. But not sure why this year would feel different. I mean we haven't hit the mountains yet and of course that's like a whole other race. Maybe the more familiar mountain goats names will pop out more for you.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Two photos from Wednesday, the Caen time trial.

Photo: Szymon Gruchalski Cycling

Photo: Joanna Gruchalska (his wife).

 

[stompandgo]

What a day for Ben Healy! You just never know who's gonna pop up and win a stage.


Sent him another copy of the memo after Stage 1. Guess he's not checking his email. But as you said, there's still a lot of racing ahead.
;^}

That final 14% climb really took a toll. Never saw Pogi as winded as he was in the early post-race interview, and MVDP looked totally spent right afterward, just sitting by himself, clutching his water bottle, and staring into space.

I did not say that MVDP could not win stages, or wear yellow. There's been nothing even close to a Cat 2 climb yet, and Le Tour has multiple HC climbs in it. Cat 4-3-2-1-HC.

Healy did great today. He escaped after doing a ton of work in the break. Simmons smoked that sprint. I was so happy for him. Great for Lidl/Trek and USA racing.

Again, Jonas did just what he needed to do. The issue for him is less about his peak fitness, and more about the fitness of Jorgensen and Kuss. The best way to beat TP is to attack him on the long, sustained Cat1/HC climbs over and over again. That's how he won the two Tours. Even TP cannot handle a half dozen flat out accelerations on a long climb.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

I did not say that MVDP could not win stages, or wear yellow. There's been nothing even close to a Cat 2 climb yet, and Le Tour has multiple HC climbs in it. Cat 4-3-2-1-HC.

Healy did great today. He escaped after doing a ton of work in the break. Simmons smoked that sprint. I was so happy for him. Great for Lidl/Trek and USA racing.

Again, Jonas did just what he needed to do. The issue for him is less about his peak fitness, and more about the fitness of Jorgensen and Kuss. The best way to beat TP is to attack him on the long, sustained Cat1/HC climbs over and over again. That's how he won the two Tours. Even TP cannot handle a half dozen flat out accelerations on a long climb.

Great to have you and @Rás Cnoic sharing your deep knowledge and understanding of pro racing here. Makes watching it vastly more interesting.

 

[Rás Cnoic]

Great to have you and @Rás Cnoic sharing your deep knowledge and understanding of pro racing here. Makes watching it vastly more interesting.

I quite enjoy the machine gun delivery of ex pro Chris Horner as he dissects the previous day's stage. Opinionated but funny, (knuckleheads!) good for figuring out daily tactics on the road that might be missed.

 

[Stefan Mikes]

Stage 6

All photos by Joanna Gruchalska, Szymon Gruchalski Cycling