Will ebikes really lead the EV revolution?

[Ken M]

I think they'll need to be more commuters on bikes/ebikes before a lot of infrastructure to happen. I've never had a problem finding a place to park my ebike or find a viable way to get to where I needed to go but I agree that some improved separation from car traffic would be ideal in some cases (sometimes roads have almost no shoulder or bike lane allowance so there is some danger).

 

[gorse]

Just wait until climate change really kicks in, and gas prices really start to pinch...
Down under the perpetual drought and raging bush fires are making people realise the time to act is now...

I think they'll need to be more commuters on bikes/ebikes before a lot of infrastructure to happen. I've never had a problem finding a place to park my ebike or find a viable way to get to where I needed to go but I agree that some improved separation from car traffic would be ideal in some cases (sometimes roads have almost no shoulder or bike lane allowance so there is some danger).

 

[Mass Deduction]

Sadly most people in North America view bikes as leisure and recreation products. eBikes should change that but even in the EBR forums you see most comments that the ebike was purchased for recreation and not transportation / commuting. I do think some of this is because most ebikes being sold here are not suitable for transportation.
[...]

I think it changes a great deal from one community to another. Areas with a history of bicycles being used for transportation, like where I live, are seeing a huge take-up of e-bikes for transportation. A significant proportion of our e-bike sales are to commuters. It's complementing and accelerating the popularity of bicycles for transportation here.

Areas where few people use muscle bikes for transportation, e-bikes are going to be slower to catch on for transportation too I suspect.

 

[Mass Deduction]

[...]
By 2025, expect to see 12 million electric vehicles being sold worldwide each year—and more than 40 million electric bikes.
[...]

Someone should tell Car and Driver magazine that bicycles and e-bikes *are* vehicles. They're recreational vehicles for some, and transportation vehicles for others, but they're vehicles either way. So if there are 12 million electric cars being sold, and 40 million electric bicycles, then that's a total of 52 million electric vehicles.

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Not sure if the article intended this, but from a global basis, 80% of the world's population, can't afford a gasoline car, let alone an EV. However, a considerable chunk of the world's population already uses bikes, and it's not such a big jump to electric bikes. In China for example, many they sell for less than the equivalent of $400 US dollars. If an ebike is helping you as an American bike rider, ride more than you would on a human only powered bike, imagine what it's doing to help people who already rely on bikes or the equivalent wheeled vehicles that are pedal powered. From that perspective and getting outside of our own myopic view of the world, it's very easy to see Electric bikes leading the way in terms of sheer numbers, and then as they evolve and battery prices keep on dropping or get better range, we see many more light electric vehicles that are part human powered but may look like something other than the traditional 2 wheeled 'bikes.'. The US is a very small part of the world's population, so it won't really matter what we do directly, here versus the rest of the world, but indirectly, we may be able to actually be an enabler and help everyone. Given that most of the rest of the world, simply can't afford the luxury of a car, gas or EV, or the infrastructure to support it, I personally say 'more power to them' if an electric bike helps them go further or get to their place of work easier, or get food or water resources easier, or expands their work opportunities and raises their standard of living. If they are off the grid or too far away, solar power is definitely doable for them to charge these lithium batteries. And solar keeps getting cheaper every year. If the US keeps adopting more solar, and more ebikes, and that helps prices come down even more than we have seen already, so that more of the world's population can become more self-sustaining, then that in of itself is a good enough reason for all of us here in the US, to purchase an ebike. If not for our own direct benefit, do it for the globe, and also use them to cut down on car rides, car use and CO2 emissions. Every ebike ride versus a car ride, can really begin to add up ! Try that maybe instead of just recreational use. Baby steps.

 

[slayer1962]

Do it for the world? The Us is still the largest economy in the world so we are not a small part of the huge world. we are in fact leaders in technology for most of the world. People in the US will buy them if they work for them not because someone in China has to walk to work. Not looking to be mean but realistic

 

[Marci jo]

Not sure if the article intended this, but from a global basis, 80% of the world's population, can't afford a gasoline car, let alone an EV. However, a considerable chunk of the world's population already uses bikes, and it's not such a big jump to electric bikes. In China for example, many they sell for less than the equivalent of $400 US dollars. If an ebike is helping you as an American bike rider, ride more than you would on a human only powered bike, imagine what it's doing to help people who already rely on bikes or the equivalent wheeled vehicles that are pedal powered. From that perspective and getting outside of our own myopic view of the world, it's very easy to see Electric bikes leading the way in terms of sheer numbers, and then as they evolve and battery prices keep on dropping or get better range, we see many more light electric vehicles that are part human powered but may look like something other than the traditional 2 wheeled 'bikes.'. The US is a very small part of the world's population, so it won't really matter what we do directly, here versus the rest of the world, but indirectly, we may be able to actually be an enabler and help everyone. Given that most of the rest of the world, simply can't afford the luxury of a car, gas or EV, or the infrastructure to support it, I personally say 'more power to them' if an electric bike helps them go further or get to their place of work easier, or get food or water resources easier, or expands their work opportunities and raises their standard of living. If they are off the grid or too far away, solar power is definitely doable for them to charge these lithium batteries. And solar keeps getting cheaper every year. If the US keeps adopting more solar, and more ebikes, and that helps prices come down even more than we have seen already, so that more of the world's population can become more self-sustaining, then that in of itself is a good enough reason for all of us here in the US, to purchase an ebike. If not for our own direct benefit, do it for the globe, and also use them to cut down on car rides, car use and CO2 emissions. Every ebike ride versus a car ride, can really begin to add up ! Try that maybe instead of just recreational use. Baby steps.

Well said Mike’s E-bikes. As we move father in the 21st century we will see a plethora of electric vehicles, some looking like a bike, some a blend of a bike and “other”. It will be exciting to see!

 

[Deleted member 4210]

Do it for the world? The Us is still the largest economy in the world so we are not a small part of the huge world. we are in fact leaders in technology for most of the world. People in the US will buy them if they work for them not because someone in China has to walk to work. Not looking to be mean but realistic

The US buys very few ebikes compared to the rest of the developed world. The US is way behind in adopting ebikes. The US has not at all led in any of the ebike technology development. Yes, US based firms are now involved. And yes your post was quite snarky and typical of US arrogance in a lot of areas.

 

[Cowlitz]

I cannot see it happening here. I think folks would ride horses before they'd ride any kind of bike. It is the land of big, diesel pickups and small fart cars. We have no bike infrastructure. None. Right now I won't ride because it is snowing and roads are slick.

I have Europe envy.

 

[Mass Deduction]

I cannot see it happening here. I think folks would ride horses before they'd ride any kind of bike. It is the land of big, diesel pickups and small fart cars. We have no bike infrastructure. None. Right now I won't ride because it is snowing and roads are slick.

I have Europe envy.

Europe has the benefit of denser communities for sure, meaning shorter travel distances on average. But they sell a lot of e-bikes even in parts of Europe that get a lot of snow, so perhaps an analysis of how they do that would be of value.

I don't blame you on the snow front. I'm lucky enough to live in a part of Canada where we rarely get snow (heck, the temperature rarely drops below freezing here). I only ride when the temperature is above zero (Celsius). But I'm not afraid of the rain, I went for a ride in a downpour this morning. I have cycling rain gear that does an impressive job, I barely felt the rain on my ride.

There is some cycling infrastructure in the U.S., but its availability is very regional, often varying starkly from one city to the next. I think the U.S. adoption of e-bikes is something that will happen slowly and will happen in a targeted way. People who live closer to work, or people who live closer to cycling amenities, will be more likely to adopt it.

There's an "if you build it, they will come" element to cycling infrastructure. Local government built a huge trail here called the Galloping Goose Regional Trail, and casual cycling exploded in response. It's 55km (34 miles) long. Few people were clamouring for an amenity like that but, once we had it, use of it ramped up rapidly.

 

[slayer1962]

snarky or realistic? Th point was for America or anyone else it has to work. Because an e bike works for some means nothing to others.
I for one like the idea of commuting to work on an e bike but it does not work for me . I travel 150 miles a day round trip .
I have been trying to get a job closer to home but until then I am stuck in a car ( suv) for work. My SUV gets 25-26 mpg .
I do use the e bike for the store runs close by and i often use to visit friends now .
I have no issue with driving in the cold and some snow , ice is a deal breaker. Yes Americans are spoiled and we like it.
I tow my twin engine boat with a diesel pick up truck, ride atvs and motorcycles for fun. I guess we were raised to strive for a big diesel truck

 

[Cowlitz]

The variation of infrastructure is amazing. I live in a biggish small town that is a hub for not too serious medical treatment and adequate shopping. It is surrounded by orchards, ranches and tribal land.

I go to Oregon and a very small town/burg that doesn't even have a gas station has.....a bike lane going down each side of the street. This was on the east side of the state in the wheat growing country.

I think Oregon funds and encourages bicycling. Warshington does not--at least on this side of the state. An official state bike route goes through here and I sure won't ride it because much of it is on highway with no shoulders. Saw a bike almost get crunched on part of it last summer. Amazingly, the log truck was in control and slowed down. The pickup following the log truck that was pulling a trailer did not and almost got the bike--and then us. This was in an area of sharp turns coming down a mountain pass.

It isn't just the infrastructure, it is the psyche of the drivers too.

 

[slayer1962]

cowlitz , you are 100 percent correct. By my job you would have to have a death wish to ride a motorcycle ( which i did for 40 years) no less an e bike.
People in Northern NJ are brutal even to cars and trucks forget a 2 wheel bike.
I live in southern NJ and feel comfortable on all but the largest highways ( bicycles are illegal on them anyhow)
A trip to the store is pleasant on my e bike. One correction its the psycho of the drivers sometimes lol

 

[gorse]

New Zealand isn't that different to US - a nation of car-owners that are actually owned by their cars. People that sit in their cars in congested cities think that building bigger roads is the only answer, when in fact a car is a terrible way of getting around a city, as anyone with an bike/ebike knows. Building cycle friendly infrastructure always seems to meet resistance from the dinosaur lobby, but the payback is pretty quick once it's in place.

 

[Alex M]

I doubt it. It won't be anywhere near like China, maybe similar to Japan.

I couldn't find that user age group survey from a few months ago but IIRC the majority were recreation focused old timers. Old timers with coin that is.

You may have a few commuters but never a whole lot.

For a youngish worker bee, add up the cost of a car, insurance, maintenance, parking, grid lock commuter traffic and they will still prefer it over erratic crowded buses or unpleasant subways (Wet seats! Yuck!) or dodging traffic on a bike.

I agree on most points. They suggest a universal scenario for the world and talk about "world's roads", - there is no such thing.

It won't be anywhere like China (in the US or Europe) because it's not China. Most people in China can't afford a car. In Europe it's different, often better pedestrian or biking environment than in the US, better public transit as well, but not everywhere and it won't be everywhere in our lifetime. But then, they don't specify what part of the world they are talking about.

True, in developed countries there is big recreational market for seniors who have enough money and want to remain mobile but can't do this with a conventional bike. They will continue using a car for shopping and other errands when it is safer and more comfortable, and in many-many areas in the US and Canada it is. Public transit will often be their choice when it's more convenient than driving (or cheaper, considering heavily subsidized seniors fare).

Ebike commuters are likely in the majority in China and Japan (relatively to ebike recreational use, not relatively to cars and transit). There is not much of disposable income in China, and besides, the prevailing mentality is to work and tend to the families, children and grandchildren, rather than having fun "just for fun of it".

 

[rich c]

China may still be a communist country but they have DMV and insurance industries that want their piece of the pie to ensure they get their guaranteed pensions even at the expense of making ebikes less attractive for real transportation.

If the US went with the >400W/48V/25kph as the legal limit before a rider had to pay motorcycle registration and insurance fees, ebike sales would plummet. Not that anyone at DMV or insurance companies would care. Sorry I'm picking on people in those jobs but I'm sure you know my claims are legit - if it has wheels you guys want a piece of the pie and simply ignore that we need human scale transportation that supplements car usage a lot more than you guys need increased pensions and pay (would be enjoyable to debate an insurance executive on this because all they can think about is their pension and bonus money).

Anyone at DMV? Those employees deserve every penny they can get. I have no idea how they can muster the effort to go to that job everyday. The stress at that place has to generate the most unhealthy group in America. I can't imagine a worse day to day job!

 

[slayer1962]

Gorse i agree some bike lanes and some charging stations would help a lot. I commute way too far now but some day i will be closer to home and enjoy the e bike freedom.

 

[CrossfitCommute]

I believe the solution, in part anyway, will be stations where the batteries are swapped out with the customer being in and out in minutes.

 

[Mass Deduction]

I believe the solution, in part anyway, will be stations where the batteries are swapped out with the customer being in and out in minutes.

Your suggestion is a little like the propane tank thing, where you bring in your empty propane tank and get a different tank (filled with propane) in return. Not sure about elsewhere, but that's a common model for propane tank filling around these parts. They certify the tanks coming in, recycle or refurbish the old ones as necessary, and refill the tanks that still have enough life left in them for other customers.

I'd *love* that model with e-bikes. Each charge of an e-bike battery is a negligible cost. An e-bike battery costs hundreds of dollars, but gets thousands of useful charges and costs pennies of electricity per charge. So the electricity and wear and tear on an e-bike battery might cost less than a dollar a charge, and people would pay a lot more than that if it saved them dropping $600+ each on buying additional batteries.

But whereas propane tanks and hookups are pretty similar, e-bike batteries are not. So that would get in the way of such a plan. A pity, as it's really appealing to me.

 

[slayer1962]

I would say even $5 would be a good deal in a pinch ( charge at home other times?