Will 20$/ barrel oil, 1$ /gallon stop people from buying an ebike ?

[Ebiker01]

In Italy they gave by law a 60% rebate check to buy a bike or ebike that costs up to 1.500Eu . People who never rode are buying bikes there and there are fights over buying them !!
But also many poorer people don't have the upfront money. The check comes a little later from the gov.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Imagine if they would do this in America ?? The biking and ebiking would explode in popularity.

 

[J.R.]

In Italy they gave by law a 60% rebate check to buy a bike or ebike that costs up to 1.500Eu . People who never rode are buying bikes there and there are fights over buying them !!
But also many poorer people don't have the upfront money. The check comes a little later from the gov.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Imagine if they would do this in America ?? The biking and ebiking would explode in popularity.

April 2020 bike sales in the US were $1 billion dollars for the month. I'm not sure how much bigger it could explode?

Bike market skyrockets, with sales up 75% in April

PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (BRAIN) — U.S. cycling sales through all retail channels grew 75% in April to a total of about $1 billion in retail sales for the month, according to The NPD Group. NPD said April was the first month since NPD began tracking the cycling market that sales have reached $1...

www.bicycleretailer.com

There are bike and ebike shortages across the country. I've seen big box stores that usually have dozens of bikes on display that are literally empty. I asked a clerk and she told me bikes are sold as soon as they hit the floor.

 

[Handlebars]

Fracking firms like Chesapeake are lining up for bankruptcy protection as I type this. Big coal powered electricity plants already did so, along with other 100 year old tech. I won't bet on the past.

There is the "political force" past, and there is the "technological fit" past. They are not always the same. For example, if a community chooses by light produced per watt of power, the choice would be for modern light bulbs by consideration of political ideals regarding power usage. That is because they are considering heat as an unwanted by-product. In cold regions it isn't unwanted waste, it's a very safe more energy efficient light and heat appliance. Canada did the figuring only politically, when outlawing incandescents and bringing in the mercury... as if that isn't old fashioned and unwanted environmentally unfriendly and unfriendly in the home.

 

[Art Deco]

There is the "political force" past, and there is the "technological fit" past. They are not always the same. For example, if a community chooses by light produced per watt of power, the choice would be for modern light bulbs by consideration of political ideals regarding power usage. That is because they are considering heat as an unwanted by-product. In cold regions it isn't unwanted waste, it's a very safe more energy efficient light and heat appliance. Canada did the figuring only politically, when outlawing incandescents and bringing in the mercury... as if that isn't old fashioned and unwanted environmentally unfriendly and unfriendly in the home.

I don't follow all of that but I can say that I have a bucketfull of mercury bulbs that will need to buried with my ashes because there is no reasonable way to get rid of them. They are like nuclear waste.

 

[arcom]

It is now @31$.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

That was in March. Today it’s $43.

 

[Art Deco]

Oil supply is going to occilate with price. The prediction of a smooth curve like the drawing below never occurs. It gets bumpy. Notice that nuclear never took off, etc.

 

[Handlebars]

I don't follow all of that but I can say that I have a bucketfull of mercury bulbs that will need to buried with my ashes because there is no reasonable way to get rid of them. They are like nuclear waste.

Governments doing the globalist bidding for energy conservation forced everyone into helping to increase mercury pollution by outlawing incandescent bulbs. That was a politically driven tech change. Rooms can be warmed quite a bit by incandescent lighting and it's not necessarily wasted heat nor heat that needs to be removed by air conditioning. Canadian officials "forgot" to calculate the heat as an energy savings for the cold regions and seasons as they weighed the positives and negatives on energy use when they decided to outlaw incandescent bulbs. It was politically-driven tech change, a forced change-over done for environmental reasons that did not consider mercury to be as bad as carbon.

Big coal powered electricity plants already did so, along with other 100 year old tech. I won't bet on the past.

Coal is very competitive aside from political pressure. It wouldn't be in the "the past" category, otherwise. As countries become wealthier they switch to cleaner tech by consumer choices instead of by governmental force.

This is the way it happened this is the actual history of single family home heating fuel choices.
Dung and wood >Brown coal > Black coal > Diesel Oil > High Pressure Natural Gas > Electricity

Toronto Harbourfront area 1912..on a bad day

Glasgow

 

[Art Deco]

Dung and wood? I heat with firewood. In a modern EPA top class stove, backed with a microsplit if I'm lazy. Not exactly burning cow patties. If all you need is heat, electricity is not an efficient way to get it in central PA.

 

[Handlebars]

Dung and wood? I heat with firewood. In a modern EPA top class stove, backed with a microsplit if I'm lazy.

I'm not talking about your personal choice. If you WERE a dungburner it wouldnt change the societal facts of the progression due to consumer preference for "cleaner" fuel where it's available and within the budget. If dung fuel became cleaner and easier with less installation problem than solar, and all within the budget ... the consumer would choose it. What if dung from the washroom could be routed through a cleaning and alteration process then to furnace or stove? You'd stop burning trees...so long as you ate a lot.

 

[J.R.]

I don't follow all of that but I can say that I have a bucketfull of mercury bulbs that will need to buried with my ashes because there is no reasonable way to get rid of them. They are like nuclear waste.

Check with your county waste authority. York County has a residential hazmat day every year. I've taken all my 8' florescent tubes for disposal the last couple years. Anything with mercury they give you a $5 Lowes gift card and disposal is free for county residents.

 

[Ebiker01]

Is nice to see this thread getting some profund and serious discussions.
Oil is at a max. 3years from it's expiration date. Meaning the majority of oil produced for shipping /travel industry ( ships and airplanes fuel) will be useless.
A lot of cruise ships are @scrao yards and Boeing will join them soon.

It will never go above 50$ again, they are just artificially keeping it @40$ now but is not sustainable.
How can it be 40$ when most of the air travel is at 20-30%rates compared with the pre covid era ? And even the planes that are flying now, they CONSUME A LOT LESS FUEL.. There are 15-30 passengers now inside not 300. Some planes are going nowhere but in a circle for 500$/ticket.

Back then (pre covid era) the oil price, it should have been at least 150$ , based on the present dynamics and ratio ? It was sooo cheap one could say lol...

Lastly the newer 4860Tesla battery can do 15.000cycles with min. degradation. Those could actually work for an electric smaller plane amd they would definitely work for ferry boats , big or small.
Also there are wind turbines being buit that are 50stories high, better solar panels.
And also Plastic bags are banned . In Ny . In Nj. Soon in many other places. Crude oil is used for making trillions of them.

 

[Art Deco]

We are at the peak of the cheap oil that we can afford to just throw in a furnace or an internal combustion engine and burn up. The cheap stuff is gone, but half of all of that ever was is still in the ground even at peak oil. Same oil, different price

Oil is the feedstock for tires, lubricants, most plastics and all modern agriculture. Can't link from tablet but search 'green room' for more.

 

[Ebiker01]

tires, lubricants, most plastics

this ones could be made from other materials .

 

[Art Deco]

this ones could be made from other materials .

Of course. Most can be made from some other materials. just not profitably.

 

[ChezCheese:)]

My biggest motive of buying an ebike was to save money.

I was getting tired of gas prices, so yes, it will affect people's decisions.

I would not have bought an ebike if it wasn't for high gas prices.

But if gas prices go down low enough, will you stop riding?

 

[J.R.]

Of course. Most can be made from some other materials. just not profitably.

Henry's Hemp Hotrod

Driving under the influence

 

[Art Deco]

Henry's Hemp Hotrod

Driving under the influence

Very cool. Ford was so far ahead of his time that we have almost caught up with his thinking today.

 

[J.R.]

Very cool. Ford was so far ahead of his time that we have almost caught up with his thinking today.

Seems all geniuses have to be a little weird and crazy. Search 'Fordlandia'.

 

[Art Deco]

Seems all geniuses have to be a little weird and crazy. Search 'Fordlandia'.

Steve Jobs. Bill Gates. Elon Musk. "Unstable geniuses" We need more of 'em.

 

[ChezCheese:)]

If you're hypothetically saying if gas goes down to 4 cents a gallon like in Venezuela, then yes I will stop riding an ebike.

Now, you see, I am not going to stop riding my ebike, regardless of the price of gas, because I feel better both during and after riding my bike. Healthier, more energized, more alive. I don't want to sell that off for any price (per gal). Whatever the price of gas is, I can afford to drive, but the way I feel health and energy-wise from riding a bike -- that's priceless.