The Tariff Questions?

[Ebiker33]

So we all know there are already Tariffs on Ebikes coming out of Asia.
The rhetoric from the incoming American administration(please stay on topic no matter which way you feel) is more tariffs on everything to replace other taxes.
At what point does Ebike manufacturing look at moving to America.
Can they get around it by just getting the frames done in Asia and the rest of the buildout is the done in the USA?

To label a product as “Made in the USA” and potentially avoid tariffs on imported components, at least 55-75% of the manufacturing cost should typically be attributable to U.S.-sourced parts and labor, but specifics can vary by industry and regulatory body.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

Since we have no real details about how tariffs will be implemented or what the real objectives of having tariffs would be we can't really predict anything.

 

[jabberwocky]

At what point does Ebike manufacturing look at moving to America.

In all likelihood, continuing to manufacture in Asia and increasing prices to cover the tariffs will still be much cheaper than manufacturing mass market stuff in the USA. Its unlikely to really change where things are made, just make stuff more expensive, especially at the low end.

 

[Mike_V]

Would you know from all the mention of the word tariff, and so many Customs Brokers working that there would be a consultant on every TV network.
Because this revenue is paid on ALL merchandise imported into the US - there is an exemption of this tax or duty for individuals in the US that does not exist in many countries.
REF:
Harmonized Tariff Schedule
"2024 HTS Revision 9
"The Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States (HTS) sets out the tariff rates and statistical categories for all merchandise imported into the United States. The HTS is based on the international Harmonized System, which is the global system of nomenclature applied to most world trade in goods."
hts.usitc.gov/

 

[PedalUma]

What did Ronald Regan think about free trade and the elimination of tariffs? What about when your bike shop needs a part that is not made around here? And will never be made around here?

 

[Roamers]

#1 buy american whenever possible
#2 on another forum, a member was a clothing importer (Russia) and described what a 10% tariff would mean to consumers; basically nothing. He indicated a ~25% tarrif would force him to increase prices. Basically on higher margin items, importers would eat the increase. Remember, tarrif isn't on retail price; tarrif is not a VAT.
#3 i can see how tariffs would bother people that don't mind the slave labor concept in China.

 

[dodgeman]

I agree, hard to predict what if any tariffs will be on e bikes. American made? Is there one? I don’t honestly know either way.

 

[jabberwocky]

American made? Is there one? I don’t honestly know either way.

There are US made frame/component companies, but they are generally small boutique brands (like Moots frames or Chris King hubs/headsets). Pretty much all mass market bikes use components made overseas. Like, Shimano has factories in several countries (Japan, China, Indonesia, etc) and those factories use materials from several other countries themselves. Predicting how tarriffs/taxes will impact pricing really depends on what gets taxed, how much and from what countries but its a pretty safe bet that prices are going to go up across the bike industry. Maybe a little, maybe a lot. Even companies that have options from non-tarriffed countries aren't going to be able to work around them; moving production from China to Indonesia isn't just something you can snap your fingers and do, especially if everyone else is trying to do the same thing.

#2 on another forum, a member was a clothing importer (Russia) and described what a 10% tariff would mean to consumers; basically nothing. He indicated a ~25% tarrif would force him to increase prices. Basically on higher margin items, importers would eat the increase. Remember, tarrif isn't on retail price; tarrif is not a VAT.

Its worth noting that the markup on clothing is astronomical. Absorbing taxes to hold pricing is a lot easier when your markup is massive to begin with. Bikes and bike parts do not enjoy that sort of margin; its very unlikely that absorbing increased taxes without changing prices is doable for most bike companies. Especially since the industry as a whole is already struggling.

 

[Mr. Coffee]

It is kind of the end of cycling season here unless you are hardcore or deranged. What I'm noticing at bike shops is a lot of inventory they are trying to clear out. In some cases I've seen 2022 and 2023 models, and I imagine that most shops have a warehouse full of bikes that they are trying to get rid of. It seems there were more mid range and higher end bikes than starter models, though.

What that tells me is that if you shop around and aren't super picky you'll probably be able to get a nice e-bike at pre-tariff prices for quite a while.

 

[Jeremy McCreary]

It is kind of the end of cycling season here unless you are hardcore or deranged. What I'm noticing at bike shops is a lot of inventory they are trying to clear out. In some cases I've seen 2022 and 2023 models, and I imagine that most shops have a warehouse full of bikes that they are trying to get rid of. It seems there were more mid range and higher end bikes than starter models, though.

What that tells me is that if you shop around and aren't super picky you'll probably be able to get a nice e-bike at pre-tariff prices for quite a while.

Supporting data point: The Specialized Vado SL 5.0 EQ I bought 2 months ago (September, 2024) turned out to be a 2022. The frame (maybe more) was made in Vietnam. Still the latest (Gen 2) iteration, though.

Tech support said that the battery was stored in a "dormant" state in the warehouse and hadn't aged (with time alone) the way batteries in service do. Not sure I believe that, but still lots I don't know about ebike batteries.

 

[Roamers]

Bikes and bike parts do not enjoy that sort of margin; its very unlikely that absorbing increased taxes without changing prices is doable for most bike companies.

Some really quick searching indicates this will be a bigger problem for less expensive brands (China as a supplier); which is the intent of higher tariffs on Chinese products. I don't see it as an issue for Gazelle.

I just looked at components for the electrical system for our van I'm buying. None made in China. The Chinese copycat parts are about 75% of the price on Amazon; for the record, there is a difference in the quality.

Don't get me wrong, there is Chinese stuff that is ok because it doesn't really matter; not related to safety (Dewalt $5 drlll/tap)

The tariff thing will affect individuals differently; no big deal for us. If there were big general tariffs on Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico I'd be disappointed.

 

[m@Robertson]

At what point does Ebike manufacturing look at moving to America.

The last round of China tariffs created a whole lot of Vietnamese bike parts manufacturing capacity. You'll see more of that I expect. You have to understand just how expensive and high end USA made bike parts are - the few that exist. American bike parts are craftsman-level manufacture. My Chumba Ursa Major frame cost me US$750. And that was half-price on clearance. So... $1500 for just a chromoly frame. Go to Lynskey and look at frame prices.

Then go to White and see what a USA made freewheel costs. Just a freewheel. $150-plus for a single-gear freewheel. $150 for a headset. Cranksets are all $300+. Hubs $400 a pop.

My Colorado-made Guerilla Gravity enduro bike with its MRP Ribbon fork (also a USA product) was about $4600 before I got into the motor stuff... and it had nowhere near 55% USA content since most bike parts do not exist if you want them made here.

Want a suspension fork? A Wren Inverted is going to run you about $700 at the low end if you are smart and buy from the factory, direct. Close to a grand if you buy from a reseller. A Colorado-made MRP Ribbon has an MSRP of $1250 but its on sale for only $750.

Want some hubs? Phil Wood cassette hubs go for around $475. The front hubs are a relative bargain at only around $225. Spokes are $1.32 per spoke, plus another 12 cents per nipple. The spoke prices are actually only about 30% higher than the quality options from Switzerland (DT) or Belgium (Sapim).

People don't realize the USA bike manufacturing industry for the mass market simply does not exist.

 

[JRA]

Worth a read? https://forums.electricbikereview.c...-to-u-s-and-chinese-bike-manufacturing.25675/

 

[jabberwocky]

People don't realize the USA bike manufacturing industry for the mass market simply does not exist.

And likely never will, until automation gets to the point where replacing overseas manufacturing labor is doable with automation at similar prices. I've owned a lot of US made stuff over my cycling life; I had two Turner MTB frames, I've had several sets of Chris King hubs and headsets, I've had Phil Wood SS freewheels and so on. Its all very nice stuff, but extremely boutique, high end and expensive. A future where bikes are all made in the US is a future where bikes cost a lot of money and are mainly toys for the wealthy.

Some really quick searching indicates this will be a bigger problem for less expensive brands (China as a supplier); which is the intent of higher tariffs on Chinese products. I don't see it as an issue for Gazelle.

I just looked at components for the electrical system for our van I'm buying. None made in China. The Chinese copycat parts are about 75% of the price on Amazon; for the record, there is a difference in the quality.

Don't get me wrong, there is Chinese stuff that is ok because it doesn't really matter; not related to safety (Dewalt $5 drlll/tap)

The tariff thing will affect individuals differently; no big deal for us. If there were big general tariffs on Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Mexico I'd be disappointed.

China is capable of making crap or making really top quality stuff. I collect pocketknives and some of the nicest stuff out there are the chinese brands. Their machining and tolerances are often better than even the best US based makers.

You're likely incorrect about it being an issue for Gazelle. At least the half the component list on Gazelle bikes is manufactured in Asia. Even if they assemble in the Netherlands, they are sourcing parts extensively from companies that manufacture in Asia. Which loops back to the interconnected nature of all this. Just because a company is EU or US based and manufactures some stuff there, doesn't mean that tarriffs won't affect their pricing. I don't think any bike manufacturer assembles an entire bike with zero china made parts. Its almost impossible to do.

 

[PedalUma]

People don't realize the USA bike manufacturing industry for the mass market simply does not exist.

Yes, you can by a handmade in the USA frame set from Litespeed for $2,500. Down the street from me is White Industries. They make bike parts. A hub costs $450. Bikes generally need two hubs. Want some rims to go with them? That is $1200 each. After a while it begins to add up by the time you put the whole bike together. But where then will you get the motor, battery, and display?

New Aventon Pace 500's are on sale this week for $1,500 at your local family owned bike shop.

Oh, China's industrial capacity is six times that of North America and Europe's combined. It is Santa's workshop. Next Christmas 2025, there will be no toys under the tree unless you make them out of wood.

 

[Roamers]

At least the half the component list on Gazelle bikes is manufactured in Asia

Lots of countries in Asia besides China. Do you think a Netherland mfg'd bike will get China tarriffs applied to it when imported to US if it has China purchased components?

 

[mschwett]

Lots of countries in Asia besides China. Do you think a Netherland mfg'd bike will get China tarriffs applied to it when imported to US if it has China purchased components?

most likely, depending on the rules of origin. just putting together a bunch of parts in one place does not make it manufactured in that place.

the most expensive parts of an e-bike are probably the battery, then motor, then frame. for a high end non-e bike it would probably be the frame, then the groupset, then the wheels. if you import $1000 worth of parts into the netherlands from china, spend $500 of dutch labor assembling it, and sell it for $2000, it’s likely going to get tariff’d as originating in china.

 

[Roamers]

depending on the rules of origin. just putting together a bunch of parts in one place does not make it manufactured in that place.

I agree. I was a member of the team that determined "content %" for US government and export sales. Don't recall who wanted which way, but I recall % by $ and % by weight. I also remember Manufactured in USA and Assembled in USA terminology.

 

[kevinmccune]

What did Ronald Regan think about free trade and the elimination of tariffs? What about when your bike shop needs a part that is not made around here? And will never be made around here?

boy the langauge isnt like that now,all you hear now from the whitehouse is a bunch of woke garbage.which is destroying our nation as surely as the roman empire fell( alas babylon!)

 

[jabberwocky]

Lots of countries in Asia besides China. Do you think a Netherland mfg'd bike will get China tarriffs applied to it when imported to US if it has China purchased components?

Nobody really has any idea what the magic hate ball that will be setting policy for the forseeable future is going to land on, but all indications are that they intend on large tarriffs. I wouldn't bet on them limiting them to only China. I personally expect pretty much everything cycling to get a lot more expensive.