The Tariff Questions?

Roamers said:
Lots of countries in Asia besides China. Do you think a Netherland mfg'd bike will get China tarriffs applied to it when imported to US if it has China purchased components?
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Dutch frames are all made in China. By 'all' I mean by five decimal nines. 99.99999. Yes, some farmer with welding skills may make a frame, or a couple of custom builders. Nothing for the vast majority. I have a feel and eye for these things. Even British Pashley has Chinese frames, maybe they weld one part and then paint them, but I doubt it. Campy is also made in China. Just like 'Italian' leather designer handbags. It could be that local custom builds and conversions will make a comeback with some minor final Mexican assembly of components like motors.
 
kevinmccune said:
woke garbage
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Awoken people are aware. It is the sleepy who are a danger. Once awoken there is no putting that cat back in the bag. Leading an active productive simple life is a key to happiness. Happiness! The people of the richest country ever at its highest power with a thriving economy are the least happy people on the planet ever and the most fearful. Watch some of these videos and tell me she is not happy and satisfied in her chosen life. She is awake.

𝐕𝐢𝐞𝐭𝐧𝐚𝐦 𝐒𝐡𝐢𝐡𝐘𝐢​

 
Roamers said:
That was pretty negative!

He campaigned on 60% China, 20% eveywhere else; I don't doubt those numbers. Also has threatened a few US companies directly with heavy tariffs on stuff moved to Mexico for manufacture.

I recall him saying Deere Tractors; either he mis-spoke or just wanted to sound tough. Deere doesn't manufacture Tractors in Mexico. Just components, and soon some small construction equipment.
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Deere manufactures in a number of countries, though I didn’t dig far enough to determine what is produced or where it’s sold.

Personally, I’m not opposed to using tariffs in a strategic manner. After all, we’re essentially funding China’s military. Also, if tariff revenue is used to offset income tax cuts (no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and no tax on Social Security), the effect on consumers would be at least partially negated. And don’t tell me that eliminating the tax on social security will make it go broke sooner…that tax money goes to the general fund, not the SS trust fund.
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rayray said:
Deere manufactures in a number of countries, though I didn’t dig far enough to determine what is produced or where it’s sold.
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He only mentioned the Mexico stuff in his pre-election speech (probably because there were recent announcements.)

With a few exceptions, components come from many countries (many not mfg'd in Deere facility). There are a few tractors that are imported from Germany. Most full machines are for use in the region they are manufactured in.
 
We can assume that Deere does not make chips (although the stuff they make can be used to harvest stuff that makes chips). China currently imports US agg products such as soy, rice, and pork. Red state farmers will lose in a trade war. So, corporate hedge funds can buy them up pennies on the dollar before ending the trade wars.
 
Roamers said:
Which of those is a bad thing, and why?
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Because it's not just that. It's looking like a default/across the board/world wide tariff of minimum 10%. And perhaps more for China (maybe others).
Your prices are going to go up, which I don't think most people wanted or voted for (even though that is exactly what they unwittingly voted for).
 
There are a lot of ways to solve those same problems without using tariffs.

Which is why I pointed out that the effects will depend a lot on what the objectives really are. So far that isn't clear to me.

If you want/need to screw over a specific country the US government can lock them out of the international payments system, make it difficult to impossible to get insurance for their exports, and make it (again) difficult to impossible to get financing and a letter of credit for their exports. There are a lot of dials on the machine.
 
DaveMatthews said:
Your prices are going to go up, which I don't think most people wanted or voted for (even though that is exactly what they unwittingly voted for).
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Look at the benefit: some would not be able to keep up with one job, so they'll need 2 or more. When the mass deportations happen, a lot of jobs will need to be filled; there will be needy people to fill those jobs. Prices will go up because of the increased labor costs. The cycle continues until equilibrium is reached.
 
Roamers said:
... When the mass deportations happen, a lot of jobs will need to be filled ...
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You had better fervently pray that those mass deportations do not happen. Forty percent of the people working in the US agriculture sector are undocumented. People will need to eat while this mess gets sorted out.

It will take many months, and more probably years, to replace the deported people with people able and willing to do those jobs. Some of those jobs are not low-skilled jobs either. In the meantime people have to eat. What will they eat?

Who are we even kidding here? Best guesses are there around 13 million undocumented people in the country. But the error bars on that number are pretty large. If you make generously optimistic assumptions we can have all state and local law enforcement, all of federal law enforcement, and all of the military (including reserves and national guard) that would be suitable for that kind of work assigned to do nothing but mass deportations. That would be something under 2 million people. Probably under 1 million in practice.

That isn't even enough to guard 13 million people in a prison. It isn't remotely enough to arrest and deport that many people.

Keep in mind that those people we'd have doing the deporting have other jobs. And those jobs wouldn't be getting done while this stupidity is going on.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
You had better fervently pray that those mass deportations do not happen. Forty percent of the people working in the US agriculture sector are undocumented. People will need to eat while this mess gets sorted out.
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Construction as well. I work in construction and lots of builders and subs are various flavors of immigrant (from 1st generation citizen to green card holders to work permits to undocumented). Unemployment in that sector has been basically non-existent since covid. If you wanted a job in construction, it has been there for the asking. Everyone I work with is desperate to hire, to the point where referral bonuses for some companies are 4-5 figures if you recommend a qualified applicant.

You wanna deport all those people, labor pricing for construction will go through the roof. And thats compared to todays pricing, which is already through the roof compared to 2019 because of demand that far outstrips labor supply. Years to sort out is incredibly optimistic; construction and trades aren't college degree jobs but they are skilled labor, so losing a huge chunk of the workforce will not only mean that jobs aren't able to be done, but also mean that the people you need to train new employees aren't here to do so.

This idea that deporting huge number of immigrants will be some windfall for jobs is bizarre. I mean, you want to work in agriculture or construction, go fucking do it! Immigrants are not the ones stopping that from happening.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
You had better fervently pray that those mass deportations do not happen. Forty percent of the people working in the US agriculture sector are undocumented.
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Finding 15M+ illegals doesn't happen overnight. From what I've read/heard, the low hanging fruit and most desireable to eradicate are not on the farms.

jabberwocky said:
Construction as well. I work in construction and lots of builders and subs are various flavors of immigrant (from 1st generation citizen to green card holders to work permits to undocumented).
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I had a reroof a few years back. Condition of the contract was no illegals; I had a crew assigned that I did not question.

To be clear, I am not against immigrants; I am against illegals.

Time to switch this back to tarrifs.
 
kevinmccune said:
a lot of DAs judges and lawyers would love this,more prison construction,more 25-30k$ fees for handling and imprisoning these"illegals" a gold mine for these pricks and you don't need to build munitions to get on this gravy train!
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Roamers said:
What is the 2.5 world?

Skip the middleman; on a bus/plane and out.
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You have to hire people to build those prisons. Many of them might be undocumented. You have to also staff those prisons. During a period of record low unemployment.

Also, there aren't enough planes and buses to transport them. And it is an interesting question of where you transport them to: you can't just drop them off at the border because Mexico and Canada probably won't take them unless they are Canadian or Mexican citizens. Most undocumented folks aren't citizens of Canada or Mexico. So you'll have to fly them out on a relatively small fleet of transport aircraft that DHS has for that purpose.

Both the mass deportation and tariff proposals are wildly unrealistic. Attempting to implement either of them will cause an enormous amount of economic and social disruption and suffering for regular Americans. Attempting to do both at the same time would be unimaginably ugly.

@Roamers also contradicted himself because he said both that mass deportations will happen and then he said they wouldn't all at once.

Keep in mind that a lot of tariffed goods are also likely to be used in food production and distribution. My sincere hope is that the powers that be know better than to do this and will hopefully just do something symbolic on both fronts and declare victory. If they don't it will get terribly ugly. And keep in mind that if there are food riots chances are the people you'd need to keep order will be spread all over the country to the wrong places chasing undocumented people.
 
Roamers said:
I had a reroof a few years back. Condition of the contract was no illegals; I had a crew assigned that I did not question.

To be clear, I am not against immigrants; I am against illegals.
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I have no idea how you'd even check that as a client. Though I'm sure plenty of contractors would be happy to put that in a contract knowing you'd have a warm happy feeling about "no illegals" and then they'd hire whoever would do the job, which would probably include undocumented workers.
 
Mr. Coffee said:
@Roamers also contradicted himself because he said both that mass deportations will happen and then he said they wouldn't all at once.
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No contradiction. Mass implies large quantity not schedule; one plane at a time. Might need some bigger planes.
 
jabberwocky said:
I have no idea how you'd even check that as a client. Though I'm sure plenty of contractors would be happy to put that in a contract knowing you'd have a warm happy feeling about "no illegals" and then they'd hire whoever would do the job, which would probably include undocumented workers.
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I don't hire fly-by-nights. Both companies I had bid were established over 50 years. One got roof, other got windows. It's easy to judge the crew by meeting them. White, no accents, established for many years locally pretty good indicator. Not seasonal crews, work full-time year round.

There were several roofing crews in the neighborhood after the big hail storm that got me a new roof that I would not think of hiring.
 
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