LA Fires!

Large wooden decks are the worst. So is the canyon effect. It is nice to have a view down a canyon to the sea. It is also deadly. Any fire will create a chimney accelerating embers up under the deck.
 
You can still have a wood or metal-framed home that is resilient in the face of earthquakes but have the exterior be concrete, metal, vinyl, or stucco all of which are sufficiently fireproof to be as survivable as you are going to get.

There are also these really cool vents that are fire safe. I make do with screens over all of my vents. Although some of them melted in the 2021 burnover event -- for that matter, some of the window screens melted.

Yeah, that lawyers house on the seaside of the PCH was built like that and survived undamaged
 
The pillock that flew his drone into the air tanker, it seems that Dji have just dropped geofencing for America as well , so unless its some kind of special request dji drones can not be prevented from flying temporarily or continously from anywhere simpky by where they are flying.
It all seems very strange, that was quite a powerful feature for safety that even complete freedom fighters sort of agreed with.
And theyve just released the super cheap Flip which is a much larger Neo with foldable arms, and it has no geofencing, you'll see pallets of them in Costco.
Luckily it is very light 249gms, but its quite imposing and more likely to piss people off by the fact its weight allows it to be flown over people.

I know from first hand how these drones can go awol, I see trouble ahead.
 
Thoughtful, balanced, evidence-based look at residential development in California's fire-prone urban-wildland interface — home to the current Palisades and Eaton fires:


No simple causes or solutions here, folks. No simple "why didn't they do this or that". No simple villains.
 
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Watching a low drone flight over the entire area, it was surprising to see how many homes were untouched right next to completely gutted neighbours.

Quite a lot survived on the hills.

But so.many people will have to sell their land for buttons and walk away.
 
But so.many people will have to sell their land for buttons and walk away.
That ain't how insurance works.

Traditionally, after a loss, you had to rebuild a like kind and quality home at the original location in order to collect all available benefits under your insurance policy, although insurers in some situations have been willing to negotiate and allow a purchase instead of a rebuild.
 
No simple causes or solutions here, folks. No simple "why didn't they do this or that". No simple villains.
Meanwhile, yahoos are saying this tragedy is caused by California's poor forest management. Which ignores the fact that the currently burning parts of Los Angeles are not a forest. For that matter, 57% of the forest land in California is owned by the federal government.
 
Im referring to the uninsured, theres an awful lot of them, about 1500 I'm reading.

What do you think caused this devastation?
 
Around here dry conditions and wind can mean big brush fires that could become forest fires. One July 4th during a drought my BIL insisted on firing illegal rockets on his farm. Unable to talk him out of it, I stood by with a bucket of water and a pump sprayer, knowing it would probably be too little, too late. During another July 4 drought, the mayor fired illegal rockets that exploded over our houses.

One dry February, my BIL's electric fence started a fire. Standing grassy stuff from the year before would have gone up like gasoline, but the fire extinguished itself. Inside the fence, goats had eaten so much vegetation that the fire crept along, set fire to down wood here and there, and stopped. Outside, I'd bush-hogged a fire break 8 feet wide.

In southern New England, natives used set to forest fires before planting in the spring and after harvest in the fall. In fields, it destroyed weeds and seeds. It kept the woods open, both for easy walking and to support a large deer population. Because these fires were frequent, they weren't hot enough to threaten dwellings, covered in mats similar to thatch.

One July, I was among hundreds and maybe thousands who fought a fire in an Alaskan swamp. I didn't see signs of drought.
 
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What do you think caused this devastation?
  1. Historically natural fire in that area has a rate of return of about three years. That means that every location there should expect to be engulfed in fire every three years. If you put out the fires and make that period longer you get more vegetation, more fuel, and more intense fires when it inevitably burns.
  2. The climate there is mostly dry (well duh, it is a desert of sorts) punctuated by periods of pretty intense rainfall. The vegetation there is adapted to this climate and grows rapidly when there is water available.
  3. Manual fuel removal is very labor intensive and costs over $1000 per acre per year. And there are millions of acres that need that manual fuel reduction. Prescribed fire is slightly less expensive but goes with additional risks and complications.
  4. The climate and local topography generate periodic hot, dry, and intense winds out of the east that greatly exacerbate the intensity and spread of wildfire.
  5. The road network in many places is chaotic and many neighborhoods have only one entrance and exit. A lot more neighborhoods have relatively few for the number of homes.
  6. Steep, rough terrain plus that chaotic road network often mean that many places nearly physically adjacent are a thirty minute drive apart.
  7. Lots of people want to live there, so you end up with a very built out environment and homes packed at high density. This ends up being a problem because when your neighbor's house is fully involved the radiant heat from it can ignite your house even if you've done everything right.
  8. That population pressure means there is always more development at the wildland-urban interface.
 
If the hills and canyons were grazed much of the problem would be naturally eliminated. Only there would be a lot more mountain lions for the MTB'ers. And they would then require faster bikes.
A barking dog confronted the Pilgrim party that first landed on Cape Cod. An unseen native whistled and the dog withdrew. They came upon a road which they hoped would lead to a settlement. Instead, it led to a corral. The tracks were mostly deer tracks. Deer were so plentiful that when natives wanted venison, men and dogs would herd some into the corral. Farm dogs can learn to herd livestock but not hassle it otherwise. Dogs must have been important to keep deer out of 50-acre corn fields but must have known not to chase them around the woods. Dog urine would keep dangerous predators away.

Modern electric fence wire is rated at 1600 pounds or so and is stretched very tight. A modern charger delivers a painful shock that's too brief to ignite solid fuel. Depending on the terrain and the vegetation, sheep or goats may work better than cattle. There are 200-pound dogs who live among livestock and if they see or smell a predator, stalk and kill it. I once had to enter such a pasture to fill a trough. Fortunately, those enormous dogs were civilized.

I may have been in more danger when I watered a flock guarded by a burro. To protect livestock, a burro will go after a wolf, coyote, or rattlesnake on sight and probably kill it. I guess the burro didn't see me as a threat to the flock.

Livestock can reduce the danger of fire, and there's always a market for meat and leather. Bush-hogging at the end of the green season can make a firebreak. The necessary width would depend on the intensity of the fire and the possibility of blowing embers. Pastures and firebreaks could also help keep controlled burns under control.
 
Modern electric fence wire is rated at 1600 pounds or so and is stretched very tight. A modern charger delivers a painful shock that's too brief to ignite solid fuel.
If a fire is started by an electric fance, don't pee on it to put it out. Ask me how I know.
 
  1. Historically natural fire in that area has a rate of return of about three years. That means that every location there should expect to be engulfed in fire every three years. If you put out the fires and make that period longer you get more vegetation, more fuel, and more intense fires when it inevitably burns.
  2. The climate there is mostly dry (well duh, it is a desert of sorts) punctuated by periods of pretty intense rainfall. The vegetation there is adapted to this climate and grows rapidly when there is water available.
  3. Manual fuel removal is very labor intensive and costs over $1000 per acre per year. And there are millions of acres that need that manual fuel reduction. Prescribed fire is slightly less expensive but goes with additional risks and complications.
  4. The climate and local topography generate periodic hot, dry, and intense winds out of the east that greatly exacerbate the intensity and spread of wildfire.
  5. The road network in many places is chaotic and many neighborhoods have only one entrance and exit. A lot more neighborhoods have relatively few for the number of homes.
  6. Steep, rough terrain plus that chaotic road network often mean that many places nearly physically adjacent are a thirty minute drive apart.
  7. Lots of people want to live there, so you end up with a very built out environment and homes packed at high density. This ends up being a problem because when your neighbor's house is fully involved the radiant heat from it can ignite your house even if you've done everything right.
  8. That population pressure means there is always more development at the wildland-urban interface.
So who would you say is to blame for these fires taking so many homes?

Obviously I know who blames who, its hardly a secret where all the shouting is coming from.

Someone has signed off these builds and all the relevant ordinance, I'm not exactly being controversial here.
Everyone is fact checking everyone else trying to win internet arguments, but the place clearly did burn to the ground.

It has to be someones fault when it was so clearly going to happen.. and if it's no ones fault then its just going to happen again
and will be treated as some kind of sacrificial anode attached to the fallout of the Goldrush.
 
So who would you say is to blame for these fires taking so many homes?
I'm more familiar with what happens when the wind thing happens (sans flames) and have elected to not remove trees that would seriously damage my house when it's their turn to fall. Recent storm had 2 trees fall on a neighbor's house; other neighbor had 4 trees removed after that event. Surprised insurance company hasn't suggested some tree removal or loose insurance.

Although these fires appear to be a "perfect storm" event, from what I've watched with 20/20 hindsight, it appears there are several things homeowners can do to reduce the risk to their property.

Lots of blame to go around starting with homeowner.
 
There probably is some blame to be found, but I think it mght be best to look at this as a learning experience. Even with all that can/should be learned, I'd bet a million dollars codes and other regulations won't be adopted that will prevent something like this from ever happening again. People will look at new codes proposals and say, "Yeah, but I want to build the house I want there, with a deck and fabulous view," and at least some of them will do exactly that. In three years, or 80 years, there will be another wildfire (or earthquake or mudslide or something) that will destroy their house. Short of telling people they can't live there, there really isn't a damn thing that can be done to guarantee there won't be another similar, hopefully smaller, tragedy at some point.

I'm not saying that's the way it ought to be.

TT
 
So who would you say is to blame for these fires taking so many homes?
Honestly that is kind of a pointless question. How We Got Here took decades of mistakes and poor decisions made by lots of people. And like lots of poor decisions they seemed like reasonable things (or at least harmless things) to do at the time.

If you want one person to blame, I'd start with this jerk:

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You can snicker but hear me out.
  • That poster is lying to you. You can't prevent forest fires.
  • An unspoken assumption is that wildfire is a Bad Thing. The fact is that all wildlands are at least somewhat adapted to and at least somewhat dependent on fire for their continued existence. SoCal's environment is an extreme example of a highly fire-adapted region.
  • Another assumption is that we can successfully and safely fight and engage any fire. That is another lie.
The fact of the matter was all of the Smokey the Bear propaganda basically kicked the can down the road. We should have had an adult conversation about what it would take to exist in these fire-prone environments before any of us here were even born. We still aren't having that conversation. Until we do we can expect more of the same.
 
So who would you say is to blame for these fires taking so many homes?
In Vermont I lived in a 19th Century house with a slate roof. It was worthwhile when homes were heated with fireplaces that could cause chimney fires. Tile roofs are also fireproof, but I'm sure they're expensive.

With the coming of railroads and farms to the midwest in the 19th Century, prairie fires became much less severe. Farms and railroads served as firebreaks. A century ago, some of California's overgrown land may have been used for crops or grazing. Since then, small farms have become less common. There were still lots of horse-drawn vehicles, and horses need rangeland.

A century ago, a household might have a tethered goat to maintain clear ground, which helped keep prowlers, vermin, and fire away. Nowadays, many people have wooden fences and conifer hedges 20 feet high close to houses. They could produce enough radiant heat to ignite a house.
 
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